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Red Sox acquire Craig Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra +
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2016 10:28:34 GMT -5
It would be interesting to look at his NL statistics and find out if there was a much higher percentage of pitches out of the strike zone being swung on and missed. BIS has his O-Swing% at 31.4% for 2016, 31.0% for his career. Pitch f/x has it at 30.8% in 2016, 31.5% for his career.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2016 10:53:47 GMT -5
It would be interesting to look at his NL statistics and find out if there was a much higher percentage of pitches out of the strike zone being swung on and missed. BIS has his O-Swing% at 31.4% for 2016, 31.0% for his career. Pitch f/x has it at 30.8% in 2016, 31.5% for his career. His Zone% has declined steeply, as has his FB effectiveness. Curve effectiveness and % thrown seem unchanged. It's FB command. He loses it and can't find it. I could compile, for every one of his appearances, his Zone%, Str%, FB% (it's great that he has just two pitches), FB effectiveness, CB effectiveness (lots of SSS noise in those, but they should correlate over a big sample), and the various other plate discipline metrics. And of course the various results metrics. I don't have that much on my plate for today ... I gotta think about this. I suspect that I'll just come with a much more detailed version of the end of my first paragraph.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2016 11:10:37 GMT -5
So, how short a leash do you have on Kimbrel as post-season closer?
The thing is, this is a pretty terrific bullpen:
Uehara closer Kelly 8th Ziegler / Pomeranz 7th Tazawa / Ross 6th Barnes long / mopup
Adding the real Kimbrel to the top makes it even better; you can use Kelly as a Ziegler alternative in the 7th, as an early/mid-inning relief ace, or as a guy who can pitch 2 or 3 innings starting in the 9th or 10th of a tie game.
Adding a struggling Kimbrel to the top makes it worse. Maybe much worse.
Obviously you shouldn't let him try to close unless you believe you have fixed his mechanics, and he's throwing strikes in the bullpen.
Personally, I'd warm up him and Kelly simultaneously for his first closing opportunity, and if he walks the leadoff hitter, he's done for that series except as mopup. Ditto if he puts two guys on via walks or hard contact. He's certainly not going to wilt from that personal pressure and it might even help him. If he continues to throw well in the pen, maybe he gets another chance in a game where you exhaust the setup guys and need Koji in the 8th, and have a 2-run or 3-run lead.
I do think that getting him back as closer is very desirable, but you have to try to make that happen without losing a playoff game in the process. It's going to be tricky. The best situation would be to have a 3 or 4-run lead in the first game with him knowing that the leash is inches long. We may not be that lucky, though.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 3, 2016 12:36:12 GMT -5
So, how short a leash do you have on Kimbrel as post-season closer? The thing is, this is a pretty terrific bullpen: Uehara closer Kelly 8th Ziegler / Pomeranz 7th Tazawa / Ross 6th Barnes long / mopup Adding the real Kimbrel to the top makes it even better; you can use Kelly as a Ziegler alternative in the 7th, as an early/mid-inning relief ace, or as a guy who can pitch 2 or 3 innings starting in the 9th or 10th of a tie game. Adding a struggling Kimbrel to the top makes it worse. Maybe much worse. Obviously you shouldn't let him try to close unless you believe you have fixed his mechanics, and he's throwing strikes in the bullpen. Personally, I'd warm up him and Kelly simultaneously for his first closing opportunity, and if he walks the leadoff hitter, he's done for that series except as mop. Ditto if he puts two guys on via walks or hard contact. He's certainly not going to wilt from that personal pressure and it might even help him. If he continues to throw well in the pen, maybe he gets another chance in a game where you exhaust the setup guys and need Koji in the 8th, and have a 2-run or 3-run lead. I do think that getting him back as closer is very desirable, but you have to try to make that happen without losing a playoff game in the process. It's going to be tricky. The best situation would be to have a 3 or 4-run lead in the first game with him knowing that the leash is inches long. We may not be that lucky, though. Endorse
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 3, 2016 13:21:23 GMT -5
The good news is that Kimbrel still has elite strikeout ability. Sixth best K% among qualified relievers. The bad news is nearly everything else. ...and the really bad news is that more and more hitters have decided to wait him out. Anyone who watches video can figure out that MO. That is how these teams got to the playoffs, by being properly prepared. I'd agree that the rope will have to be really short. This is a tough call for Farrell, and for Kimbrel. The former has to be ready to yank the cord, the latter has to be big enough to understand why. Maybe it all comes back in the playoffs, but if it doesn't the team can't be riding off into the sunset on a trail of blown saves.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 29, 2016 18:00:47 GMT -5
BIS has his O-Swing% at 31.4% for 2016, 31.0% for his career. Pitch f/x has it at 30.8% in 2016, 31.5% for his career. His Zone% has declined steeply, as has his FB effectiveness. Curve effectiveness and % thrown seem unchanged. It's FB command. He loses it and can't find it. I could compile, for every one of his appearances, his Zone%, Str%, FB% (it's great that he has just two pitches), FB effectiveness, CB effectiveness (lots of SSS noise in those, but they should correlate over a big sample), and the various other plate discipline metrics. And of course the various results metrics. I don't have that much on my plate for today ... I gotta think about this. I suspect that I'll just come with a much more detailed version of the end of my first paragraph. Have to wonder if that's the simple answer to the combo of his skyrocketing walk rate, atrocious GB rate, and the accompanying tanking of his strand rate (despite an unchanged BABIP). Missing spots all over.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 30, 2016 1:19:25 GMT -5
If Kimbrel could ever develop a change up, he could keep hitters guessing a little more and probably become the best closer in the league all over again.
