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What's Your Plan to Finish the Bullpen Rebuild?
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2015 14:41:18 GMT -5
Read before answering!
With the current roster and plan, you have a staff of:
FA
Buchholz
Porcello
Rodriguez
Miley
Kimbrel
Uehara
Tazawa
Kelly (also long man / spot starter)
Ross (or optioned to make room for Varvaro)
Layne (LOOGY)
Wright (long man / spot starter)
Workman, Barnes, Ramirez, Light, Hembree, Aro, etc. (injury callups)
Owens, Johnson (starter callups, probably only if both Kelly and Wright are already in the rotation)
You could just stand pat. You'll note that this is the last poll option, however.
Someone is almost always injured among your 12 guys, and Ross, who's just a bit better than average, has an option left. You can sign a reliever (either a stud setup guy like O'Day, or take a flyer on an upside arm) and make the pen significantly better. Meanwhile, Ross (or one of the AAA guys if they surpass him) will still spend most of the year in MLB. In a vacuum, it's hard to argue against that.
Also however, there's reason to believe that Kelly is, right now, a better starter than Miley, and the same may be true of Wright, and by mid-season, Owens. So dealing Miley for a quality setup reliever with 4-5 years of control (or an even better one with 3 years) should upgrade both halves of the staff. Furthermore, it seems like the Sox have moved past the conventional sabermetric wisdom that relievers are hugely overvalued and have adopted the notion that an ultra-elite bullpen like the Royals' has value not measured by conventional WAR. In which case, they should be able to find a team that thinks this new post-wisdom wisdom is wrong, and would jump at such a trade. I think it's also hard to argue against this. (And it is furthermore desirable if you sign Price, because it restores the rotation to 3 RHP and 2 LHP.)
And note that this is independent of adding a pitcher to relegate Ross to the 13th man / 1st injury fill-in. You can do one, the other, or both.
What's most interesting to me is the idea of doing the Miley trade and signing Rich Hill as the guy who relegates Ross to AAA whenever everyone is, miraculously, healthy. That pushes Kelly back to the pen, and having both Kelly and Wright as long men means it's easier to use Layne as a true (and terrific) LOOGY.
If we can trade Miley for a fourth high-leverage guy, I think that signing someone else in order to send Ross to AAA arguably becomes a different sort of proposition. Rather than shell out significant bucks to sign an O'Day, I think you'd sign the mid-tier guy you thought was ready to step up or bounce back and pitch in high leverage. (Of course, that describes Hill as well, except he has the added bonus of being a potential #2 starter.) IOW, trading for the extra quality setup guy gives you the leeway to try to strike gold with an upside arm.
So what's your plan?
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Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2015 15:03:40 GMT -5
Also however, there's reason to believe that Kelly is, right now, a better starter than Miley, and the same may be true of Wright, and by mid-season, Owens. This is really the crux of your argument, and I'd like you to provide these reasons. |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2015 15:14:52 GMT -5
Also however, there's reason to believe that Kelly is, right now, a better starter than Miley, and the same may be true of Wright, and by mid-season, Owens. This is really the crux of your argument, and I'd like you to provide these reasons. I'm already disrupting my life by spending too much time here! You'll have to do a search by posts on me about Kelly. I thought there was one where I looked at his xFIP and/or SIERA after his recall and made some conservative estimates that put him better than Miley. This seems to be a quick and dirty precursor version of it. And of course I did a lot of analysis on how completely he had changed his pitch selection during that stretch. There's actually a thread on that. The whole board has already heard my reasons about Wright, and made up their minds, I think ... but we all know that Kelly would get the first shot anyway. Trading Miley to give Kelly the 5th starter job is, of course, precisely what the projected rosters have. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 14, 2015 16:16:51 GMT -5
Eric my problem with this poll.....is it is too much about Miley.
Here is what I think we should do to "finish the bullpen": sign one more established relief pitcher. Many on here seem to like our 2 lefties we have. Layne is OK for pitching to a left handed hitter or two, and that is it. Robbie Ross is underwhelming, but I guess we can live with him. Not strong enough for me against quality lefty bats. I'd like us to sign Bastardo 1st, and if not him, Sipp. If we stay right handed, I like Madson or Lowe.
