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Is Rich over the Hill?
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Post by p23w on Nov 19, 2015 11:25:59 GMT -5
The key (and the risk) to signing Hill is IP. And by IP I refer to quality IP at the ML level. I suspect 75IP is his floor and 140 is his ceiling. IMO Hill is making a mistake by signing with a team for a guaranteed spot in the rotation. I wish him well but I have serious doubts that he will make 20+ starts. I think he can achieve this plateau, but I believe he will need time off, for his 20+ starts to result in quality IP. I think if the Sox could have reached an arrangement with Hill, they would have a better team in 2016.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 19, 2015 14:33:22 GMT -5
I love Hill, but not so sure he can sustain his performance from the past few months. He would be good as a long man/ spot starter. I think Wright fills that role for us this year however.
I wish Hill the best.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 19, 2015 14:38:43 GMT -5
... IF he stays healthy. Given his history, you'll get no money from me on that one. Hey, I watched Brett Anderson throw 180IP this year. If he can do it, I'm not counting out anybody! Lol... true.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Nov 20, 2015 15:42:30 GMT -5
IMO Hill is making a mistake by signing with a team for a guaranteed spot in the rotation. He's going into his age 36 season with an injury history as long as his career. I don't think he's trying to re-establish his career out there in Oakland, I think he's taking the biggest paycheck he can and crossing his fingers he pitches enough to get another one. As for Oakland, they're hoping he can be half as successful as he was this past year and a contender comes knocking.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2015 17:04:40 GMT -5
IMO Hill is making a mistake by signing with a team for a guaranteed spot in the rotation. He's going into his age 36 season with an injury history as long as his career. I don't think he's trying to re-establish his career out there in Oakland, I think he's taking the biggest paycheck he can and crossing his fingers he pitches enough to get another one. As for Oakland, they're hoping he can be half as successful as he was this past year and a contender comes knocking. FWIW, the report was that he turned down more money elsewhere for the guaranteed rotation spot, so if that's true, he did not sign for the biggest paycheck he could (of course, we still don't know if there are incentives, right?). My guess is it was a combo of best contract plus best chance to start because that's what he wants to do and thinks he could be most successful doing.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2015 17:17:28 GMT -5
If he has a decent year as a starter, he'd be able to get quite a bit more money next year than he would have if he had a decent season as a reliever.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 17:24:59 GMT -5
It's been reported multiple times that he doesn't want to relieve and that he wants to be a starter. I wish the Sox could have gotten him to return, but it was never ever ever ever a fit unless no one else gave him the chance to start.
Schilling tweets: "This'll come back to bit[e] Sox" which makes no sense, then again, when does Schilling ever make much sense on twitter.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 20, 2015 18:04:45 GMT -5
Better than him making sweeping generalizations about everyone of a particular faith.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 20, 2015 18:31:39 GMT -5
Better than him making sweeping generalizations about everyone of a particular faith. Oh I agree with this. They are not ALL terrorists!...only a very small percentage. But I like that Schilling does not have to be politically correct....Agree or not he is straightforward and honest. So glad for Hill but surprised the Sox did not offer him bigger bucks. I guess that the guarantee of an opportunity to start was the difference..Man what a great short term performance!! I can not remember a more scintillating spurt. I was so eager to watch each start.
