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Post by sox fan in nc on May 23, 2016 10:08:41 GMT -5
Looking at Colorado's pitching staff, I think there's a good chance he gets to 30.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2016 16:30:03 GMT -5
I love this. When you factor in the difference in league BA and the ABs in each individual game, JBJ's streak at 27 is already more impressive than Carty's at 31.
I took the league BA, excluding P and PH, and calculated the odds that a league-average hitter would get at least one hit in that day's number of AB + SF (Carty had 1 SF, JBJ has 0 so far). Multiply the odds of each game together as they accumulate, and you get the odds of a league-average player having a streak that long with those opportunities.
Carty's 31 game streak odds were 223,782 to 1. JBJ's 27 game streak odds are 278,714 to 1.
Given that, it's immensely more impressive than the Hornsby and Heilmann streaks.
First 37 games of Pete Rose's 44-game streak: 253,336 to 1. And he had an 847 OPS in the streak to that point. Rose got a ton of AB's (or rather, ACorkedB's).
Edit: JBJ has already had 10 games with 3 AB, and 2 with 2 AB. Rose had 5 and 2 in his 44 games. That's 44% of his games versus 16%.
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Post by jimed14 on May 24, 2016 16:55:46 GMT -5
Did Rose cork his bat? I never heard that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2016 17:36:18 GMT -5
Did Rose cork his bat? I never heard that. Oh yeah, big article on it some years later. My comment at the time: "Hearing that Pete Rose corked his bat is like finding out that Jeffrey Dahmer had unpaid parking tickets."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2016 22:14:57 GMT -5
The 28 games are more difficult than Rose's first 38 or Joe D's first 36. Joe D had an 1143 OPS after 36 games, while JBJ is c. 1272, in an era of less offense.
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Post by elguapo on May 24, 2016 23:39:57 GMT -5
we've got enough data from after his swing overhaul to say that he's ... GOT A 4 WAR FLOOR!!!! Woo-hoo! OK, kidding about that last part, but I think he's established himself as *at least* a good major league player. And it's possible he's more than that. And, for those who remember, I was a big JBJ skeptic with his old swing. I always liked JBJ because he had the tools, the head, and the heart. You should always bet on a player like that to figure it out -- he probably will and in the worst case if he doesn't you won't regret rooting for a quality individual.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 25, 2016 22:18:00 GMT -5
From Baseball tonight:
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 26, 2016 10:21:54 GMT -5
From Baseball tonight: Was watching MLB tonight with Pedro. He said there is no way to pitch to JBJ at this point. He's hitting everything, slop, hard, in, out, up and down. He has absolutely no holes in his swing. He does appear if he gets a strike, he hits it hard somewhere.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2016 11:15:20 GMT -5
From Baseball tonight: Was watching MLB tonight with Pedro. He said there is no way to pitch to JBJ at this point. He's hitting everything, slop, hard, in, out, up and down. He has absolutely no holes in his swing. He does appear if he gets a strike, he hits it hard somewhere. If he keeps this up to any extent at all, his walk rate should skyrocket.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 26, 2016 11:48:21 GMT -5
Was watching MLB tonight with Pedro. He said there is no way to pitch to JBJ at this point. He's hitting everything, slop, hard, in, out, up and down. He has absolutely no holes in his swing. He does appear if he gets a strike, he hits it hard somewhere. If he keeps this up to any extent at all, his walk rate should skyrocket. Doing this as I type ... He's seen 156 pitches in the zone in the streak. He's swung at exactly 100. He has made contact with 89 of them. He's fouled off 32 and hit 57 into fair territory. 23 grounders, 13 line drives, 14 fly balls, 2 popups, and 5 that BrooksBaseball hasn't classified. He's hitting .577 and slugging 1.123. He's slugging .640 per swing, including the 43 whiffs and fouls. The only place where he hasn't killed it is low and outside, where he's 2/8, 2B. However, if you miss one sector up, he's 5/7 with 11 TB. If you miss a sector into low-middle, he's 4/10 with 10 TB. If you miss a sector down out of the zone, he's 5/12 with a 2B. Only if you miss further outside are you OK, 2/8 with a 2B. Basically, there's only one spot where he can be pitched to right now, and that's just outside the plate above the knees. Edit: In the zone, he's slugging .727 against 11 4-seamers, 1.200 against 10 2-seamers, 1.333 against 12 cutters, 1.250 against 8 sliders, 1.000 against 9 curves, and 1.286 against 7 changes and splitters.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 26, 2016 12:24:25 GMT -5
Knowing Pedro from the day & I know he'd never say it on MLB tonight, he would probably knock JBJ on his rear end a few times to get him uncomfortable to MAYBE slow him up a bit. He looks extremely relaxed at the plate. I haven't seen every game during the streak, has anyone tried to knock him down?
