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Post by corysettoon on Dec 6, 2015 8:05:40 GMT -5
Couldn't we just trade Miley? The Marlins are rumored to be interested.
I wonder if a three teamer might work:
BOS - Carrasco and Zach McAllister MIA- Miley, and B level prospect CLE- Ozuna, Brian Johnson, and maybe one of Travis or Shaw
We lose a lot, but would sure up both the rotation and the bullpen.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2015 9:22:07 GMT -5
The cherry-picking arguments are not to justify that he'd be any good at all; they're arguments that he'd be a solid #3 and clearly better than Miley. I frankly find this attitude towards Wright to be almost hallucinatory in its weirdness. In the four starts he had on regular rest in July and August, he averaged 6 IP a start, held opponents to .217 / .301 / .348, and had a 2.59 ERA. He was being talked about a lot, as you'd expect from a stretch of knuckleball pitching that was as good and impressive (that's important; he threw strikes and he had terrific movement) as anything we saw from Wakefield after his amazing first season. He absolutely seemed to be on his way to becoming one of the major positive stories in an otherwise dismal season, arguably the 4th best thing in terms of changing the long-term outlook to the team, after Xander, JBJ, and ERod (Mookie just did what we hoped and expected). Then he got concussed. From May 2 to May 24, Miley had a 2.60 ERA and held opponents to .238/.275/.377. And that was FIVE whole starts so it's super meaningful.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2015 10:30:42 GMT -5
Miley to AAA is not realistic and not just because we don't have a progressive manager. It's just bad business for a variety of reasons. The potential repercussions of something like that would be immense.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2015 10:38:37 GMT -5
Dirtywater, I think the Wright lovers here are way overboard with their love of him, but you're reasons are straight from crazy town. Long relievers typically, aren't very good so they are more prone to all the things you are worried about. Maybe the knuckleballer is more predisposed to a PB than the crappy conventional long reliever, but when he's a better pitcher, he's also more apt to pitch better and have better results. I wouldn't be making decisions on the long relief guy in the event you have a 15+ inning game or two. Id be focusing on who can take the ball for Multiple innings to save the staff and who can take the ball more often to save the staff. The long reliever is less about winning the game he's in and more about keeping the staff fresh so one game doesn't end up affecting multiple games. In that sense the knuckleballer is almost ideal.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 11:15:20 GMT -5
Dirtywater, I think the Wright lovers here are way overboard with their love of him, but you're reasons are straight from crazy town. Long relievers typically, aren't very good so they are more prone to all the things you are worried about. Maybe the knuckleballer is more predisposed to a PB than the crappy conventional long reliever, but when he's a better pitcher, he's also more apt to pitch better and have better results. I wouldn't be making decisions on the long relief guy in the event you have a 15+ inning game or two. Id be focusing on who can take the ball for Multiple innings to save the staff and who can take the ball more often to save the staff. The long reliever is less about winning the game he's in and more about keeping the staff fresh so one game doesn't end up affecting multiple games. In that sense the knuckleballer is almost ideal. Fair enough. To be honest, it doesn't really matter what any of us view the knuckle ball. It has everything to do with how Dave views the knuckle ball who wasn't around to see Wright very much in his brief time here. I agree that he does bring value in 9 inning games but the extra inning game will come, and I promise 99% of Sox fans will cringe the second Wright is in the game in extras. It isn't a pretty sight. Kind of like watching Pablo Sandoval eat during thanksgiving.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2015 11:28:22 GMT -5
I was playing OOTP the other day and saw one of those baseball quotes about how the 2003 or 05? Red Sox didn't play their first extra inning game until the 93rd (trying to remember) game of the season. You know, the other thing you can do is look at the stats. I imagine Wright would be just as good in extra innings as any other pitcher who has similar stats. I'd like to see what stat that would reassure you that Wright is just another guy in extra innings. The fact is I'm right about what I said about the walks, the stolen bases (even average runners steal bases on knuckle balls), past balls, and homeruns. So your plan is to improve our 19 inning game specialist pitchers. OK.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2015 11:28:27 GMT -5
