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10/2-10/4 Red Sox @ Indians Series Thread
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 3, 2015 9:32:06 GMT -5
I don't think judgments can be made on player performances at this point. The season is over and most of them probably are exhausted. Most definitely. Henry has proven quite a lot over the last couple of months in AAA and the majors. It is disappointing for him that last night was his last memory of 2015, but he has shown he is very competitive. I sort of look at him as a solid depth piece for next season, but who knows. I am sure he and everyone in that dugout are tired after 8 months. Here's hoping for two well played, competitive final games this weekend! (and it would be nice if Castillo got a hit or two!)
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 3, 2015 9:34:21 GMT -5
IMO, there is a camp "C" losely aligned to Camp "A" which actively advocates trading anyone and everyone, from XB to Pedey, Papi to Mookie, Buch to ERod. Such is life. Of course the problem for the camp "C" group is that 6 months later they want to trade all the players they received in those earlier trades....
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2015 9:56:13 GMT -5
Henry Owens has become something of a straw man for the two "camps" on this site. Camp A believes prospects are over-valued and the best thing to with most of them is trade them. Camp B believes prospects are under-valued and you should mostly avoid trading the ones with genuinely high upside. And most posters have a foot in both camps (full disclosure: I probably fall more clearly in Camp B than all but a few). Henry Owens is a high-risk, medium to high upside prospect, who flashes signs of being a genuinely high upside prospect (although scouts don't view him as a legitimately high upside prospect). Every home run confirms Camp A's beliefs; every strikeout confirms Camp B. In many ways, I see Henry Owens as the "proxy" for a larger debate over whether prospects are over-valued or under-valued. I think a similar dynamic is in place with respect to Manuel Margot. IMO, there is a camp "C" losely aligned to Camp "A" which actively advocates trading anyone and everyone, from XB to Pedey, Papi to Mookie, Buch to ERod. Such is life. Yeah, the ones who forget that steroids aren't prevalent in baseball anymore and thus, the majority of superstars are 24-27 years old (or younger) now. And they also think that no other teams realize this. It's the old Yankees mode crowd. Got to at least try to out-Yankees the Yankees or else we're not trying to win.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 3, 2015 10:19:19 GMT -5
Every start Henry Owens has had seen some amazing confirmation bias for both his detractors and believers. He's probably the most polarizing high-level prospect I've come across in my time with SoxProspects. Every time he walks a guy or gives up a home run it's proof that his stuff won't work in the majors. Every swing-and-miss on a 91-mph fastball proves that it will. It's kind of fascinating. I think there were two big questions about Owens: 1) could he improve his command enough? 2) Even if he does, does his stuff play in the majors? I think everyone has always agreed with the first one; it's been clear for years that that's a problem for him. It's right there in the numbers. But I think the main diversion of opinion was on the second point. If his stuff plays, then he has upside he may or may not reach. If it doesn't, he's a low-impact player at best. To me, a bright spot in the year is that it seems that the answer to #2 is "yes." His change is an elite pitch, and his other pitches seem good enough to play off that change. So, he's got upside, which is the answer to one question. Now the question is still will he tighten up his consistency and command well enough to reach it ... and who knows if/when that'll happen?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2015 10:28:24 GMT -5
Every start Henry Owens has had seen some amazing confirmation bias for both his detractors and believers. He's probably the most polarizing high-level prospect I've come across in my time with SoxProspects. Every time he walks a guy or gives up a home run it's proof that his stuff won't work in the majors. Every swing-and-miss on a 91-mph fastball proves that it will. It's kind of fascinating. I think there were two big questions about Owens: 1) could he improve his command enough? 2) Even if he does, does his stuff play in the majors? I think everyone has always agreed with the first one; it's been clear for years that that's a problem for him. It's right there in the numbers. But I think the main diversion of opinion was on the second point. If his stuff plays, then he has upside he may or may not reach. If it doesn't, he's a low-impact player at best. To me, a bright spot in the year is that it seems that the answer to #2 is "yes." His change is an elite pitch, and his other pitches seem good enough to play off that change. So, he's got upside, which is the answer to one question. Now the question is still will he tighten up his consistency and command well enough to reach it ... and who knows if/when that'll happen? I sometimes wonder if people forget that he's 6'6" tall, has gained over 50 pounds of muscle in the last 4 years and is barely 23 years old. It's not hard to figure out why someone with that profile has a hard time consistently repeating his delivery. He'll be Matt Barnes' age in 2 more full seasons.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 3, 2015 16:12:05 GMT -5
This is OT, so feel free to ignore.
