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Post by mgoetze on Dec 8, 2015 18:20:36 GMT -5
Scott Lauber @scottlauber · 17m17 minutes ago
Farrell says he believes #RedSox have three pitchers who can throw 200 innings in 2016: Price, Porcello and ... Buchholz.
Well yeah, I guess it's technically possible.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 8, 2015 18:58:31 GMT -5
Must be adding ST innings
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 8, 2015 19:17:27 GMT -5
Must be adding ST innings Plus rehab.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 19:22:30 GMT -5
Not that it's anything but an idiotic pattern with no real basis you can base any projection on, but the seesaw effect of Buch's career the last 6 years says he's due for a ~28 start season lol
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2015 19:45:15 GMT -5
I bring this up in large part because I made this mistake yesterday, but Elias defected in 2010. I think we're at the point where we can't blame rust or rawness on his defection. It is weird, though, that they jumped him straight from AA in 2013 to the MLB rotation in 2014, albeit at age 25. He was basically the sensation in Mariners camp that year after learning his changeup. They made the same mistake the Red Sox did with Bradley in 2013, though Elias didn't burn an option so it wasn't quite as harmful.
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Post by jmei on Dec 8, 2015 19:52:29 GMT -5
To be fair, he had a pretty good 2014 season.
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Post by lithuaniansoxfan on Dec 8, 2015 20:16:32 GMT -5
Must be adding ST innings Plus rehab. And warm-up pitches.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2015 20:49:18 GMT -5
To be fair, he had a pretty good 2014 season. Yeah, looking back at his numbers they were better than I realized. Hard to call it a mistake with those numbers.
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Post by kyla13 on Dec 8, 2015 21:15:12 GMT -5
Must be adding ST innings Plus rehab. And it will still not come close to 200 innings.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 8, 2015 21:23:50 GMT -5
Buchholz is almost certainly not going to throw 200 regular season innings, but do any of us actually want that? It would pretty much guarantee he goes into September and the playoffs already at a career high. If they can get 150-175 pre-postseason from Clay and have him be healthy in October, I'm pretty sure everyone will take that
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2015 21:39:57 GMT -5
Given the acquisition price of young cost controlled pitching I'm glad the Sox didn't make any moves for Shelby Miller, and I'm sure the Indians pitchers would fetch more in a deal.
I'm glad the Sox stopped with Guerra, Margot, and Logan as prospects to give up, and were smart enough to throw the money at David Price.
The acquisition of starting pitching was pretty steep. The Sox were even able to fetch Carson Smith and Roenis Elias for Wade Miller, who isn't on the same level as Carrasco or Salazar or even Shelby Miller.
And as far as what Fernandez would cost, I'm sure it's far more than Guerra, Margot, and Logan.
I think if the Sox want to continue to improve their pitching, they might find their #2 if they can sign Cliff Lee provided that he will be healthy. I like the thought of him possibly being the #2 starter in the second half once Buchholz is on the DL. And I like Craig Stammen as another arm that can deepen the pen. He is supposed to be healthy now.
At this point, I don't want to see them trade anybody. Just make depth signings.
As it is, I'm pretty thrilled with how the pitching staff is shaping up.
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 8, 2015 21:40:01 GMT -5
Scott Lauber @scottlauber · 17m17 minutes ago Farrell says he believes #RedSox have three pitchers who can throw 200 innings in 2016: Price, Porcello and ... Buchholz. Well yeah, I guess it's technically possible. I'm a long time Farrell defender , but if he really thinks this, the detractors are right.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2015 21:52:45 GMT -5
Scott Lauber @scottlauber · 17m17 minutes ago Farrell says he believes #RedSox have three pitchers who can throw 200 innings in 2016: Price, Porcello and ... Buchholz. Well yeah, I guess it's technically possible. I'm a long time Farrell defender , but if he really thinks this, the detractors are right. Honestly, I think it's just lip service. They know Kelly and Rodriguez have to be monitored carefully, Kelly because he's never had the innings, and Rodriguez because of his youth and not wanting to ramp up his innings too much. I'm sure he knows Buchholz will be lucky to make 150 innings, but it would be kind of insulting to Buchholz if he acted publicly like he had no faith in him to be a horse.
