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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 5, 2015 20:07:50 GMT -5
I was playing OOTP the other day and saw one of those baseball quotes about how the 2003 or 05? Red Sox didn't play their first extra inning game until the 93rd (trying to remember) game of the season. You know, the other thing you can do is look at the stats. I imagine Wright would be just as good in extra innings as any other pitcher who has similar stats. I'd like to see what stat that would reassure you that Wright is just another guy in extra innings. The fact is I'm right about what I said about the walks, the stolen bases (even average runners steal bases on knuckle balls), past balls, and homeruns.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 5, 2015 20:12:21 GMT -5
Do I have to remind anyone of another extra inning loss with Wakefield on the mound in a certain playoff game too to remind everyone why knuckle ball pitchers are terrible options for the bullpen? *cough game 7 2003 alcs* How about Game 5 2004 ALCS? That one turned out alright. It was hairy but it worked out. And keep in mind Wakefield saved the staff in Game 3 with his ability to pitch multiple inning of unglamorous mop-up. There's value in that. I remember that game clearly. Another example of what I'm talking about. Varietek (yet another good catcher who couldn't catch the knuckle ball) gave up 2-4 past balls once Wakefield came in to the game. I lost 2 years of my life because of that game.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 5, 2015 20:15:07 GMT -5
And you think sending Miley to AAA makes sense? Trading him I can see. He's not a AAA pitcher. That's not realistic. Here's the 5th and 6th most IP as a starting pitcher for AL teams in 2015: Angels 132.0, 105.2 Astros 73.1, 66.0 Athletics 96.2, 75.1 Blue Jays 74.1, 66.0 Indians 91.1, 65.2 Mariners 107.2, 90.0 Orioles 100.1, 55.2 Rangers 83.2, 78.2 Rays 69.0, 66.2 Red Sox 113.1, 63.0 Royals 99.0, 81.1 Tigers 81.2, 59.0 Twins 108.0, 83.1 White Sox 133.0, 35.0 Yankees 96.0, 94.0 Point being, there's lots of opportunity for the #6 SP on your depth chart to get a lot of innings at the MLB level. Starting Miley at AAA doesn't mean that he's a "AAA pitcher". It means that he's a "pitcher with options remaining". Yes, most baseball managers suck. That doesn't mean it's impossible to find one willing to implement new strategies.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 5, 2015 20:18:34 GMT -5
Anything but a knuckle ball. The Sox can find a long man that doesn't come with the fear of past balls, easy stolen bases, walks, and homeruns in extra innings. That's the problem anytime you throw a knuckle ball in extra innings and why there terrible options for bullpens. I didn't just name one example, I named two. There have been probably plenty of games I'm forgetting in extra innings too when Wakefield was giving up past balls with runners on third to end the game. And you think that Wright would be in just about every inning game? The majority of his games would be as long man in low leverage situations to try to keep the game close. And he'd be pitted most likely against the #7 guy of the other team's staff if the game goes 15 as you're so worried about. I'll take my chances with Wright in that situation. And he can spot start if necessary and stay in the rotation for extended periods of time if need be without being terrible. If the game is going 10 or 11 or even 12 innings it's likely the Sox are still matching up before going to Wright, so I'm not so sure what you're so deeply concerned about. Unless the starter goes 5 innings and the game lasts 10+ innings. That's what the long man is for, to be the last guy who can be the last option in extra innings. I'd rather have a long man who would lose a game giving up the risk of a hit than a past ball. The chances go up a ton higher if there is a runner on third for the other team to score with a knuckle ball pitcher, than any other pitcher in baseball. I HATE seeing runners on third with a knuckle ball. Heart attack city.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 5, 2015 20:21:10 GMT -5
You know, dirtywater43, I agree completely. Past balls are the worst. Give me future balls anyday.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2015 20:27:17 GMT -5