For those who think situational pitching has not gotten out of hand, Texas and LAA are in the bottom of the 9th, and the 18th pitcher has entered the game. That's 18 pitchers in 18 half innings -- and the starters each went 4 innings.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 3, 2015 16:25:34 GMT -5
I think there were two big questions about Owens: 1) could he improve his command enough? 2) Even if he does, does his stuff play in the majors? I think everyone has always agreed with the first one; it's been clear for years that that's a problem for him. It's right there in the numbers. But I think the main diversion of opinion was on the second point. If his stuff plays, then he has upside he may or may not reach. If it doesn't, he's a low-impact player at best. To me, a bright spot in the year is that it seems that the answer to #2 is "yes." His change is an elite pitch, and his other pitches seem good enough to play off that change. So, he's got upside, which is the answer to one question. Now the question is still will he tighten up his consistency and command well enough to reach it ... and who knows if/when that'll happen? I sometimes wonder if people forget that he's 6'6" tall, has gained over 50 pounds of muscle in the last 4 years and is barely 23 years old. It's not hard to figure out why someone with that profile has a hard time consistently repeating his delivery. He'll be Matt Barnes' age in 2 more full seasons. Yup and with all that going for him he is still barely cracking the pane...
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 3, 2015 16:29:37 GMT -5
Every start Henry Owens has had seen some amazing confirmation bias for both his detractors and believers. He's probably the most polarizing high-level prospect I've come across in my time with SoxProspects. Every time he walks a guy or gives up a home run it's proof that his stuff won't work in the majors. Every swing-and-miss on a 91-mph fastball proves that it will. It's kind of fascinating. So true! Except that I did not see FBs other than 86-and an occasional 89 yesterday. If he consistently (game to game) threw 90-93 with better command..ok you've got me. Otherwise......no.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 3, 2015 19:57:26 GMT -5
I think Owens has something more than going on with him. I like his makeup and I would have him in camp for a starting job. But don't get me wrong if someone wants to offer something I would listen. You have to listen on practically everyone but a very small number. They are not losing that top pick and I hope they go all out for Price. Looking at this team how can you not be so disappointed in the veterans. we will see this offseason ,it should be interesting and I am pumped with this new FO.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 3, 2015 20:18:46 GMT -5
I love the swing and miss of Owens but his fastball is extremely hitable. If it gets up at all it's good bye. I've seen him get body slammed with that fastball several times. Just rockets flying off the bats. There is a chance he develops a cutter or something to help him adjust but he's probably several years from being worthy of being in the starting 5 if he ever gets there. We are a big market team. We generally don't want to experiment with starters who may or may not be good.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 3, 2015 20:45:36 GMT -5
The other day Leon batted in the 9th when Swihart or someone could have hit for him. If he isn't hit for next inning I think it's fairly obvious that the Sox are playing out the string fairly straightforwardly and not really doing what it can to try to win in what is still a close game. In other words, a very subtle tank for a few draft positions. Lovullo has proved all he needs to.
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Post by station13 on Oct 3, 2015 20:59:41 GMT -5
Should they lose, record wise (reverse), where would they be?
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Post by station13 on Oct 3, 2015 21:20:34 GMT -5
Looks like Bogey will not reach 200 hits.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 4, 2015 1:28:56 GMT -5
The idea of not finishing last place was nice while it lasted, but it doesn't make the second half effort by the young guys any less incredible.
Now, go Astros!
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 4, 2015 13:00:26 GMT -5
Except for 3b, I'd be fine with today's line-up next year. Have to hope for a better year from Panda/Hanley , or some big trades.
