SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Acquiring an Ace: FA or Trade?
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 28, 2015 22:00:46 GMT -5
So what exactly is the point, since they made a mistake with Lester they should not do what it takes going forward? The mistake would be saddling the team with a contract for a pitcher through age 37. Assuming the contract is a little back loaded and using the 7 year / $235 million number people are tossing around as an estimate, you'd be paying Price approximately $120 million for the seasons during which he'll turn 35, 36 and 37. Seriously, where have our standards gone? A heap of last place finishes is not a standard lol. They know they're punting on 3 of Price's 7 years. Luckily the really good 3-4 years will line up with some of our youngster's primes. This where you most often see the disconnect between actual businessman and mindless internet peons who play armchair GM with another man's team and money. The complete inability to read the market and also the inability to realize that many baseball decisions are actually business decisions. They need an immediate uptick in performance and relevance, and a David Price contract is something that accomplishes that. With tickets going on sale right after the Winter Meetings, look for the Sox to be HUGELY active at the meetings.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 28, 2015 22:05:15 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox owners realized that they made a mistake by not signing Lester and are now willing to pay the going rate to get a bona fide ace. You mean the same way they realized that they made a mistake by not signing Abreu and then were willing to overpay for Castillo? How's that working out so far? This is not even a worthwhile comparison for 2 reasons: 1. The reactionary Abreu narrative was always a bum one. Losing Ellsbury and finding someone who they viewed as a similar talent for 1/2 price was the reasoning behind the Castillo signing. Not because they lost out on Abreu. How does that make any sense? Wahh we missed on a 1st baseman, we have to go sign an outfielder now! 2. Price is about as known commodity as you can get. He's not some mystery international signing half-measure. We know what his immediate impact will be.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Nov 28, 2015 22:09:25 GMT -5
You mean the same way they realized that they made a mistake by not signing Abreu and then were willing to overpay for Castillo? How's that working out so far? 1. The reactionary Abreu narrative was always a bum one. Losing Ellsbury and finding someone who they viewed as a similar talent for 1/2 price was the reasoning behind the Castillo signing. Not because they lost out on Abreu. How does that make any sense? Wahh we missed on a 1st baseman, we have to go sign an outfielder now! Big fat zero wrong: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/08/29/john-henry-missing-on-jose-abreu-pushed-rusney-castillo-offer/"When asked if the Red Sox missing out on White Sox slugger Jose Abreu by a mere $5 million when bidding for the first baseman last year led to surprisingly high offer of seven years, $72.5 million for Castillo, Henry wrote: 'Yes, the financial aspects were impacted by coming close on Abreu. The White Sox did their homework.'"
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Nov 28, 2015 22:26:42 GMT -5
Then what does Lester have to do with? Lester we'd have been paying $52.5-60 million to during the last three years of his deal - Or about $17.5-$20 million per year - Not the preposterous $40 million per year Price would be getting on the back end of his deal. One's a reasonable contract. The other's a turd biscuit the likes of the Yank's deal with Sabathia. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Not sure where you're getting your math. Lester at Boston's last offer 6yrs/$135mill = $22.5/yr Price at projected salary - 7 yrs/$210mill = $30/yr So, the difference is much smaller than your exaggerated numbers. In addition, you're assuming equal or similar performance. I think that's unlikely. I think most people around here would expect better performance from Price over the last 2 years of his deal than from Lester over the last 2 of his. Not sure there's a problem with the cost difference.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Nov 28, 2015 22:38:14 GMT -5
Lester we'd have been paying $52.5-60 million to during the last three years of his deal - Or about $17.5-$20 million per year - Not the preposterous $40 million per year Price would be getting on the back end of his deal. One's a reasonable contract. The other's a turd biscuit the likes of the Yank's deal with Sabathia. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Not sure where you're getting your math. You're conveniently forgetting this, which was widely reported at the time: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/07/21/peter-gammons-on-dc-potential-trade-partners-show-most-interest-in-red-sox-reliever-andrew-miller/"'I was told that (Lester) told teammates that when they met in March, if they offered him one dollar more than the six-year, $105 million that Homer Bailey got, he would take it,' Gammons said. 'But they didn’t.'"
