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Acquiring an Ace: FA or Trade?
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2015 14:25:00 GMT -5
Lots of good discussion here. I'll just throw my opinion out there. I'm not sure that signing Price, Cueto, Greinke is the answer. I'd rather go the trade route to add somebody. Would love Carrasco, but I don't see why Cleveland would want to give him up. I love the idea of going after Quintana. I don't see a reason not to love what he'd bring. 200+ innings three consecutive years, he'll be 27 on OD, he's under contract for a good price until 2018 plus two option years, consistent batted ball data, ERA, xFIP, etc. Another thing I love is that he was third in all of baseball last year in first pitch strike percentage at 69%. (the top 11 of that list goes Scherzer, Lackey, Quintana, Chen, Harvey, Kershaw, deGrom, Zimmerman, Sale, Carrasco, Price). He's also been consistently above 65% with that the past three years. Obviously he doesn't get as many swinging strikes as most of those guys, but getting ahead consistently is important. His curveball was 13 runs above average last year according to Fangraphs, which was fourth in MLB behind Felix, Kluber, Kershaw. He was 11th in that category in 2014, using it about 6% less of the time. I think a rotation, in no particular order, of Buchholz, Quintana, Rodriguez, Porcello, Miley would be fine. I really think the defense hurt the staff so much last year, as the big gap between ERA (4.39) & FIP (3.92) shows. Pedroia's metrics were down at the start of the year, Napoli was not as good as he'd been previously, and obviously Hanley and Sandoval really hurt them. An improved outfield defense (Red Sox allowed the 4th most fly balls in baseball last year) will help a lot. So, I just think the four we have in Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, and Miley will work out, and adding Quintana instead of, like, Kelly or Owens, is certainly an upgrade. Sounds good! I really find the idea of us trading for an ace real difficult. I find the idea of us signing a free agent for more than 5 years scary. Maybe setting our sites somewhat lower is the way to think. I do like Carrasco and Quintana. I mentioned earlier about looking into someone like Steven Matz or maybe Zach Wheeler from the Mets. Maybe we could "con" the Rays into taking Hanley (we pay 2/3 of his salary) for Ordirizzi or Moore. Of course we have to sweeten it a lot. One solid upgrade, much better overall defense, and good health may be what is needed.
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Post by jdb on Oct 10, 2015 15:32:57 GMT -5
So doesnt a Quintana conversation start with Swihart?
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 10, 2015 15:51:49 GMT -5
So doesnt a Quintana conversation start with Swihart? Sure, it'd start that way, but then it'd either quickly end or turn into a discussion involving other high end prospects instead. Quintana is extremely solid and underrated, but he isn't worth Swihart, and the uncertainly with Vazquez makes such a deal even more unlikely.
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Post by thegoo13 on Oct 10, 2015 16:57:57 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is pretty heavily overrated on this site. Blake Swihart is pretty heavily underrated on this site. It's strange.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 10, 2015 17:13:50 GMT -5
Considering the overall situation regarding team assets, current salaries under contract, impact of losing the #12 pick etc.. I'm for signing a FA who will not involve losing our pick such as a Leake or Kazmir. We can afford to land one of those 2 guys and to me they are good enough to maybe help us get into the playoffs. If we want to role the dice at mid season and trade for a loaner #1 in July we can always consider it. You never know when a guy can emerge and be a #1 as occasionally Buchholz has done and maybe we can squeeze a #2 and 3 out of one of the others. I think this team hits well enough to enable that sort of team to compete.
Another thing I would be trying to do is trade some of our perceived surplus minor league talent like Margot, maybe Guerra etc...for some young pitching we feel good about such as the Erod deal. We need to keep trying to develop top young pitching.
We can keep guys like Johnson and Owen for starter depth but I'm not counting on either in the rotation. I'm not trading any catchers either. I spend $75-$90 mil if I can land Kazmir or Leake and whatever is left over for cash goes for relievers.
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Post by jdb on Oct 10, 2015 20:11:20 GMT -5
So doesnt a Quintana conversation start with Swihart? Sure, it'd start that way, but then it'd either quickly end or turn into a discussion involving other high end prospects instead. Quintana is extremely solid and underrated, but he isn't worth Swihart, and the uncertainly with Vazquez makes such a deal even more unlikely. I'll defer to you but man Quintana has been a top 15 SP per Fwar the last two seasons and with his options is locked up for the next five years for around $40 Million total. I don't think he's a #1 but he's a damn good #2. Do you think they will try and contend in 2016 or take a prospect package?