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Post by dridiot on Oct 4, 2015 15:16:58 GMT -5
I know this doesn't matter at all, but I can't help but think, if we ran out a real lineup against the Yanks on Thursday, they might still be fighting for a playoff spot right now.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 4, 2015 17:03:09 GMT -5
I know this doesn't matter at all, but I can't help but think, if we ran out a real lineup against the Yanks on Thursday, they might still be fighting for a playoff spot right now. Congrats to Allan Craig in getting a hit in his last AB with the SOX. I hope.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2015 17:05:12 GMT -5
That was sad, but nice speech by Don Orsillo and class act by Red Sox players to tip there cap to him at games end.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 4, 2015 20:59:23 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts. That was indeed a class act by the Sox players to tip their cap to Orsillo at the end of the game. I think Remy looked pretty sad about the situation.
I think, given the Sox' circumstances, I think 78-84 was a good record to land at. It brings them good luck.
I've seen them wind up at 78-84 three times prior and each time it hinted at better times in the not-so-distant future ahead.
In 1983, the last year Yaz played, the Sox went 78-84, and then followed it up with an 86-76 season that featured an exciting offense and very promising young pitching that two years later lead to a team that got to within 1 strike of a Championship. (Speaking of which, I'm sure Rangers fans got some joy out of David Freese making the last out, something they wished he would have done 4 years earlier in the World Series).
After their disappointing 78-84 season in 1987, which featured a bit a lot of vets being dumped for young players (Bye bye Buckner, Henderson, Baylor, and to an extent Rice. Hello Burks, Greenwell, Benzinger, and Horn), they followed that season up with a division title and another one two years later.
After a lackluster 1997 season of 78-84, they won two straight American League Wild Cards, topping 90 wins both seasons.
This 2015 team reminded me most of the 1987 team. I suspect that within a year or two, the Sox should be right back in the thick of things, with a good young team with more young talent on the way.
The first four months of the season were so worthless, but the last two salvaged the season. I think the Sox got something out of it - a transition to the future.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Oct 4, 2015 22:22:01 GMT -5
Only 137 days until pitchers & catchers report.
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gerry
Veteran
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Posts: 1,667
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Post by gerry on Oct 5, 2015 1:25:29 GMT -5
Thqnks for those memories. The firat part of the season was useless because those who were expected to push the team to the playoffs were sadly dimished: Nap, Vic, Craig, Papi, Hanley, Panda, Porcello, Masterson, Kelly, Breslow, Ogando, Mujica, Vasquez, Hanigan .... about half the starting 25.
Beyond that, the kids and vets who finished 2015 strong and give such hope for 2016 were still gaining traction or knocking on the AAA door: Betts, Barnes, Bogaerts, Bradley, Castillo, Hembree, Hill, Johnson, Kelly, Owens, Papi, Pedey, Porcello, Marrero, N.Ramirez, ERod, Wright. The core around which the next great team is being built.
We have seen the stats for offense, defense, rotation over the past two months. This is a contending team missing just a few key pieces. The talented tweaking triumverate of Dombrowski, Hazen, Wren and tbeir crew can, I think, convert tthis late season push into a long term trend. This fanboy is very excited about the offseason, next season, into infinity and beyond.
2016
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2015 9:58:45 GMT -5
Going back to the earlier conversation about good pitchers with crummy won-loss records - I just saw that Shelby Miller finished 6-17 this year, despite a 124 ERA+. He also had two complete game shutouts, so he was 4-17 when he gave up more than zero runs and pitched fewer than all of the innings.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 5, 2015 10:30:52 GMT -5
So ... that didn't go well. Blew up baseball ops, had a manager go into chemo, pitching fell apart horrifically, some of the worst defense I've ever seen, went from a clean contract situation to simultaneously taking on TWO albatross contracts, Pedroia may have moved into later-career "injury prone" status, Napoli got run out of town, Craig confirmed that he's cooked ... it was a bad year.
Glad to see it go by and be gracious enough to leave us with some real hope over the last two months.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2015 10:52:55 GMT -5
Now what? Am I alone in only caring about the Red Sox and not really about the rest of baseball? I'll probably watch a little of the playoffs, but not a lot.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 5, 2015 10:56:25 GMT -5
Now what? Am I alone in only caring about the Red Sox and not really about the rest of baseball? I'll probably watch a little of the playoffs, but not a lot. There are some years where I don't even know who won the World Series if there's not someone on Facebook telling me their favorite team won ... maybe I'll see if the Astros beat the Yankees. Maybe.
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