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 28, 2015 22:44:27 GMT -5
1. The reactionary Abreu narrative was always a bum one. Losing Ellsbury and finding someone who they viewed as a similar talent for 1/2 price was the reasoning behind the Castillo signing. Not because they lost out on Abreu. How does that make any sense? Wahh we missed on a 1st baseman, we have to go sign an outfielder now! Big fat zero wrong: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/08/29/john-henry-missing-on-jose-abreu-pushed-rusney-castillo-offer/"When asked if the Red Sox missing out on White Sox slugger Jose Abreu by a mere $5 million when bidding for the first baseman last year led to surprisingly high offer of seven years, $72.5 million for Castillo, Henry wrote: 'Yes, the financial aspects were impacted by coming close on Abreu. The White Sox did their homework.'"Lol. It's hilarious how bad your reading comprehension is. Losing Abreu didn't make them go out and sign Castillo. Losing a 1B didn't make them turn around and sign an outfielder. I'll break it down simply so you can understand it easier, and let me know if you want me to simplify it any further. Henry's quote is about the financial aspect of bidding against other teams in a closed bidding environment. They missed out on Abreu by only a few million, a player they really wanted. So when they liked Rusney Castillo, they knew they had to bid strongly so they didn't miss out. Tons of people with poor poor poor reading comprehension see that quote and think Rusney was a reactionary move, a la, "we didn't get abreu, so we need Rusney!" He wasn't. Bidding 72.5 instead of say, 60 or 65, was, but realistically, this isn't a huge difference at all anyway so who cares. Losing out on Lester, and signing a bunch of garbage in the meantime, IS directly proportional to having to go out and sign David Price.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Nov 28, 2015 23:33:17 GMT -5
Lol. It's hilarious how bad your reading comprehension is. Congratulations. It only took you an hour to regurgitate the same retort you always resort to when you've been hosed with a fact you were clearly unaware of.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2015 23:40:53 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: #Tigers in discussions with Jordan Zimmermann, sources tell @ken_rosenthal and me, with multiple people saying talks have become serious.”
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Nov 28, 2015 23:43:22 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: #Tigers in discussions with Jordan Zimmermann, sources tell @ken_rosenthal and me, with multiple people saying talks have become serious.” Sucks if true. Zimmerman's the guy I'd prefer. The 6 years / $126 million estimate that's been floated wouldn't be half bad either, as it would carry only through his age 35 season.
|
|
|
Post by PedroKsBambino on Nov 28, 2015 23:45:42 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: #Tigers in discussions with Jordan Zimmermann, sources tell @ken_rosenthal and me, with multiple people saying talks have become serious.” Just saw that. There goes one of the top 4 options at starting pitcher. Hopefully if this signing happens it gives the free agent market a kickstart. Let's just hope this leads David Price to the Sox and doesn't instead leave them in the cold in the game of musical chairs that is the free agent market.
|
|
|
Post by akiva on Nov 28, 2015 23:48:33 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: #Tigers in discussions with Jordan Zimmermann, sources tell @ken_rosenthal and me, with multiple people saying talks have become serious.” Sucks if true. Zimmerman's the guy I'd prefer. The 6 years / $126 million estimate that's been floated wouldn't be half bad either, as it would carry only through his age 35 season. Why yes, let's hand out Lester money to a guy who can't manage to break 8 on his K/9 in the NL and is seeing a downturn in performance already. Sounds like a perfectly sensible move from a financial standpoint. Let's wait to see if he signs with them before making any judgements, but he was a plan B for many teams that could then switch attention to Price-Greinke-Cueto more seriously.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Nov 28, 2015 23:56:16 GMT -5
Sucks if true. Zimmerman's the guy I'd prefer. The 6 years / $126 million estimate that's been floated wouldn't be half bad either, as it would carry only through his age 35 season. Why yes, let's hand out Lester money to a guy who can't manage to break 8 on his K/9 in the NL and is seeing a downturn in performance already. Sounds like a perfectly sensible move from a financial standpoint. Let's wait to see if he signs with them before making any judgements, but he was a plan B for many teams that could then switch attention to Price-Greinke-Cueto more seriously. And what do you propose? - Cueto because he Ks more? The man is the pitching equivalent of Pablo. For a team that had a fried chicken and beer scandal, do we really need a second scandal involving two guys racing to see who can reach 300 lbs first?
|
|
|
Post by PedroKsBambino on Nov 28, 2015 23:59:15 GMT -5
Once the first of the top 4 starters sign it should move the market forward and add some urgency to the teams to seal the deal on the guy that they want. Would love to see Price sign with the Sox before the start of the winter meetings
|
|
|
Post by akiva on Nov 29, 2015 0:04:34 GMT -5
Why yes, let's hand out Lester money to a guy who can't manage to break 8 on his K/9 in the NL and is seeing a downturn in performance already. Sounds like a perfectly sensible move from a financial standpoint. Let's wait to see if he signs with them before making any judgements, but he was a plan B for many teams that could then switch attention to Price-Greinke-Cueto more seriously. And what do you propose? - Cueto because he Ks more? The man is the pitching equivalent of Pablo. For a team that had a fried chicken and beer scandal, do we really need a second scandal involving two guys racing to see who can reach 300 lbs first? I propose David Price. He k's more, gets homered off much less, pitches well not only in the AL but AL East and doesn't cost the draft pick. Your argument against Cueto based on the stupid, overblown beer and chicken "scandal" is ridiculous.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Nov 29, 2015 0:11:55 GMT -5
This pic is for all the Johnny Cueto lovers:
|
|
|
Post by mjammz on Nov 29, 2015 0:12:23 GMT -5
At this point Dombrowski should have a clear picture of how the market is going to unfold and who he has a legit chance at. Have to think if he didn't feel good about landing Price/Grienke, etc. he'd be in the Zimmerman market. The fact Zimmerman could be signing first is an indication the Sox aren't going after him that hard.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 29, 2015 1:21:38 GMT -5
Not that the Fangraphs’ dollar value stat should be taken as gospel or anything, but over the past three seasons Price has been worth roughly 43.4 million per season. By the basis of any normalized ageing curve, while also considering the inflation of player values, he should actually be decent value over an 8 year, 250 million dollar contract. You are likely looking at a pitcher who would greatly outperform his contract in seasons 1-3, provide some excess value in seasons 4&5 and may be a thorn in payroll the seasons that follow.
