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Choose Your Own Adventure: You're Dave Dombrowski!
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Post by cambos174 on Nov 13, 2015 7:21:20 GMT -5
My dream scenario:
Sign Price at 7/210
Trade Panda + Marrero + Rijo to SD for Shields such that the salary is a wash.
Trade Bucholz for prospects to include in a deal for.....wait for it.....Joey Votto and Chapman
I'd think something like 1/3 subsidized Hanley, Margot, Kelly, Owens, Guerra, and the presumably pretty decent prospects you receive for Buch. The Reds get a guy who will probably hit 35 homers for them on a shorter and cheaper deal. They shed over 20 mil in payroll year one and 10 per thereafter. They acquire two very good prospects and two guys with some success in the majors.
Sox get an elite closer and a true middle of the order hitter that will keep the line moving with top notch OBP, so he'll age a little better.
This would require the Sox to add approximately 40 mil in payroll from the current state (Chapman washes with Buch/Kelly, Panda/Shields wash, we shed approx 14 w Hanley, but take on Votto (25), and Price (30)
Sign Tony Sipp
Price Shields Erod Porcello Miley
(Johnson, Wright as depth)
Chapman Koji Taz Sipp Ross Barnes
Betts Pedey Ortiz Votto Bogaerts Holt/Shaw Swihart Castillo JBJ
Totally unrealistic to make all these moves, just day-dreaming and rolling back the clocks before last offseason (no Hanley and Panda).
If no big deals, I'd just get O'Day and trade for subsidized Pap (wouldn't take much at all). Let the rotation shake out again, give Panda a chance to regain some value, same with Hanley. Give the elite prospects we have another year to progress and get closer to the bigs. Position the team for a mid season rotation acquisition. One year closer to Espinoza and Kopech, Benni, Devers, and moncado.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 10:09:44 GMT -5
Can people stop putting AB in trades? He CANNOT be traded until June. Take him off the table and he's not a PBNL. Have we ever seen a guy in his situation be a PBNL
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2015 10:11:25 GMT -5
Can people stop putting AB in trades? He CANNOT be traded until June. Take him off the table and he's not a PBNL. Have we ever seen a guy in his situation be a PBNL You are mistaken-- the policy was changed this year to allow drafted players to be traded beginning the day after the conclusion of the World Series in the season they were drafted: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/all-drafted-players-now-eligible-to-be-traded-after-world-series.htmlADD: even were that not the case, players in that situation have been traded before-- see, e.g., Trea Turner last offseason.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 10:38:04 GMT -5
Thank you for the clarification and this site needs to update the player pages that state he cannot be traded until June.
Carry on including him
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 13, 2015 13:05:05 GMT -5
Trade Brian Johnson, Josh Rutledge, Wade Miley, and Joe Kelly to Atlanta for Julio Teheran and a competitive balance pick Anytime you include a zero trade value guy like Rutledge in a trade proposal it's a pretty good sign you're trying to rationalize a trade that's not actually fair at all.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 13:30:00 GMT -5
Trade Brian Johnson, Josh Rutledge, Wade Miley, and Joe Kelly to Atlanta for Julio Teheran and a competitive balance pick Anytime you include a zero trade value guy like Rutledge in a trade proposal it's a pretty good sign you're trying to rationalize a trade that's not actually fair at all. Haha thank you. Some rational thought finally. Can't just throw bodies at them.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2015 13:40:01 GMT -5
I really want to play here but I can't even begin to pretend to know what kind of return I would get for any prospect package. That and I don't know my endpoint budget. All that said...
- I would buy Greinke.
- If I could find a way to move Hanley without paying more than 30% of his salary I'd buy Heyward if I could get him for 7 or 8 years. Then I'd move whomever is left of Hanley and Panda to 3rd and trade one of Castillo or JBJ - of course I'd like it to be Castillo, but don't think I'd move him if I have to pay more than $10M total of his salary over the life of that contract.
- I'd also consider getting Napoli back on a cheap 1 year deal and platoon him with Shaw (unless I could get a better solution in a trade).
