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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 6, 2015 10:03:28 GMT -5
I've always looked at the Cleveland Indians as a great match-up for us this winter. Few organizations have such solid young arms in their rotation with reasonable contracts like them. I, of course, like Kluber, but that is probably not happening. I mentioned here about Salazar already. This trade would include Carlos Carrasco as our primary target.
What do the Indians not have? What would give them a chance in their stacked division? They do have some nice pieces other than their rotation and Cody Allen (Lindor, Kipnis, and Brantley). What they are missing badly is some offense and a centerfielder. We can supply those things if we had some significant money.
I don't want to trade Jackie Bradley at this time, but Rusney Castillo can play a decent center and does have the potential to add some solid offense for the Tribe. Hanley Ramirez is the type of hitter the Indians really cannot afford and let's face it.....he probably wouldn't go to if he had the option. He would fit in perfectly for them as solely a DH. They wouldn't have to worry about whether he knew how to put on a glove.....let alone go out into the field. Yeah Hanley could do just what Hanley wants to do and that is just hit. He would have a much better chance of staying healthy and he even knows Francona (not sure how positive that is?).
Now the Indians would have a possible hole in their rotation if they traded Carrasco to us, so how about we send the Clay Buchholz (he too knows Tito)? This would take care of one of our dilemmas also....namely do we keep hoping he will stay healthy.
I'm proposing the following trade:
Hanley Ramirez, Clay Buchholz, and Rusney Castillo for Carlos Carrasco, Justus Sheffield and we pay 20 million to help cover the contracts of Castillo and, especially, Hanley.
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Post by subwayface on Nov 6, 2015 10:19:27 GMT -5
ixnay. seems like a huge overpay.
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Post by soxcentral on Nov 6, 2015 10:23:44 GMT -5
So the Indians are taking on over $40 million/year in additional salary, and we are subsidizing half annually if I understand you right.
That leaves us with $20 million to spend on an OF and 1B as we just created two holes in our own lineup to fill them. Assuming this is a trade Cleveland would be interested in, who do you propose fills those two holes on our roster for $20 million combined?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 6, 2015 10:48:05 GMT -5
So the Indians are taking on over $40 million/year in additional salary, and we are subsidizing half annually if I understand you right. That leaves us with $20 million to spend on an OF and 1B as we just created two holes in our own lineup to fill them. Assuming this is a trade Cleveland would be interested in, who do you propose fills those two holes on our roster for $20 million combined? Some of us are interested in signing Alex Gordon. I'm OK with that but I'd hate to give up our #1 pick. I personally like Parra. He is still a decent defensive outfielder, has no QO, and is OK offensively. I would seriously think of a 1-year contract for someone like Justin Morneau. I would like us to put A LOT of our focus on the bullpen. O'Day, Lowe, Madson, and maybe Clippard. I like Bastardo as a lefty too. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 6, 2015 13:21:13 GMT -5
So the Indians are taking on over $40 million/year in additional salary, and we are subsidizing half annually if I understand you right. That leaves us with $20 million to spend on an OF and 1B as we just created two holes in our own lineup to fill them. Assuming this is a trade Cleveland would be interested in, who do you propose fills those two holes on our roster for $20 million combined? That wouldn't be a huge problem for the Sox. 1b could be filled by Park or the Sox could simply save the money and give Shaw the starting job and hope Travis is ready by year's end if Shaw struggles. That would leave plenty of money for an OF and it wouldn't have to be Gordon. I have trouble believing the Indians would accept Castillo over Bradley or at least Margot. Castillo has proven nothing at this point. I have trouble believing that Francona would want Hanley Ramirez on his team, but who knows what input he has with the FO now that Shapiro is gone? I think Steve has the framework of a deal that centers on Buchholz and Carrasco with the Sox needing to send Cleveland more value for the secondary pieces than the Indians send the Sox way. I like one of their middle relievers like Shaw or McAllister or Manship. And if Hanley were to be dumped, Cleveland would make as much sense as possible, but I doubt Cleveland would pay even half of that contract. The Sox would have to eat 67 - 75% of that contract I think for Cleveland to want to take a chance on Ramirez. I don't think the Sox have ever liked eating that much money so a player could play for somebody else and potentially do damage. I do think the Indians would want an outfielder and would insist on Bradley if not Margot. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 6, 2015 14:05:12 GMT -5
I would hate to include Jackie Bradley Jr, but if other pieces were inserted back to the Sox, it could become interesting. I do see your point about Francona and Ramirez. Maybe they had an OK relationship back in the day....and Tito can see the tremendous importance of adding a quality bat at DH. The Indians have some talent. They just need more offense to be a real contender.
