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Red Sox acquire Craig Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra +
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jul 25, 2016 11:31:22 GMT -5
The guy is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Absolutely could have been a centerpiece to get a pitcher. Maybe this team still has Espinoza. But we won't know because our overzealous GM blew his load in the offseason. I wish this team was getting the haul the MFY are getting back for Chapman. Who would have came dirt cheap after the whole domestic violence thing and is better than Kimbrel anyways. Um, yeah. Deservedly so. No one I want on the Sox. Much different and worse than, say, cutting up unis, getting popped for pot or getting caught with PEDs, IMHO. Sure. But I would have rather the team continued with giving Chapman a 2nd chance rather than give up the haul they did for an inferior pitcher like Kimbrel. He made a mistake he did his "time" and took his punishment. This isn't Greg Hardy throwing his girl on a couch full of guns. I'd rather give Chapman a 2nd chance than rebuild an entire farm system with one trade.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2016 11:36:26 GMT -5
Um, yeah. Deservedly so. No one I want on the Sox. Much different and worse than, say, cutting up unis, getting popped for pot or getting caught with PEDs, IMHO. Sure. But I would have rather the team continued with giving Chapman a 2nd chance rather than give up the haul they did for an inferior pitcher like Kimbrel. He made a mistake he did his "time" and took his punishment. This isn't Greg Hardy throwing his girl on a couch full of guns. I'd rather give Chapman a 2nd chance than rebuild an entire farm system with one trade. At the time the trade was made, no one knew the extent of what happened. And there was multiple shots fired in his garage so yeah it does compare to Hardy. It's not giving him a second chance. It was trading for him without knowing what he did.
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Post by Coreno on Jul 25, 2016 11:37:02 GMT -5
Also, in this universe where the Sox traded a bag of balls for the woman beater, do they also suck so much that they have to trade him for that same great haul? Doesn't really sound like the better reality to me.
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Post by malynn19 on Jul 25, 2016 12:08:42 GMT -5
Sure. But I would have rather the team continued with giving Chapman a 2nd chance rather than give up the haul they did for an inferior pitcher like Kimbrel. He made a mistake he did his "time" and took his punishment. This isn't Greg Hardy throwing his girl on a couch full of guns. I'd rather give Chapman a 2nd chance than rebuild an entire farm system with one trade. At the time the trade was made, no one knew the extent of what happened. And there was multiple shots fired in his garage so yeah it does compare to Hardy. It's not giving him a second chance. It was trading for him without knowing what he did. I am pretty sure the Yankees knew thanks to old Joe Torre. Something we have no control of.
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Post by jamarco on Jul 25, 2016 12:19:04 GMT -5
So Theo just gave up a comparable Kimbrel package for 2 months of Chapman.
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Post by bigpupp on Jul 25, 2016 12:21:40 GMT -5
I'm all for second chances, but I'm very glad I root for a team that backed away from trading for a domestic abuser when they found out about it.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 25, 2016 13:00:03 GMT -5
That would be a better argument if you didn't assert that Red Sox position player prospects are 67% more valuable than the league-average. Yes, they've had a lot of success in terms of developing position player prospects in the last 15 years. No, you shouldn't assume that success is predictive, especially because when you're making arguments like the above, you should be conservative in your estimates when doing so still illustrates the large gap in value. I was well aware that the trade looks disastrous either way, which is why I gave both figures as a range. I'm agnostic as to how much of our 80% excess value performance is predictive, but I think some portion of it is (say, at least 25%) because of our emphasis on makeup. At 60%, it's pegging Margot as a 2.2 WAR player (average of his 6 control years, including the chance that he busts) instead of 1.4. Right now, I'll take the boosted figure over the raw one. Actually, you could look at this as the team used its superior information about the players' makeup to trade the players that the team predicted had a higher likelihood to bust. Margot and Guerra so far look like they were traded at the top of their prospect rating, and their likelihood of bust has increased since the trade. Margot has a projected .103 ISO, 75 wRC+ and 0 WAR. Guerra has been lost at the plate. Allen has been on the DL with a tender elbow. Maybe that was something the Sox predicted at the time of the trade. It's the team's evaluation of the likelihood of bust that should determine who you should trade and when, and this could be very different from the public evaluator's expectation of career WAR. Kimbrel's value won't be estimated until we find out who the real Kimbrel is, the guy with the .50 WHIP in most of his appearances? or the guy with the 3.00+ WHIP when he hasn't pitched in three days or more?
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 25, 2016 13:06:12 GMT -5
So Theo just gave up a comparable Kimbrel package for 2 months of Chapman. Yes, now we have another comparable to establish the market for Kimbrel, along with the trade for Giles. In both, the relative value of elite closers is much higher than the public evaluators had expected. So glad DDo is on our team.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jul 25, 2016 13:28:43 GMT -5
I'm all for second chances, but I'm very glad I root for a team that backed away from trading for a domestic abuser when they found out about it. If the guy has talent and has no other indiscretions then why wouldn't you take a chance on the cheap. This is what really good teams do. Now because the Yankees made a brilliant move and got Chapman for nothing they now will have a better system than the Red Sox once Moncada and AB graduate. Maybe after only one does.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2016 13:31:30 GMT -5
I'm all for second chances, but I'm very glad I root for a team that backed away from trading for a domestic abuser when they found out about it. If the guy has talent and has no other indiscretions then why wouldn't you take a chance on the cheap. This is what really good teams do. Now because the Yankees made a brilliant move and got Chapman for nothing they now will have a better system than the Red Sox once Moncada and AB graduate. Maybe after only one does. Because he's the lowest form of scum on the planet, one who beats and threatens women. Some things are more important than sports and entertainment.
