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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2016 16:35:23 GMT -5
Yeah I really think Benintendi is being slightly overvalued here- Bagwell was one of the best hitters of his generation. I've never seen anyone project Benintendi to be that good, and I would see it as being a little detached from reality to declare now that trading him for anyone short of Kershaw or Bumgarner would be "Bagwell 2.0." I'm not saying he should be dealt, certainly not for a rental reliever, nor do I think we should part with him lightly. But the reality is that you have to give up talent to get it, and I would 100% build a deal for Quintana around him, or one of the Mets young arms (not Harvey) or in theory possibly even Jose Fernandez. We're not talking about Larry Andersen here. And for what it's worth, the reason I'd think about Benintendi at least over Espinoza is that Espinoza is the best pitching prospect to come through the system in I don't know how long, and by the general consensus has the highest ceiling in the system. If I thought Devers could bring the same return, I would say he should be the one to go, but I think realistically, right now it would be between AB and Moncada, and I prefer Moncada because he seems like he has a higher ceiling with a comparable floor Not picking on you, but there are two related points I've made over and over again that make Benintendi a complete untouchable. 1) There is a huge shortage of OFers with a bat good enough to play in a corner. As a result, LF has become a garbage position -- in case you didn't notice with Holt (a 2B/SS), Swihart (a C), Young (with a career 86 wRC+ versus RHP) all being considered acceptable alternatives. 19 of the current 30 starting LFers can play a more difficult position. Fewer innings are played by people you can identify as "regular LFers" than any other position, including catcher. 2) Benintendi is nearly ready to fill our hole in LF. He may well be ready now, although it would be unwise to test that theory. The downgrade in value from Benintendi to the alternatives is simply much larger than any upgrade you could get in the rotation. Here's the math. Replace your worst starter with someone league-average. Which is f-ing trivial. You can sign Andrew Cashner as a FA this winter, for instance. Now, which would you rather have: The upgrade from Cashner, who is OK, to Quintana? Or the upgrade from the trainwreck we've had in LF this year to Benintendi? He is about to fix the team's gaping hole. What sense does it make to trade him? None.
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Post by cba82 on Jul 1, 2016 16:40:29 GMT -5
"He is about to fix the team's gaping hole. What sense does it make to trade him? None." -- Agreed. Unfortunately, this is the stupid time of year. Let's hope DD resists the temptation.
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 241
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Post by pd on Jul 1, 2016 23:39:40 GMT -5
Beni's a starting pitcher?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2016 1:12:26 GMT -5
Beni's a starting pitcher? Since we're talking about a guy who's in AA, I'm obviously talking long-term. We have numerous starting pitchers who were projected to be OK to good who have all been terrible so far this year to various incomprehensible degrees (plus Wilkinson who likely gets his chance next). It remains realistic to think that a couple of them will step up and be OK, especially going forward through 2017. In fact, I'll still bet on E-Rod being a top of the rotation starter. Hence, not a gaping hole. There's no one on the radar who projects to be a first-division starter in LF other than Benintendi and Moncada, and moving the latter from the 3rd toughest position to the second easiest would be premature.
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 241
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Post by pd on Jul 2, 2016 8:44:25 GMT -5
Beni's a starting pitcher? Since we're talking about a guy who's in AA, I'm obviously talking long-term. We have numerous starting pitchers who were projected to be OK to good who have all been terrible so far this year to various incomprehensible degrees (plus Wilkinson who likely gets his chance next). It remains realistic to think that a couple of them will step up and be OK, especially going forward through 2017. In fact, I'll still bet on E-Rod being a top of the rotation starter. Hence, not a gaping hole. There's no one on the radar who projects to be a first-division starter in LF other than Benintendi and Moncada, and moving the latter from the 3rd toughest position to the second easiest would be premature. Not obviously, since the LF issue is current, and there's been lots of speculation about bringing him up this year. If we're talking long term, 3B, 1B, and DH all are positions of uncertainty, along with of course pitching. I'm not seeing a lot of pitching solutions in the minors currently, so I think its pretty reasonable to say that's our number one issue. Trading Beni for quality pitching makes sense to me.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 2, 2016 18:59:28 GMT -5
I wonder how soon AAA is in Benintendi's future?