- I'd buy O'Day over Soria. Soria's FIP took a hit last year and I think his decline is going to continue.
- I'd also like to trade for a #2 starter or better who has more than 2 years of control but, like I said above, I'd really have to know who that is what the cost will be beyond, say Margot OR Benintendi and Owens. I don't like the idea of dealing one of Devers, Moncada or Espinosa in that package but if it's the right name I could be talked into adding one of them, or one of Devers/Moncada plus Espinosa if it's one of the best names with a lot of control (i.e. Gray, Thor or...I'm not sure who else - and even then I'd have to think long and hard).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2015 13:55:09 GMT -5
Anytime you include a zero trade value guy like Rutledge in a trade proposal it's a pretty good sign you're trying to rationalize a trade that's not actually fair at all. Haha thank you. Some rational thought finally. Can't just throw bodies at them. Hey, it worked with Nick Punto. Without him there's no way the Dodgers and Sox make a deal.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Nov 13, 2015 14:25:30 GMT -5
Anytime you include a zero trade value guy like Rutledge in a trade proposal it's a pretty good sign you're trying to rationalize a trade that's not actually fair at all. Haha thank you. Some rational thought finally. Can't just throw bodies at them. There are too many posts that seem to assume deciding which players to trade is like deciding which clothes to bring to the thrift shop: "I wouldn't trade X; I think he's going to be be good!" You can't expect to give away things that are not valuable to you and expect to get something valuable in return. (Except a very modest tax deduction, for the thrift shop clothes.) Years ago you could make a trade and hope the other team's GM was too lazy to drive down to Connecticut and see whether that young 3b actually has any power. Today everybody has tons of information, positive and negative. We're going to have to give to get.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Nov 13, 2015 14:28:53 GMT -5
Trade Brian Johnson, Josh Rutledge, Wade Miley, and Joe Kelly to Atlanta for Julio Teheran and a competitive balance pick Anytime you include a zero trade value guy like Rutledge in a trade proposal it's a pretty good sign you're trying to rationalize a trade that's not actually fair at all. Haha you are right though, Rutledge doesn't really bring any value to the Sox, I just included him because the Braves just traded Simmons so they could need a little middle infield depth. It isn't much value, but it's something at a position of need for the Braves, he would have been likely to be outrighted off the Red Sox 40 man anyway. That being said the core of the trade isn't irrational. 3 years of 200 inning Miley, 3 years of Kelly, plus 6 years of Johnson for 4 years of Teheran shouldn't be unreasonable.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 14:43:09 GMT -5
Anytime you include a zero trade value guy like Rutledge in a trade proposal it's a pretty good sign you're trying to rationalize a trade that's not actually fair at all. Haha you are right though, Rutledge doesn't really bring any value to the Sox, I just included him because the Braves just traded Simmons so they could need a little middle infield depth. It isn't much value, but it's something at a position of need for the Braves, he would have been likely to be outrighted off the Red Sox 40 man anyway. That being said the core of the trade isn't irrational. 3 years of 200 inning Miley, 3 years of Kelly, plus 6 years of Johnson for 4 years of Teheran shouldn't be unreasonable. Rebuilding team with a lot of talent in A and AA. Wouldn't think Miley and Kelly are that attractive over prospects. Not to mention you've eradicated a huge amount of pitching depth by trading 3 starters for 1.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Nov 13, 2015 15:06:07 GMT -5