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Post by ray88h66 on Nov 20, 2015 18:58:11 GMT -5
Good for Hill. Hope he does well.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2015 3:16:27 GMT -5
It's been reported multiple times that he doesn't want to relieve and that he wants to be a starter. I wish the Sox could have gotten him to return, but it was never ever ever ever a fit unless no one else gave him the chance to start. Schilling tweets: "This'll come back to bit[e] Sox" which makes no sense, then again, when does Schilling ever make much sense on twitter. It's certainly a fit. All you would have had to do was say "We'll guarantee you a spot in the rotation (if healthy)" and write him a check. And then trade Wade Miley for someone really good.* He was worth $8.8M last year by fWAR and $12.8M by bWAR. And he started just four games. You have to like your chances of getting your money's worth, no?Assuming that Joe Kelly is Buchholz's injury caddy in either case, and that instead of trading Miley for a reliever, you sign someone just as good, this is the equation you have to solve: -- The value of X starts by Rich Hill and (32-X) starts by Steven Wright (including the .30 points he knocks off the ERA of the next game's pitcher, if facing the same team) -- The salary savings, Miley versus Hill, and FA reliever vs traded-for reliever versus -- The value of 32 starts by Miley -- The value of an unknown number of starts by Wright versus starts by Owens or Johnson (since you are now likelier to be going deeper into the depth chart) I'll take the rotation with Hill and Wright over Miley big time, I'll take the young cost-controlled relief stud with 4 years of control you can get from any sabermetrically-oriented team for Miley over the expensive declining FA you'd be signing instead, and I'll use the saved money elsewhere, and I think all of that blows away the downside of any likely number of starts made by Owens / Johnson that would have been Wright (or Kelly) starts had we kept Miley. *Billy Beane wasn't in a position to guarantee Hill a rotation spot, either, but he signed him and immediately traded his 5th starter, Jesse Chavez, who was a year away from free agency and isn't as good as Miley, for a good reliever, Liam Hendricks, with four years of control.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 21, 2015 9:16:22 GMT -5
If someone is "worth" 8.8m or more from 4 starts, then it's time to find some new statistics because that's just ridiculous.
Trading Miley, a durable reliable pitcher, to make room for Hill and his history may be one of the worst things I can think of. Weren't you just last offseason using these same statistics to argue how valuable Miley was? Now he basically did what he was supposed to last year and Hill comes in for 4 starts after hardly playing in the last few years and you want to replace Miley with him?
I love the Rich Hill story but this defies all logic.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 21, 2015 13:54:43 GMT -5
I'll take the rotation with Hill and Wright over Miley big time, ... Really, you like Wright more than Miley? I'll bet no one knew that!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 21, 2015 14:06:59 GMT -5
I'll take the rotation with Hill and Wright over Miley big time, ... Really, you like Wright more than Miley? I'll bet no one knew that! I think it's Wright's -.2 WAR. Had he been able to pitch more innings he could have increased that.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 21, 2015 14:14:07 GMT -5
Congrats to hill for showing tremendous preservance and determination and faith in his ability throughout his entire career.
I hope he does well in Oakland except against us.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 21, 2015 14:21:29 GMT -5
Seconded, thirded, whatever numbered, lot's of people are happy for Rich, nobody has anything remotely negative to say about him, always high praise. I hope he does well enough this year to land a longer term contract next year.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 21, 2015 14:35:21 GMT -5
Jeeeze....In the great scheme of things what is 6 Million? The guy was Cy Young in September. Maybe management knows more than we do. What fun to watch and root for him though. Does Billy fleece the league again?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 21, 2015 14:57:06 GMT -5
If he does as well as we hope, he'll get traded at the deadline for a boatload of prospects.