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 10, 2015 21:01:18 GMT -5
This explains why I think the Red Sox will have a very difficult time trading for a pitcher without seriously compromising their future. If you trade for that younger, slightly better Miley, you will be adding one to two WAR, but the trading team will be expecting compensation for three to four WAR. When you add in that the return on prospects is typically 1/2 that on veterans, you're overpaying. By a lot. It will be very difficult/costly to make the 2016 Red Sox more than a wild card team. There are a lot of potential/ probable two WAR players, but only two likely four WAR players. However, by 2018, when the second wave of young talent arrives, the Red Sox should have a real core of 4 to 6 WAR players to build a half decade of strong contenders. You guys are half nuts. Now that the team is being run by pros excellent player personnel people people who actually know how to build a team anyone but Ben Cherrington, if you really believe that enough can not be done between now and spring training to supplement the team's already burgeoning talent, you're fooling yourself. I expect the Sox to carry the East next year, easily. So you can take a team that was out scored by its opponents and improve it to the point where it can compete with a team that out scored its opponents by over 220 runs in a single offseason without compromising its future? And you haven't been hired as a GM yet? Too busy inventing cold fusion?
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Post by boomer on Oct 10, 2015 21:51:08 GMT -5
We need to look in all corners and see who has upside, somewhat young, had a slightly down season.....and has dominant stuff. A guy like Cashner in San Diego for example. He still threw 95 this year comin back from an injury in 2014 (only 19 starts) to throw 186 innings this year. Now his WHIP for the 1st time was around 1.4, but take a look at his numbers in 2013 and 2014. May be a good buy low candidate who can bring it. Now Cashner is just an example, but maybe DD would consider someone like that if the numbers get too big. Jon Gray with Colorado is another example of the kind of young pitcher with upside who is better than their stats and will remain under team control at a bargain price. Tyson Ross was mentioned as a possibly available starter (though really more of a #2). These kinds of pitchers are hard to trade for but the Red Sox have the trade resources to pull such a trade off.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 10, 2015 21:55:14 GMT -5
You guys are half nuts. Now that the team is being run by pros excellent player personnel people people who actually know how to build a team anyone but Ben Cherrington, if you really believe that enough can not be done between now and spring training to supplement the team's already burgeoning talent, you're fooling yourself. I expect the Sox to carry the East next year, easily. So you can take a team that was out scored by its opponents and improve it to the point where it can compete with a team that out scored its opponents by over 220 runs in a single offseason without compromising its future? And you haven't been hired as a GM yet? Too busy inventing cold fusion? In his defense, look at the 2013 to 2014 Red Sox. There's no guarantee that the Jays reproduce this season. And in looking at the 2012-2013 Red Sox, it's certainly possible that they could be markedly better next season. How likely either scenario is (or both combined are) is debatable, but you've got a short memory if you're equating it to cold fusion. That said, the idea of a runaway seems a little far-fetched, and panning Cherington across the board...when he amassed/nurtured/kept the minor league talent the Sox have...seems pretty silly.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 10, 2015 22:05:31 GMT -5
We need to look in all corners and see who has upside, somewhat young, had a slightly down season.....and has dominant stuff. A guy like Cashner in San Diego for example. He still threw 95 this year comin back from an injury in 2014 (only 19 starts) to throw 186 innings this year. Now his WHIP for the 1st time was around 1.4, but take a look at his numbers in 2013 and 2014. May be a good buy low candidate who can bring it. Now Cashner is just an example, but maybe DD would consider someone like that if the numbers get too big. Jon Gray with Colorado is another example of the kind of young pitcher with upside who is better than their stats and will remain under team control at a bargain price. Tyson Ross was mentioned as a possibly available starter (though really more of a #2). These kinds of pitchers are hard to trade for but the Red Sox have the trade resources to pull such a trade off. Gray was the 2013 3rd-overall pick. I doubt Colorado is in a rush to trade him. His stock hasn't slipped (yet). If he struggles next year, I could see the Rockies move him, but probably not until then. I do think he's a great guy to inquire about, though. Can't hurt, and maybe a Margot-centered package gets it done. With his speed/contact and line-drive power, he's an excellent fit for Coors both offensively and defensively. And Gray would probably love to get out of Denver's thin air.
