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Post by ramireja on Dec 3, 2015 12:45:17 GMT -5
If we pencil in Price, Buchholz, Porcello, and Rodriguez into the first four spots of our rotation, then that leaves Miley, Kelly, Wright, Owens, and Johnson fighting for the 5th spot and providing depth. That leaves the question(s), where do we put everyone?
If we made no trades, I would presume that the most logical assignments would be:
#5 SP - Miley Bullpen - Kelly Bullpen - Wright (swingman) AAA - Owens AAA - Johnson
To be honest, I'd be mostly fine with that, but it does leave with me with a few lingering questions: How would Kelly fare in the bullpen especially given concerns he has expressed in the past about pitching in relief? Is Steven Wright best suited for a bullpen role of any sort, or does he pitch better in a more regular routine? Is Miley the best option to be pitching in our rotation, or is he simply the most durable (we should be starting the pitcher that we think can be the most effective, not just give us the most innings)? Would we better off trading one of these guys assuming we have reasonable depth to do so?
Personally, I think Owens or Johnson can be a very effective #5 starting this year. That said, in any given year, you certainly need more than 5 SP, and because they have options remaining, by default they get pushed into the 6th and 7th positions at AAA. However, as soon as a spot opens up, those are the guys who I want to have a chance because I really believe they're ready to perform and learn at the major league level. If it were me, I'd explore a trade for Miley, and if reasonable value is found on the market, I'd pull the trigger. If not, I'd probably start the season with the above configuration. I get that Miley has been durable and thats great, but we have enough depth to overcome his absence IMO. In other words, I don't really care if Miley gives us 200 innings of #5 SP value, or if its a combination of 100 Kelly innings, 100 Owens/Johnson innings. Having a durable pitcher is especially key when you don't have quality depth....but I think we have quality depth with potential to outperform Miley. If we were to trade Miley, I'd then put Kelly in the 5 spot, and keep Owens and Johnson ready to step up barring an injury or ineffectiveness on Kelly's part.
I'm interested to hear people's thoughts.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 3, 2015 13:10:18 GMT -5
I'm not sold on Joe Kelly as an option in the bullpen.
Its not like he has one or two really good pitches and a bunch of mediocre ones that get him into trouble. His fastball doesn't blow anyone away. His secondaries aren't that bad either. His repertoire is deep and he's at his best when the whole thing is working. And its not like he has a hard time sustaining velocity in games either. He's a strong kid and he can get through his starts.
I'm not saying Kelly would be BAD as a relief pitcher. I just don't see a reason why Kelly should be any better off coming out of the pen than he is as a starter. After all, if he's being good Joe Kelly you have no reason to take him out of the rotation. If he's being bad Joe Kelly I don't see a reason to expect it to change with a different role.
Rather trade Joe as a starting pitcher and drop some $$$ on a reliever (I want Tony Sipp like every single person on this forum does).
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2015 13:32:30 GMT -5
I think Kelly has options left and can be stashed in AAA.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2015 13:41:06 GMT -5
Keep them all until at least ST. Last time the Sox had six guys for five spots, Dempster retired and solved the issue for everyone. Last time they traded out of such a situation (Bronson Arroyo in 2006, when the rotation was Schilling-Wakefield-Wells-Beckett-Clement), Lenny Dinardo was making starts by the middle of April.
No question that with health, the #5 job is down to Miley and Kelly. Stash Owens and Johnson. Wright to the bullpen. If you get blown away for Miley at that point by a team that's desperate, then great.
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Post by rsnationiowa on Dec 3, 2015 13:46:02 GMT -5
Massarotti on Twitter calling for the Sox to sign Cliff Lee. Could he be had on a minor league deal? Wouldn't be a bad signing if it is low risk.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 3, 2015 14:05:12 GMT -5
Might be a stupid idea, or maybe highly unlikely to be able to pull off, but I wonder if the Sox could swing a 2 for 1 deal, where they trade Miley and Kelly to a team that needs multiple pitchers to fill out their rotation and gets back a pitcher who might slot as more of a #2 or high end #3 in our rotation. Not sure who that could be at this point, really just off the top of my head, Shelby Miller, Gio Gonzalez, James Shields come to mind, I’m sure there are lots of other pitchers of this caliber, not sure if they might be available for Miley and Kelly.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 3, 2015 14:05:55 GMT -5
Massarotti on Twitter calling for the Sox to sign Cliff Lee. Could he be had on a minor league deal? Wouldn't be a bad signing if it is low risk. Would be all for Cliff Lee on a minor league deal.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2015 14:25:48 GMT -5
Massarotti on Twitter calling for the Sox to sign Cliff Lee. Could he be had on a minor league deal? Wouldn't be a bad signing if it is low risk. Would be all for Cliff Lee on a minor league deal. I can't imagine why he'd want to sign a minor league deal. He made $37.5 million last year and is 37. Who in that situation is signing up for bus rides?
