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Acquiring an Ace: FA or Trade?
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Post by myleskennefick on Oct 13, 2015 0:37:21 GMT -5
Times have changed but the Sox once traded for Dennis Eckersley, Pedro Martinez and Josh Beckett. Their best bet is somebody with more stuff and potential than might have been shown at the major league level early in their careers. Arrietta and Scherzer (Dombrowski's gem) are the kinds of pitchers that Sox scouting resources must find. Pitchers like this (before they are good) are available every year. Jon Gray with his inconsistent start in Colorado is the kind of pitcher they should target. Disappointing Cashner in San Diego is another. The California Angels swiped Andrew Heaney from the Marlins last year. There is somebody out there for the taking if the Sox brain trust does their job right. Let me say this immediately.....I am not Andrew Cashner's agent (or best friend). He is just an example. DD and his band of merry men need to do their jobs. Find lower priced pitchers who have the potential with a tweak or two to be helpful. Who knows....maybe we find the next Jake Arrieta. I'm fine with them working some magic below the top tier if possible. Is it simple or easy? Of course not. There are 4 or 5 pitchers out there right now who will have bounce back years next season or will find a new pitch or motion that will explode their career. It happens every season.....that we say " where did that come from" or " who could've predicted that performance". I'm hopeful that DD and his pro scouts will make some better decisions for us going forward. How about Trevor Bauer of the Indians? I haven't looked too deeply into it, but his development seems to have a lot in common with Scherzer's. One time top prospect with great stuff but a walks problem. There is obvious downside but he's someone that could be "on the cusp" and would come cheaper than Carrasco or probably even Salazar.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 1:35:12 GMT -5
I find it amusing that so many people think (hope) the A's will trade Sonny Gray this offseason, based on little more than the fact that Billy Beane traded Josh Donaldson last offseason. Simply stated, it's not happening. And, this is why: (1) Gray won't reach arbitration until after the 2016 season. The soonest he's being traded is the July trade deadline of 2017. He's got plenty of cheap mileage left on him. (2) While Donaldson was traded pre-arbitration, this was done for a few reasons: (a) Donaldson is a Super-Two who had to be paid starting this season, (b) Beane viewed Donaldson as a troublesome player, a fact which is well documented: sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/report--josh-donaldson-clashed-with-billy-beane-before-trade-005754140.html(c) rightly or wrongly, Beane did not value a nearly 30 year old 3rd basemen who prior to this season had had a couple of nice but not spectacular seasons quite as highly as he values a 24 year old bona fide ace of a rotation. Sonny Gray in a Red Sox uniform is a nice thought. I know a few folks here were pulling for him to be available in the draft the year we ended up with Barnes instead. But, again, it's not happening any time soon. Seriously, put the kibosh on this thing - It only smacks of self-delusion. I beg to differ. Factor in the following 1- Beane has a history of trading players at a similar time (Gio Gonzalez / Donaldson). 2- The A's are a poor team with many holes and will make changes. 3- Beane makes all of his decisions based on value and future value. He isn't going to give him away but a slight overpay (the Sox have a lot of excess parts and can afford to do this to fill there biggest hole) It won't be cheap, it may not be the correct move, but DD will be talking to BB and BB will at least look at the possibility of trading Gray. Felix Hernadez is a pipe dream, Gray is not. Its a lot more likely that Gray will be moved than Sale or Kluber or Felix or Degrom. I'm not saying that Gray will be on the block, just that the A's will defiantly look at all options and there biggest chip is Gray. I think an offer of swihart, Marrero, Owens and Miley would get BBs attention. Again, dream on. I live in the Bay Area. I hear Beane talk about the team all the time. I haven't detected anything that remotely suggests Gray would be traded this offseason. Yes, Beane has his price for every player. But, the package it would take to get Sonny Gray with 4 years remaining of team control isn't a package anyone here could stomach. To begin with, you'd have to part with two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza and Benintendi. Then, on top of that, I could see Beane wanting JBJ. Finally, despite what anyone else might say, I think Marrero is a player the A's might very well value.
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Post by jclmontana on Oct 13, 2015 11:04:27 GMT -5
I am interested to see what Cueto does in game 5 of the ALDS. Given his performance over the last few months, my assumption is that he is hurt. And given that he had elbow troubles earlier in the year, I could see a scenario where he signs a shorter contract, with big dollar team-option years, then goes under the knife and misses all of 2016. This is all assumption, conjecture, and weak analogy, but I am reminded how inexplicably bad Lackey was in 2011, and then, after the season ended, finding out his elbow was shredded.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 13, 2015 11:06:38 GMT -5
I'd assume that for the first time in his career, he isn't in the worst hitting division of the NL and is performing closer to what his peripherals would indicate. Cueto is overrated and injury prone. I wouldn't even consider him an option.
