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Is Rich over the Hill?
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2015 17:35:09 GMT -5
Note that his regular and sidearm pitches break very differently ...
First start:
57 fastballs 46 curves 6 sliders
Second start:
44 fastballs 37 curves 16 changeups 4 sliders 4 sideram curves 1 slow curve 1 weird slow changeup
Third start:
58 fastballs 37 curves 10 changeups 4 sidearm curves 3 sidearm fastballs 2 sliders 2 slow curves
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 26, 2015 19:23:12 GMT -5
Talk about a sopbisticated pitch mix. The confident way he handled himself, plus an ability to vary his pitches much more than most. thank you Eric, suggests other teams will have a tough time adjusting to him as a starter. With the Sox pitching depth, assuming it is not traded away, Rich Hill is presenting Dave and Mike with an invitation to ride this savvy ol' horse 'til it can't run anymore. Let's see what happens with his final start against another good hitting team, and how he does in ST. I think the Sox (and Rich) were in the right place/right time. Sign the man.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 26, 2015 22:13:25 GMT -5
1yr, $2M guaranteed with incentives structured so if he started and gave them 150 or more innings he can make a max of $12M and if he goes to the pen and appeared more than 45 times he makes $5M total. All pending a physical of course.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 26, 2015 22:24:29 GMT -5
I think it is safe to say Hill is going to go for the biggest guaranteed money he can get, question is will any team offer him that 2nd year??
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 27, 2015 8:31:03 GMT -5
Let's get real. Hill has been in the majors for 11 years, and he has all of 500 innings under his belt. He's gone over 100 innings once, over 50 just three times. The 23 he's put in with the Sox this time around ranks fifth in that list, right below the 23.2 he put up in his rookie year. His stuff is very good, it always has been. I'd like to see the team make him an offer. But in no way should he be promised a starting pitching spot. His track record is one of endless disappointment. Maybe he's past all that, but you'd be crazy as a GM to bet on it. Super old, hurt a billion times before, and he's thrown 42.8% breaking balls during his run this year. This isn't a guy emerging, it's a guy going out in a blaze of glory. Good for him, and hopefully he's earned a nice little payday from some team with nothing in the rotation, but it's not something the Red Sox need to be investing in.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Sept 27, 2015 9:21:35 GMT -5
Pitchers can reinvent themselves. I say sign the guy and give him a chance to make the team in ST.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2015 9:08:25 GMT -5
There is obviously no downside to a minor league deal. Issue is whether he has pitched well enough to get an MLB deal.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2015 9:13:18 GMT -5
There is obviously no downside to a minor league deal. Issue is whether he has pitched well enough to get an MLB deal. He absolutely has-- there's no question in my mind that he gets at least a league-minimum MLB offer from somebody, and maybe a bit more than that (e.g., $2m guaranteed with significant incentives). Earlier in his career, he showed a preference for staying in Boston ( his daughter was being treated at MGH, I think [ADD: his son was indeed being treated at MGH, but he passed away in March 2014]), but I'm not sure if that's still true since this next contract could be his last.
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Post by p23w on Sept 28, 2015 14:12:51 GMT -5
There is obviously no downside to a minor league deal. Issue is whether he has pitched well enough to get an MLB deal. Doubt Hill would sign a minor league deal. Why should he? Given his versatility (start or relieve) I am pretty sure Hill will get a MLB contract offer. IMO, a guy who throws a 116 pitch CG shut out is going to get more than just one offer. Question is from whom and for how much. If he wants to stay, I am all in favor of signing him.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 29, 2015 9:51:12 GMT -5
If Jamie Moyer is a Hall of Famer, Rich Hill can be one too!
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 29, 2015 12:10:58 GMT -5
I would rather think that Hill is over the Hump.
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 99
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Post by hank on Oct 1, 2015 11:47:56 GMT -5
Ask yourself "if I had a game I needed to win tomorrow, who would I rather start, Rich Hill or Wade Miley"? To me it's Hill. I think he's going to stay healthy too. That new 3/4 arm slot is lower stress, it's like the way Walter Johnson threw when he was occasionally pitching both ends of a double header. Hill looks free and easy out there and he's throwing a ton of strikes. And if/when he does put it together for a full season it will be the best story in MLB.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2015 12:06:23 GMT -5
One issue I have with Hill is that people are penciling him into the pen and then using him as a depth starter. I don't know how that logistically would work without options and without a minor league contract. You need time to stretch out and he wouldn't be able to be sent to the minors without a phantom DL, which doesn't really let a pitcher stretch out much. That makes it a little more complicated for me.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 1, 2015 12:20:18 GMT -5
I just can't see the Red Sox as being the best opportunity for Hill. I think there will be some team with nothing to lose (Phillies as an example) and a back of the rotation spot up for grabs, who would love to add a cheap starter who can build some trade value during the year. I think we have too many guys vying for the rotation even before any acquisitions to be an attractive team for Hill.