For what it is worth, Zimmerman had been worthy roughly 30.5 million dollars over the past three seasons and is only 8 months younger than Price.
As an aside: Can we stop using random pictures and videos posted on social media as a tool for player evaluation. It is has zero predictive value and is probably the dumbest sort of thing you can rely on for player evaluation. Please refer to the numerous freely available websites with advanced statistics or detailed scouting reports to judge players. Most of the posters here want to either read or participate in useful, reasoned discussion. If we wanted to troll player's twitter feeds, we could do it for ourselves.
|
|
|
Post by kman22 on Nov 29, 2015 1:25:03 GMT -5
Lol. It's hilarious how bad your reading comprehension is. Congratulations. It only took you an hour to regurgitate the same retort you always resort to when you've been hosed with a fact you were clearly unaware of. I'm legitimately confused as to how that quote could be referencing anything besides the financial aspect of the bidding. It can also be directly applied to the Moncada situation, as they outbid everyone by $6 million. The only difference there was that the tax on overage.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 29, 2015 1:48:20 GMT -5
Lol. It's hilarious how bad your reading comprehension is. Congratulations. It only took you an hour to regurgitate the same retort you always resort to when you've been hosed with a fact you were clearly unaware of. Sorry buddy, but you read my response and realized you had nothing to defend your point with, because it was flat out wrong. If you'd like to continue the conversation by actually using reasoning related to the issue at hand, I'll gladly reciprocate. I'm assuming this response though was your way of slowly backing out of the conversation.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 29, 2015 1:52:27 GMT -5
Congratulations. It only took you an hour to regurgitate the same retort you always resort to when you've been hosed with a fact you were clearly unaware of. I'm legitimately confused as to how that quote could be referencing anything besides the financial aspect of the bidding. It can also be directly applied to the Moncada situation, as they outbid everyone by $6 million. The only difference there was that the tax on overage. That's all it is. Losing Abreu changed how they approached bidding in these international situations. That was the only connection between Abreu and Castillo. People want to read that Henry quote and think the Castillo signing was some knee jerk reaction to losing Abreu, which makes zero sense. It's not like they were like "WE NEED A PLAYER FROM CUBA AND WE MISSED ON THAT ONE SO WE NOW HAVE TO ADD THIS GUY."
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Nov 29, 2015 2:20:05 GMT -5
Congratulations. It only took you an hour to regurgitate the same retort you always resort to when you've been hosed with a fact you were clearly unaware of. If you'd like to continue the conversation by actually using reasoning related to the issue at hand, I'll gladly reciprocate. I'm assuming this response though was your way of slowly backing out of the conversation. More like that you're a broken record, regardless of who you are trying to have a "conversation" with. Now proceed to your next diatribe about everyone's reading comprehension. forum.soxprospects.com/post/176225forum.soxprospects.com/post/178541
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 29, 2015 3:32:02 GMT -5
If you'd like to continue the conversation by actually using reasoning related to the issue at hand, I'll gladly reciprocate. I'm assuming this response though was your way of slowly backing out of the conversation. More like that you're a broken record, regardless of who you are trying to have a "conversation" with. Now proceed to your next diatribe about everyone's reading comprehension. forum.soxprospects.com/post/176225forum.soxprospects.com/post/178541Yeah, it's true some people can't seem to read on here. Case in point, you supplying a John Henry quote that in no way supports a point you're trying to defend. It's really shocking you couldn't read that quote and deduce what he was actually saying, and then at that point it's just kind of sad to see someone flailing around so badly. If you need me to explain anything else to you, or translate any more quotes you're not quite grasping, I will gladly do so. Always willing to help out someone in need.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 29, 2015 6:41:32 GMT -5
There's a big difference between what the Red Sox were willing to pay pre-2014 for a pre-FA extension and what they were willing to pay post-2014 in free agency. I pointed this out earlier. You are disingenuously using the wrong figure.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 29, 2015 6:42:28 GMT -5
Yeah, it's true some people can't seem to read on here. Case in point, you supplying a John Henry quote that in no way supports a point you're trying to defend. It's really shocking you couldn't read that quote and deduce what he was actually saying, and then at that point it's just kind of sad to see someone flailing around so badly. If you need me to explain anything else to you, or translate any more quotes you're not quite grasping, I will gladly do so. Always willing to help out someone in need. Please cut out the petty sniping.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Nov 29, 2015 8:14:15 GMT -5
There's a big difference between what the Red Sox were willing to pay pre-2014 for a pre-FA extension and what they were willing to pay post-2014 in free agency. I pointed this out earlier. You are disingenuously using the wrong figure. Exactly
|
|
|