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 2, 2016 19:14:08 GMT -5
Hopefully he never sees Pawtucket
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,386
Member is Online
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Post by radiohix on Jul 2, 2016 19:43:23 GMT -5
Hopefully he never sees Pawtucket He'll come to visit when Gwinnet plays Pawtucket.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2016 7:34:40 GMT -5
Yeah I really think Benintendi is being slightly overvalued here- Bagwell was one of the best hitters of his generation. I've never seen anyone project Benintendi to be that good, and I would see it as being a little detached from reality to declare now that trading him for anyone short of Kershaw or Bumgarner would be "Bagwell 2.0." I'm not saying he should be dealt, certainly not for a rental reliever, nor do I think we should part with him lightly. But the reality is that you have to give up talent to get it, and I would 100% build a deal for Quintana around him, or one of the Mets young arms (not Harvey) or in theory possibly even Jose Fernandez. We're not talking about Larry Andersen here. And for what it's worth, the reason I'd think about Benintendi at least over Espinoza is that Espinoza is the best pitching prospect to come through the system in I don't know how long, and by the general consensus has the highest ceiling in the system. If I thought Devers could bring the same return, I would say he should be the one to go, but I think realistically, right now it would be between AB and Moncada, and I prefer Moncada because he seems like he has a higher ceiling with a comparable floor Not picking on you, but there are two related points I've made over and over again that make Benintendi a complete untouchable. 1) There is a huge shortage of OFers with a bat good enough to play in a corner. As a result, LF has become a garbage position -- in case you didn't notice with Holt (a 2B/SS), Swihart (a C), Young (with a career 86 wRC+ versus RHP) all being considered acceptable alternatives. 19 of the current 30 starting LFers can play a more difficult position. Fewer innings are played by people you can identify as "regular LFers" than any other position, including catcher. 2) Benintendi is nearly ready to fill our hole in LF. He may well be ready now, although it would be unwise to test that theory. The downgrade in value from Benintendi to the alternatives is simply much larger than any upgrade you could get in the rotation. Here's the math. Replace your worst starter with someone league-average. Which is f-ing trivial. You can sign Andrew Cashner as a FA this winter, for instance. Now, which would you rather have: The upgrade from Cashner, who is OK, to Quintana? Or the upgrade from the trainwreck we've had in LF this year to Benintendi? He is about to fix the team's gaping hole. What sense does it make to trade him? None. I really hope you're right. How confident are you they don't trade Benintendi? Im thinking of catching a game in Portland the weekend of July 23rd.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 3, 2016 11:37:20 GMT -5
Not picking on you, but there are two related points I've made over and over again that make Benintendi a complete untouchable. 1) There is a huge shortage of OFers with a bat good enough to play in a corner. As a result, LF has become a garbage position -- in case you didn't notice with Holt (a 2B/SS), Swihart (a C), Young (with a career 86 wRC+ versus RHP) all being considered acceptable alternatives. 19 of the current 30 starting LFers can play a more difficult position. Fewer innings are played by people you can identify as "regular LFers" than any other position, including catcher. 2) Benintendi is nearly ready to fill our hole in LF. He may well be ready now, although it would be unwise to test that theory. The downgrade in value from Benintendi to the alternatives is simply much larger than any upgrade you could get in the rotation. Here's the math. Replace your worst starter with someone league-average. Which is f-ing trivial. You can sign Andrew Cashner as a FA this winter, for instance. Now, which would you rather have: The upgrade from Cashner, who is OK, to Quintana? Or the upgrade from the trainwreck we've had in LF this year to Benintendi? He is about to fix the team's gaping hole. What sense does it make to trade him? None. I really hope you're right. How confident are you they don't trade Benintendi? Im thinking of catching a game in Portland the weekend of July 23rd. Even if Benintendi isn't traded, I don't know that he'll stll be in Portland on the 23rd. I'd expect him to go to Pawtucket around 8/1, but wouldn't be at all surprised to see it happen sooner. That said, have you been to Hadlock? Don't skip it just because the player you want to see isn't there. Great place to catch a game. Plus, Moncada's still going to be there.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2016 11:45:33 GMT -5
I really hope you're right. How confident are you they don't trade Benintendi? Im thinking of catching a game in Portland the weekend of July 23rd. Even if Benintendi isn't traded, I don't know that he'll stll be in Portland on the 23rd. I'd expect him to go to Pawtucket around 8/1, but wouldn't be at all surprised to see it happen sooner. That said, have you been to Hadlock? Don't skip it just because the player you want to see isn't there. Great place to catch a game. Plus, Moncada's still going to be there. Thanks for the timing estimate - I will still go regardless but really want to see Benintendi. I was trying to go this weekend but it just isn't working out scheduling wise. I live in Boston and my folks place (where I grew up) is right near Portland. Its a pretty sweet deal! My father is a big baseball fan and I try to get to Hadlock at least once a year. I actually saw a Papelbon/Lester doubleheader in Portland back when I was in high school, that was really fun.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 3, 2016 15:21:10 GMT -5
Obtaining top starting pitching just seems to be impossible in general when we sign expensive pitcher after expensive pitcher and still come up near league bottom for starting pitching. The cost in trade value is also unbelievably expensive. It's frustrating as hell. Ergo, the solution is drafting more pitchers to me. I know people say draft for the players and not the position but the scarcity and value of starting pitching tells me to keep rolling the dice with pitching draft picks and hire the absolute best development staff you can. Not saying draft all pitchers but I would skew the top picks more towards pitching. It is the essential tool for making every team a real contender. The prime commodity.
All that said, I still would have drafted Beni when we had the chance. He was such a solid pick it was obvious.
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 3, 2016 22:13:30 GMT -5
There is a long way to go but the start of this kids career is full of promise.