Yeah it is possible that the Sox would have to send more money than I mentioned above. But man.....it my view it could be worth it.
I don't like Sandoval either, but Hanley is (usually) an elite bat, and Sandoval does play a position and HAS played it OK in the past. I sort of bet he will come back and be an average 3rd baseman next season.
Back to Hanley, his attitude rubs many the wrong way and don't want him around our young talent next year. Maybe Tito can get him to understand that he might be able to hustle playing just one side of the game and not get hurt.
There are so few places he could fit in, but Cleveland could actually use what he hopefully brings to the plate.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 8, 2015 17:59:29 GMT -5
I'm proposing the following trade: Hanley Ramirez, Clay Buchholz, and Rusney Castillo for Carlos Carrasco, Justus Sheffield and we pay 20 million to help cover the contracts of Castillo and, especially, Hanley. This is nuts. No way the Indians would ever take on that much payroll for our detritus lol. The best way to check this trade is to ask yourself, "Do the Cleveland Indians NEED to give up Carrasco to acquire any of these players". The answer is unequivocally, "No." Carrasco is a young, gifted, under control pitcher. You trade that for something good, not 2 players a team would love to get rid of signed to huge money and a oft-injured pitcher. Indians are looking for a established bat. Mookie would fit the bill. JD Martinez, Pollock, Calhoun, Marte are some other guys. Not sure if they'll be able to pry any of those guys away, so maybe they'll look to less established bats like Aaron Judge. But Hanley and Castillo? Come on. |
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Post by jdb on Nov 8, 2015 18:45:16 GMT -5
I think Hanely will be more of a salary dump/swap. I'm thinking the White Sox and Melky Cabrea/Laroche type trade.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 8, 2015 18:54:48 GMT -5
I think Hanely will be more of a salary dump/swap. I'm thinking the White Sox and Melky Cabrea/Laroche type trade. Except that would put the White Sox on the hook for a.) more years and b.) more money |
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 8, 2015 19:49:53 GMT -5
I'm proposing the following trade: Hanley Ramirez, Clay Buchholz, and Rusney Castillo for Carlos Carrasco, Justus Sheffield and we pay 20 million to help cover the contracts of Castillo and, especially, Hanley. This is nuts. No way the Indians would ever take on that much payroll for our detritus lol. The best way to check this trade is to ask yourself, "Do the Cleveland Indians NEED to give up Carrasco to acquire any of these players". The answer is unequivocally, "No." Carrasco is a young, gifted, under control pitcher. You trade that for something good, not 2 players a team would love to get rid of signed to huge money and a oft-injured pitcher. Indians are looking for a established bat. Mookie would fit the bill. JD Martinez, Pollock, Calhoun, Marte are some other guys. Not sure if they'll be able to pry any of those guys away, so maybe they'll look to less established bats like Aaron Judge. But Hanley and Castillo? Come on. Not to nitpick, but Carrasco isn't the usual definition of young and cost-controlled. He's 28, and also has had Tommy John. It isn't like trading for Chris Sale or even Sonny Gray. |
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 8, 2015 20:06:25 GMT -5
This is nuts. No way the Indians would ever take on that much payroll for our detritus lol. The best way to check this trade is to ask yourself, "Do the Cleveland Indians NEED to give up Carrasco to acquire any of these players". The answer is unequivocally, "No." Carrasco is a young, gifted, under control pitcher. You trade that for something good, not 2 players a team would love to get rid of signed to huge money and a oft-injured pitcher. Indians are looking for a established bat. Mookie would fit the bill. JD Martinez, Pollock, Calhoun, Marte are some other guys. Not sure if they'll be able to pry any of those guys away, so maybe they'll look to less established bats like Aaron Judge. But Hanley and Castillo? Come on. Not to nitpick, but Carrasco isn't the usual definition of young and cost-controlled. He's 28, and also has had Tommy John. It isn't like trading for Chris Sale or even Sonny Gray. Sure, but he's under 30, and has 3-5 years of control left (depending on what options are picked up) at what essentially amounts to slightly elevated arbitration numbers. He is a HUGE asset. To think we're going to get him for a group of guys we don't mind losing is nothing short of delusional. To think the Indians are chomping at the bit to get Hanley Ramirez is nuts. The Indians DONT have to make this trade. They can wait a year. They can wait 2 years. It's just insane to think we're going to give them a package of our garbage and land him. It's just not a viable offer they would ever consider, and to go one step further to think that this offer is the best one out there, is just flat out nuts. |
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 8, 2015 20:33:41 GMT -5