This is kind of the problem with Kimbrel. He's a two trick pony who can't find (or locate) his best trick (his fastball).
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Post by rjp313jr on May 8, 2017 11:29:26 GMT -5
It's kind of funny that Kimbrel's best outing may have been an 11 run victory. Yesterday was so important as it showed he can come in during the middle of an inning with runners on and shut it down. That was big time.
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Post by thursty on May 8, 2017 12:18:22 GMT -5
Kimbrel's career BB% is 10%, and has been trending in the wrong direction (an unacceptable 13.6% last year).
It's at 4% this year; I'm very skeptical that this is real
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2017 12:53:47 GMT -5
Kimbrel's career BB% is 10%, and has been trending in the wrong direction (an unacceptable 13.6% last year). It's at 4% this year; I'm very skeptical that this is real His full seasons in the majors: 2011: 10.5% 2012: 6.1% 2013: 7.8% 2014: 10.7% 2015: 9.2% 2016: 13.6% 2017: 4.0% So yeah, it's gonna come up probably, but if he improved in 2012 and 2015 from the prior year it's not like he can't finish below what he did last year in a new league. His K-rate is likely to come down from 52% too, but that goes without saying. I could see the walk rate settling in at 9% or so, perhaps?
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Post by stevedillard on May 8, 2017 13:27:46 GMT -5
sold high on Guerra, didn't we? 2015 19Greenville SALL A BOS 116 434 121 23 3 15 68 30 112 .279 .329 .449 .778 2016 20Lake Elsinore CALL A+ SDP 105 391 79 19 1 9 41 34 141 .202 .264 .325 .589 2017 21Lake Elsinore CALL A+ SDP 28 106 17 7 0 1 6 11 39 .160 .244 .255 .498
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Post by thursty on May 8, 2017 13:38:46 GMT -5
Steamer and Zips both have Kimbrel ROY at well over 10%, that seems right to me
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 8, 2017 13:42:18 GMT -5
sold high on Guerra, didn't we? 2015 19Greenville SALL A BOS 116 434 121 23 3 15 68 30 112 .279 .329 .449 .778 2016 20Lake Elsinore CALL A+ SDP 105 391 79 19 1 9 41 34 141 .202 .264 .325 .589 2017 21Lake Elsinore CALL A+ SDP 28 106 17 7 0 1 6 11 39 .160 .244 .255 .498 If he can't hit in the California League it's going to be a problem hitting anywhere else, and this is second try. It's early, but it doesn't look good for the kid. Add: The player who looks to be getting it together is Logan Allen. I expect he'll start moving quickly through the SD system since all the peripherals are so good. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if he were to reach the majors before Kopech gets a sniff, and he's only 20 years old.
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Post by thursty on May 8, 2017 13:47:12 GMT -5
Guerra's only 21 and his calling card is as a ++ defender. But sure, 30%+ K rates aren't going to cut it, even if he's Andrelton Simmons
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Post by James Dunne on May 8, 2017 13:53:12 GMT -5
sold high on Guerra, didn't we? Getting rid of someone when his value peaked isn't the same as selling high.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2017 14:14:12 GMT -5
sold high on Guerra, didn't we? Getting rid of someone when his value peaked isn't the same as selling high. But there were signs that his hitting in Greenville was a mirage, as we all thought at the time, so yeah, they could also have sold high on him.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 8, 2017 17:29:48 GMT -5
Kimbrel is healthy finally. We have every reason to believe his issues last year were as a result of the thumb and knee injury. I know people think that last year was bad but if last year is his bad year he's a pretty damn good pitcher.