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Post by p23w on Dec 8, 2015 22:49:10 GMT -5
Buchholz is almost certainly not going to throw 200 regular season innings, but do any of us actually want that? It would pretty much guarantee he goes into September and the playoffs already at a career high. If they can get 150-175 pre-postseason from Clay and have him be healthy in October, I'm pretty sure everyone will take that Pretty much agree that Buch won't throw 200 IP. I think 180 IP is his ceiling for 2016. Absolutely critical that he be at the top of his game come October.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 8, 2015 23:21:36 GMT -5
Buchholz is almost certainly not going to throw 200 regular season innings, but do any of us actually want that? It would pretty much guarantee he goes into September and the playoffs already at a career high. If they can get 150-175 pre-postseason from Clay and have him be healthy in October, I'm pretty sure everyone will take that Pretty much agree that Buch won't throw 200 IP. I think 180 IP is his ceiling for 2016. Absolutely critical that he be at the top of his game come October. I don't want him throwing 200. I realize it's not as cut and dry as "all of a sudden once you throw more IP than ever in your career you suck", but I'd prefer not to test it with Buchholz unless he's having one of those CY spurts that happens to last an entire season. Get 3/4 of the season out of him, have him close to 100% for the playoffs, call me happy. You'd likely be looking at E-rod/Buchholz as your 3rd/4th starters in the playoffs anyways, again, unless Buch goes on one of his spurts
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 8, 2015 23:30:50 GMT -5
Well, it is a leap year ....
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Post by proudtoserve on Jan 14, 2016 7:07:22 GMT -5
Good thread....signing Price....this has got to be a lift for the skinny guy and annoying diet in Bucholz, who does not have to pretend to be number 1, nor Porcello to be number 1, nor ERod, for EROD to think he is the #2 is absurb, give him #4 to feel he needs to be number 2 is an outrage.....its a complete clean slate from "we are all number 1s", from spring training 2015.....my gut says Bucholz finally hits his comfort zone and is a real number 1 (but obviously shadowing Price), as he has the stuff....just needs a foot off the pressure.....Porcello, in a perception of number 2 or 3 instead of number 1 with his salary will have a great platform......just hope the Front Office does not push ERod .....happy to have him exceed number 4 expectations, wouldn't you?
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 14, 2016 7:40:24 GMT -5
Good thread....signing Price....this has got to be a lift for the skinny guy and annoying diet in Bucholz, who does not have to pretend to be number 1, nor Porcello to be number 1, nor ERod, for EROD to think he is the #2 is absurb, give him #4 to feel he needs to be number 2 is an outrage.....its a complete clean slate from "we are all number 1s", from spring training 2015.....my gut says Bucholz finally hits his comfort zone and is a real number 1 (but obviously shadowing Price), as he has the stuff....just needs a foot off the pressure.....Porcello, in a perception of number 2 or 3 instead of number 1 with his salary will have a great platform......just hope the Front Office does not push ERod .....happy to have him exceed number 4 expectations, wouldn't you? I really doubt anyone feels much extra pressure because of the starter # that a team labels you as (which is more what we do than what the team does). The job is to get batters out as well as you can, for your career, for your future earnings, for the team. The job of a #5 is the exact same one as a #1. They just don't do it as well.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 14, 2016 9:02:41 GMT -5
Good thread....signing Price....this has got to be a lift for the skinny guy and annoying diet in Bucholz, who does not have to pretend to be number 1, nor Porcello to be number 1, nor ERod, for EROD to think he is the #2 is absurb, give him #4 to feel he needs to be number 2 is an outrage.....its a complete clean slate from "we are all number 1s", from spring training 2015.....my gut says Bucholz finally hits his comfort zone and is a real number 1 (but obviously shadowing Price), as he has the stuff....just needs a foot off the pressure.....Porcello, in a perception of number 2 or 3 instead of number 1 with his salary will have a great platform......just hope the Front Office does not push ERod .....happy to have him exceed number 4 expectations, wouldn't you? I like your thinking here. I remember when Buch almost won the ERA title and praise was being heaped on him. At the time he deflected it essentially saying that he was not that good. I interpreted that to be an effort to avoid pressure and expectations. I also think there is merit in the Porcello case where he came in with a big contract, accompanying expectations and apparently tried to change his approach to being a strike-out pitcher to justify his expected dominance. Erod should not have to deal with huge expectations either. I expect that there will be adjustments back and forth b/t Erod and the batters all season with some ups and downs as he continues to learn at the major league level. Kelly put the target on his own back last year with the Cy Young comment and tried to blow people away with his great fastball....perhaps as evidence of his worth. I think that you hit on something.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 14, 2016 9:18:28 GMT -5
Is it even a thought to have Buchholz just not pitch until the AS break. Keep him in XST. It appears he cannot go a full season with the addition to the playoffs. This way he can air it out for 3 months. Maybe skipping starts is another option. I agree with MREDSOX89 as there is no way Clay can go a full season plus the playoffs & be effective. I don't see that much of a downgrade to slot Owens into his slot to begin the year.