Haha you are right though, Rutledge doesn't really bring any value to the Sox, I just included him because the Braves just traded Simmons so they could need a little middle infield depth. It isn't much value, but it's something at a position of need for the Braves, he would have been likely to be outrighted off the Red Sox 40 man anyway. That being said the core of the trade isn't irrational. 3 years of 200 inning Miley, 3 years of Kelly, plus 6 years of Johnson for 4 years of Teheran shouldn't be unreasonable. Rebuilding team with a lot of talent in A and AA. Wouldn't think Miley and Kelly are that attractive over prospects. Not to mention you've eradicated a huge amount of pitching depth by trading 3 starters for 1. The Braves are already loaded with pitching prospects in the low minors. They have Touki, Allard, Fried, Sims, Jenkins, Soroka, and now Ellis and Newcomb. However, their rotation is currently projected to be 2 vets, a top rookie prospect, and 2 okay rookie prospects. That's the equivalent of us going into the season with a rotation of Buchholz, Porcello, E-Rod, Owens, and Johnson, with our emergency options career AAA guys. I get that the Braves aren't supposed to win games, but they need guys that are ready to pitch in the majors too. It is true that pitching depth is eradicated by trading Kelly and Miley, but I don't really think Kelly is a starter on a playoff team anyway. Having Henry Owens and Steven Wright as 6th and 7th options is probably on par with most team's emergency starter depth. In my opinion, the ace market this year is overrated outside of Price, who is an unlikely option. Waiting for Strasburg in 2017 or Arrieta/Ross in 2018 are better choices than overpaying for Zimmermann or Cueto.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 13, 2015 17:25:23 GMT -5
My dream scenario: Sign Price at 7/210 Trade Panda + Marrero + Rijo to SD for Shields such that the salary is a wash. Trade Bucholz for prospects to include in a deal for.....wait for it.....Joey Votto and Chapman I'd think something like 1/3 subsidized Hanley, Margot, Kelly, Owens, Guerra, and the presumably pretty decent prospects you receive for Buch. The Reds get a guy who will probably hit 35 homers for them on a shorter and cheaper deal. They shed over 20 mil in payroll year one and 10 per thereafter. They acquire two very good prospects and two guys with some success in the majors. Sox get an elite closer and a true middle of the order hitter that will keep the line moving with top notch OBP, so he'll age a little better. This would require the Sox to add approximately 40 mil in payroll from the current state (Chapman washes with Buch/Kelly, Panda/Shields wash, we shed approx 14 w Hanley, but take on Votto (25), and Price (30) Sign Tony Sipp Price Shields Erod Porcello Miley (Johnson, Wright as depth) Chapman Koji Taz Sipp Ross Barnes Betts Pedey Ortiz Votto Bogaerts Holt/Shaw Swihart Castillo JBJ Totally unrealistic to make all these moves, just day-dreaming and rolling back the clocks before last offseason (no Hanley and Panda). If no big deals, I'd just get O'Day and trade for subsidized Pap (wouldn't take much at all). Let the rotation shake out again, give Panda a chance to regain some value, same with Hanley. Give the elite prospects we have another year to progress and get closer to the bigs. Position the team for a mid season rotation acquisition. One year closer to Espinoza and Kopech, Benni, Devers, and moncado. YES I've been lobbying for Votto for a while. This makes us rediculous dangerous. Could just keep panda at 3B. Then include Castillo in a deal for shields to help balance the money. And sign a 4A LF to platoon with Holt
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 13, 2015 18:28:41 GMT -5
JBJ for Walker Swihart, Walker, and Guerra for Sale Sign O'Day @ 3/22.5 Miley to SL for prospects SL prospects for Giles Sign Gordon @ 5/95, with PA option for 6th year
Sale, , Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly Giles, Uehara, O'Day, Tazawa, Ross, Layne and Wright Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ramirez, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Gordon, Castillo, Hanigan, with Holt, Shaw, Marrero and Leon, until Vazquez is ready as starter.