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Post by telson13 on May 8, 2017 19:03:27 GMT -5
sold high on Guerra, didn't we? Getting rid of someone when his value peaked isn't the same as selling high. Not sure I get the distinction. Are you basing it on "real" versus "illusory" value, or something to that extent?
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Post by James Dunne on May 8, 2017 20:19:11 GMT -5
Getting rid of someone when his value peaked isn't the same as selling high. Not sure I get the distinction. Are you basing it on "real" versus "illusory" value, or something to that extent? Nah, it was just my snarky way of saying they didn't really sell high on him because they didn't get enough for a combo of him and Margot based on what they were worth at the time. That trade is filled with little straw-the-broke-the-camels back type of things. Like, Margot-for-Kimbrel straight up probably would've made sense. Margot and Guerra? Ehhh, I probably could've talked myself into it. But after you put in two top 50 guys, did they really need two legit secondary pieces like the two they got? I guess you don't call off a deal for Kimbrel because you're stuck over a player like Asuaje or Allen, but their inclusion made the trade very uneven on the balance. The Asuaje bit bugs me in particular, because you can't think the Padres turn down getting two studs for Kimbrel because they absolutely need to steal him in it as well. And Asuaje would be a really useful depth piece right now.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 8, 2017 20:51:59 GMT -5
Logan Allen is the one I liked and just infuriates me from day one because he didn't have to be included. IIRC he wasn't THAT well thought of back then that he'd be a deal breaker.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 9, 2017 0:14:24 GMT -5
Watched a little of the Rangers - Padres game. Margot already looks like one of the best players on that team. I realize that's not saying much, but his game is very solid. Two more hits so he's up to 37 to lead all rookies. The contact rate is acceptable and he's even flashed a little power. He doesn't walk much, and he does have to rein in his steal attempts till he learns the pitchers (4 SB / 4 CS), but he's a very good defender. Not bad for a 22 year old.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 9, 2017 7:03:51 GMT -5
Maybe they could have kept one of Allen or Asuaje but maybe not. Does anyone see what the cost of relievers has been and for much less control?
By the way I know everyone likes to say relievers are easy to find and you can get guy's for a fraction of the price who can give 85% - 90% of the production and their WAR values are low, but where do you think this team would be without Kimbrel right now? Right now WAR says he's been worth less than a win.... to me that just proves WAR is a joke for relievers. With the way this bullpen had been injured and has performed outside of him, I bet the spiral effect of him not being there this season would be a sub .500 team right now.
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Post by telson13 on May 9, 2017 15:52:05 GMT -5
Not sure I get the distinction. Are you basing it on "real" versus "illusory" value, or something to that extent? Nah, it was just my snarky way of saying they didn't really sell high on him because they didn't get enough for a combo of him and Margot based on what they were worth at the time. That trade is filled with little straw-the-broke-the-camels back type of things. Like, Margot-for-Kimbrel straight up probably would've made sense. Margot and Guerra? Ehhh, I probably could've talked myself into it. But after you put in two top 50 guys, did they really need two legit secondary pieces like the two they got? I guess you don't call off a deal for Kimbrel because you're stuck over a player like Asuaje or Allen, but their inclusion made the trade very uneven on the balance. The Asuaje bit bugs me in particular, because you can't think the Padres turn down getting two studs for Kimbrel because they absolutely need to steal him in it as well. And Asuaje would be a really useful depth piece right now. Ah, understood and wholeheartedly agreed. Allen is looking like a mistake inclusion as well, though he might have been considered so at the time seeing as how he was a 3rd round talent. He's killing it in low A right now.
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Post by telson13 on May 9, 2017 15:55:20 GMT -5
Watched a little of the Rangers - Padres game. Margot already looks like one of the best players on that team. I realize that's not saying much, but his game is very solid. Two more hits so he's up to 37 to lead all rookies. The contact rate is acceptable and he's even flashed a little power. He doesn't walk much, and he does have to rein in his steal attempts till he learns the pitchers (4 SB / 4 CS), but he's a very good defender. Not bad for a 22 year old. Terrific defender, and if he puts up a 100 WRC+ at 22 in CF, with his defense that's a fantastic player. Basically, 2016 JBJ lite only five years younger. Gotta figure that those offensive numbers will improve.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 9, 2017 16:05:36 GMT -5
I like the swing a lot. He's just a kid with a lot of upside, and he's fun to watch. That's why I streamed it for a few innings.
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