SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:02:06 GMT -5
I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute. Castillo has less of a track record than Markakis or Cabrera, but he's considerably younger and has a good amount of upside/prime years left. Austin Jackson is a good comp; over the last three years, Jackson's at .265/.319/.382 (96 wRC+), 2.1 fWAR per 600 PAs, compared to Castillo's .262/.302/.379 (83 wRC+), 2.4 fWAR per 600 PAs in the majors so far. I think Jackson will end up getting something like 3/$36m, in which case it's not much of a jump to get to 5/$56.5. Not much of a jump? You people are insane. Tacking on 2 years in any contract is a BIG JUMP. This team would have Lester if they made what you guys call "a little jump" haha
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2015 21:22:11 GMT -5
It's two extra years at a lower AAV for his age 31 and 32 seasons. When you're talking about signing a 28-year-old, there's not a huge difference between 3/$36m and 5/$56.5m.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:24:51 GMT -5
It's two extra years at a lower AAV for his age 31 and 32 seasons. When you're talking about signing a 28-year-old, there's not a huge difference between 3/$36m and 5/$56.5m. Lol keep telling yourself that.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 12, 2015 9:36:10 GMT -5
Back to the title of the post...With Brantley out till almost the all-star break, I can't see why they would not want a subsidized Hanley as their FT DH....their line-up is down to what, 2 guys that can strike any fear into a pitcher....Hanley at the least can give them that. They may pay 50% of his salary, any more than that, I'd say we keep him & roll the dice. Sandoval is the one I'd prefer to move. Marrero would outperform him.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2015 13:29:44 GMT -5
Back to the title of the post...With Brantley out till almost the all-star break, I can't see why they would not want a subsidized Hanley as their FT DH....their line-up is down to what, 2 guys that can strike any fear into a pitcher....Hanley at the least can give them that. They may pay 50% of his salary, any more than that, I'd say we keep him & roll the dice. Sandoval is the one I'd prefer to move. Marrero would outperform him. I doubt the Indians want Hanley unless the Sox subsidize about 85% of his salary. Hanley at $11 million/year (50% subsidy) is still a gamble. He has three more years, didn't hit last year, was injured and is injury prone, and there are still questions about his makeup. That is a gamble, something that Cleveland would not likely give up value for. Hanley at $3.3 is a gamble worth taking. However the Sox aren't going to pay $18.7 million/year and watch Hanley rebound as a DH. If the Sox want their starting pitcher from Cleveland, JBJ is more likely to have value to Cleveland than Hanley, by a lot.
|
|
|
Post by mandelbro on Nov 12, 2015 13:46:57 GMT -5
It's two extra years at a lower AAV for his age 31 and 32 seasons. When you're talking about signing a 28-year-old, there's not a huge difference between 3/$36m and 5/$56.5m. An all glove/no bat OF is something which a lot of teams have in the minors or on their team. Such players are relatively available commodities. Is the upgrade from that guy to Castillo (the same guy but with the toolsy label and some latent upside) worth $10 million a year? Castillo isn't a bad contract, but that doesn't make him a tradeable one. Because a prospective trade partner isn't judging the value of the contract in a vacuum. They're comparing it to alternatives, and alternative ways to spend the money. I agree that Castillo's cost can be justified. I just have a hard time buying that a team wouldn't rather just use some replacement level type in AAA and spend the money elsewhere.