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Post by slam761 on Oct 13, 2015 13:05:13 GMT -5
Let me say this immediately.....I am not Andrew Cashner's agent (or best friend). He is just an example. DD and his band of merry men need to do their jobs. Find lower priced pitchers who have the potential with a tweak or two to be helpful. Who knows....maybe we find the next Jake Arrieta. I'm fine with them working some magic below the top tier if possible. Is it simple or easy? Of course not. There are 4 or 5 pitchers out there right now who will have bounce back years next season or will find a new pitch or motion that will explode their career. It happens every season.....that we say " where did that come from" or " who could've predicted that performance". I'm hopeful that DD and his pro scouts will make some better decisions for us going forward. How about Trevor Bauer of the Indians? I haven't looked too deeply into it, but his development seems to have a lot in common with Scherzer's. One time top prospect with great stuff but a walks problem. There is obvious downside but he's someone that could be "on the cusp" and would come cheaper than Carrasco or probably even Salazar. Bauer is nothing like Scherzer. Bauer's stuff is mediocre at best and even he admits that.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2015 13:34:04 GMT -5
How about Trevor Bauer of the Indians? I haven't looked too deeply into it, but his development seems to have a lot in common with Scherzer's. One time top prospect with great stuff but a walks problem. There is obvious downside but he's someone that could be "on the cusp" and would come cheaper than Carrasco or probably even Salazar. Bauer is nothing like Scherzer. Bauer's stuff is mediocre at best and even he admits that. Over his career, Bauer's fastball has averaged 93.2, per PITCHf/x. That's not too dissimilar from Scherzer's career 93.5 average. He's also generally been described as having a plus curveball and an average slider/changeup ( example one, example two). He's absolutely a plus stuff guy.
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 13, 2015 13:41:48 GMT -5
Thinking about DD's stated preference for hard-throwers, I took a look at who had the highest average fastball velocity in 2015, and filtered out all of the players who, in my informed opinion, are not at all available. Interesting group of free agents and players who have had their names come up in trade rumors in the past few months:
Matt Harvey 95.9 Andrew Cashner 94.8 Danny Salazar 94.8 Carlos Carrasco 94.5 Jeff Samardzija 94.2 David Price 94.2 Edinson Volquez 93.7 Jordan Zimmermann 93.0 Sonny Gray 92.9 Tyson Ross 92.8 Trevor Bauer 92.8 Alfredo Simon 92.7 Johnny Cueto 92.5 Tom Koehler 92.1
I realize that there is more that goes into a pitcher's scouting report than average fastball velocity...but, I thought this was an interesting way to look at candidates that could fit the mold of an off-season target.
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Post by borisman on Oct 13, 2015 15:43:58 GMT -5
I think DD's preference for hard-throwers is a little more relevant to the bullpen than SP's. I wouldn't mind a bullpen with Harvey and Cashner at the back end tho...and can we throw Chapman in between also
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 13, 2015 15:59:55 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 13, 2015 16:15:31 GMT -5
Thinking about DD's stated preference for hard-throwers, I took a look at who had the highest average fastball velocity in 2015, and filtered out all of the players who, in my informed opinion, are not at all available. Interesting group of free agents and players who have had their names come up in trade rumors in the past few months: Matt Harvey 95.9 Andrew Cashner 94.8 Danny Salazar 94.8 Carlos Carrasco 94.5 Jeff Samardzija 94.2 David Price 94.2 Edinson Volquez 93.7 Jordan Zimmermann 93.0 Sonny Gray 92.9 Tyson Ross 92.8 Trevor Bauer 92.8 Alfredo Simon 92.7 Johnny Cueto 92.5 Tom Koehler 92.1 I realize that there is more that goes into a pitcher's scouting report than average fastball velocity...but, I thought this was an interesting way to look at candidates that could fit the mold of an off-season target. Considering that the average velocity of most Sox pitchers (including RP's) is well under the bottom end of that list, combined with Dave's stated opinions on velo, he may see the need for significant change. Such change will, as you imply, not be based on velo alone, but it will be an important element in the decision making process. I wonder if this puts a more positive, possibly salvific Hot Stove and ST spin/bias on potentially good pitchers like Kelly,Taz, Barnes, Light and less so on guys like Owens, Johnson, Wright, Koji?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 13, 2015 16:37:53 GMT -5
On Bauer. I like his stuff, and think he's very smart, but he really has struggled with command his whole career and tinkers with his mechanics a little too often for my liking. Given where he's currently at, he's not a fit here.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 13, 2015 17:21:17 GMT -5