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Post by boomer on Oct 10, 2015 22:18:16 GMT -5
So doesnt a Quintana conversation start with Swihart? Times have changed but the Sox once traded for Dennis Eckersley, Pedro Martinez and Josh Beckett. Their best bet is somebody with more stuff and potential than might have been shown at the major league level early in their careers. Arrietta and Scherzer (Dombrowski's gem) are the kinds of pitchers that Sox scouting resources must find. Pitchers like this (before they are good) are available every year. Jon Gray with his inconsistent start in Colorado is the kind of pitcher they should target. Disappointing Cashner in San Diego is another. The California Angels swiped Andrew Heaney from the Marlins last year. There is somebody out there for the taking if the Sox brain trust does their job right.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 7:22:09 GMT -5
So doesnt a Quintana conversation start with Swihart? Times have changed but the Sox once traded for Dennis Eckersley, Pedro Martinez and Josh Beckett. Their best bet is somebody with more stuff and potential than might have been shown at the major league level early in their careers. Arrietta and Scherzer (Dombrowski's gem) are the kinds of pitchers that Sox scouting resources must find. Pitchers like this (before they are good) are available every year. Jon Gray with his inconsistent start in Colorado is the kind of pitcher they should target. Disappointing Cashner in San Diego is another. The California Angels swiped Andrew Heaney from the Marlins last year. There is somebody out there for the taking if the Sox brain trust does their job right. Let me say this immediately.....I am not Andrew Cashner's agent (or best friend). He is just an example. DD and his band of merry men need to do their jobs. Find lower priced pitchers who have the potential with a tweak or two to be helpful. Who knows....maybe we find the next Jake Arrieta. I'm fine with them working some magic below the top tier if possible. Is it simple or easy? Of course not. There are 4 or 5 pitchers out there right now who will have bounce back years next season or will find a new pitch or motion that will explode their career. It happens every season.....that we say " where did that come from" or " who could've predicted that performance". I'm hopeful that DD and his pro scouts will make some better decisions for us going forward.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 11, 2015 7:35:42 GMT -5
Times have changed but the Sox once traded for Dennis Eckersley, Pedro Martinez and Josh Beckett. Their best bet is somebody with more stuff and potential than might have been shown at the major league level early in their careers. Arrietta and Scherzer (Dombrowski's gem) are the kinds of pitchers that Sox scouting resources must find. Pitchers like this (before they are good) are available every year. Jon Gray with his inconsistent start in Colorado is the kind of pitcher they should target. Disappointing Cashner in San Diego is another. The California Angels swiped Andrew Heaney from the Marlins last year. There is somebody out there for the taking if the Sox brain trust does their job right. Let me say this immediately.....I am not Andrew Cashner's agent (or best friend). He is just an example. DD and his band of merry men need to do their jobs. Find lower priced pitchers who have the potential with a tweak or two to be helpful. Who knows....maybe we find the next Jake Arrieta. I'm fine with them working some magic below the top tier if possible. Is it simple or easy? Of course not. There are 4 or 5 pitchers out there right now who will have bounce back years next season or will find a new pitch or motion that will explode their career. It happens every season.....that we say " where did that come from" or " who could've predicted that performance". I'm hopeful that DD and his pro scouts will make some better decisions for us going forward. On board with this. If we are going to trade prospects, let's mine for someone else's gold...in the high minors or on the cusp.
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Oct 11, 2015 9:13:44 GMT -5
You guys are half nuts. Now that the team is being run by pros excellent player personnel people people who actually know how to build a team anyone but Ben Cherrington, if you really believe that enough can not be done between now and spring training to supplement the team's already burgeoning talent, you're fooling yourself. I expect the Sox to carry the East next year, easily. So you can take a team that was out scored by its opponents and improve it to the point where it can compete with a team that out scored its opponents by over 220 runs in a single offseason without compromising its future? And you haven't been hired as a GM yet? Too busy inventing cold fusion? Come on, this season was a disheveled mess. Three quarters of it was spent finding ways to make the pitching staff work, what to do with failed Ben acquisitions, and how to incorporate his kids. That, and I highly doubt Toronto's big 3 will put up a 18 fWAR again, and their pitching is no better then ours, and their defense worse. Toronto, meet the 1986 Red Sox. We need a starter or 2 and we'll be the most complete team in the league. Young too (Thanx Ben, for that and that alone).