That being said, I do hope we sign him to a major league deal. Give him an opportunity to start in spring training and if they doesn't work out he's a bullpen guy. And if he's pitching like he has been, you make a spot for him in the rotation (hopefully without having to trade a guy)
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Post by p23w on Oct 1, 2015 13:00:32 GMT -5
Looking at Hill's numbers for 2015 provides some insight. He began as a starter. That lasted for 3 starts then was picked up by the Nationals and used almost exclusively as a reliever. The Sox acquired him and used him as a starter. Three different organizations, four teams, two job descriptions. He was successful at both jobs at each level. What I intuit from this is that Rich Hill is both flexible in his approach and has a veteran's poise. He appears unflappable. He has pitched approximately 90 innings this year. My contention is if Rich Hill can pitch 90 innings for the Red Sox in 2016 with the same success as he had in 2015, than he would be an extremely valuable asset to the Red Sox roster. Finally there is the benefit of his veteran presence to a young staff. I don't get that sense from Buchholz (did with Lester).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 1, 2015 13:24:46 GMT -5
That's not correct actually. He started the year with Syracuse pitching as a typical reliever and was released in June. After apparently building his arm strength up in July, he made two starts with Long Island in early August before the Red Sox signed him.
As great as he's pitched, if I'm an MLB club, 10 starts by a 35-year-old after he'd been pitching in relief for 4 years don't give me confidence that he can handle a starter's workload over an entire season. It'll be very interesting to see what his market looks like this offseason.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Oct 1, 2015 19:05:25 GMT -5
... Finally there is the benefit of his veteran presence to a young staff. I don't get that sense from Buchholz (did with Lester). Why is this?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 1, 2015 19:20:31 GMT -5
... Finally there is the benefit of his veteran presence to a young staff. I don't get that sense from Buchholz (did with Lester). Why is this? Because Buchholz is very quiet doesn't mean he can't provide quiet leadership to the kids (and they are all in their 20's). He has been active in talking with them one on one and in small groups in the dugout. He was the key guy in getting the rookies their hazing outfits. He is generous with his time, as sbown by his community work, and resources. I suspect there is alot we don't know about. Now, Buch + Hill, another quiet type, would be a great leader combo.
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Post by p23w on Oct 1, 2015 22:17:43 GMT -5
That's not correct actually. He started the year with Syracuse pitching as a typical reliever and was released in June. After apparently building his arm strength up in July, he made two starts with Long Island in early August before the Red Sox signed him. As great as he's pitched, if I'm an MLB club, 10 starts by a 35-year-old after he'd been pitching in relief for 4 years don't give me confidence that he can handle a starter's workload over an entire season. It'll be very interesting to see what his market looks like this offseason. Never said Hill would/could handle a starters workload over an entire season. I was focusing on quality IP. Any MLB would be interested in 90+ quality IP. One doesn't just "build ip arm strength" after making 25 relief appearances. Arm strength is not the issue. Quality IP is. Sox paid Craig Breslow $2M this year for 60IP of dubious quality on the heels of spending $3.8M for 54 downright crappy IP the previous year. Sox management would be negligent if they were NOT to sign Hill. Adding Hill and subtracting Breslow from the roster is a no brainer.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 2, 2015 9:39:16 GMT -5
That's not correct actually. He started the year with Syracuse pitching as a typical reliever and was released in June. After apparently building his arm strength up in July, he made two starts with Long Island in early August before the Red Sox signed him. As great as he's pitched, if I'm an MLB club, 10 starts by a 35-year-old after he'd been pitching in relief for 4 years don't give me confidence that he can handle a starter's workload over an entire season. It'll be very interesting to see what his market looks like this offseason. Never said Hill would/could handle a starters workload over an entire season. I was focusing on quality IP. Any MLB would be interested in 90+ quality IP. One doesn't just "build ip arm strength" after making 25 relief appearances. Arm strength is not the issue. Quality IP is. Sox paid Craig Breslow $2M this year for 60IP of dubious quality on the heels of spending $3.8M for 54 downright crappy IP the previous year. Sox management would be negligent if they were NOT to sign Hill. Adding Hill and subtracting Breslow from the roster is a no