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 26, 2016 12:27:00 GMT -5
That was the big takeaway once he heated up: there was very little of the field he wasn't using. That was what the eyeball test was showing and that's been proved out. Your numbers highlight how he does that, by hitting pitches where they're thrown. I'm at a loss, as others are, to know where this is going. The drop in his K rate has been dramatic, and the walk rate has been steadily rising, as might be expected. The amount of hard contact he's making is in stark contrast to the premature start of his career. Maybe this is (close) to what he really is. Add in the defense and right now he's a rival to Trout, at least for this season, as the CF starter for the AL in the all-star game. Who woulda thunk it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 26, 2016 12:52:40 GMT -5
That was the big takeaway once he heated up: there was very little of the field he wasn't using. That was what the eyeball test was showing and that's been proved out. Your numbers highlight how he does that, by hitting pitches where they're thrown. I'm at a loss, as others are, to know where this is going. The drop in his K rate has been dramatic, and the walk rate has been steadily rising, as might be expected. The amount of hard contact he's making is in stark contrast to the premature start of his career. Maybe this is (close) to what he really is. Add in the defense and right now he's a rival to Trout, at least for this season, as the CF starter for the AL in the all-star game. Who woulda thunk it. Bradley was hot at Pawtucket in 2015 for 51 games from April 25 to July 22 (interrupted by two call-ups) and hit .325 / .405 / .525. That translates to really good CF offense in MLB, but not to this*. Since then he's had: 15 games with a 372 OPS slump split between AAA and MLB 23 games with a 1441 OPS, undoubtedly goosed a bit by pitchers not respecting him 25 games with a 510 OPS at the end of last year 16 games with a 586 OPS at the start of this year 29 games with a 1271 OPS ... so far. The difference between a 930 OPS in AAA and a 1271 in MLB is huge.* It can't be explained except in terms of continued improvement. I have no doubt that we'll see more stretches of 15 to 25 games when he's ice cold. So the two unanswered questions are: -- What will his final ratio of hot to cold look like? How long will his hot stretches be, and how frequent will the slumps be? -- Will he ever have hot stretches where he's more like the hitter from 2015 AAA? Or even with those kinds of numbers, but in MLB? IOW, when he's hot, is he always this hot, or is just this him being particularly locked in? I think the second of those is almost uniquely interesting. We have no idea what a JBJ rocking a mere 850 to 900 OPS over a sustained stretch looks like! Edit: and after discovering the further splits below, I think that such a creature may not quite exist. Add 50 points, maybe. *Edit: however, that .325 / .405 / .525 line breaks down to: 15 games with a 1069 OPS (excluding a bad two games after he was sent down the first time) 16 games with 705 (.217 / .338 / .367) 20 games with 991 If you exclude the 16 games in the middle, then the red-hot AAA JBJ was a .383 / .446 / .632 hitter. It's more credible that that's the guy who has turned into the guy we've seen for the last month. But it's still remarkable. Also, duration of hot streaks: 15 20 23 29 and counting Cold streak duration: 12 (start of AAA season, 753 OPS) 16 15 25 (possibly prolonged by end-of-year fatigue) 16 With the one outlier, a consistent 12 to 16 is very typical for streaky guys. Also, his cold streaks in AAA were in the 700 to 750 range, in MLB they've been 500 to 600, and that certainly looks like the same thing, translated.
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Post by 0ap0 on May 26, 2016 13:45:36 GMT -5
The difference between a 930 OPS in AAA and a 1271 in MLB is huge.* It can't be explained except in terms of continued improvement. Even moreso, it can't be explained except in terms of considerably more improvement than is normal for early-career major league players.