|
|
|
Post by jiant2520 on Nov 12, 2015 15:01:18 GMT -5
I would love to trade Ramirez to Cleveland, or anyone, but were probably not getting much more than a good reliever or some outfield depth. No way we get Carrasco, let alone having them take on the contracts of Buchholz and Castillo. We need to hold on to Castillo and hope he improves. Buchholz may get traded, but those injury questions really limit his value. We should keep him as our #3 and take the 20 starts.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 15:13:13 GMT -5
It's two extra years at a lower AAV for his age 31 and 32 seasons. When you're talking about signing a 28-year-old, there's not a huge difference between 3/$36m and 5/$56.5m. An all glove/no bat OF is something which a lot of teams have in the minors or on their team. Such players are relatively available commodities. Is the upgrade from that guy to Castillo (the same guy but with the toolsy label and some latent upside) worth $10 million a year? Castillo isn't a bad contract, but that doesn't make him a tradeable one. Because a prospective trade partner isn't judging the value of the contract in a vacuum. They're comparing it to alternatives, and alternative ways to spend the money. I agree that Castillo's cost can be justified. I just have a hard time buying that a team wouldn't rather just use some replacement level type in AAA and spend the money elsewhere. I think you're exaggerating the degree to which teams can pull ~1.5 win players out of a hat. There's a tendency to lump together all below-average guys in one category, but Castillo is a good bit better than the Darnell McDonalds of the world. For instance, Castillo's not a no-bat guy-- he makes enough contact and has enough power to be a respectable (if below-average) hitter. Guys who can do that and play average-to-better CF defense don't grow on trees.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Nov 12, 2015 15:44:02 GMT -5
Castillo is a replacement level to average starter quality player signed long term. He's someone I would trade for a reliever like Giles, maybe throw in some money to subsidize his contract a bit. He's easily replaceable and doesn't have nearly as much upside as people give him credit for.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 17:38:26 GMT -5
Castillo is a replacement level to average starter quality player signed long term. He's someone I would trade for a reliever like Giles, maybe throw in some money to subsidize his contract a bit. He's easily replaceable and doesn't have nearly as much upside as people give him credit for. Why in god's name would the Phillies do that lol
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2015 20:49:00 GMT -5
Castillo is a replacement level to average starter quality player signed long term. He's someone I would trade for a reliever like Giles, maybe throw in some money to subsidize his contract a bit. He's easily replaceable and doesn't have nearly as much upside as people give him credit for. Why in god's name would the Phillies do that lol They wouldn't.
|
|
|
Post by mandelbro on Nov 13, 2015 0:26:38 GMT -5
An all glove/no bat OF is something which a lot of teams have in the minors or on their team. Such players are relatively available commodities. Is the upgrade from that guy to Castillo (the same guy but with the toolsy label and some latent upside) worth $10 million a year? Castillo isn't a bad contract, but that doesn't make him a tradeable one. Because a prospective trade partner isn't judging the value of the contract in a vacuum. They're comparing it to alternatives, and alternative ways to spend the money. I agree that Castillo's cost can be justified. I just have a hard time buying that a team wouldn't rather just use some replacement level type in AAA and spend the money elsewhere. I think you're exaggerating the degree to which teams can pull ~1.5 win players out of a hat. There's a tendency to lump together all below-average guys in one category, but Castillo is a good bit better than the Darnell McDonalds of the world. For instance, Castillo's not a no-bat guy-- he makes enough contact and has enough power to be a respectable (if below-average) hitter. Guys who can do that and play average-to-better CF defense don't grow on trees. Why is Castillo not a no-bat guy? His 2015 performance was less than ideal. .253/.288/.359 and a wRC+ of 72. I'd consider that kind of line no-bat, 9-hitter territory. There appear to be fundamental reasons he has struggled, namely the groundball tendency that seems mechanical in nature. He's a dreadful baserunner and not quick out of the box to steal singles on his groundballs. He's a free swinger who doesn't have much of a plan at the plate. Takes strikes and swings at breaking balls. I don't think 1.5 wins is Castillo's median. That's the upside. The median is more like 1 win and the floor something like 0.5 wins as far as I can tell. Hope I'm wrong if he's here to stay. 1 win at $10M is not that bad if you look at what a win generally costs on the open market but I wouldn't like it if I were another club either.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 1:36:09 GMT -5
