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Post by James Dunne on Jan 15, 2016 10:01:05 GMT -5
Again, I don't think the "bullet" analogy is at all accurate. Instead, I think every time he goes out there, there is some percentage chance he gets injured. If he's made it through September and has been healthy all year, I don't think he's any more likely to get injured than if it was his first inning of the year. To the contrary, if he's been healthy all year, I'd guess he's probably more likely to stay healthy through the playoffs than if I knew nothing about how healthy he'd been to that point in the season. Agree totally. His injuries have never been fatigue related as far as I know, and his effectiveness has certainly not waned as his innings have added up: his months over his career, by ERA from best to worst: June, September, August, May, July, April (by far his worst month). He's pitched 100 more regular season innings in his career in August/September/October than he has in June and July. He just gets hurt.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2016 3:28:02 GMT -5
Again, I don't think the "bullet" analogy is at all accurate. Instead, I think every time he goes out there, there is some percentage chance he gets injured. If he's made it through September and has been healthy all year, I don't think he's any more likely to get injured than if it was his first inning of the year. To the contrary, if he's been healthy all year, I'd guess he's probably more likely to stay healthy through the playoffs than if I knew nothing about how healthy he'd been to that point in the season. Agree totally. His injuries have never been fatigue related as far as I know, and his effectiveness has certainly not waned as his innings have added up: his months over his career, by ERA from best to worst: June, September, August, May, July, April (by far his worst month). He's pitched 100 more regular season innings in his career in August/September/October than he has in June and July. He just gets hurt. Actually, only twice in his career has he started any games after hitting the 180 IP mark. In 2009, he was coming off six starts with a: 28 ERA-, 63 FIP-, 76 xFIP-, .548 GB%, .207 Hard%, and .033 HR/FB. One of the best stretches of pitching in his career (an average Hard% is .285). His last two regular season starts: 313 ERA-, 263 FIP-, 87 xFIP-, .407 GB%, .296 Hard%, and .462 HR/FB. Those were on regular rest. His playoff outing, on 6 days rest, was OK, but nothing like what he was doing just before he hit 180 IP. In 2012, he was coming off 7 starts with a: 93 ERA-, 96 FIP-, 106 xFIP-, .446 GB%, .268 Hard%, and .077 HR/FB. His last 2 starts: 331 ERA-, 239 FIP-, 110 xFIP-, .400 GB%, .367 Hard%, and .444 HR/FB. For him, those four starts stand out for career-low GB%, and insanely high HR/FB and resulting high Hard% and awful ERA. So he has hit a wall really hard at 180 IP. Just twice, but in two chances. This is part of a Buchholz analysis I'm still working on.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 17, 2016 4:25:31 GMT -5
Thanks, Eric, for sharing that work. I look forward to the larger analysis. It may not be impossible for Clay to hit the predicted 200 IP, and it would be a good thing, but I see no urgent reason to make tbat a priority.
Quality is more important than quantity here, yes? ~130 quality innings or ~20 quality starts as a solid 1a/2 could help propel this team into contention. Let Johnson, Owens, Elias and Wright get their shots with the other 70 - 80 IP+++. I don't think we should worry about that, as the outcomes could also be of high quality, despite the learning curves. And, if necessary, top pitchers will be available at the deadline.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 17, 2016 11:24:38 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 18, 2016 7:18:36 GMT -5
Thanks, Eric, for sharing that work. I look forward to the larger analysis. It may not be impossible for Clay to hit the predicted 200 IP, and it would be a good thing, but I see no urgent reason to make tbat a priority. Quality is more important than quantity here, yes? ~130 quality innings or ~20 quality starts as a solid 1a/2 could help propel this team into contention. Let Johnson, Owens, Elias and Wright get their shots with the other 70 - 80 IP+++. I don't think we should worry about that, as the outcomes could also be of high quality, despite the learning curves. And, if necessary, top pitchers will be available at the deadline. This is exactly why I can't understand the people who want to get rid of Clay because he doesn't have the ability to stay healthy. Yes he most likely won't start much more than 20 games a year. But for the cost and what he brings to those 20 starts he is very valuable. Maybe the Sox should think of him like a deadline trade deal secret weapon/ Roger Clemens late in his career mercenary and throw him out there for the 2nd half. Or the mysteries 15 day DL stint in june and late august to keep him from breaking down. I don't know if or what would work but if he was dealing his best stuff going into the playoffs he would be a difference maker. Yes, I know, that is a very big IF.
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