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Post by bigpupp on Jul 25, 2016 13:44:47 GMT -5
If the guy has talent and has no other indiscretions then why wouldn't you take a chance on the cheap. This is what really good teams do. Now because the Yankees made a brilliant move and got Chapman for nothing they now will have a better system than the Red Sox once Moncada and AB graduate. Maybe after only one does. Because he's the lowest form of scum on the planet, one who beats and threatens women. Some things are more important than sports and entertainment.Bingo.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jul 25, 2016 13:48:34 GMT -5
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Post by Coreno on Jul 25, 2016 13:54:27 GMT -5
Agreed. If I'm a Cubs fan I'm outraged not only by the cost of the rental, but because I don't want this guy anywhere near my team. If only Sale was on the other side of Chicago to cut up this guy's uniform.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 25, 2016 13:59:06 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe 5m5 minutes ago Kimbrel done after 20 or so pitches. Fist bumps all around. Everybody seems pleased. We’ll have more later.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 25, 2016 14:04:25 GMT -5
“@peteabe: Kimbrel supposed to throw off the mound again Wed. Could face hitters Friday and maybe be activated in Seattle come Monday. Very plausible”
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2016 14:04:47 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe 5m5 minutes ago Kimbrel done after 20 or so pitches. Fist bumps all around. Everybody seems pleased. We’ll have more later. We can only hope that a quick return may prevent something stupid.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 25, 2016 14:12:06 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe 5m5 minutes ago Kimbrel done after 20 or so pitches. Fist bumps all around. Everybody seems pleased. We’ll have more later. For some reason, when I read the first part of your sentence, I was not at all expecting the second half of the post.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 25, 2016 15:50:39 GMT -5
I'm all for second chances, but I'm very glad I root for a team that backed away from trading for a domestic abuser when they found out about it. The Chapman sign by the MFY reminded me (to an extent) of when Bonds was a FA in 2008. He had just hit 28 HR in SF. It was almost a gentleman's agreement by the owners to shun him. I'm surprised the Yankees didn't sign him & say to hell with everyone else, we just want to win.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2016 15:56:59 GMT -5
I'm all for second chances, but I'm very glad I root for a team that backed away from trading for a domestic abuser when they found out about it. The Chapman sign by the MFY reminded me (to an extent) of when Bonds was a FA in 2008. He had just hit 28 HR in SF. It was almost a gentleman's agreement by the owners to shun him. I'm surprised the Yankees didn't sign him & say to hell with everyone else, we just want to win. The difference is that Chapman was under contract and was going to get paid minus the suspension. And also, Bonds wasn't caught abusing women.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2016 17:28:43 GMT -5
Um, yeah. Deservedly so. No one I want on the Sox. Much different and worse than, say, cutting up unis, getting popped for pot or getting caught with PEDs, IMHO. Sure. But I would have rather the team continued with giving Chapman a 2nd chance rather than give up the haul they did for an inferior pitcher like Kimbrel. He made a mistake he did his "time" and took his punishment. This isn't Greg Hardy throwing his girl on a couch full of guns. I'd rather give Chapman a 2nd chance than rebuild an entire farm system with one trade. Kinda it sounds like it was almost exactly like that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 25, 2016 17:53:55 GMT -5
I mentioned this early on, when it happened. I really don't care if Chapman beats the Sox in the last game of the World Series. There are other principals than winning games. The team doesn't need a loaded gun, and I'm not talking about the weapon he was brandishing either. Screwing around with them is inherently stupid and mindless. Anyone who's had any formal weapons training knows that. If he goes off to Chicago and they push on through to a championship, so be it. I really don't care.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 25, 2016 17:54:50 GMT -5
Never thought I'd defend Bonds. He cheated the game, Chapman did much worse. Cubs can have him. He probably helps them win a ring. Life is tough.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 26, 2016 7:15:35 GMT -5
Margot and Guerra so far look like they were traded at the top of their prospect rating, and their likelihood of bust has increased since the trade. You continue to repeat this like a broken record, and it continues to not be true.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 26, 2016 12:10:05 GMT -5
The Chapman sign by the MFY reminded me (to an extent) of when Bonds was a FA in 2008. He had just hit 28 HR in SF. It was almost a gentleman's agreement by the owners to shun him. I'm surprised the Yankees didn't sign him & say to hell with everyone else, we just want to win. The difference is that Chapman was under contract and was going to get paid minus the suspension. And also, Bonds wasn't caught abusing women. If Chapman was a free agent, the Yankees would have still signed him for peanuts. My point was that every team could have gotten him for pennies on the dollar.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 26, 2016 13:03:54 GMT -5
The difference is that Chapman was under contract and was going to get paid minus the suspension. And also, Bonds wasn't caught abusing women. If Chapman was a free agent, the Yankees would have still signed him for peanuts. My point was that every team could have gotten him for pennies on the dollar. Yes. And I applaud the six for not trading for him after finding out what happened. I am friends with a few cubs fans who won't root for him.
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