I am wondering what the people here think of E. Rodriguez. He just had a pretty good year for a 22 year old, IMO. It seems to me he doesn't garner much attention here, nor does there seem to be much enthusiasm about his future. As I'm sure you all know if you back out a few very bad outings he was dominant. How often does a 22 yr old rookie pitch much better than he did? I am pretty excited about his future, am I alone. He's highly regarded by just about everyone on this board, with many comfortably penciling him as the #3 guy in the rotation. Perhaps it's that confidence people currently have in him over, say, a guy like Owens, that makes him not talked about as much lately. I just looked at his season pitch/fx data, and I'm more psyched about him than ever. For the first 15 starts, he was a 3-pitch pitcher: 4-seamer, change, slider. He then introduced a sinker or two-seamer with very good movement, quite distinct from his 4-seamer and very much like his change. He threw it 17.5% of the time in his next five starts. He actually gave up a worse slash line, but it was totally BABIP driven, and his ERA was much better, 2.45 versus 4.48. Now, some of the latter was inflated by tipping his pitches, but having an extra pitch has to help, especially in the long run. A sinker has the same spin axis as a changeup; they're significantly harder to tell apart than a 4-seamer and change. Mixing in more sinkers, especially at the right moments, can only make him better. But wait, there's more. In his last start he threw no sinkers, but he threw 15 cutters. Totally new pitch. It has Lester's 4-mph velo difference (which means he was throwing it at 91 in this game) and 5 1/2" less armside run, but only 2" relative drop instead of Lester's 5". But that's the same drop as his sinker. Except it goes the other way relative to his bread-and-butter 4-seamer. He's never tried to mix all five pitches in a game. It seems to me that they didn't want to overburden him with too much to do and master. But of course, the goal has got to be to eventually use all five as mutually reinforcing weapons. But wait, I'm still not done. Even the 3-pitch ERod was pretty much stupid good for a guy who doesn't throw a curve and in fact has no pitch that breaks to his glove side (his slider breaks straight down). They have to be thinking about having him add a curve at some point. He could spend a year throwing it on the side before trying it in games, and all he has to do is get it near MLB average, say 40 or 45, so he can flash it a handful of times in a game, and he'll be that much tougher. If he can eventually develop a good curve -- and I wouldn't put it past him given how well he spins all of his other pitches -- he'll be a CY contender.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 5, 2015 20:34:18 GMT -5
You know, dirtywater43, I agree completely. Past balls are the worst. Give me future balls anyday. I thought I spelt it correctly? Isn't it spelt past balls because they go PAST the catcher? Or is it pass balls? I'll just use the PB abbreviation. I didn't know how many people would get it if I used the abbreviation. I always mix that stat up, with regards to pass or past. Virtually the same word, just used differently. Really the English language is the one to blame for this one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2015 20:36:16 GMT -5
I have relentlessly championed the idea of trading Miley to make room in the rotation for Kelly or Wright, but I have to agree that it makes much more sense to wait until ST to do this.
If one of your five starters gets hurt in ST, you don't make the trade.
If you still have the surplus, the trade market will be better. Pitchers will get hurt in ST; the total supply of guys as good as Miley will be smaller, and the demand will be higher. A contending team that has just lost a reliable starter to a major injury and doesn't have a lot of depth will likely pay a premium for Miley. If there are two teams that fit that description, you're golden.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 5, 2015 20:55:23 GMT -5
I thought I spelt it correctly? Isn't it spelt past balls because they go PAST the catcher? Or is it pass balls? I'll just use the PB abbreviation. I didn't know how many people would get it if I used the abbreviation. I always mix that stat up, with regards to pass or past. Virtually the same word, just used differently. Really the English language is the one to blame for this one. Well hey, English is my second language and I'm not obsessed with PBs so I'll defer to your expertise on that one. Consider, though, that someone who was obsessed with SB rather than PB could make the analogous argument, "I would never trust Jon Lester to pitch for my team - if anyone ever got to first base against him he would automatically be at second or third a couple of pitches later."