Not to nitpick, but Carrasco isn't the usual definition of young and cost-controlled. He's 28, and also has had Tommy John. It isn't like trading for Chris Sale or even Sonny Gray. Sure, but he's under 30, and has 3-5 years of control left (depending on what options are picked up) at what essentially amounts to slightly elevated arbitration numbers. He is a HUGE asset. To think we're going to get him for a group of guys we don't mind losing is nothing short of delusional. To think the Indians are chomping at the bit to get Hanley Ramirez is nuts. The Indians DONT have to make this trade. They can wait a year. They can wait 2 years. It's just insane to think we're going to give them a package of our garbage and land him. It's just not a viable offer they would ever consider, and to go one step further to think that this offer is the best one out there, is just flat out nuts. I definitely would think a package would have to include Margot, especially if we dump Hanley on them. I'd be very willing to offer them (just spitballing here) Margot, Owens, and even Guerra, if it took that, as well as a lower-tier prospect or two if need be. But if they want an MLB-ready bat, maybe they would want Castillo. Can't completely can't that out. But Carrasco is certainly worth a lot and there's definitely no way we can offer an underwhelming package and expect Cleveland to take it. |
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 8, 2015 20:56:25 GMT -5
Sure, but he's under 30, and has 3-5 years of control left (depending on what options are picked up) at what essentially amounts to slightly elevated arbitration numbers. He is a HUGE asset. To think we're going to get him for a group of guys we don't mind losing is nothing short of delusional. To think the Indians are chomping at the bit to get Hanley Ramirez is nuts. The Indians DONT have to make this trade. They can wait a year. They can wait 2 years. It's just insane to think we're going to give them a package of our garbage and land him. It's just not a viable offer they would ever consider, and to go one step further to think that this offer is the best one out there, is just flat out nuts. I definitely would think a package would have to include Margot, especially if we dump Hanley on them. I'd be very willing to offer them (just spitballing here) Margot, Owens, and even Guerra, if it took that, as well as a lower-tier prospect or two if need be. But if they want an MLB-ready bat, maybe they would want Castillo. Can't completely can't that out. But Carrasco is certainly worth a lot and there's definitely no way we can offer an underwhelming package and expect Cleveland to take it. Any deal for Carrasco would be free of Hanley. Indians have payroll restrictions for sure. And Castillo has been baaaaaaaaad. No way he's an MLB-ready bat. He's shown absolutely nothing to assume that. HUGE contract for what amounts to a defensive OF-er. People take chances on guys on one year deals or for league minimum, not guys with 5 years 59+ mill left. The guy had a .288 obp, terrible iso, and a sub .360 slugging. He's just not a major league hitter. He had a 64% ground ball rate last year. And his speed doesn't play because his baserunning is so bad. 4 stolen bags to 5 caught. Gets out of box slowly. He's just a bad player. Could he be phenomenal next year? Sure, but no one is going to sell anyone of value for him until he shows at least something besides godawful baseball. |
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 9, 2015 7:35:41 GMT -5
I definitely would think a package would have to include Margot, especially if we dump Hanley on them. I'd be very willing to offer them (just spitballing here) Margot, Owens, and even Guerra, if it took that, as well as a lower-tier prospect or two if need be. But if they want an MLB-ready bat, maybe they would want Castillo. Can't completely can't that out. But Carrasco is certainly worth a lot and there's definitely no way we can offer an underwhelming package and expect Cleveland to take it. Any deal for Carrasco would be free of Hanley. Indians have payroll restrictions for sure. And Castillo has been baaaaaaaaad. No way he's an MLB-ready bat. He's shown absolutely nothing to assume that. HUGE contract for what amounts to a defensive OF-er. People take chances on guys on one year deals or for league minimum, not guys with 5 years 59+ mill left. The guy had a .288 obp, terrible iso, and a sub .360 slugging. He's just not a major league hitter. He had a 64% ground ball rate last year. And his speed doesn't play because his baserunning is so bad. 4 stolen bags to 5 caught. Gets out of box slowly. He's just a bad player. Could he be phenomenal next year? Sure, but no one is going to sell anyone of value for him until he shows at least something besides godawful baseball. Castillo has been basically a 2 win player over the course of an entire season. That is worth his contract. He's excellent defensively. He has only 329 plate appearances so there is room for upside still. He doesn't have a lot of value, but he doesn't have negative value. You're overstating it. |
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2015 9:00:02 GMT -5