Billy didn't have an opening in the rotation either. The day after Hill signed Billy traded away their #5 for a cost controlled decent reliever.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2015 15:17:56 GMT -5
Really, you like Wright more than Miley? I'll bet no one knew that! I think it's Wright's -.2 WAR. Had he been able to pitch more innings he could have increased that. FIP and hence fWAR is meaningless for knuckleball pitchers. He was jerked around in and out of the rotation and put up 1.6 or 1.7 bWAR when pro-rated to Miley's innings. The post-knuckleball effect is worth about 1.0 WAR (3 innings per each of his starts, 9 innings for about 20 of them, more if you try to use the effect by avoiding having him pitch the last game of the series). Miley had 2.5 bWAR, and can be counted to do it again. So Wright doesn't have to gain anything by being used more consistently to be a more valuable SP than Miley; he just has to pitch like he has for the past two seasons. But evidence suggests he will very likely benefit. He made 8 starts last year on regular rest last year and had a 3.23 ERA and 3.99 RA9 in 47.1 IP. He had 6 relief appearances on less than 5 days rest and had a 4.29 ERA and 4.91 RA9 in 14.2 IP. That difference may or may not be random, but we don't actually need to consider it for this argument; if any of it is real, it's gravy. Because he also pitched twice after a long layoff, both after being recalled from Pawtucket and sitting, and he had a 7.59 ERA and RA9 in 10.2 IP. In other words, those were the two games where he was hammered. Does anyone doubt the fact that going a week without pitching might mess up the knuckleball? Do folks really think it's random that he had a 3.48 ERA and 4.21 RA9 in all but 2 of his games, but 7.59 when he hadn't pitched for a week? Miley's RA9 was 4.55, and Wright's was 4.71. Even if most of that split is random, Wright is matching Miley even without the knuckleball hangover (and even if all of his unearned runs were actually his fault rather than bad luck). Summing it up: everything included, Wright's run prevention was nearly as good as Miley's (the bigger gap in WAR is, I think, due to a chunk of Wright's innings being in lower leverage, but I'll look at it more closely later, I hope). But there's 1) the post-knuckleball effect, 2) the distortion of Wright's record by two games with a long layoff, 3) the fact that we're crediting Miley with only allowing 2 UER runs all year when some of that was almost certainly luck, while charging Wright with all of his UER, ditto, and 4) the possibility that Wright actually pitches better as a starter than as a reliever. It's just hard to see how the existing evidence says that Miley is the more valuable starting pitcher. (It's worth noting that not all knuckle-ballers have shown the hangover effect; Wakefield and Dickey have, and Wright has had a huge one in the minors. Maybe the Sox have studied it more deeply and don't think he'll have one. But like I say, it might be gravy.)
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Post by p23w on Nov 21, 2015 15:34:35 GMT -5
It's been reported multiple times that he doesn't want to relieve and that he wants to be a starter. I wish the Sox could have gotten him to return, but it was never ever ever ever a fit unless no one else gave him the chance to start. Schilling tweets: "This'll come back to bit[e] Sox" which makes no sense, then again, when does Schilling ever make much sense on twitter. Makes perfect sense to me.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 21, 2015 16:38:27 GMT -5
It's been reported multiple times that he doesn't want to relieve and that he wants to be a starter. I wish the Sox could have gotten him to return, but it was never ever ever ever a fit unless no one else gave him the chance to start. Schilling tweets: "This'll come back to bit[e] Sox" which makes no sense, then again, when does Schilling ever make much sense on twitter. [...] *Billy Beane wasn't in a position to guarantee Hill a rotation spot, either, but he signed him and immediately traded his 5th starter, Jesse Chavez, who was a year away from free agency and isn't as good as Miley, for a good reliever, Liam Hendricks, with four years of control. Billy Beane can make this kind of move, because frankly, his job isn't really on the line. There’s no undue pressure on him to win. He's got to have the longest leash of all GMs in baseball. I mean, his team comes last, he makes some awful trades and he gets a promotion. If a deal like this works, it's "oh my, Billy, can you stop being a Moneyball genius?", if it doesn't it's "that Billy, he tried something very smahht; it just didn't work. I wonder what he's going to try next". When your downside risk is lower than most, it’s a bit easier to play genius. This is great for Rich Hill, but guaranteeing him a rotation spot + $6m after ~4 starts and in spite of his history is the kind of move one makes when one isn’t all that concerned about the downside. I get the money. Guaranteeing a spot (and trading your #5 in exchange for a reliever), and get applauded for it, it really takes a special one to pull that off. Jeeeze....In the great scheme of things what is 6 Million? The guy was Cy Young in September. Maybe management knows more than we do. What fun to watch and root for him though. Does Billy fleece the league again?Like he "fleeced the league" on Donaldson to the Blue Jays? Russell to the Cubs? Samardzia to the White Sox? I swear, this “Billy Beane the genius who is the smartest and swindles all the other idiot GMs” has got to be one of the biggest myths out there since Kayzer Soze.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 21, 2015 17:47:17 GMT -5