That is all I would do to finish the bullpen. The rest of the money in free agency needs to go toward an ace and a 4th outfielder.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 14, 2015 19:55:37 GMT -5
I'm gonna go to the idea that the pen is largely finished as is if Varvaro is healthy. Varvaro used to set up for Kimbrel with Atlanta.
Kimbrel
Koji
Tazawa
Varvaro
Ross
Layne
Barnes
Wright, Hembree, Aro, Light, Noe Ramirez, Workman as depth seems all right. You hope one of those guys separates himself. Not against adding anyone else by any means, I just don't hate that current arrangement.
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Post by mjammz on Nov 14, 2015 20:51:51 GMT -5
I'm gonna go to the idea that the pen is largely finished as is if Varvaro is healthy. Varvaro used to set up for Kimbrel with Atlanta. Kimbrel Koji Tazawa Varvaro Ross Layne Barnes Wright, Hembree, Aro, Light, Noe Ramirez, Workman as depth seems all right. You hope one of those guys separates himself. Not against adding anyone else by any means, I just don't hate that current arrangement. In his end of year press conference Dombrowski said he wants to add two relievers to the pen, so there is no way the pen is finished. He also spent the entire GM meetings meeting with a number of FA relievers, while knowing full well he's likely to trade for a star closer. IMO they still sign a quality reliever and as the winter winds down trades some of their depth and a depth prospect for a high upside RP. |
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 14, 2015 20:59:15 GMT -5
I'm gonna go to the idea that the pen is largely finished as is if Varvaro is healthy. Varvaro used to set up for Kimbrel with Atlanta. Kimbrel Koji Tazawa Varvaro Ross Layne Barnes Wright, Hembree, Aro, Light, Noe Ramirez, Workman as depth seems all right. You hope one of those guys separates himself. Not against adding anyone else by any means, I just don't hate that current arrangement. In his end of year press conference Dombrowski said he wants to add two relievers to the pen, so there is no way the pen is finished. He also spent the entire GM meetings meeting with a number of FA relievers, while knowing full well he's likely to trade for a star closer. IMO they still sign a quality reliever and as the winter winds down trades some of their depth and a depth prospect for a high upside RP. Could be. I'm not so sure they'll go after another reliever in FA. If they're adding Zimmerman and a 4th OF like Davis/Young, that's another 30+ mill to add to Kimbrel's 12ish. Dombrowski has largely been a straight shooter so far, and stressed heavily in his conference call about how they were able to add Kimbrel without taking talent off their ML roster. Will be interesting where they go with it. Varvaro is supposed to start throwing this month, so I think relief will take a little backseat unless someone approaches them with a can't say no offer for someone like will smith. |
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Post by thursty on Nov 14, 2015 21:55:26 GMT -5
To answer the question posed ==> fire Dino (as in dinosaur) Dombrowski
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manus
New Member
Posts: 1 
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Post by manus on Nov 14, 2015 23:25:14 GMT -5
Love the Kimbrel addition, tho looking at the Pen now they should go sign altest one or two more guys. They should go after one of the top 2 Leftys in FA Market which i prefer Bastardo and sign a cheap righty like a Ryan Webb or give another shot to Burke Badenhop I would also add lefty Eric O'flaherty to the list of Cheap Solid Relivers I would sign and not to mention he was part of that deadly Braves Bullpen in (11-13) . as for Kelly and Miley thats anyones guess.
So heres my projected pen for 2016.
CL Kimbrel
SU1 Koji
SU2 Taz
LHP Bastardo
RHP Webb or Badenhop
LHP Layne or Ross (Spring training position battle)
Long Wright.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 15, 2015 0:13:06 GMT -5
I have yet to see anything that tells me Kelly is likely to pitch more than 150 or so innings and I think we'd be better served with him in the pen. We also have Barnes who's been told will be in the pen from the word go. There's also Light and Ramirez. I don't see the need for another right handed reliever.
I'm for signing a starter and leaving Miley in place until the trade deadline. That gives us time to see the situation with Johnson and unfortunately, puts Owens back at Pawtucket but depth never hurt.