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 5, 2015 21:23:42 GMT -5
I thought I spelt it correctly? Isn't it spelt past balls because they go PAST the catcher? Or is it pass balls? I'll just use the PB abbreviation. I didn't know how many people would get it if I used the abbreviation. I always mix that stat up, with regards to pass or past. Virtually the same word, just used differently. Really the English language is the one to blame for this one. Well hey, English is my second language and I'm not obsessed with PBs so I'll defer to your expertise on that one. Consider, though, that someone who was obsessed with SB rather than PB could make the analogous argument, "I would never trust Jon Lester to pitch for my team - if anyone ever got to first base against him he would automatically be at second or third a couple of pitches later."[/b] Good comp. To dirtywater. I get not liking the pitch, but have you read the stats mgoetze and eric have posted on the pitches effect when used in the first game of a series?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 5, 2015 21:25:28 GMT -5
Passed Balls
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 5, 2015 21:48:37 GMT -5
This is correct, but when you think about it, it's a very weird expression. What's the literal meaning? How did that come to be the term? A passed ball should be a ball that someone passes, not a ball that someone allows to pass or go past. Why isn't it missed ball?
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 5, 2015 21:55:23 GMT -5
This is correct, but when you think about it, it's a very weird expression. What's the literal meaning? How did that come to be the term? A passed ball should be a ball that someone passes, not a ball that someone allows to pass or go past. Why isn't it missed ball? Presumably, because the catcher passed up the opportunity to catch the ball.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2015 22:11:12 GMT -5
And you think sending Miley to AAA makes sense? Trading him I can see. He's not a AAA pitcher. That's not realistic. Here's the 5th and 6th most IP as a starting pitcher for AL teams in 2015: Angels 132.0, 105.2 Astros 73.1, 66.0 Athletics 96.2, 75.1 Blue Jays 74.1, 66.0 Indians 91.1, 65.2 Mariners 107.2, 90.0 Orioles 100.1, 55.2 Rangers 83.2, 78.2 Rays 69.0, 66.2 Red Sox 113.1, 63.0 Royals 99.0, 81.1 Tigers 81.2, 59.0 Twins 108.0, 83.1 White Sox 133.0, 35.0 Yankees 96.0, 94.0 Point being, there's lots of opportunity for the #6 SP on your depth chart to get a lot of innings at the MLB level. Starting Miley at AAA doesn't mean that he's a "AAA pitcher". It means that he's a "pitcher with options remaining". Yes, most baseball managers suck. That doesn't mean it's impossible to find one willing to implement new strategies. I get that Miley isn't a AAA pitcher and you're talking about stashing him in AAA. That's great in a vacuum. Same thing with trying the piggyback starter thing you talk about. But the reality is that no manager is going to tick his pitchers off doing that. So you have a starter who is pitching lights out and you're going to take him out to piggyback some other pitcher in the 5th inning or whatever you're talking about? You think his pitchers won't be grumbling? Think he won't be getting second guessed? You're not going to find any manager that would do that with any consistency. This isn't rotisserie baseball. It's like the debate we've had over and over again about using your best reliever to get the most key out of the game, even if it's the frigging 6th inning and pretending that you don't need a crystal ball to know if a bigger more threatening situation might present itself innings later. It's great in theory, but hell in practice. Pitchers are creatures of habit. If they have zero clue when they're going to pitch, that can cause more crap for managers to deal with. Sure it's easy from the keyboard to say too freaking bad, but it's another thing to actually have to deal with these guys and then the media on top of it. So expecting one willing to do what you propose is highly unlikely. I'd say Joe Maddon is about as unconventional as it gets and I doubt he'd even do this stuff.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2015 22:35:47 GMT -5