It's been reported multiple times that he doesn't want to relieve and that he wants to be a starter. I wish the Sox could have gotten him to return, but it was never ever ever ever a fit unless no one else gave him the chance to start. Schilling tweets: "This'll come back to bit[e] Sox" which makes no sense, then again, when does Schilling ever make much sense on twitter. It's certainly a fit. All you would have had to do was say "We'll guarantee you a spot in the rotation (if healthy)" and write him a check. And then trade Wade Miley for someone really good.* He was worth $8.8M last year by fWAR and $12.8M by bWAR. And he started just four games. You have to like your chances of getting your money's worth, no?Assuming that Joe Kelly is Buchholz's injury caddy in either case, and that instead of trading Miley for a reliever, you sign someone just as good, this is the equation you have to solve: -- The value of X starts by Rich Hill and (32-X) starts by Steven Wright (including the .30 points he knocks off the ERA of the next game's pitcher, if facing the same team) -- The salary savings, Miley versus Hill, and FA reliever vs traded-for reliever versus -- The value of 32 starts by Miley -- The value of an unknown number of starts by Wright versus starts by Owens or Johnson (since you are now likelier to be going deeper into the depth chart) I'll take the rotation with Hill and Wright over Miley big time, I'll take the young cost-controlled relief stud with 4 years of control you can get from any sabermetrically-oriented team for Miley over the expensive declining FA you'd be signing instead, and I'll use the saved money elsewhere, and I think all of that blows away the downside of any likely number of starts made by Owens / Johnson that would have been Wright (or Kelly) starts had we kept Miley. *Billy Beane wasn't in a position to guarantee Hill a rotation spot, either, but he signed him and immediately traded his 5th starter, Jesse Chavez, who was a year away from free agency and isn't as good as Miley, for a good reliever, Liam Hendricks, with four years of control. I don't see how Rich Hill is a fit for the Sox. The would need much stronger 1/2 guys and some really nice depth pieces. Hill + Buchholz + Kelly reads like you'll need 3 starters before June
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 21, 2015 19:15:04 GMT -5
[...] *Billy Beane wasn't in a position to guarantee Hill a rotation spot, either, but he signed him and immediately traded his 5th starter, Jesse Chavez, who was a year away from free agency and isn't as good as Miley, for a good reliever, Liam Hendricks, with four years of control. Billy Beane can make this kind of move, because frankly, his job isn't really on the line. There’s no undue pressure on him to win. He's got to have the longest leash of all GMs in baseball. I mean, his team comes last, he makes some awful trades and he gets a promotion. If a deal like this works, it's "oh my, Billy, can you stop being a Moneyball genius?", if it doesn't it's "that Billy, he tried something very smahht; it just didn't work. I wonder what he's going to try next". When your downside risk is lower than most, it’s a bit easier to play genius. This is great for Rich Hill, but guaranteeing him a rotation spot + $6m after ~4 starts and in spite of his history is the kind of move one makes when one isn’t all that concerned about the downside. I get the money. Guaranteeing a spot (and trading your #5 in exchange for a reliever), and get applauded for it, it really takes a special one to pull that off. Jeeeze....In the great scheme of things what is 6 Million? The guy was Cy Young in September. Maybe management knows more than we do. What fun to watch and root for him though. Does Billy fleece the league again?Like he "fleeced the league" on Donaldson to the Blue Jays? Russell to the Cubs? Samardzia to the White Sox? I swear, this “Billy Beane the genius who is the smartest and swindles all the other idiot GMs” has got to be one of the biggest myths out there since Kayzer Soze. Well let's see on this one....No one could question the stats. Maybe there was something more.....or not.
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Post by jmei on Nov 22, 2015 10:23:32 GMT -5
I moved a bunch of Wright-related discussion to that thread.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 22, 2015 10:28:19 GMT -5
Jeeeze....In the great scheme of things what is 6 Million? The guy was Cy Young in September. Maybe management knows more than we do. What fun to watch and root for him though. Does Billy fleece the league again?Like he "fleeced the league" on Donaldson to the Blue Jays? Russell to the Cubs? Samardzia to the White Sox? I swear, this “Billy Beane the genius who is the smartest and swindles all the other idiot GMs” has got to be one of the biggest myths out there since Kayzer Soze.You really should watch that movie to the end.
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