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 3, 2015 14:31:09 GMT -5
Would be all for Cliff Lee on a minor league deal. I can't imagine why he'd want to sign a minor league deal. He made $37.5 million last year and is 37. Who in that situation is signing up for bus rides? It would definitely be under the premise that he would have a shot to win a spot in the MLB rotation out of spring training. Under those circumstances, Lee could pick any number of teams with a lot more opportunity than the Red Sox, but I would still take a shot on him if I'm the Sox just on the chance he can come in and win a spot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2015 14:35:56 GMT -5
I can't imagine why he'd want to sign a minor league deal. He made $37.5 million last year and is 37. Who in that situation is signing up for bus rides? It would definitely be under the premise that he would have a shot to win a spot in the MLB rotation out of spring training. Under those circumstances, Lee could pick any number of teams with a lot more opportunity than the Red Sox, but I would still take a shot on him if I'm the Sox just on the chance he can come in and win a spot. Right, would be a minor league deal with an opt-out before the season starts.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 3, 2015 15:00:19 GMT -5
I'm not sold on Johnson yet, so I'm reluctant to depend on him. The Sox need a Buchholz replacement for his inevitable trip to the DL. If you consider that to be Kelly, you've got Owens and Wright, with Johnson TBD. Not sure that screams "surplus pitching" to me.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 3, 2015 15:49:37 GMT -5
Like others have said, you stand pat until spring training. But secretly listen if someone comes to you with a good deal involving Kelly, Miley or Johnson. I really would like to hold onto Owens.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 3, 2015 16:06:14 GMT -5
Nice, a lot of people are answering the "do we make a trade this offseason" part of the question. But my other question is, as of now, how would you assign the pitchers. I get that jobs can and should be won in ST, but humor me if you had to set the rotation/bullpen/AAA now.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 3, 2015 16:10:46 GMT -5
Miley the best option to be pitching in our rotation, or is he simply the most durable (we should be starting the pitcher that we think can be the most effective, not just give us the most innings)? To many people here do not realize the importance of IP, it's not as if you can throw in any ol pitcher to fill in the gap or piggy back a start. Someone else categorically showed that Miley was indeed a # 3 on an average team. We don't want to be an average team, therefore Miley gets moved down the rotation. Fine, but lets not get carried away. To many people are infatuated with the perception of a pitchers ceiling while dismissing that the floor of Miley is higher in every example provided (in relation to Kelly, Johnson, Owens and Wright). We have alot of pitchers whose floor is not clear, see Buchholz, Erod, Porcela, and anyone not named Price. Miley while not sexy is a know value whose extremely durable, and that is undervalued by to many here. Miley is way more valuable to this team because of that. Clay Buchholz is dependable in that you can depend on him not being around when needed. So why would you deal with that, because Owens (insert your player of choice here) can piggy back him? So that's essentially wasting a roster spot for what? I've already shown that even expecting Clay to be good is akin to chasing fools gold. His last 2 seasons he's pitched more than 113 IP he's been a below average pitcher. Buchholz has tantilized everyone with glimpes of greatness from his second start (I saw his first 1) and that is why he'd be more valuable to another team. Package him with Kelly or one of Johnson/Owens and turn him into a #2-ish pitcher with 4+ years under his belt. We'd save money and have a better pitcher while maintaining depth with 3 of Kelly, Owens, Johnson and Wright still in tow. Or trade him for prospects and give one of Owens or Johnson a real chance. In summary Buchholz floor is a burden we should not endure, his ceiling is teasing and should be used to lure others into believing maybe just maybe this is the year. Good luck with that. EDIT: PS: I've stated the above as far back as the beginning of last season and was fooled myself into thinking maybe this year he does it, never again. I've made this point enough time that I'm done making it.
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Post by awall on Dec 3, 2015 16:45:04 GMT -5
Owens, Hanley and a bag of cash for minor league talent. Wright in the bullpen and likely first injury stopgap, Johnson and kelly to AAA to start the year.
ps. And I really like Owens.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2015 17:13:27 GMT -5
Trade Owens before Fenway starts turning all those fly balls into extra base hits. I like him, but he's a poor fit for the park, and I worry that his value only goes down from here if he stays.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 3, 2015 19:32:21 GMT -5
Kelly to the bullpen as that 4th high end guy I've hoped for, and the eventual successor to Koji as 8th inning guy.
For me, Buchholz is my problem child. Love him when he's on, but always waiting for that injury to occur. I'd like more security from the guy I'm calling my #2 starter.
Note: If a #2 starter deal is offered, and can be had with depth (JBJ, Castillo, Miley, Kelly, Owens, Johnson) then sure, make that deal. But I'm not seeing that deal happening, so how to proceed?