I was playing OOTP the other day and saw one of those baseball quotes about how the 2003 or 05? Red Sox didn't play their first extra inning game until the 93rd (trying to remember) game of the season. You know, the other thing you can do is look at the stats. I imagine Wright would be just as good in extra innings as any other pitcher who has similar stats. I'd like to see what stat that would reassure you that Wright is just another guy in extra innings. The fact is I'm right about what I said about the walks, the stolen bases (even average runners steal bases on knuckle balls), past balls, and homeruns. Over his brief MLB career (107 IP), Steven Wright has averaged 1.93 wild pitches plus passed balls per nine innings. The league-average is 0.43 wild pitches plus passed balls per nine innings. Yes, he has a propensity for moving baserunners up, but the difference is one and a half extra bases per nine innings. That's something that should be factored in, but it doesn't transform an otherwise decent enough pitcher into an unplayable one. Wright gives up 13.3 bases per nine innings; add in the extra 1.5, and that's 14.8 bases per nine. That's not much worse than the league-average (13.9 bases per nine). The other things you point to (walks, stolen bases, and home runs) aren't much of a factor. Wright's SB rate (0.42 SB/9) is actually lower than the league-average (0.52 SB/9), though that's largely because he's been used in a lot of low-leverage situations and baserunners are less likely to steal in those situation. Still, as the Lester example highlights, you can live with a SB-prone pitcher if he's good enough otherwise. Similarly, Wright's walk (8.8%) and home run (1.18 HR/9) rates aren't that much worse than the league averages (7.7% and 1.02 HR/9, respectively).
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 5, 2015 22:53:08 GMT -5
Similarly, Wright's walk (8.8%) and home run (1.18 HR/9) rates aren't that much worse than the league averages (7.7% and 1.02 HR/9, respectively). For comparison, R.A. Dickey's career numbers (1714.1 IP): 7.4% BB and 1.10 HR/9. Pretty close to those league averages.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2015 23:01:36 GMT -5
Similarly, Wright's walk (8.8%) and home run (1.18 HR/9) rates aren't that much worse than the league averages (7.7% and 1.02 HR/9, respectively). For comparison, R.A. Dickey's career numbers (1714.1 IP): 7.4% BB and 1.10 HR/9. Pretty close to those league averages. I say this as someone who generally thinks Wright as a long man is a good idea... but those Dickey numbers are a little misleading because they include a pretty long stretch before he was any good. Since 2010 he has a 6.7% BB rate, 1.0 HR/9, and a 112 ERA+. From 2001 to 2009 (roughly 1/4 of his career, innings-wise) he had an 8.9% BB rate, 1.4 HR/9 and an 87 ERA+.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 5, 2015 23:54:10 GMT -5
Dickey's last three years, in the AL East, are pretty much average across the boards and even if he was the super pitcher the BJ's hoped for when they traded for him, it doesn't have any bearing on Wright. Virtually every other knuckleball pitcher this millennium has failed miserably.
Most Steven Wright arguments are selective to the max. He has yet to show anything either way that he'd have any kind of success. It's all pretty much selective points being made to make a case for a subjective debate.