Dirtywater, I think the Wright lovers here are way overboard with their love of him, but you're reasons are straight from crazy town. Long relievers typically, aren't very good so they are more prone to all the things you are worried about. Maybe the knuckleballer is more predisposed to a PB than the crappy conventional long reliever, but when he's a better pitcher, he's also more apt to pitch better and have better results. I wouldn't be making decisions on the long relief guy in the event you have a 15+ inning game or two. Id be focusing on who can take the ball for Multiple innings to save the staff and who can take the ball more often to save the staff. The long reliever is less about winning the game he's in and more about keeping the staff fresh so one game doesn't end up affecting multiple games. In that sense the knuckleballer is almost ideal. Fair enough. To be honest, it doesn't really matter what any of us view the knuckle ball. It has everything to do with how Dave views the knuckle ball who wasn't around to see Wright very much in his brief time here. I agree that he does bring value in 9 inning games but the extra inning game will come, and I promise 99% of Sox fans will cringe the second Wright is in the game in extras. It isn't a pretty sight. Kind of like watching Pablo Sandoval eat during thanksgiving. You act like there will be about 50 extra inning games. Fact of the matter is there are about 15 - 20 per year, and most of them are decided within 10 or 11 innings meaning that the long man of your staff isn't likely in the game at that point. Once you start hitting the 12th inning or so, yeah, you'll see the long man. And yeah, Wright can be cringeworthy in those situations. But what you keep discounting is that the other team will most likely have their worst pitcher as their only available option and most likely THAT guy will be very cringeworthy, knuckleball or not. I'll take the 40 appearances of spot duty/garbage time mop up and not worry about the half dozen occasions that Wright comes in the during the 12th inning. Odds are he might actually win half of those if not more. Again the 19 inning game is a great example. He was cringeworthy but ultimately got the job done because the pitchers that the Yanks had at that point in the game were cringeworthy, too if you were a Yankees fan.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 6, 2015 11:28:32 GMT -5
Couldn't we just trade Miley? The Marlins are rumored to be interested. I wonder if a three teamer might work: BOS - Carrasco and Zach McAllister MIA- Miley, and B level prospect CLE- Ozuna, Brian Johnson, and maybe one of Travis or Shaw We lose a lot, but would sure up both the rotation and the bullpen. . Or DD could trade Miley and keep Ozuna, trading Bradley to CLE for Carrasco. O is a good defender with a lifetime .265 BA and power. He has almost 1400 PA in three ML seasons. Have add something to the Bradley deal to satisfy the Indians.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2015 11:30:19 GMT -5
Couldn't we just trade Miley? The Marlins are rumored to be interested. I wonder if a three teamer might work: BOS - Carrasco and Zach McAllister MIA- Miley, and B level prospect CLE- Ozuna, Brian Johnson, and maybe one of Travis or Shaw We lose a lot, but would sure up both the rotation and the bullpen. What rumors are there that the Marlins are interested in Miley?
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 6, 2015 11:52:25 GMT -5
Couldn't we just trade Miley? The Marlins are rumored to be interested. I wonder if a three teamer might work: BOS - Carrasco and Zach McAllister MIA- Miley, and B level prospect CLE- Ozuna, Brian Johnson, and maybe one of Travis or Shaw We lose a lot, but would sure up both the rotation and the bullpen. What rumors are there that the Marlins are interested in Miley? Joe Frisaro of MLB.com made note yesterday that he and Shields could be targets of the Marlins.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 12:10:44 GMT -5
I'd like to see what stat that would reassure you that Wright is just another guy in extra innings. The fact is I'm right about what I said about the walks, the stolen bases (even average runners steal bases on knuckle balls), past balls, and homeruns. So your plan is to improve our 19 inning game specialist pitchers. OK. So your plan is to never pitch in extra innings? Good luck with that.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 12:24:07 GMT -5
Fair enough. To be honest, it doesn't really matter what any of us view the knuckle ball. It has everything to do with how Dave views the knuckle ball who wasn't around to see Wright very much in his brief time here. I agree that he does bring value in 9 inning games but the extra inning game will come, and I promise 99% of Sox fans will cringe the second Wright is in the game in extras. It isn't a pretty sight. Kind of like watching Pablo Sandoval eat during thanksgiving. You act like there will be about 50 extra inning games. Fact of the matter is there are about 15 - 20 per year, and most of them are decided within 10 or 11 innings meaning that the long man of your staff isn't likely in the game at that point. Once you start hitting the 12th inning or so, yeah, you'll see the long man. And yeah, Wright can be cringeworthy in those situations. But what you keep discounting is that the other team will most likely have their worst pitcher as their only available option and most likely THAT guy will be very cringeworthy, knuckleball or not. I'll take the 40 appearances