An all glove/no bat OF is something which a lot of teams have in the minors or on their team. Such players are relatively available commodities. Is the upgrade from that guy to Castillo (the same guy but with the toolsy label and some latent upside) worth $10 million a year? Castillo isn't a bad contract, but that doesn't make him a tradeable one. Because a prospective trade partner isn't judging the value of the contract in a vacuum. They're comparing it to alternatives, and alternative ways to spend the money. I agree that Castillo's cost can be justified. I just have a hard time buying that a team wouldn't rather just use some replacement level type in AAA and spend the money elsewhere. I think you're exaggerating the degree to which teams can pull ~1.5 win players out of a hat. There's a tendency to lump together all below-average guys in one category, but Castillo is a good bit better than the Darnell McDonalds of the world. For instance, Castillo's not a no-bat guy-- he makes enough contact and has enough power to be a respectable (if below-average) hitter. Guys who can do that and play average-to-better CF defense don't grow on trees. We seen him appear in 16 games at center. And please point out to me where this "enough power" is. His terrible iso? His god-awful slugging percentage? I'm confused, cause I haven't seen it. And they sorta do grow on trees lol. Franklin Gutierrez just signed a 1 year deal. Rajai Davis will probably get a 2 year deal. De Aza will probably sign a 1 year deal. Dexter Fowler is a far better hitter than Rusney and might not get a 5/60 deal. Rasmus took his QO on a 1 year deal. Austin Jackson might get 3/30. Parra played some center this year. What will he get? 3/24? Denard Span is out there too. Victorino will probably get a 1 year deal and could probably play center if healthy.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 13, 2015 10:08:33 GMT -5
I think you're exaggerating the degree to which teams can pull ~1.5 win players out of a hat. There's a tendency to lump together all below-average guys in one category, but Castillo is a good bit better than the Darnell McDonalds of the world. For instance, Castillo's not a no-bat guy-- he makes enough contact and has enough power to be a respectable (if below-average) hitter. Guys who can do that and play average-to-better CF defense don't grow on trees. We seen him appear in 16 games at center. And please point out to me where this "enough power" is. His terrible iso? His god-awful slugging percentage? I'm confused, cause I haven't seen it. And they sorta do grow on trees lol. Franklin Gutierrez just signed a 1 year deal. Rajai Davis will probably get a 2 year deal. De Aza will probably sign a 1 year deal. Dexter Fowler is a far better hitter than Rusney and might not get a 5/60 deal. Rasmus took his QO on a 1 year deal. Austin Jackson might get 3/30. Parra played some center this year. What will he get? 3/24? Denard Span is out there too. Victorino will probably get a 1 year deal and could probably play center if healthy. I still believe Castillo has more upside than some of those FA you listed. IMO most of those guys have peaked. As it's been said before, Castillo's contract isn't terribly worse than 3/30....if he improves just a bit, may be well worth the deal if not more.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2015 10:15:29 GMT -5
How is he going to improve though? He would have to completely revamp his swing path. You can't be much more than a league average hitter, and likely will be below average, when you hit ground balls at a 60% clip. At his age, making a huge adjustment is improbable.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2015 10:29:28 GMT -5
Why is Castillo not a no-bat guy? His 2015 performance was less than ideal. .253/.288/.359 and a wRC+ of 72. I'd consider that kind of line no-bat, 9-hitter territory. There appear to be fundamental reasons he has struggled, namely the groundball tendency that seems mechanical in nature. He's a dreadful baserunner and not quick out of the box to steal singles on his groundballs. He's a free swinger who doesn't have much of a plan at the plate. Takes strikes and swings at breaking balls. I don't think 1.5 wins is Castillo's median. That's the upside. The median is more like 1 win and the floor something like 0.5 wins as far as I can tell. Hope I'm wrong if he's here to stay. 1 win at $10M is not that bad if you look at what a win generally costs on the open market but I wouldn't like it if I were another club either. You cannot judge Castillo based