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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2015 14:24:05 GMT -5
And if your argument is "Castillo has more upside and they've peaked" I'm sorry but you're grasping at straws lol. Those guys have proven track records. Them performing to the tune of 1.5 WAR isn't some pipe dream. They've all done it within the last 2 seasons. The counterpoint to that, of course, is that Castillo is 28 and still in his prime while those other guys are generally entering their decline years.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 14, 2015 12:27:44 GMT -5
Why is Castillo not a no-bat guy? His 2015 performance was less than ideal. .253/.288/.359 and a wRC+ of 72. I'd consider that kind of line no-bat, 9-hitter territory. There appear to be fundamental reasons he has struggled, namely the groundball tendency that seems mechanical in nature. He's a dreadful baserunner and not quick out of the box to steal singles on his groundballs. He's a free swinger who doesn't have much of a plan at the plate. Takes strikes and swings at breaking balls. I don't think 1.5 wins is Castillo's median. That's the upside. The median is more like 1 win and the floor something like 0.5 wins as far as I can tell. Hope I'm wrong if he's here to stay. 1 win at $10M is not that bad if you look at what a win generally costs on the open market but I wouldn't like it if I were another club either. You cannot judge Castillo based solely on his 2015 major league line while ignoring (a) his excellent 2014 major league cameo, which raises his aggregate major league line to an 83 wRC+, (b) his .282/.337/.385 (110 wRC+) line in Pawtucket and (c) the scouting reports which justified paying him 7/$72.5m a little over a year ago ( Dan Farnsworth's excellent scouting report on Castillo still rings true to me today). In particular, while he's a worse baserunner than you'd expect because he's slow out of the box and lacks basestealing instincts, his raw speed makes him an averagish baserunner overall (or at least it should once he stops trying to steal so often). Similarly, his flat swing mechanics means his raw power plays down, but he has a swing geared for line drives and hard ground balls (read: a plus BABIP) and still has that plus raw power in the back of his pocket. He has below-average plate discipline, but enough bat speed and bat control to make a good amount of contact despite swinging at a lot of bad pitches. I think he's likely a a 90-95 wRC+ hitter (Steamer projects him for .270/.312/.398 (90 wRC+)), which, combined with average-to-better CF defense (or excellent corner OF defense), makes him a median ~1.5 win player or so. I also think he has upside to be better than that if he improves some combination of his baserunning/plate discipline/swing mechanics. You're right about his BABIP. If he gets more balls off the ground he'll have a high LD% with his swing. That said I have a hard time believing in his ability to overcome the plate discipline issues. Would you trade him at all? If I were convinced he's likely a 90-95 wRC+ hitter I wouldn't.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 14, 2015 12:57:11 GMT -5
I'm at the point that moving Rusney now would be a mistake. We would be moving him when his value is pretty low. He has some definite tools, and maybe we finally see them next year. I loved the way he played the Monster last year. If he could give us a line like .260/.320/.400 with his glove I'm all in. He seems like a hard working guy, and just raw in the aspects of the game. For example is his base-running. He runs well, but just doesn't have things figured out.
We need, badly, a 4th outfielder. In my opinion, one that bats left would be best so he can do some platooning with Castillo if necessary.
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Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2015 13:05:24 GMT -5
Yeah, I wouldn't trade Castillo unless I was getting something useful in return.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 14, 2015 15:57:39 GMT -5
I'm at the point that moving Rusney now would be a mistake. We would be moving him when his value is pretty low. He has some definite tools, and maybe we finally see them next year. I loved the way he played the Monster last year. If he could give us a line like .260/.320/.400 with his glove I'm all in. He seems like a hard working guy, and just raw in the aspects of the game. For example is his base-running. He runs well, but just doesn't have things figured out. We need, badly, a 4th outfielder. In my opinion, one that bats left would be best so he can do some platooning with Castillo if necessary. The have both Holt and Shaw. Need A RHH as 5th OF to mix with Bradley and come off the bench.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 17:03:14 GMT -5
Keep Castillo and hope he turns it on. Trading him now would be selling low. He is as bad as some make him out to be. I feel this is a nake or break year for him. He still does not have a whole lot of at bats yet... this year we'll know for sure what he is.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 17:04:38 GMT -5
Omg... spelling. He is NOT as bad. This is a MAKE or break year....