of spot duty/garbage time mop up and not worry about the half dozen occasions that Wright comes in the during the 12th inning. Odds are he might actually win half of those if not more. Again the 19 inning game is a great example. He was cringeworthy but ultimately got the job done because the pitchers that the Yanks had at that point in the game were cringeworthy, too if you were a Yankees fan. So if 75% of the 15-20 games you mention ends in the 11th inning or sooner, your going to risk 3-6 games in the hands of Stephen Wright from the 11/12 th inning on. You realize those games could be the difference between a division and a wildcard and you want to put that in the hands of Wright in extra innings? Good luck with that too. I love how you also agree with me that it's cringeworthy too.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 12:25:43 GMT -5
Couldn't we just trade Miley? The Marlins are rumored to be interested. I wonder if a three teamer might work: BOS - Carrasco and Zach McAllister MIA- Miley, and B level prospect CLE- Ozuna, Brian Johnson, and maybe one of Travis or Shaw We lose a lot, but would sure up both the rotation and the bullpen. What rumors are there that the Marlins are interested in Miley? The Marlins almost traded for him before the Sox did last year. They have had Miley on their wishlist for a longtime now. No surprise if they ended up with Miley.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2015 12:27:00 GMT -5
Miley to AAA is not realistic and not just because we don't have a progressive manager. It's just bad business for a variety of reasons. The potential repercussions of something like that would be immense. Chief among those reasons is that Miley is better than anyone who would replace him as a fifth starter. People are really over-thinking this.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 12:43:42 GMT -5
Miley to AAA is not realistic and not just because we don't have a progressive manager. It's just bad business for a variety of reasons. The potential repercussions of something like that would be immense. Chief among those reasons is that Miley is better than anyone who would replace him as a fifth starter. People are really over-thinking this. I think Owens or Johnson could be just as good or even better than Miley for 1/10 of the cost.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Dec 6, 2015 12:54:56 GMT -5
The cherry-picking arguments are not to justify that he'd be any good at all; they're arguments that he'd be a solid #3 and clearly better than Miley. I frankly find this attitude towards Wright to be almost hallucinatory in its weirdness. In the four starts he had on regular rest in July and August, he averaged 6 IP a start, held opponents to .217 / .301 / .348, and had a 2.59 ERA. He was being talked about a lot, as you'd expect from a stretch of knuckleball pitching that was as good and impressive (that's important; he threw strikes and he had terrific movement) as anything we saw from Wakefield after his amazing first season. He absolutely seemed to be on his way to becoming one of the major positive stories in an otherwise dismal season, arguably the 4th best thing in terms of changing the long-term outlook to the team, after Xander, JBJ, and ERod (Mookie just did what we hoped and expected). Then he got concussed. From May 2 to May 24, Miley had a 2.60 ERA and held opponents to .238/.275/.377. And that was FIVE whole starts so it's super meaningful. I agree. Anyone who doesn't think Miley is likely to have a 2.60 ERA in '16, is hallucinatory, insane, and stupid.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2015 12:58:51 GMT -5
Chief among those reasons is that Miley is better than anyone who would replace him as a fifth starter. People are really over-thinking this. I think Owens or Johnson could be just as good or even better than Miley for 1/10 of the cost. Could they? Sure. Are they likely to? No.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2015 13:01:10 GMT -5
You act like there will be about 50 extra inning games. Fact of the matter is there are about 15 - 20 per year, and most of them are decided within 10 or 11 innings meaning that the long man of your staff isn't likely in the game at that point. Once you start hitting the 12th inning or so, yeah, you'll see the long man. And yeah, Wright can be cringeworthy in those situations. But what you keep discounting is that the other team will most likely have their worst pitcher as their only available option and most likely THAT guy will be very cringeworthy, knuckleball or not. I'll take the 40 appearances of spot duty/garbage time mop up and not worry about the half dozen occasions that Wright comes in the during the 12th inning. Odds are he might actually win half of those if not more. Again the 19 inning game is a great example. He was cringeworthy but ultimately got the job done because the pitchers that the Yanks had at that point in the game were cringeworthy, too if you were a Yankees fan. So if 75% of the 15-20 games you mention ends in the 11th inning or sooner, your going to risk 3-6 games in the hands of Stephen Wright from the 11/12 th inning on. You realize those games could be the difference between a division and a wildcard and you want to put that in the hands of Wright in extra innings? Good luck with that too. I love how you also agree with me that it's cringeworthy too. The difference between Steven Wright and [insert generic long-reliever] is not going to be the difference in every one of those three to six games. Remember, we're talking about an extra wild pitch/passed ball every six innings here.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2015 13:03:17 GMT -5