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Post by sammo420 on Dec 6, 2015 0:38:13 GMT -5
This is correct, but when you think about it, it's a very weird expression. What's the literal meaning? How did that come to be the term? A passed ball should be a ball that someone passes, not a ball that someone allows to pass or go past. Why isn't it missed ball? The other way actually makes more sense. How did the ball get "past" him?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 6, 2015 2:46:27 GMT -5
Dickey's last three years, in the AL East, are pretty much average across the boards and even if he was the super pitcher the BJ's hoped for when they traded for him, it doesn't have any bearing on Wright. Virtually every other knuckleball pitcher this millennium has failed miserably. Most Steven Wright arguments are selective to the max. He has yet to show anything either way that he'd have any kind of success. It's all pretty much selective points being made to make a case for a subjective debate. You keep on saying this and it's just plain not true. He's thrown 107 innings in the big leagues and without cherry picking out anything, even leaving in his emergency start in April 2013 before he was throwing the knuckler well in the minors, he's been just 2 runs below average, which does not extrapolate out to even half a win over a full season. Since his premature major league debut he's thrown 103.1 IP and has been 1 or 2 runs better than average. And yes, that's runs, not earned runs. I would say that throwing 103 innings a bit better than average while being jerked in and out of the rotation and occasionally having to go a week without pitching shows that he'd have some "kind of success." Like, being a bit better than average. At a minimum. End of story. Sky is blue, world is more or less round, Steven Wright has 85% as many pro innings as Eduardo Rodriguez, and he's been roughly league average. Which would make him a borderline 3rd / 4th starter. The cherry-picking arguments are not to justify that he'd be any good at all; they're arguments that he'd be a solid #3 and clearly better than Miley. I frankly find this attitude towards Wright to be almost hallucinatory in its weirdness. In the four starts he had on regular rest in July and August, he averaged 6 IP a start, held opponents to .217 / .301 / .348, and had a 2.59 ERA. He was being talked about a lot, as you'd expect from a stretch of knuckleball pitching that was as good and impressive (that's important; he threw strikes and he had terrific movement) as anything we saw from Wakefield after his amazing first season. He absolutely seemed to be on his way to becoming one of the major positive stories in an otherwise dismal season, arguably the 4th best thing in terms of changing the long-term outlook to the team, after Xander, JBJ, and ERod (Mookie just did what we hoped and expected). Then he got concussed. I could understand if the average reaction was to temper the enthusiasm we all had (or should have had) at that point, because of the smallness of the sample (even though he had an even better slash line, .225 / .250 / .404, in his 4 starts in May and June). But right now, for a lot of people, it's like that never happened at all.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 6, 2015 3:00:01 GMT -5
Yeah guys, DON'T CHERRY PICK stats. Btw, if you look at Steven Wright's stats, particularly 4 starts only during the months of July and August, on odd-numbered days, when the temperature was over 75 degrees but under 93 degrees, when he was on normal rest, and when he had a full night's sleep, and his mother tucked him in the night before, he was pretty good.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2015 3:16:36 GMT -5
When I brought up fWAR stats your argument was that fWAR is not favorable to knuckleballers. To sum up your post, in a 4 game sample when Wright had his best run, he was average. WOW, that's impressive.
Wade Miley who is more than 2 years younger than Steven Wright (not sure what that is in dog years) has averaged .97 bWAR/100 innings over his career. Steven Wright has averaged .65. I seriously don't understand the Miley dumping here. Nobody expected him to be an ace.
Yes, we are cherry picking here. We'll see but I seriously doubt that Steven Wright will be in the Sox rotation for anything more than an emergency start. If he is, something has gone very wrong again.
ADD: You also fail to point out that on the fifth start on regular rest, the wheels fell off the wagon.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2015 4:00:10 GMT -5
You could actually make the case that if we had 5 Wade Mileys last year, we would have made the playoffs. That would be 965 innings and 13 fWAR plus a hell of a lot of pressure taken off our beleaguered bullpen.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 7:45:31 GMT -5
Well hey, English is my second language and I'm not obsessed with PBs so I'll defer to your expertise on that one. Consider, though, that someone who was obsessed with SB rather than PB could make the analogous argument, "I would never trust Jon Lester to pitch for my team - if anyone ever got to first base against him he would automatically be at second or third a couple of pitches later."[/b] Good comp. To dirtywater. I get not liking the pitch, but have you read the stats mgoetze and eric have posted on the pitches effect when used in the first game of a series?[/quote] I do like the knuckle ball actually. I'm just making a case that if they're not starting, then they have no use for me out of the bullpen.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 6, 2015 7:47:38 GMT -5
[...] The cherry-picking arguments are not to justify that he'd be any good at all; they're arguments that he'd be a solid #3 and clearly better than Miley. [...] It's good to have it officially down in writing that the idea that Wright would be "clearly better than Miley" is based on cherry-picking.
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