How about Trevor Bauer of the Indians? I haven't looked too deeply into it, but his development seems to have a lot in common with Scherzer's. One time top prospect with great stuff but a walks problem. There is obvious downside but he's someone that could be "on the cusp" and would come cheaper than Carrasco or probably even Salazar. Bauer is nothing like Scherzer. Bauer's stuff is mediocre at best and even he admits that. An objective perusal would disagree with you: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12703&position=PBauer has a career .241 BAA, and five pitches, with at least two plus pitches in his FB and CB. He's also exceptionally intelligent, which might actually be part if his problem. He seems to have a tendency to overthink situations, and he's very tough on himself from the quotes I've read. His problem is BB and HR, not pure stuff. At 24, he is probably on the cusp of a breakout, if he's going to do it. Great buy-low candidate, on a well-stocked team. Ed: for stupid autocorrect
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 13, 2015 17:53:07 GMT -5
... Considering that the average velocity of most Sox pitchers (including RP's) is well under the bottom end of that list, combined with Dave's stated opinions on velo, he may see the need for significant change. Such change will, as you imply, not be based on velo alone, but it will be an important element in the decision making process. ... Thanks for putting "most" in there. Rodriguez is a fireballer, and everyone's favorite whipping boy, Kelly, regularly launches his heat at 97 mph. Even Hembree pumps it in at 95. You might meditate on the meaning of those numbers.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 21:04:46 GMT -5
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 13, 2015 21:50:57 GMT -5
Thanks for putting "most" in there. Rodriguez is a fireballer, and everyone's favorite whipping boy, Kelly, regularly launches his heat at 97 mph. Even Hembree pumps it in at 95. You might meditate on the meaning of those numbers. 3 of the worst in baseball at getting swings and misses on fastballs
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 14, 2015 1:59:16 GMT -5
... Considering that the average velocity of most Sox pitchers (including RP's) is well under the bottom end of that list, combined with Dave's stated opinions on velo, he may see the need for significant change. Such change will, as you imply, not be based on velo alone, but it will be an important element in the decision making process. ... Thanks for putting "most" in there. Rodriguez is a fireballer, and everyone's favorite whipping boy, Kelly, regularly launches his heat at 97 mph. Even Hembree pumps it in at 95. You might meditate on the meaning of those numbers. Interestingly, using velo optics (and his other awesome stuff, and recent success with it), Kelly may not be anyone's whipping boy much longer. We can only wonder what his role will be. Obvioisly he was not part of the "most", nor were ERod, Hembree, Light. But that "most" would include Porcello, Miley, Owens, Johnson, Wright, Koji, probably Buchholz and Ross, maybe Taz, and a few more. I am hoping "most" of them are still wearing Red Sox in ST.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 14, 2015 2:17:12 GMT -5
Did you buy a "Jump to Conclusions??" I thought it was only I the prototype phase. Then again, Office Space is a pretty old movie... I put zero stock in that foolishness. Kind of like the "JBJ doesn't listen" tripe that was floated around the Boston media last year.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 14, 2015 2:23:52 GMT -5
Thanks for putting "most" in there. Rodriguez is a fireballer, and everyone's favorite whipping boy, Kelly, regularly launches his heat at 97 mph. Even Hembree pumps it in at 95. You might meditate on the meaning of those numbers. Interestingly, using velo optics (and his other awesome stuff, and recent success with it), Kelly may not be anyone's whipping boy much longer. We can only wonder what his role will be. Obvioisly he was not part of the "most", nor were ERod, Hembree, Light. But that "most" would include Porcello, Miley, Owens, Johnson, Wright, Koji, probably Buchholz and Ross, maybe Taz, and a few more. I am hoping "most" of them are still wearing Red Sox in ST. Tazawa and Buchholz still both hit 96. Taz works 93-96, actually. And Dallas Keuchel, who's a good Cy bet this year, averages 89.5 or so. I'm not so concerned with velocity as command and repertoire. Good velocity is a talent, but it's useless unless it's in the right context. Velocity is more hyped than even raw power.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 14, 2015 2:34:22 GMT -5
Did you buy a "Jump to Conclusions??" I thought it was only I the prototype phase. Then again, Office Space is a pretty old movie... I put zero stock in that foolishness. Kind of like the "JBJ doesn't listen" tripe that was floated around the Boston media last year. Thank you. Sometimes reading media or actually paying attention to talking heads makes me feel dirty. There are exceptions.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2015 3:04:40 GMT -5
Did you buy a "Jump to Conclusions??" I thought it was only I the prototype phase. Then again, Office Space is a pretty old movie... I put zero stock in that foolishness. Kind of like the "JBJ doesn't listen" tripe that was floated around the Boston media last year. Thank you. Sometimes reading media or actually paying attention to talking heads makes me feel dirty. There are exceptions. Yeah, that's right. Just ignore everything you read. Maybe that's how we went from saying "good riddance" when Hanley was traded to the Marlins to welcoming him with open arms last offseason. Right now, outside of Hanley and Pablo, the clubhouse doesn't have any problem children. No need to go looking for a third amigo.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 14, 2015 6:50:48 GMT -5
So you believe everything you read?