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 11, 2015 12:09:29 GMT -5
You guys (I'm including the folks who liked the rebuttal) were just skimming, right? Because I never quoted a WAR figure in that post. Those numbers are rotation slot numbers, the metric I just invented, where Miley's a 3.7 (70% of the way from the 2nd / 3rd starter border to the 3rd / 4th starter border, i.e., a somewhat below average 3rd starter). And he'll never, ever get any better. I want to trade him and obtain an average #2 starter (2.5) with really good upside, or a borderline 2/3 starter (3.0) with great upside, or maybe even an average 3 starter (3.5) with crazy, mouth-watering upside. An upgrade from Miley to an average 2 starter would be 1.4 bWAR per 30 starts. Plus more years of control. And did I mention upside? I want a guy that DDo thinks may well become an ace. The point is that that doesn't have to happen next year.
Breakdown of the origin of the top 15 pitchers in MLB last year: 8 Homegrown 3 Traded as prospects (Carrasco, Kluber, Archer) 2 Traded as non-aces (Arietta, Scherzer) 2 Traded as aces (Greinke, Price) ` This explains why I think the Red Sox will have a very difficult time trading for a pitcher without seriously compromising their future. If you trade for that younger, slightly better Miley, you will be adding one to two WAR, but the trading team will be expecting compensation for three to four WAR. When you add in that the return on prospects is typically 1/2 that on veterans, you're overpaying. By a lot. It will be very difficult/costly to make the 2016 Red Sox more than a wild card team. There are a lot of potential/ probable two WAR players, but only two likely four WAR players. However, by 2018, when the second wave of young talent arrives, the Red Sox should have a real core of 4 to 6 WAR players to build a half decade of strong contenders. Ericmvan, where do you believe all the IP will come from? Assuming 1,000 965 IP is the goal from your starting rotation. The Miley replacement will I assume also replace his IP, Erod will give you I assume 170+ and so will Porcello. Who else? That's alot of assumptions for players without the track record. DCSoxfan, I have the same concerns you do about mortgaging the future for potential short term gains. If a team continues to do that enough eventually there is no bright future to look to because you eventually have to pay yesterdays loan off. On the other hand part of having a great farm system is to not only bring up the fruit of your labor to the pros but to supplement the weaknesses of the team via trade with prospects,etc when you are ready to contend. You are forgetting the next 'crop' will take a few years to rise up just as Bogaerts and Betts did. So the 2018 wave can't be counted on to 2020 by which time the 2014 crop will be free agent. It's a balance. A balance that more often than not I'd like to see the kids develop a little first (roughly 1,000 AB or 500 IP in the majors before making any major decisions. The win now attitude prevalent in sports/society today is actually counter productive to actually suceeding and for those that don't believe me, see the results damn near everywhere you look, failure surrounds you and that seed was planted in the win at all now cost attitude. It was obvious to me sometime during the middle of the 2014 season the Sox were rebuilding despite SOSH'ers claiming otherwise. Many there drank the kool aid that Boston does not rebuild but when you have a rookie at SS, catcher and CF in the line-up at the same time on a regular basis you are in fact rebuilding no matter what fodder you are being spoon fed. I like to say perception lags behind reality because many people are sheeple incapable of accepting abrupt change or what ever it is we the masses are being sold on. Because we were rebuilding and still had had several potential impact prospects in the minors, I thought it would be prudent to trade off some veterans to help speed up the rebuilding without hindering the future but rather fostering it with major league players who were at least 2 years away from free agency. At this point you'd have a very limited amount of players making any real money, so you then take the excess money and fill in gaps that reveal themselves over the next few seasons, starting with mid level deals like the Sox did before the 2013 season and waiting for the right time to invest in a star player/s. The Sox over relied on youngsters in 2014, and they should know better, that it almost always takes rookies a year to two, and more for several of them, to figure it out. Then instead of trading some veterans for players with only a couple years of experience they doubled down foolishly on overly expensive veterans, Panda and H-Ram. If they had spent money on free agents more in line with the 2013 type deals (3 years deal for 10 to 17 or so per year) and stuck with my plan then they would be at least a year ahead of schedule without the burden of contracts that is Panda and Hanley's deals . You just know baseball operations had to have their sexy signings and once again **** things up and here we are today. Fortunately the farm is largely intact. But if you are going to rebuild you have to wait a year or two or more to see how they develop and if they develop and then you start to fill in gaps. They've already messed up at least a season and I'd argue that it's a season and a half.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 21:13:54 GMT -5