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 14, 2015 20:51:56 GMT -5
Omg... spelling. He is NOT as bad. This is a MAKE or break year.... The universe is trying to tell you something
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Post by larrycook on Nov 15, 2015 0:37:09 GMT -5
Think dombrowski could move Hanley to Detroit for Verlander? Swap of bad contracts.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2015 1:26:14 GMT -5
Think dombrowski could move Hanley to Detroit for Verlander? Swap of bad contracts. No. Verlander pitched fine for the Tigers last year. Why would the Tigers want to trade him? They already have a 1b and a DH in Cabrera and V-Mart, so why would they want Hanley? You have to really think about what's in it for the Tigers and there would be absolutely nothing in it for them.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 15, 2015 10:22:38 GMT -5
Omg... spelling. He is NOT as bad. This is a MAKE or break year.... That button to the right has an edit post option.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 15, 2015 12:47:32 GMT -5
Omg... spelling. He is NOT as bad. This is a MAKE or break year.... That button to the right has an edit post option. Lol, thank you.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 16, 2015 10:17:04 GMT -5
Think dombrowski could move Hanley to Detroit for Verlander? Swap of bad contracts. No. Verlander pitched fine for the Tigers last year. Why would the Tigers want to trade him? They already have a 1b and a DH in Cabrera and V-Mart, so why would they want Hanley? You have to really think about what's in it for the Tigers and there would be absolutely nothing in it for them. I don't see a Detroit fit either. Too many DH types & I don't think their offense is a problem. I still see Cleveland or even an Oakland or TB would be a fit. Plenty of teams needing a potential DH middle of the order type bat. I still don't see us paying %75-%85 of Hanley's salary though....He would be more valuable to us at those costs.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 22, 2015 10:42:43 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2015 11:41:52 GMT -5
Davis is going to age horribly with his K rate.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 22, 2015 12:08:00 GMT -5
Davis is going to age horribly with his K rate. He's also a guy that can play a decent OF currently tho.
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Post by ethanbein on Nov 23, 2015 21:04:16 GMT -5
I'm not the only one that this seems absolutely insane to, right...?
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Post by jmei on Nov 23, 2015 21:13:26 GMT -5
To be fair, an NL team with an incumbent first baseman should probably not want Hanley for $11m a year.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 23, 2015 21:35:09 GMT -5
To be fair, an NL team with an incumbent first baseman should probably not want Hanley for $11m a year. They probably also think the Sox can give them 75% at this point
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 29, 2015 13:18:41 GMT -5
I'm seeing Hanley plus 7M in 17, 18 to the Mariners for Trumbo. Hanley gives Dipoto a name to hold up and follow, Cano and Cruz, Sox get 15M of payroll relief, and a power hitting 1B, or RH corner OF. Cost becomes 15M per year for Seattle.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Nov 29, 2015 15:09:39 GMT -5
I'm seeing Hanley plus 7M in 17, 18 to the Mariners for Trumbo. Hanley gives Dipoto a name to hold up and follow, Cano and Cruz, Sox get 15M of payroll relief, and a power hitting 1B, or RH corner OF. Cost becomes 15M per year for Seattle. I don't know if that would be an exact deal, but that could work whereas Trumbo fills as the RHH 4th Outfielder (and/or platoon with Travis Shaw) DDom is looking for while Travis Shaw slides in at first (barring any Chris Davis/Freddie Freeman move). The Mariners acquire another bat to play first and DH batting behind Cano and Cruz. They also played all played together during the WBC a few years ago.
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 29, 2015 16:00:50 GMT -5
Gives Cano another DR homeboy to increase his comfort level.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 29, 2015 18:44:48 GMT -5
Umm... can they keep the godawful Mark Trumbo? I'd rather keep Hanley.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 30, 2015 8:04:24 GMT -5
Umm... can they keep the godawful Mark Trumbo? I'd rather keep Hanley. It would be a salary dump. Who cares who we get back? He could even be non-tendered. Trumbo rakes vs. LHP and that would be useful. He can also play an averigish 1B and a not as awful as Hanley LF.
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