I'm seeing them starting the year with him penciled into the rotation as follows: Price, Porcello, ERod, Buchholz, Miley in order to have a LRLRL setup. By slotting Buchholz 4th, any need to replace him has a cheaper cost (I know that's not real, but I like it anyway) I'm guessing they're looking for Porcello to be the guy we thought we were getting, that guy that showed up late in the season, so thet can trust him in that 2 hole. I'm also guessing they're looking for continued high performance from ERod, and the same reliable performance from Miley, while pulling him at the end of 6 every game.
This is where they need Owens, or Johnson to step up. One of them has to show quality innings in ST, and in the first half of the year at AAA. They have to show control and command when called for a spot start, and give leadership the trust to go forward with them.
If all these things happen, I think they'd feel OK with trading Buchholz at the deadline. If there were a roster need that arose in the first half, he could bring that piece, but more likely he brings a high end relief arm and a mid level arm for AA, or AAA.
If any of the conditions outlined were not met, they could simply hang on to him, and choose to offer him next offseason when Strasburg is the only big FA name out there. I suspect the Mets will shop Harvey, and the Marlins will shop Fernandez next year, so Buchholz would be in a 2nd tier of starter options that may be available.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2015 12:15:28 GMT -5
Trade Owens before Fenway starts turning all those fly balls into extra base hits. I like him, but he's a poor fit for the park, and I worry that his value only goes down from here if he stays. I don't trade Owens. He spent the year trying to refine his secondary pitchers and the result was a decline in his strikeout rate. I see no reason his strikeout rate won't climb back up the elite level he showed in the minors for years. I have to say am shocked over the last year how most people don't seem to value Owens much at all. He's the best pitching prospect to come through our system in a long time (Rodriguez was acquired in a trade).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2015 12:24:41 GMT -5
I have Miley as #5 starter. Kelly in Pen and Owens and Johnson in Minors. Wright might end up in pen, but I think he gets released due to no options and Dave bring in a few more arms for the pen.
Now I would trade Miley, but the return would have to be really good. Would Cleveland do a Miley and JBJ for Carrasco or Salazar?
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 413
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Post by badfishnbc on Dec 4, 2015 13:14:08 GMT -5
Now I would trade Miley, but the return would have to be really good. Would Cleveland do a Miley and JBJ for Carrasco or Salazar? I trade Buchholz - now's the only time to do it. He's on a reasonable deal, and if he starts hot, it's tough to justify moving him. If he gets hurt or pitches like junk, you can't move him. Would the allure of Buchholz and JBJ be enough to get the Mariners to bite on Hanley as their DH, with Zunino coming back to Boston?
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 4, 2015 13:26:13 GMT -5
Now I would trade Miley, but the return would have to be really good. Would Cleveland do a Miley and JBJ for Carrasco or Salazar? I trade Buchholz - now's the only time to do it. He's on a reasonable deal, and if he starts hot, it's tough to justify moving him. If he gets hurt or pitches like junk, you can't move him. Would the allure of Buchholz and JBJ be enough to get the Mariners to bite on Hanley as their DH, with Zunino coming back to Boston? Zunino coming back to Boston... what?
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 4, 2015 13:50:53 GMT -5
Nice, a lot of people are answering the "do we make a trade this offseason" part of the question. But my other question is, as of now, how would you assign the pitchers. I get that jobs can and should be won in ST, but humor me if you had to set the rotation/bullpen/AAA now. I'm giving Miley, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, and Wright the chance to start out of spring training, but it would have to take a lot for me to bump Miley out of the rotation for one, especially the last three. I think Kelly is a reliever, but based on what he does in spring training, (assuming he doesn't beat out Miley), I put him in the bullpen or AAA rotation. Wright to the bullpen also as long man/spot starter. I wouldn't shop any of these guys. I wouldn't trade Owens or Johnson in any realistic trade that involves only them or a salary dump, meaning I would consider using them in a package to get a better player like Quintana or Carrasco, but not in a trade to get a different prospect or to dump Hanley/Sandoval $. Joe Kelly is really a tough one to peg. From my untrained eye, he stuff looks filthy. Great velocity on his fastball with good movement, and his breaking pitches also have a lot of movement. I also don't see a control problem, but he doesn't have strong command. When I watch him I just can't understand why he isn't better. The potential is there, but it may never be realized. To me he's burned his slack and he's on a short leash, if he's not firing to start the year I think it's time to commit him to relieving for a year. Maybe if you limit him to two pitches he can turn into a Miller/Bentances type or a Wade Davis type using his whole arsenal, or maybe he is just a Tazawa 7th/8th inning guy. If he is able to contribute to the back end of the bullpen he adds a lot to the team.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2015 13:53:34 GMT -5