We need a starter or 2 and we'll be the most complete team in the league. Young too (Thanx Ben, for that and that alone). 21 year old Carlos Correa, 24 year old Max Stassi, 25 year old José Altuve, 26 year old George Springer and 27 year old Dallas Keuchel may all beg to differ with you.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 11, 2015 23:18:11 GMT -5
Jon Gray with Colorado is another example of the kind of young pitcher with upside who is better than their stats and will remain under team control at a bargain price. Tyson Ross was mentioned as a possibly available starter (though really more of a #2). These kinds of pitchers are hard to trade for but the Red Sox have the trade resources to pull such a trade off. Gray was the 2013 3rd-overall pick. I doubt Colorado is in a rush to trade him. His stock hasn't slipped (yet). If he struggles next year, I could see the Rockies move him, but probably not until then. I do think he's a great guy to inquire about, though. Can't hurt, and maybe a Margot-centered package gets it done. With his speed/contact and line-drive power, he's an excellent fit for Coors both offensively and defensively. And Gray would probably love to get out of Denver's thin air. I am a huge fan of gray's. I love watching him pitch. Probably too many fly balls to work in Fenway, but as a key part of a three way trade with a team that has a pitcher friendly park, i.e. San Diego, that would be very interesting.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 12, 2015 10:00:48 GMT -5
Right now we have several "good" prospects in low a......imagine in 2 years, we could be looking at the next Correa/Urias/Seager/Springer/Severino/Matz type of players, then what will look like? I know it's a stretch, but with that talent down there, it is at least a good possibilty that we can have 3 or 4 players like that knocking on the door, where as most teams are fortunate to have 1 or 2.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 12, 2015 12:31:19 GMT -5
Gray was the 2013 3rd-overall pick. I doubt Colorado is in a rush to trade him. His stock hasn't slipped (yet). If he struggles next year, I could see the Rockies move him, but probably not until then. I do think he's a great guy to inquire about, though. Can't hurt, and maybe a Margot-centered package gets it done. With his speed/contact and line-drive power, he's an excellent fit for Coors both offensively and defensively. And Gray would probably love to get out of Denver's thin air. I am a huge fan of gray's. I love watching him pitch. Probably too many fly balls to work in Fenway, but as a key part of a three way trade with a team that has a pitcher friendly park, i.e. San Diego, that would be very interesting. I actually think Gray might do reasonably well in Fenway because the FB problem area of CF-RCF for him is cavernous in Fenway. I think he's a terrific guy to inquire about, I just don't know that the Rox would really entertain trading him unless they got real surplus value back.
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Post by borisman on Oct 12, 2015 16:11:40 GMT -5
Right now we have several "good" prospects in low a......imagine in 2 years, we could be looking at the next Correa/Urias/Seager/Springer/Severino/Matz type of players, then what will look like? I know it's a stretch, but with that talent down there, it is at least a good possibilty that we can have 3 or 4 players like that knocking on the door, where as most teams are fortunate to have 1 or 2. Hopefully, it'll be 5 or 6, unless some are traded, but there's real potential for 5 studs to go with what's already here.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 12, 2015 17:40:04 GMT -5
I just heard on bluejays radio tht david price and sonny Gray are buddy's and work out together in the offseason.
Price Gray buchholz Rodriguez Porcello
WOW
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 12, 2015 18:38:12 GMT -5
I just heard on bluejays radio tht david price and sonny Gray are buddy's and work out together in the offseason. Price Gray buchholz Rodriguez Porcello WOW They're both Vandy alums. Not surprising. While that might be a killer rotation, I wouldn't build my team around who's buddies with who (or whom?). If they can acquired at reasonable costs, then sure. I'd bet odds of either landing with Sox at less than 50%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2015 22:22:44 GMT -5
I find it amusing that so many people think (hope) the A's will trade Sonny Gray this offseason, based on little more than the fact that Billy Beane traded Josh Donaldson last offseason. Simply stated, it's not happening. And, this is why: (1) Gray won't reach arbitration until after the 2016 season. The soonest he's being traded is the July trade deadline of 2017. He's got plenty of cheap mileage left on him. (2) While Donaldson was traded pre-arbitration, this was done for a few reasons: (a) Donaldson is a Super-Two who had to be paid starting this season, (b) Beane viewed Donaldson as a troublesome player, a fact which is well documented: sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/report--josh-donaldson-clashed-with-billy-beane-before-trade-005754140.html(c) rightly or wrongly, Beane did not value a nearly 30 year old 3rd basemen who prior to this season had had a couple of nice but not spectacular seasons quite as highly as he values a 24 year old bona fide ace of a rotation. Sonny Gray in a Red Sox uniform is a nice thought. I know a few folks here were pulling for him to be available in the draft the year we ended up with Barnes instead. But, again, it's not happening any time soon. Seriously, put the kibosh on this thing - It only smacks of self-delusion.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 12, 2015 23:08:22 GMT -5