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Post by jmei on Jan 14, 2016 11:38:05 GMT -5
Is it even a thought to have Buchholz just not pitch until the AS break. Keep him in XST. It appears he cannot go a full season with the addition to the playoffs. This way he can air it out for 3 months. Maybe skipping starts is another option. I agree with MREDSOX89 as there is no way Clay can go a full season plus the playoffs & be effective. I don't see that much of a downgrade to slot Owens into his slot to begin the year. This is not really how it works. His injury issues are not so strictly tied to over-usage such that every time he throws a certain number of innings, he breaks down. While there have been cases where he's been great in his first 100 innings and then gets hurt (2013 and 2015), there have also been cases where he gets injured early in the season, misses some time, and then comes back and pitches well (2010, 2014). In other words, the analogy is not that Buchholz has 100 bullets in his arm, they can pick and choose when he uses those bullets, and so they should start him later in the season so he uses the last of those bullets in the stretch run/postseason. He just gets hurt sometimes, and if you try to hold him back and he gets hurt in his third start back, all you're doing is ensuring that he doesn't have enough rehab time to potentially come back in time for the playoffs.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 14, 2016 12:30:45 GMT -5
Is it even a thought to have Buchholz just not pitch until the AS break. Keep him in XST. It appears he cannot go a full season with the addition to the playoffs. This way he can air it out for 3 months. Maybe skipping starts is another option. I agree with MREDSOX89 as there is no way Clay can go a full season plus the playoffs & be effective. I don't see that much of a downgrade to slot Owens into his slot to begin the year. This is not really how it works. His injury issues are not so strictly tied to over-usage such that every time he throws a certain number of innings, he breaks down. While there have been cases where he's been great in his first 100 innings and then gets hurt (2013 and 2015), there have also been cases where he gets injured early in the season, misses some time, and then comes back and pitches well (2010, 2014). In other words, the analogy is not that Buchholz has 100 bullets in his arm, they can pick and choose when he uses those bullets, and so they should start him later in the season so he uses the last of those bullets in the stretch run/postseason. He just gets hurt sometimes, and if you try to hold him back and he gets hurt in his third start back, all you're doing is ensuring that he doesn't have enough rehab time to potentially come back in time for the playoffs. OK. Best case scenario is he DOESN'T get hurt/sore/injured all year. Doesn't miss a start. If this happens, do you think he will have enough "bullets" to be effective in late Sept/Oct when it really counts? He is like a ticking time bomb.
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Post by jmei on Jan 14, 2016 12:52:46 GMT -5
Again, I don't think the "bullet" analogy is at all accurate. Instead, I think every time he goes out there, there is some percentage chance he gets injured. If he's made it through September and has been healthy all year, I don't think he's any more likely to get injured than if it was his first inning of the year. To the contrary, if he's been healthy all year, I'd guess he's probably more likely to stay healthy through the playoffs than if I knew nothing about how healthy he'd been to that point in the season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2016 3:00:11 GMT -5
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Post by proudtoserve on Jan 15, 2016 8:56:41 GMT -5
Is it even a thought to have Buchholz just not pitch until the AS break. Keep him in XST. It appears he cannot go a full season with the addition to the playoffs. This way he can air it out for 3 months. Maybe skipping starts is another option. I agree with MREDSOX89 as there is no way Clay can go a full season plus the playoffs & be effective. I don't see that much of a downgrade to slot Owens into his slot to begin the year. This is not really how it works. His injury issues are not so strictly tied to over-usage such that every time he throws a certain number of innings, he breaks down. While there have been cases where he's been great in his first 100 innings and then gets hurt (2013 and 2015), there have also been cases where he gets injured early in the season, misses some time, and then comes back and pitches well (2010, 2014). In other words, the analogy is not that Buchholz has 100 bullets in his arm, they can pick and choose when he uses those bullets, and so they should start him later in the season so he uses the last of those bullets in the stretch run/postseason. He just gets hurt sometimes, and if you try to hold him back and he gets hurt in his third start back, all you're doing is ensuring that he doesn't have enough rehab time to potentially come back in time for the playoffs.
I think these last two paras sum up pretty succinctly where we are at going into this season with Buchholz....I am personally a real believer in Buchholz, and have been as disappointed and distressed as everyone when he hits the DL or gurney.....
That's a pretty consistent track record of hurt with blasts of 100 inning excellence as pointed out...., 2010, 2013, 2014, and 2015 when not recovering from a more serious injury in between is cause for hand-wringing....
Whether it is diet or not, not sure what causes his breakdowns, but imagine if you were Buchholz, heading into Sox option years (2016 and 17), this guy is going to figure it out......
He knows he is labelled as talented but weak, potentially hot yet infirm, and that the entire Red Sox Nation has been patient with him since his 2004 selection, that's 11 years, which means the Sox staff, development, medical, minor-league, front office have been hanging with him, and Dombrowski himself....
Too much talent there....even he is going to eventually figure this out.....This is the year....
Diet, proper strength training, bullpen repetitions, physical therapy (I have no idea where the breakdown is, could be all?), but this will be the year he finally figures this out .....
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