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Post by glassox on May 26, 2016 18:38:35 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2016 18:52:36 GMT -5
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dd
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Post by dd on May 27, 2016 7:32:40 GMT -5
As much as I enjoy the irony, it might be time to change the title of this thread. That ship is half way around the world now!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 27, 2016 12:12:48 GMT -5
That was the big takeaway once he heated up: there was very little of the field he wasn't using. That was what the eyeball test was showing and that's been proved out. Your numbers highlight how he does that, by hitting pitches where they're thrown. I'm at a loss, as others are, to know where this is going. The drop in his K rate has been dramatic, and the walk rate has been steadily rising, as might be expected. The amount of hard contact he's making is in stark contrast to the premature start of his career. Maybe this is (close) to what he really is. Add in the defense and right now he's a rival to Trout, at least for this season, as the CF starter for the AL in the all-star game. Who woulda thunk it. The updated ZiPS and Steamer projections see him as roughly a .270/.340/.440 hitter, which seems reasonable to me. Basically they're saying the BABIP is going to come down and that he's going to retain a good portion of the gains he's made in his strikeout rate but not much of the power. This is consistent with the relative "stickiness" of those stats, the scouting reports on him since forever, and my own judgement (obviously the most important factor here). Correcting the .341 average and .390 BABIP is pretty obvious, I totally believe he can have a strikeout rate near league average going forward, and no freaking way do I buy into the .250-ish ISO we've seen from Good Jackie Bradley.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 27, 2016 12:33:59 GMT -5
That was the big takeaway once he heated up: there was very little of the field he wasn't using. That was what the eyeball test was showing and that's been proved out. Your numbers highlight how he does that, by hitting pitches where they're thrown. I'm at a loss, as others are, to know where this is going. The drop in his K rate has been dramatic, and the walk rate has been steadily rising, as might be expected. The amount of hard contact he's making is in stark contrast to the premature start of his career. Maybe this is (close) to what he really is. Add in the defense and right now he's a rival to Trout, at least for this season, as the CF starter for the AL in the all-star game. Who woulda thunk it. The updated ZiPS and Steamer projections see him as roughly a .270/.340/.440 hitter, which seems reasonable to me. Basically they're saying the BABIP is going to come down and that he's going to retain a good portion of the gains he's made in his strikeout rate but not much of the power. This is consistent with the relative "stickiness" of those stats, the scouting reports on him since forever, and my own judgement (obviously the most important factor here). Correcting the .341 average and .390 BABIP is pretty obvious, I totally believe he can have a strikeout rate near league average going forward, and no freaking way do I buy into the .250-ish ISO we've seen from Good Jackie Bradley. It's a pretty substantial drop from 250 to 170, though. I'd probably put it somewhere in between, with those as the ends of the error bar on the projection. 50% projection is maybe around 200 or so, making his SLG more in the 470-480 range. He'll probably always get more doubles than he would otherwise because of his all-fields approach and Fenway.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 27, 2016 12:49:39 GMT -5
It's true, there's no way he can maintain that batting average on those balls in play. Last night was a good example. He connected on a couple of pitches but it went for naught. No doubt it will be coming down, but if he can keep the K rate at a more reasonable level then yes, I think he'll get himself in the .270 - .280 range for average, but with the power more along the lines of what brian lays out. A few years back, I projected that as the norm once he approached his peak - .825 or so on the OPS and that's still very valuable. If that is where he's headed, I hope he does it slowly. It's a lot of fun watching him rake given what it took for him to get there.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 27, 2016 16:28:55 GMT -5
It's difficult for him to mantain such a high level but at this point I think we can say he'll be a good big league player.
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Post by jmei on Jun 2, 2016 12:35:40 GMT -5
There's some interesting analysis of Bradley's batted ball profile this year here: That squares with my sense that he's spraying hard line drives all over the field. Not sure if that batted ball profile is compatible with sustainable elite home run power, but I'd be happy to take a high BABIP and a ton of doubles instead. The author concludes that Bradley's "expected" line so far this year is .288/.371/.472, which would (obviously) still be pretty terrific.
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Post by michael on Jun 2, 2016 13:17:43 GMT -5
Just a break in the topic. If the Bradleys name a son after Jackie will he be referred to as JBJ Jr?
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 2, 2016 13:26:54 GMT -5
Just a break in the topic. If the Bradleys name a son after Jackie will he be referred to as JBJ Jr? According to Dave O'Brien, yes. JB3 has a great ring to it though.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 2, 2016 14:16:40 GMT -5
Congrats JBJ!
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