Eh, Castillo might have slight negative value, especially to a low-payroll team. If you put him on waivers right now, he probably gets claimed, but by no more than three or four teams.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 9, 2015 12:47:53 GMT -5
Eh, Castillo might have slight negative value, especially to a low-payroll team. If you put him on waivers right now, he probably gets claimed, but by no more than three or four teams. No chance in hell Castillo would get claimed by even 1 team. No way, no how. He would pass through waivers like **** passes through a goose. You're essentially claiming that 3-4 teams would sign Castillo RIGHT NOW to a 5/61 contract. Not one team would do that. Zero. None. Zilch. |
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2015 14:47:23 GMT -5
Eh, Castillo might have slight negative value, especially to a low-payroll team. If you put him on waivers right now, he probably gets claimed, but by no more than three or four teams. No chance in hell Castillo would get claimed by even 1 team. No way, no how. He would pass through waivers like **** passes through a goose. You're essentially claiming that 3-4 teams would sign Castillo RIGHT NOW to a 5/61 contract. Not one team would do that. Zero. None. Zilch. Repeating your point over and over again without adding any additional analysis is not the best way to make an argument. Castillo is owed 5/$56.5m going forward (with the ability to opt out of his $13.5m salary in 2020) and is 28 years old. In this financial environment, you don't have to be that good of a player to earn that salary. There are legitimate knocks on his offensive production (the high GB% and struggles versus offspeed stuff, particularly versus RHP), but he's still shown the ability to make contact and his defense has been as good as advertised. He only needs to put up ~7.5 wins over those five years to justify that contract, and that's pretty easily doable. Is it a slam dunk? No, which is why I think only a handful of teams would claim him, but you don't have to squint that hard to see him as a potential bargain. |
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 9, 2015 14:54:26 GMT -5
Boy with the news today about Brantley's surgery, the Tribe is really hurting offensively for the first 2 months of 2016! And they BADLY need an outfielder even more.
I still believe Hanley has some real value to other teams, if we pick up 40 to 50% of his owed money. The Indians, even before Brantley went under the knife, needed some real bats. DH is a problem. It is a black hole for their offense.
Don't totally disregard the possibility that an AL team will show interest in Ramirez.
My original post above could see them being intrigued by Buchholtz. We match up well in some areas with them.
Other teams I see us matching up with this winter are:
- the White Sox
- Padres
- Mets
- Nats
- A's
- Cards
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 10, 2015 16:14:17 GMT -5
Nick Markakis at age 31 got 4/44 last year. Melky Cabrera at age 31 got 3/42.
Looking at the Fangraphs crowdsourcing, Austin Jackson's median projection was 3/30. Gerardo Parra's was 3/24. And those tend to come in low.
Maybe Castillo wouldn't quite get 5/56.5 on the open market right now, but that's not a massive overspend by any stretch of the imagination, and he absolutely would get claimed on waivers. From his last call-up on July 27 until the end of the year, he hit .261/.299/.387, which ain't great, but was in a small enough sample size that if you take off his 0-for-14 to end the year, it jumps to .281/.316/.416, which looks a little more palatable.
If he hit the open market, I bet you he'd get something like 8-10M AAV, albeit over 3 seasons rather than 5.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 10, 2015 17:31:48 GMT -5
Nick Markakis at age 31 got 4/44 last year. Melky Cabrera at age 31 got 3/42. Looking at the Fangraphs crowdsourcing, Austin Jackson's median projection was 3/30. Gerardo Parra's was 3/24. And those tend to come in low. Maybe Castillo wouldn't quite get 5/56.5 on the open market right now, but that's not a massive overspend by any stretch of the imagination, and he absolutely would get claimed on waivers. From his last call-up on July 27 until the end of the year, he hit .261/.299/.387, which ain't great, but was in a small enough sample size that if you take off his 0-for-14 to end the year, it jumps to .281/.316/.416, which looks a little more palatable. If he hit the open market, I bet you he'd get something like 8-10M AAV, albeit over 3 seasons rather than 5. You think someone would claim Castillo on waivers at 5/56.5, but you don't think he would get more than 30/3 on the open market. I would think that a guy on the open market would have heavier competition for his services and could elicit a larger contract, but you seem to think teams making waiver claims would offer more, why do you think that is? Would a team panic given the small amount of time to give an offer? Would their guarantee of getting the player lead them to offer more than they would otherwise if they were a free agent? |
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 10, 2015 18:33:42 GMT -5
Serious question - is "had Tommy John surgery" even a bad thing? He's gotten out of the way.