solely on his 2015 major league line while ignoring (a) his excellent 2014 major league cameo, which raises his aggregate major league line to an 83 wRC+, (b) his .282/.337/.385 (110 wRC+) line in Pawtucket and (c) the scouting reports which justified paying him 7/$72.5m a little over a year ago ( Dan Farnsworth's excellent scouting report on Castillo still rings true to me today). In particular, while he's a worse baserunner than you'd expect because he's slow out of the box and lacks basestealing instincts, his raw speed makes him an averagish baserunner overall (or at least it should once he stops trying to steal so often). Similarly, his flat swing mechanics means his raw power plays down, but he has a swing geared for line drives and hard ground balls (read: a plus BABIP) and still has that plus raw power in the back of his pocket. He has below-average plate discipline, but enough bat speed and bat control to make a good amount of contact despite swinging at a lot of bad pitches. I think he's likely a a 90-95 wRC+ hitter (Steamer projects him for .270/.312/.398 (90 wRC+)), which, combined with average-to-better CF defense (or excellent corner OF defense), makes him a median ~1.5 win player or so. I also think he has upside to be better than that if he improves some combination of his baserunning/plate discipline/swing mechanics.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2015 10:39:09 GMT -5
How is he going to improve though? He would have to completely revamp his swing path. You can't be much more than a league average hitter, and likely will be below average, when you hit ground balls at a 60% clip. At his age, making a huge adjustment is improbable. It's unlikely, but certainly not impossible. J.D. Martinez made a similar adjustment prior to his breakout at age 27, and even incremental improvements would help. Plus, it's possible to be a productive hitter with a similar GB-heavy profile-- see, e.g., Howie Hendrick (last three years: 57% GB, .295/.340/.414 (114 wRC+)), Adam Eaton (last three years: 55.1% GB, .285/.353/.407 (112 wRC+)), Starling Marte (last three years: 50.8% GB, .286/.345/.446 (124 wRC+)).
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2015 11:15:24 GMT -5
How is he going to improve though? He would have to completely revamp his swing path. You can't be much more than a league average hitter, and likely will be below average, when you hit ground balls at a 60% clip. At his age, making a huge adjustment is improbable. It's unlikely, but certainly not impossible. J.D. Martinez made a similar adjustment prior to his breakout at age 27, and even incremental improvements would help. Plus, it's possible to be a productive hitter with a similar GB-heavy profile-- see, e.g., Howie Hendrick (last three years: 57% GB, .295/.340/.414 (114 wRC+)), Adam Eaton (last three years: 55.1% GB, .285/.353/.407 (112 wRC+)), Starling Marte (last three years: 50.8% GB, .286/.345/.446 (124 wRC+)). Huge JDM fan, good read. I know it's possible, but I'm just saying that I don't believe it's probable. Hopefully I'm proven wrong. It's crazy that Castillo didn't hit a single pop up all year.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2015 11:58:08 GMT -5
Yeah, those swing mechanics push down his power, but he should be able to hit for a pretty good average. Even being slow getting out of the box, he's going to hit a bunch of hard ground balls/liners and not many can-of-corn fly balls, and it looks like he's not a dead pull hitter who would get hurt a lot by defensive shifts.
|
|
|
Post by mannofsteele on Nov 13, 2015 12:47:35 GMT -5
The most realistic deal that I can surmise is Hanley Ramirez for Chris Johnson and someone like Dorssys Paulino who has lost some luster but is still only but 20. Add in some filler for $. Johnson is up in 2017 with an option for 2018. While this might be getting low value it's a "dumpster fire" type of move IMO.
|
|
|
Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2015 13:04:10 GMT -5
I don't even see Cleveland as a good match with us for a trade. Yes, Salazar and Carrasco both would be a good fit in our rotation, but Cleveland needs bats. Who do we send over? They don't NEED Swihart, plus he is not a proven hitter at the MLB level... yet. Bogaerts, Betts, Ortiz and Pedroia are not getting traded. Ramirez will require us to pick up most of his salary for the next three years and include a prospect or two. Plus, how many clubs want him on their team... Castillo needs to improve his trade value. Right now we will be selling low. Who is left? Sandoval? Well, he did not hit too well... plus see Ramirez. The guys that can hit on our team we are not trading. I think a third team who wants prospects needs to be involved.... Ramirez is the only player we are willing to trade that can help Cleveland right now. Why would they send away a very good pitcher??