If we keep Miley and move Kelly to the pen, I'm 50-50 on what we should do with Wright, reliever in Boston or starter in Pawtucket. Hill is a wild card but certainly worth the gamble. If Hill works out as hoped, Miley could be dealt before the season start.
starters:
FA
Porcello
Rodriguez
Buccholz
Miley/Hill (but by midseason, Owens)
relievers:
Kimbrel
Koji
Tazawa
Varvaro
Barnes (or Hill)
Layne
Kelly
If we pick up a power lefty someplace, Barnes goes down. There's also a non-zero that Varvaro starts the year on the 60 day at XST.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 15, 2015 1:48:09 GMT -5
Pray to God one of Pat Light, Kyle Martin, Madison Younginer, or Simon Mercedes learns to effectively command their fastball and get their secondary over the plate often enough to be more than a "show me."
Seriously. Kind of. I'd keep Miley now, and use Kelly as the "swingman," mostly because of Kelly's (and Buchholz's semi-recurrent) inability to break the 150-inning barrier and Miley's totally average but wholly predictable 200 innings at low cost (that might get a little better with a fair defense). Signing one more established, reasonably predictable 'pen arm like O'Day would be a luxury, but is probably not now absolutely needed.
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Post by supersquid on Nov 15, 2015 4:49:31 GMT -5
Pray to God one of Pat Light, Kyle Martin, Madison Younginer, or Simon Mercedes learns to effectively command their fastball and get their secondary over the plate often enough to be more than a "show me." Seriously. Kind of. I'd keep Miley now, and use Kelly as the "swingman," mostly because of Kelly's (and Buchholz's semi-recurrent) inability to break the 150-inning barrier and Miley's totally average but wholly predictable 200 innings at low cost (that might get a little better with a fair defense). Signing one more established, reasonably predictable 'pen arm like O'Day would be a luxury, but is probably not now absolutely needed. I believe Younginer is with the Braves now. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 15, 2015 7:49:03 GMT -5
It's hard to answer the question because the choice depends almost entirely on the acquisition. The Sox don't *have* to do anything. A back end of the bullpen of Koji/Kimbrel/Tazawa is potentially terrific, with some useful arms around them. So, sure, if a "cheap upside arm" exists that's worth the money, great. If some pitcher currently the Sox can get an absolute stud of a reliever, maybe. But it's hard to make that choice in a vacuum.
And, to this poll specifically, I like Miley a lot. I've seen enough teams get killed by replacement level (or worse) starts to value Miley's ability to soak up innings at a fairly-effective level. Sure, Kelly *may* be better, but he could be a lot worse, too.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,826
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Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2015 12:58:01 GMT -5
I like Sipp, but I'm unsure how coveted he'll be.
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Post by p23w on Nov 15, 2015 22:34:02 GMT -5
I would trade for (and extend for four years) Drew Storen. Between Kimbrel, Koji, and Storen the 8th and 9th inning is covered by a proven closer. Quality depth, injury insurance. As good or better than the Royals or Yankees. Sort out the balance of the BP during ST. Oh yeah, sign Hill.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 15, 2015 23:24:10 GMT -5
I would trade for (and extend for four years) Drew Storen. Between Kimbrel, Koji, and Storen the 8th and 9th inning is covered by a proven closer. Quality depth, injury insurance. As good or better than the Royals or Yankees. Sort out the balance of the BP during ST. Oh yeah, sign Hill. I would love to get storen from Washington, but not sure we match up as trade partners. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 16, 2015 1:26:05 GMT -5
I would trade for (and extend for four years) Drew Storen. Between Kimbrel, Koji, and Storen the 8th and 9th inning is covered by a proven closer. Quality depth, injury insurance. As good or better than the Royals or Yankees. Sort out the balance of the BP during ST. Oh yeah, sign Hill. I would love to get storen from Washington, but not sure we match up as trade partners. Plus storen already pissed that Paplebon was the closer and he was moved to the 8th. No way he is happy to be here behind 2 proven guys better than him. My vote is keep Miley and move Bucholtz or Porcello. The pen does need at least one more hard thrower, preferably LH. |
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Post by redsoxduck on Nov 16, 2015 3:10:03 GMT -5
I would want one more left hander to top that side of the pen. Someone like Sipp could be a good get. I like Ross but not sure I want him as our top leftie. I think we're good on righties including depth. Would also keep Miley. He isn't great but he's reliable. In a rotation that might have both Buchholz and Kelly needs other pitchers who you can count on bring there every 5 days
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 16, 2015 8:36:54 GMT -5
I just don't see room for anyone else unless they're dumping guys on the team already. I'm not sure if they'll put Kelly in the pen or not, but that might be the last move.