The above would add only 24.5 AAV
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 14, 2015 1:23:02 GMT -5
JBJ for Walker Swihart, Walker, and Guerra for Sale Sign O'Day @ 3/22.5 Miley to SL for prospects SL prospects for Giles Sign Gordon @ 5/95, with PA option for 6th year Sale, , Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly Giles, Uehara, O'Day, Tazawa, Ross, Layne and Wright Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ramirez, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Gordon, Castillo, Hanigan, with Holt, Shaw, Marrero and Leon, until Vazquez is ready as starter. The above would add only 24.5 AAV I ammend my prediction to: Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra, Asuaje and Allen not sure where I thought that one up! Sign Cueto @ 5/120 Move Kelly to the pen Extend Betts and Bogaerts after the season starts Cueto, Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley Kimbrel, Uehara, Kelly, Ross, Tazawa, Layne and Wright Same offense, with Hanigan, Holt, Shaw and Marrero as bench. Vazquez starts in AAA and plays his way onto the team. Have to admit, it's a pretty solid team DD is planning. They'd be 9 deep starting pitching depth with Kelly and Wright on the Boston squad, and Owens / Johnson in AAA. The bullpen would feature two closers, and 7 highly capable arms. AAA would have nice talent with Ramirez, Barnes, Workman, Hembree, Varvaro, and possibly Escobar all trying to force their way into future plans. The depth, and roster flexibility with this lineup shows a well rounded squad, that I'll enjoy watching a great deal. Power may be a tad short, but I like everything else.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2015 8:12:13 GMT -5
Sign Greinke to 5y 165m contract that includes a 20-25m Team option and a 10m buyout for year 6. (+33m AAV) Trade Owens and Marrero Margot, Guerra, Allen and Asuaje for Kimbrel (+11.5m AAV for time with Sox, I believe)
Sign Tony Sipp to 2y 10m contract (+5m AAV) Sign Rajai Davis 2/11m (+5.5m AAV) Trade Buccholz in what amounts to a salary dump, but get best minor league talent possible (-11.7m AAV) Starters: C Swithart 1b Hanley 2b Pedroia SS Xander 3b Panda LF Castillo CF Betts RF Bradley DH Ortiz Bench: C Hanigan IF/Of Holt IF/OF Shaw OF Davis The starting outfield offers great flexibility for back up centerfielders and Holt and Shaw can cover the corners and infield so it's questionable if you need Davis. He's a RHH though and I think a good fit. Rotation: Greinke Rodriguez Porcello Kelly Milley Bullpen: Cl Kimbrell 8th Koji 7-R Taz 7-L Sipp LH Ross last 2 guys: Wright/Vavaro/Lane/Barnes/etc 1 for 1 (sorta)... Lets get Greinke now
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sdl
Rookie
Who the hell is Stan Papi?
Posts: 135
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Post by sdl on Nov 14, 2015 11:42:23 GMT -5
Can people stop putting AB in trades? He CANNOT be traded until June. Take him off the table and he's not a PBNL. Have we ever seen a guy in his situation be a PBNL You are mistaken-- the policy was changed this year to allow drafted players to be traded beginning the day after the conclusion of the World Series in the season they were drafted: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/all-drafted-players-now-eligible-to-be-traded-after-world-series.htmlADD: even were that not the case, players in that situation have been traded before-- see, e.g., Trea Turner last offseason. Brings back memories of the old First Year Draft rule.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 14:44:05 GMT -5
Sign Price or Grienke. Sign Sipp. Sign Bastardo. Sign Gordon.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 14, 2015 14:47:10 GMT -5
Sign Price or Grienke. Sign Sipp. Sign Bastardo. Sign Gordon. You'll pay?
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Post by seanleary001 on Nov 14, 2015 15:24:24 GMT -5
Betts 8 Pedroia 4 Freeman 3 Ortiz DH Bogaerts 6 Gardner 7 Castillo 9 Swihart 2 Holt 5
Shaw Hannigan Rutledge De Aza
Price Teheran Buchholz Miley Porcello
Kimbrel Uehara Tazawa Sipp Madson Ross Jr Layne
Trade Moncada, Travis, Rodriguez, Kopech, Barnes and Dubon for Freeman and Teheran. (I know this isn't happening lol)
Trade Jackie Bradley Jr for Brett Gardner.
Sign David Price.
Sign Alejandro De Aza.
Sign Tony Sipp.
Sign Ryan Madson.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 16:59:42 GMT -5
Sign Price or Grienke. Sign Sipp. Sign Bastardo. Sign Gordon. You'll pay? Absolutely
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 14, 2015 17:05:44 GMT -5
Trade moncada and devers for CC Sabathia, benentendi for mark melancon, sit back and watch the world burn
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 14, 2015 19:31:03 GMT -5
"Miley to SL for prospects SL prospects for Giles"
lol
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2015 22:47:22 GMT -5
I know it's not the ideal scenario but I would eat enough of Panda's contract to trade for a cost controlled young power lefty bullpen piece then plan on going into the season with some combination of Holt, Shaw and Marrero at 3B.