Dombrowski traded one big chip in Margot. I don't think he is that foolish to trade a second. The backlash would be immense.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 3, 2016 22:31:00 GMT -5
There is a long way to go but the start of this kids career is full of promise. Dombrowski traded one big chip in Margot. I don't think he is that foolish to trade a second. The backlash would be immense. The backlash would be immense.....on this site. That's about it. Just because you follow the farm system, that doesn't mean the average fan does. I actually "think" the sox fans follow the farm more than most and I still don't think you'd hear a lot of complaining outside of here. I also consider Benintendi in a different class than Margot. Margot was that second level prospect that has to be included in any trade of significance. Benintendi is a true blue chip type of prospect that rarely gets traded.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 4, 2016 13:57:34 GMT -5
DD traded Randy Johnson for Mark Langston. No one is safe. No one.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 4, 2016 14:01:32 GMT -5
DD traded Randy Johnson for Mark Langston. No one is safe. No one. You don't think that DD is capable of learning from 27 years of experience?
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 4, 2016 14:03:56 GMT -5
Mark Langston was 1989's equivalent of Chris Sale. And Randy Johnson couldn't throw strikes.
EDIT: Today's closest equivalent that I can think of would be is the Diamondbacks pulled off Sale for Archie Bradley, and Bradley went on to be one of the Top 20 pitchers ever. Langston-for-Johnson was very, very sensible
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 4, 2016 14:28:16 GMT -5
I'm up for Owens to the ChiSox for Sale. Anyone with me? I'd even throw in Ball and Chavis if I had to.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 4, 2016 14:36:37 GMT -5
Plus, Langston won 105 more games and was worth 31 bWAR after the deal. If he hadn't basically hit the wall at 32 he would've had a pretty strong Hall of Fame case himself.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 4, 2016 15:10:38 GMT -5
Plus, Langston won 105 more games and was worth 31 bWAR after the deal. If he hadn't basically hit the wall at 32 he would've had a pretty strong Hall of Fame case himself. But none of that for DD's team. Langston was only to be a rental. Repeat: no one is safe.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 4, 2016 16:06:36 GMT -5
And then he traded nothing for Cabrera and Scherzer...
I seriously don't think anything he has done in his past has anything to do with what trades he makes or doesn't make now. The game has changed way too much and the asking prices are way too insane. Plus the best players are almost never available to trade for because no team is ever forced to trade away stars anymore.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 4, 2016 16:16:59 GMT -5
Obtaining top starting pitching just seems to be impossible in general when we sign expensive pitcher after expensive pitcher and still come up near league bottom for starting pitching. The cost in trade value is also unbelievably expensive. It's frustrating as hell. Ergo, the solution is drafting more pitchers to me. I know people say draft for the players and not the position but the scarcity and value of starting pitching tells me to keep rolling the dice with pitching draft picks and hire the absolute best development staff you can. Not saying draft all pitchers but I would skew the top picks more towards pitching. It is the essential tool for making every team a real contender. The prime commodity. All that said, I still would have drafted Beni when we had the chance. He was such a solid pick it was obvious. The strategy behind picking the top position player available is that you can trade that player later for the pitching you need. Pitching prospects have a higher bust rate, and take longer to develop. If a pitching prospect does develop into an ace, it's like hitting the jackpot at a casino slot machine. As much as I would hate to see Benny go (and I actually think Devers and Moncada will go instead), that's what any team needs to do, who wants to make a run at a championship, when it hasn't been lucky enough to hit the ace pitcher jackpot yet.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 4, 2016 16:29:14 GMT -5
Benintendi' swing and timing are getting better every game he plays at Portland.
He appears to have a sweet spot and when pitches enter it he can really crush those pitches.
What he is starting to learn however is how to hit pitches outside his comfort zone based on where they are pitched.
The net result is more solid contact and less dribblers.
I can not for the life of me see how dombrowski could entertain offers for this kid unless we get a young cost controlled #1 type stuff pitcher in return.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 4, 2016 17:46:37 GMT -5
Plus, Langston won 105 more games and was worth 31 bWAR after the deal. If he hadn't basically hit the wall at 32 he would've had a pretty strong Hall of Fame case himself. But none of that for DD's team. Langston was only to be a rental. Repeat: no one is safe. True. Langston did have a 4.9 WAR in 173 innings for Montreal, and the Expos got Rondell White and Gabe White as compensation picks when they couldn't resign him. The Randy Johnson example is bad, because he really wasn't a a great prospect.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 4, 2016 18:17:40 GMT -5
But none of that for DD's team. Langston was only to be a rental. Repeat: no one is safe. True. Langston did have a 4.9 WAR in 173 innings for Montreal, and the Expos got Rondell White and Gabe White as compensation picks when they couldn't resign him. The Randy Johnson example is bad, because he really wasn't a a great prospect. But he was a great prospect. One who became a great MLB player. Perhaps you meant he wasn't a highly thought of prospect — a somewhat different argument. And Jeff Bagwell didn't hit homers. I don't know how well RJ was thought of in the industry in 1989 and I doubt you know either. I thought I read somewhere that he was the 2nd rated prospect in his organization, but I might easily have misremembered. Either way, a mistake like this shows a lack of imagination on DD's , a necessity for a leader of any organization. To a previous poster: Yes, maybe he's improved since then. One can hope.
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