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 13:44:00 GMT -5
We seen him appear in 16 games at center. And please point out to me where this "enough power" is. His terrible iso? His god-awful slugging percentage? I'm confused, cause I haven't seen it. And they sorta do grow on trees lol. Franklin Gutierrez just signed a 1 year deal. Rajai Davis will probably get a 2 year deal. De Aza will probably sign a 1 year deal. Dexter Fowler is a far better hitter than Rusney and might not get a 5/60 deal. Rasmus took his QO on a 1 year deal. Austin Jackson might get 3/30. Parra played some center this year. What will he get? 3/24? Denard Span is out there too. Victorino will probably get a 1 year deal and could probably play center if healthy. I still believe Castillo has more upside than some of those FA you listed. IMO most of those guys have peaked. As it's been said before, Castillo's contract isn't terribly worse than 3/30....if he improves just a bit, may be well worth the deal if not more. Lol, you have to ABSOLUTELY love a guy to trade for a 5 year contract that doesn't include arbitration. And if your argument is "Castillo has more upside and they've peaked" I'm sorry but you're grasping at straws lol. Those guys have proven track records. Them performing to the tune of 1.5 WAR isn't some pipe dream. They've all done it within the last 2 seasons. I don't limit Castillo's ability. He has athleticism. But he needs fundamental mechanical changes. Teams gamble on upside on 1 year deals and with guys who are controlled cheaply. If Castillo suddenly hits .270/.330/.430, then his value shoots way up. We haven't seen that yet, and with his poor approach, we have nothing to assume he will, other than us blindly wishing for it.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 13:46:11 GMT -5
And if anyone honestly expects Castillo to make those adjustments, then he's a guy YOU WANT TO KEEP. YOU HANG ON TO HIM.
You don't sit there and pitch another team on his miraculous turn around hoping to make him their problem. That's the most telling part of this.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2015 14:09:49 GMT -5
I still believe Castillo has more upside than some of those FA you listed. IMO most of those guys have peaked. As it's been said before, Castillo's contract isn't terribly worse than 3/30....if he improves just a bit, may be well worth the deal if not more. Lol, you have to ABSOLUTELY love a guy to trade for a 5 year contract that doesn't include arbitration. And if your argument is "Castillo has more upside and they've peaked" I'm sorry but you're grasping at straws lol. Those guys have proven track records. Them performing to the tune of 1.5 WAR isn't some pipe dream. They've all done it within the last 2 seasons. I don't limit Castillo's ability. He has athleticism. But he needs fundamental mechanical changes. Teams gamble on upside on 1 year deals and with guys who are controlled cheaply. If Castillo suddenly hits .270/.330/.430, then his value shoots way up. We haven't seen that yet, and with his poor approach, we have nothing to assume he will, other than us blindly wishing for it. Using "LOL" when discussing these things is incredibly rude. This is not the WEEI comments section. We're mainly polite and can respectfully disagree with each other on this forum.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 13, 2015 14:12:04 GMT -5
I still believe Castillo has more upside than some of those FA you listed. IMO most of those guys have peaked. As it's been said before, Castillo's contract isn't terribly worse than 3/30....if he improves just a bit, may be well worth the deal if not more. Lol, you have to ABSOLUTELY love a guy to trade for a 5 year contract that doesn't include arbitration. And if your argument is "Castillo has more upside and they've peaked" I'm sorry but you're grasping at straws lol. Those guys have proven track records. Them performing to the tune of 1.5 WAR isn't some pipe dream. They've all done it within the last 2 seasons. I don't limit Castillo's ability. He has athleticism. But he needs fundamental mechanical changes. Teams gamble on upside on 1 year deals and with guys who are controlled cheaply. If Castillo suddenly hits .270/.330/.430, then his value shoots way up. We haven't seen that yet, and with his poor approach, we have nothing to assume he will, other than us blindly wishing for it. I know I responded to a trade scenario, but I was not advocating trading Castillo, I was just saying he has some upside....I agree that we couldn't SELL him to another team on his upside. As far as pure trade value, I agree, he does not have that. Just think he won't be a Sandoval/Ramirez type contract & will come close to/or exceed his contract value.
|
|
|