I trade Buchholz - now's the only time to do it. He's on a reasonable deal, and if he starts hot, it's tough to justify moving him. If he gets hurt or pitches like junk, you can't move him. Would the allure of Buchholz and JBJ be enough to get the Mariners to bite on Hanley as their DH, with Zunino coming back to Boston? Zunino coming back to Boston... what? He meant as the return in a deal, not returning to Boston for a second tour of duty. Anyways, I would have no desire to do this deal. If healthy, (big caveat I know) Hanley should hit very well, and should be able to stay healthier as a very viable DH the following year. I'd move Sandoval before I ever move Hanley. Why would the Sox give up a part-time effective pitcher in Buchholz and include a guy like JBJ? What would Zunino give the Sox? They have Swihart behind the plate and Vazquez in AAA. I don't get it. I'm not sure if this is the place to put it, but if the Sox can get a young #2 type pitcher and it costs them JBJ and Owens and a prospect not named Devers, Moncada, Espinoza, Benintendi or Kopech, I would think they could do it, but they would need to find an outfielder to replace JBJ (with Betts shifting to CF) and take a lot of ABs against righties. LH bats David Murphy or DeAza is the only name on the list that would make sense if the idea is to hang onto your draft pick (by not signing Gordon) and not get into another huge contract. Perhaps Miley and or/ Kelly could fetch a LH corner OF that could at worst be a good platoon player? You figure the rotation would be Price, young #2 pitcher acquisition - we'll call that guy Shelby Miller, Buchholz, Rodriguez, and Porcello with Wright, Johnson, and most likely Kelly the depth options. I like Shelby Miller as a pitcher but I do wonder why the Cards didn't pitch him in the 2013 World Series, and I do wonder why they didn't make him untouchable in a deal for Heyward and why Atlanta now is dangling him. You think a 25 year old kid with his numbers would be a kid you'd want to hang onto. I'm just not sure what gives. I do have to wonder, based on what BriSox is posting - if the Sox are to get the young pitcher he talks of, does that mean Devers is a goner? He mentioned giving up a prospect we'll scream bloody murder over. I can't imagine they deal Moncada, Benintendi, or Espinoza at this point, but I don't know that Devers is as "safe" as they are. So does this mean JBJ + Owens + Devers to get a guy like Shelby Miller?
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 4, 2015 14:08:15 GMT -5
Zunino coming back to Boston... what? He meant as the return in a deal, not returning to Boston for a second tour of duty. Anyways, I would have no desire to do this deal. If healthy, (big caveat I know) Hanley should hit very well, and should be able to stay healthier as a very viable DH the following year. I'd move Sandoval before I ever move Hanley. Why would the Sox give up a part-time effective pitcher in Buchholz and include a guy like JBJ? What would Zunino give the Sox? They have Swihart behind the plate and Vazquez in AAA. I don't get it. I'm not sure if this is the place to put it, but if the Sox can get a young #2 type pitcher and it costs them JBJ and Owens and a prospect not named Devers, Moncada, Espinoza, Benintendi or Kopech, I would think they could do it, but they would need to find an outfielder to replace JBJ (with Betts shifting to CF) and take a lot of ABs against righties. LH bats David Murphy or DeAza is the only name on the list that would make sense if the idea is to hang onto your draft pick (by not signing Gordon) and not get into another huge contract. Perhaps Miley and or/ Kelly could fetch a LH corner OF that could at worst be a good platoon player? You figure the rotation would be Price, young #2 pitcher acquisition - we'll call that guy Shelby Miller, Buchholz, Rodriguez, and Porcello with Wright, Johnson, and most likely Kelly the depth options. I like Shelby Miller as a pitcher but I do wonder why the Cards didn't pitch him in the 2013 World Series, and I do wonder why they didn't make him untouchable in a deal for Heyward and why Atlanta now is dangling him. You think a 25 year old kid with his numbers would be a kid you'd want to hang onto. I'm just not sure what gives. I do have to wonder, based on what BriSox is posting - if the Sox are to get the young pitcher he talks of, does that mean Devers is a goner? He mentioned giving up a prospect we'll scream bloody murder over. I can't imagine they deal Moncada, Benintendi, or Espinoza at this point, but I don't know that Devers is as "safe" as they are. So does this mean JBJ + Owens + Devers to get a guy like Shelby Miller? I know what he meant by coming here as part of a deal. That literally is just unnecessary and makes no sense for us.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2015 14:10:57 GMT -5
As many of you've probably noticed, I've traded Owens several times already and would do so again. I could see Miley on the block, but it's a guess based on Dombrowski's love of hard throwers and Kelly's 8-1 revival (much of which happened within Dombrowski's view.
That said, I do recall similar conversations all the way back to 2008 and then looking up in July and lamenting that we didn't have enough starting pitching.
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