brainer. Sorry if this was unclear, but the second part wasn't directed at you. I was just clarifying the timeline - he didn't switch back and forth between starting and relieving. He pitched for Long Island between his stints with Washington and Boston, not before both. And by "building his arm strength" what I should have said was "stretching out to start." That's all. We can agree that one can't immediately go from making 1-inning appearances to starting and pitching deep into games, right? Listening to the Britton/BMac podcast this morning, they relayed that apparently Hill has said he'll accept a swingman job for next year (they used Capuano as an example), but he really wants to start. I'm sure the Sox would love to sign him to some contract. The question is who the highest bidder is and what role they'd like him in. The way the Sox roster is constructed, they may not be the best landing spot for him. As the ProJo guys said, which made a lot of sense, a team that's in the mode the 2012 Red Sox were in - where Doubront, Bard, Padilla, Aceves were fighting for the last two rotation spots - might be a better landing spot. A team could offer an incentive-laden deal that, say, starts at $2M, but could go way up based on # of starts and offer him a real chance to win a rotation spot. Another thing I thought of is that he might be a great fit for a team with a stud young SP coming up who'll be ready around midseason. Allows you to wear him out over the first half and hey, if he's healthy and producing midseason, what a great problem to have. If you're, say, the Dodgers, would you pay Hill $4M to pitch in the rotation for the first half until Urias is ready?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 2, 2015 9:52:00 GMT -5
Rich Hill is totally going 5-14 with a 2.98 ERA next year for the Oakland A's.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 2, 2015 9:55:50 GMT -5
Rich Hill is totally going 5-14 with a 2.98 ERA next year for the Oakland A's. Who is he getting dealt to at the deadline?
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 2, 2015 10:00:15 GMT -5
Rich Hill is totally going 5-14 with a 2.98 ERA next year for the Oakland A's. Who is he getting dealt to at the deadline? The Red Sox at a 500% premium.... Duh.
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Post by jmei on Oct 2, 2015 10:30:04 GMT -5
Listening to the Britton/BMac podcast this morning, they relayed that apparently Hill has said he'll accept a swingman job for next year (they used Capuano as an example), but he really wants to start. I'm sure the Sox would love to sign him to some contract. The question is who the highest bidder is and what role they'd like him in. The way the Sox roster is constructed, they may not be the best landing spot for him. As the ProJo guys said, which made a lot of sense, a team that's in the mode the 2012 Red Sox were in - where Doubront, Bard, Padilla, Aceves were fighting for the last two rotation spots - might be a better landing spot. A team could offer an incentive-laden deal that, say, starts at $2M, but could go way up based on # of starts and offer him a real chance to win a rotation spot. Another thing I thought of is that he might be a great fit for a team with a stud young SP coming up who'll be ready around midseason. Allows you to wear him out over the first half and hey, if he's healthy and producing midseason, what a great problem to have. If you're, say, the Dodgers, would you pay Hill $4M to pitch in the rotation for the first half until Urias is ready? I had the exact same thought. We're talking about a guy who wanted to be a starter so bad that he turned down promising minor league deals (with a real likelihood of being called up to the majors as a LOOGY-type) and played independent league ball to get the opportunity to start. He's likely going to prefer teams that give him a legitimate chance to win a spot in the rotation. Now, the Red Sox could carve out that sort of opportunity (e.g., a spring training competition between him, Owens, Wright, and Johnson for the fifth spot in the rotation), but other teams will be able to provide a clearer shot at a starting pitcher spot. He's also a guy who will be 36 next year and has only earned something like $3 million over the course of his career. He's almost certainly going to take the contract which offers him the best combination of guaranteed money and reachable incentives, and I'm skeptical that he gives the Red Sox any sort of hometown discount. Hill is definitely appealing on an incentive-laden deal with minimal guarantees, but once you get into the $5m+ range (which is what I think it might end up being; teams have been willing to drop real cash on reclamation projects), the risk/reward balance starts becoming a real question.
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Post by okin15 on Oct 2, 2015 12:50:58 GMT -5
The Sox also have two or three LHP already in their rotation. It seems unlikely to me that they'd be willing to go with another one.
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