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Post by p23w on Nov 16, 2015 10:13:57 GMT -5
I would love to get storen from Washington, but not sure we match up as trade partners. Plus storen already pissed that Paplebon was the closer and he was moved to the 8th. No way he is happy to be here behind 2 proven guys better than him. My vote is keep Miley and move Bucholtz or Porcello. The pen does need at least one more hard thrower, preferably LH. Storen is pissed at Nats management (including the clueless recently departed manager). Storen knows Kimbrel. He knows he would be 2nd fiddle to Craig. Storen is not "behind" Uehara. Kimbrel closes the close games, no questions. Storen or Uehara finish off those games where Kimbrel needs breather. Who finishes the game off depends on the match ups. Point being you have three arms with 30+ save seasons at the ready. Anyone of which can step into the breech should an injury befall one of the others. One has to factor in Koji's age, and the fact that Storen has a 43 save season under his belt. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 16, 2015 10:26:56 GMT -5
If we have the money to get a starter and O'Day in free agency, I'd do that and put a bow on the pitching staff. Give Kelly a shot to win a starting rotation spot out of spring training, but really I have him penciled into the bullpen. I'm OK with an average rotation if we had 4 good options out of the bullpen with O'Day/FA, Tazawa, Uehara, Kimbrell, and some others with upside like Kelly and Light. Owens and Johnson are very valuable pieces in this construct, as starting depth.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 16, 2015 10:33:30 GMT -5
Plus storen already pissed that Paplebon was the closer and he was moved to the 8th. No way he is happy to be here behind 2 proven guys better than him. My vote is keep Miley and move Bucholtz or Porcello. The pen does need at least one more hard thrower, preferably LH. Storen is pissed at Nats management (including the clueless recently departed manager). Storen knows Kimbrel. He knows he would be 2nd fiddle to Craig. Storen is not "behind" Uehara. Kimbrel closes the close games, no questions. Storen or Uehara finish off those games where Kimbrel needs breather. Who finishes the game off depends on the match ups. Point being you have three arms with 30+ save seasons at the ready. Anyone of which can step into the breech should an injury befall one of the others. One has to factor in Koji's age, and the fact that Storen has a 43 save season under his belt. Remember watching the NYY this year...they had to use their 2 best relievers so much, that at the end of the season, they were toast. And that was with having Justin Wilson....I believe we don't NEED another bullpen arm, but they should get a guy like Storen to alleviate the pressure off Koji/Kimbrel to close out games.....KC had, what 4 or 5 guys that could shut down the end of a game. The Mets had 2 in Clippard & Familia & you saw that 2 couldn't do it.....I don't put Tazawa in that shutdown mold. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 16, 2015 13:03:36 GMT -5
I don't know why so many want to put Joe Kelly in the bullpen. Looking up his record I see that only his first two years in A ball did he play almost entirely in relief. And his era was not as good, by far, as when he became a full time starter.
When he reached the majors with Saint Louis, he had only two seasons where he was used mostly in relief. Kelly has a four pitch repertoire, a trait that usually is found with starters. He seemed to turn the corner this season with his eight game consecutive win streak late in the season. I don't think it's wise to mess with his psyche and give him a different role, when he seems to have matured as a pitcher by altering his attitude as a strikeout guy in favor of using his complete arsenal.
Add: I did not vote in the poll since, as steveofbradenton noted, it's all about Miley. Also note that there is an identical thread on this subject (without the poll).
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 16, 2015 13:28:48 GMT -5
Pen at the moment:
Kimbrel
Koji
Tazawa
Varvaro
Barnes
Layne
Kelly
Seems like a pointless exercise signing more marginal bullpen guys when Sox still have Ross, Workman, Hembree, Escobar, Aro, Light on the cheap just chilling in AAA? Do we plan on letting these guys become DFA fodder because we want to go out and allocate more dollars and roster space to some FA body? To what degree of confidence do we have that they will be any better than experimenting with the options of the 6 minor league guys I just mentioned? Last thing I want is Sox signing another Edward Mujica who we are forced into high leverage situations because the FO invested money in him as a late inning guy.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,826
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Post by nomar on Nov 16, 2015 14:20:04 GMT -5
Really excited to see what Kelly can do out of the pen (if we really do get to see that).
Varvaro is clearly not a guy you want in your clubhouse. I have a hard time believing he'll be around even if he has set up for Kimbrel before. I wouldn't be surprised to see us sign Soria still.
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