I find it amusing that so many people think (hope) the A's will trade Sonny Gray this offseason, based on little more than the fact that Billy Beane traded Josh Donaldson last offseason. Simply stated, it's not happening. And, this is why: (1) Gray won't reach arbitration until after the 2016 season. The soonest he's being traded is the July trade deadline of 2017. He's got plenty of cheap mileage left on him. (2) While Donaldson was traded pre-arbitration, this was done for a few reasons: (a) Donaldson is a Super-Two who had to be paid starting this season, (b) Beane viewed Donaldson as a troublesome player, a fact which is well documented: sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/report--josh-donaldson-clashed-with-billy-beane-before-trade-005754140.html(c) rightly or wrongly, Beane did not value a nearly 30 year old 3rd basemen who prior to this season had had a couple of nice but not spectacular seasons quite as highly as he values a 24 year old bona fide ace of a rotation. Sonny Gray in a Red Sox uniform is a nice thought. I know a few folks here were pulling for him to be available in the draft the year we ended up with Barnes instead. But, again, it's not happening any time soon. Seriously, put the kibosh on this thing - It only smacks of self-delusion. I beg to differ. Factor in the following 1- Beane has a history of trading players at a similar time (Gio Gonzalez / Donaldson). 2- The A's are a poor team with many holes and will make changes. 3- Beane makes all of his decisions based on value and future value. He isn't going to give him away but a slight overpay (the Sox have a lot of excess parts and can afford to do this to fill there biggest hole) It won't be cheap, it may not be the correct move, but DD will be talking to BB and BB will at least look at the possibility of trading Gray. Felix Hernadez is a pipe dream, Gray is not. Its a lot more likely that Gray will be moved than Sale or Kluber or Felix or Degrom. I'm not saying that Gray will be on the block, just that the A's will defiantly look at all options and there biggest chip is Gray. I think an offer of swihart, Marrero, Owens and Miley would get BBs attention.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2015 23:44:45 GMT -5
I find it amusing that so many people think (hope) the A's will trade Sonny Gray this offseason, based on little more than the fact that Billy Beane traded Josh Donaldson last offseason. Simply stated, it's not happening. And, this is why: (1) Gray won't reach arbitration until after the 2016 season. The soonest he's being traded is the July trade deadline of 2017. He's got plenty of cheap mileage left on him. (2) While Donaldson was traded pre-arbitration, this was done for a few reasons: (a) Donaldson is a Super-Two who had to be paid starting this season, (b) Beane viewed Donaldson as a troublesome player, a fact which is well documented: sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/report--josh-donaldson-clashed-with-billy-beane-before-trade-005754140.html(c) rightly or wrongly, Beane did not value a nearly 30 year old 3rd basemen who prior to this season had had a couple of nice but not spectacular seasons quite as highly as he values a 24 year old bona fide ace of a rotation. Sonny Gray in a Red Sox uniform is a nice thought. I know a few folks here were pulling for him to be available in the draft the year we ended up with Barnes instead. But, again, it's not happening any time soon. Seriously, put the kibosh on this thing - It only smacks of self-delusion. I beg to differ. Factor in the following 1- Beane has a history of trading players at a similar time (Gio Gonzalez / Donaldson). 2- The A's are a poor team with many holes and will make changes. 3- Beane makes all of his decisions based on value and future value. He isn't going to give him away but a slight overpay (the Sox have a lot of excess parts and can afford to do this to fill there biggest hole) It won't be cheap, it may not be the correct move, but DD will be talking to BB and BB will at least look at the possibility of trading Gray. Felix Hernadez is a pipe dream, Gray is not. Its a lot more likely that Gray will be moved than Sale or Kluber or Felix or Degrom. I'm not saying that Gray will be on the block, just that the A's will defiantly look at all options and there biggest chip is Gray. I think an offer of swihart, Marrero, Owens and Miley would get BBs attention. I don't think that offer gets his attention too much. I can believe that Beane would be interested in Swihart. He might be interested in Owens, too. Can't see why he'd be that interested in Marrero, and Miley on a rebuilding team undergoing a youth movement doesn't make too much sense. If I were Beane and I had an asset like Gray that I didn't have to trade I'd want Espinoza or Moncada in that deal, too.
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