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 14, 2015 7:24:01 GMT -5
A "clubhouse cancer"? The article, which is two and a half years old, highlights his hardheadedness and unwillingness to take direction. When I think of clubhouse cancers I think of guys who cause friction among teammates and incite anti management attitudes. While Bauer's reluctance to change his habits may still prevail, I'd like to see more information, especially more recent reports, before I draw any conclusions. Sometimes youngsters grow up.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 14, 2015 9:11:59 GMT -5
Still trying to figure out why GMs would trade Gray, Carrasco, Salazar, de Grom (though not Harvey, who seems to have worn out his welcome, but who will still be prospect expensive), and a couple of the other names that keep coming up. My sense is that to acquire any of these you're looking at a pretty decent prospect overpay unless the opposing GM has seriously overvalued a particular Sox prospect or two. Think Swihart plus two of Devers, Margot, Espinosa, Kopech. That's just my opinion looking from the other GMs perspective, if he's willing to deal at all.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 14, 2015 9:17:46 GMT -5
I beg to differ. Factor in the following 1- Beane has a history of trading players at a similar time (Gio Gonzalez / Donaldson). 2- The A's are a poor team with many holes and will make changes. 3- Beane makes all of his decisions based on value and future value. He isn't going to give him away but a slight overpay (the Sox have a lot of excess parts and can afford to do this to fill there biggest hole) It won't be cheap, it may not be the correct move, but DD will be talking to BB and BB will at least look at the possibility of trading Gray. Felix Hernadez is a pipe dream, Gray is not. Its a lot more likely that Gray will be moved than Sale or Kluber or Felix or Degrom. I'm not saying that Gray will be on the block, just that the A's will defiantly look at all options and there biggest chip is Gray. I think an offer of swihart, Marrero, Owens and Miley would get BBs attention. Again, dream on. I live in the Bay Area. I hear Beane talk about the team all the time. I haven't detected anything that remotely suggests Gray would be traded this offseason. Yes, Beane has his price for every player. But, the package it would take to get Sonny Gray with 4 years remaining of team control isn't a package anyone here could stomach. To begin with, you'd have to part with two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza and Benintendi. Then, on top of that, I could see Beane wanting JBJ. Finally, despite what anyone else might say, I think Marrero is a player the A's might very well value. You're wrong. He could ask for that for Gray, but not one team would pay that much for him, and not many could. Grays overrated as is, I'm sure it's nuts out in the Bay Area. Regardless, I'm not even worried about Gray and I don't see us getting too serious in talks for him unless its something like the Donaldson package. I wouldn't trade any of Devers, Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, Swihart or Rodriguez for him. Something built around Margot or JBJ would be fine. If we traded for him he would probably put up a 3.8-4 ERA here and everyone would cry about how much of a disappointment he is, even though in reality he's the same pitcher he was in Oakland.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 14, 2015 9:30:24 GMT -5
Again, dream on. I live in the Bay Area. I hear Beane talk about the team all the time. I haven't detected anything that remotely suggests Gray would be traded this offseason. Yes, Beane has his price for every player. But, the package it would take to get Sonny Gray with 4 years remaining of team control isn't a package anyone here could stomach. To begin with, you'd have to part with two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza and Benintendi. Then, on top of that, I could see Beane wanting JBJ. Finally, despite what anyone else might say, I think Marrero is a player the A's might very well value. You're wrong. He could ask for that for Gray, but not one team would pay that much for him, and not many could. Grays overrated as is, I'm sure it's nuts out in the Bay Area. Regardless, I'm not even worried about Gray and I don't see us getting too serious in talks for him unless its something like the Donaldson package. I wouldn't trade any of Devers, Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, Swihart or Rodriguez for him. Something built around Margot or JBJ would be fine. If we traded for him he would probably put up a 3.8-4 ERA here and everyone would cry about how much of a disappointment he is, even though in reality he's the same pitcher he was in Oakland. I agree that Gray is overrated, but let me point out that his FIP and xFIP are higher at home than away for his career. He has a pretty reasonable HR/FB% and pretty elite GB%. Gray just had his best season and he's barely in the top 10 for AL pitchers. He's not anywhere close to as good as Donaldson.
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