I'd also sign one of the "aces", preferably Price (Grenke or Cueto), move Kelly to the pen and sign a fourth outfielder like Young. I wouldn't move any more of our significant prospects.
Sunk cost and addition by subtraction buzz-expressions applied.
ADD: Assuming all catchers are healthy, I'd also plan on Vazquez being in Pawtucket until the trade deadline which gives us time to evaluate the overall catching situation.
Our typical bench would then be: Hanigan 4th outfielder two of Holt, Shaw, Marrero
Holt plays everywhere, Marrero all infield and Shaw 1B/3B/LF. Shaw would also be Hanley insurance.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 15, 2015 16:39:34 GMT -5
Good thread, I always think these are interesting and fun to discuss. Also, thank you for doing the "research" for us regarding the links and similar. The first thing I'd do is drastically over-pay in terms of prospects for an elite relief pitcher that is already paid at the top of the market. Since the Kimbrel deal has already been completed, I'll take into account that from Speier's projections at $32M - $10.5M (Kimbrel) = $21.5M left.
From there I would: Sign FA Johnny Cueto to 5yr/$24Mper deal. Sign FA Jordan Zimmermann to 5yr/$22Mper deal.
Trade P Clay Buchholz for best prospect possible (probably top 100ish) and $10M salary relief. Trade 3b Pablo Sandoval covering up to 50% of his contract to whomever will take him, getting $10M per season. Trade P Wade Miley for best prospect possible, eating no money, getting $6M per year relief.
Go into the season with: Cueto, Zimmermann, Porcello, Rodriguez and "Owens" (whomever wins out from Kelly, Owens, Wright, Johnson battle for the spot). The others are depth in Pawtucket.
Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, Ross, Layne, "Hembree".
Betts - cf; Pedroia - 2b; Bogaerts - ss; Ortiz - dh; Ramirez - 3b; Shaw - 1b; Swiart - c; Castillo - rf; Bradley Jr - lf. I think Ramirez and Shaw could be swapped, as well. In my mind, it's really a Shaw / Holt platoon as Holt has a reverse split over the course of his career.
Hanigan; Holt; Rutledge; "Brentz and Marrero."
Personally, I think that signing two FA starters is the right move at this time (from the calculus of I'd rather spend the money to get an ace than spend something like Bradley Jr, Devers, Espinoza and Kopech or whatever). I would love it if we signed David Price, but I really think that going up to $31M per year is too much, so that moves him (and Grienke) off the list.
While I admit Cueto didn't have a ton of success coming over to the AL, I think that was as much changing teams as anything (it took a good 20 starts or more for Beckett, Lackey and Porcello to translate). Overall in his career he had almost a full season (28 stats) against the AL in inter-league and put up a 2.68ERA with a 1.101WHIP, and we might be able to get him at a decent "buy low" price based on his struggles in KC. He also has no compensation attached. If we can lock him up on 5yrs, and his medicals check out, I'm totally on board.
After brining in Cueto next on my list would be Jordan Zimmermann. At this point he has less than 1100ip on his arm (by comparison, Lester had about 1600ip on his last year at this time). So while he will be 30 next season, he's only going to have about 5 full seasons of innings on his arm, making him more in the "28" age range by number of innings thrown. He had (by his standards) a rough season last year, and that could keep the price down a little bit more. He also has nearly a full season (24) of starts against the American League with a very good 3.05ERA and a 1.210WHIP. I think he's a bit underrated by the league right now as many are focusing on his last season as opposed to his entire track record. The biggest downside to Zimmerman (in my opinion) is that he would cost the #12 pick. But I'd rather give up the pick than another three prospects.
From my scenario above, I think the "value" of the number 12 pick is more than made up for in the prospect acquired for Buchholz and the package from moving Miley. All of these moves combined leave the Sox somewhere around $2M left under the cap. If we could use that to get a good 4th OF and move one of the bench names down to Pawtucket, I'd be on board with that as well. This is my plan, feel free to have at it.
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