Anyway, I think when proposing Hanley trades for elite talent you have to apply the Schwarber test. Would Cleveland choose Hanley and Castillo over Schwarber? And would the Cubs do it?
The MLB has more than two teams, and a lot of these "Well.... it wouldn't be a BAD deal for them" trade proposals really ignore that fact imo.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 18:44:36 GMT -5
Nick Markakis at age 31 got 4/44 last year. Melky Cabrera at age 31 got 3/42. Looking at the Fangraphs crowdsourcing, Austin Jackson's median projection was 3/30. Gerardo Parra's was 3/24. And those tend to come in low. Maybe Castillo wouldn't quite get 5/56.5 on the open market right now, but that's not a massive overspend by any stretch of the imagination, and he absolutely would get claimed on waivers. From his last call-up on July 27 until the end of the year, he hit .261/.299/.387, which ain't great, but was in a small enough sample size that if you take off his 0-for-14 to end the year, it jumps to .281/.316/.416, which looks a little more palatable. If he hit the open market, I bet you he'd get something like 8-10M AAV, albeit over 3 seasons rather than 5. I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute. |
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 11, 2015 19:01:57 GMT -5
Nick Markakis at age 31 got 4/44 last year. Melky Cabrera at age 31 got 3/42. Looking at the Fangraphs crowdsourcing, Austin Jackson's median projection was 3/30. Gerardo Parra's was 3/24. And those tend to come in low. Maybe Castillo wouldn't quite get 5/56.5 on the open market right now, but that's not a massive overspend by any stretch of the imagination, and he absolutely would get claimed on waivers. From his last call-up on July 27 until the end of the year, he hit .261/.299/.387, which ain't great, but was in a small enough sample size that if you take off his 0-for-14 to end the year, it jumps to .281/.316/.416, which looks a little more palatable. If he hit the open market, I bet you he'd get something like 8-10M AAV, albeit over 3 seasons rather than 5. I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute. You really dislike Rusney Castillo. |
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Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2015 19:15:37 GMT -5
Nick Markakis at age 31 got 4/44 last year. Melky Cabrera at age 31 got 3/42. Looking at the Fangraphs crowdsourcing, Austin Jackson's median projection was 3/30. Gerardo Parra's was 3/24. And those tend to come in low. Maybe Castillo wouldn't quite get 5/56.5 on the open market right now, but that's not a massive overspend by any stretch of the imagination, and he absolutely would get claimed on waivers. From his last call-up on July 27 until the end of the year, he hit .261/.299/.387, which ain't great, but was in a small enough sample size that if you take off his 0-for-14 to end the year, it jumps to .281/.316/.416, which looks a little more palatable. If he hit the open market, I bet you he'd get something like 8-10M AAV, albeit over 3 seasons rather than 5. I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute. Castillo has less of a track record than Markakis or Cabrera, but he's considerably younger and has a good amount of upside/prime years left. Austin Jackson is a good comp; over the last three years, Jackson's at .265/.319/.382 (96 wRC+), 2.1 fWAR per 600 PAs, compared to Castillo's .262/.302/.379 (83 wRC+), 2.4 fWAR per 600 PAs in the majors so far. I think Jackson will end up getting something like 3/$36m, in which case it's not much of a jump to get to 5/$56.5. |
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:01:21 GMT -5
I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute. You really dislike Rusney Castillo. False, I really hope he performs well this year. It's just asking him to pose one hell of a refinement of skills. We haven't even spoke about his ability to stay on the field. Lots of nagging little injuries. Don't sit there and misinterpret it as some sort of axe to grind. You evaluate the guy and you get really good defense paired with bad baserunning and a poor plate approach and inability to hit anything that isn't flat. He has utility for the Sox as a guy who they have invested in and want to see develop. Everything he's shown though thus far offensively has been bad. He needs to significantly change his hitting mechanics so he's not a guy who puts the ball on the ground in the infield 65% of the time. That is a HUGE problem, especially for a guy who has (as of yet) untapped power. If he was in pre-arb years he'd be a really valuable guy. But for the Sox, it's a bad contract right now. |
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