Chief among those reasons is that Miley is better than anyone who would replace him as a fifth starter. People are really over-thinking this. I think Owens or Johnson could be just as good or even better than Miley for 1/10 of the cost. Since 2012, only ten starters have started more games than Miley. You don't kick a guy like that out of the rotation for guys who MIGHT be better but are certainly less reliable. Stash Owens and Johnson in AAA, they'll get their chances.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2015 13:10:30 GMT -5
So if 75% of the 15-20 games you mention ends in the 11th inning or sooner, your going to risk 3-6 games in the hands of Stephen Wright from the 11/12 th inning on. You realize those games could be the difference between a division and a wildcard and you want to put that in the hands of Wright in extra innings? Good luck with that too. I love how you also agree with me that it's cringeworthy too. The difference between Steven Wright and [insert generic long-reliever] is not going to be the difference in every one of those three to six games. Remember, we're talking about an extra wild pitch/passed ball every six innings here. Who was the reliever who came into a bases-loaded situation in extra innings and proceeded to blow the game on four straight balls? Worrying that Stephan Wright is going to somehow be deficient compared to whatever other highly deficient pitcher would otherwise be the last man out of the bullpen is probably a waste of time.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 13:23:52 GMT -5
So if 75% of the 15-20 games you mention ends in the 11th inning or sooner, your going to risk 3-6 games in the hands of Stephen Wright from the 11/12 th inning on. You realize those games could be the difference between a division and a wildcard and you want to put that in the hands of Wright in extra innings? Good luck with that too. I love how you also agree with me that it's cringeworthy too. The difference between Steven Wright and [insert generic long-reliever] is not going to be the difference in every one of those three to six games. Remember, we're talking about an extra wild pitch/passed ball every six innings here. A knuckle ball isn't exactly a pitch that stays with consistent to stats either. One year it may be an extra wild pitch/passed balls every 6 innings and the next year it could be a extra wild pitch/passed ball every 2-3 innings. You have to remember the only thing about the knuckle ball is that it's always inconsistent.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 13:27:06 GMT -5
I think Owens or Johnson could be just as good or even better than Miley for 1/10 of the cost. Could they? Sure. Are they likely to? No. Yet Dave has already mentioned from trading from the depth the Sox have in rotation. Who else do you think he's talking about? Miley is likely the odd man out no matter how we argue it. It's either that or Joe Kelly. One of them is going. Dave has been about as transparent as any top executive I have ever seen this off-season.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2015 13:31:18 GMT -5
Could they? Sure. Are they likely to? No. Yet Dave has already mentioned from trading from the depth the Sox have in rotation. Who else do you think he's talking about? Miley is likely the odd man out no matter how we argue it. It's either that or Joe Kelly. One of them is going. Dave has been about as transparent as any top executive I have ever seen this off-season. Trading Kelly would be a much better idea than trading Miley, and I've already advocated for trading Owens. Again, any time you feel like a team just HAS to trade a consistent rotation workhorse you're probably overthinking things.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 13:39:37 GMT -5
Yet Dave has already mentioned from trading from the depth the Sox have in rotation. Who else do you think he's talking about? Miley is likely the odd man out no matter how we argue it. It's either that or Joe Kelly. One of them is going. Dave has been about as transparent as any top executive I have ever seen this off-season. Trading Kelly would be a much better idea than trading Miley, and I've already advocated for trading Owens. Again, any time you feel like a team just HAS to trade a consistent rotation workhorse you're probably overthinking things. There's no reason to trade Owens as he serves as options and he's as useful as he comes when it comes to quality depth. I think that Dave is "over thinking" things things from where your thinking but don't be surprised when it happens. He serves as the most valuable back end chip that can be used in trades. Kelly can't stay healthy, porcello is expensive, Buchholz serves as the one of the few top of the rotation pieces this team has and Rodriguez is a fixture piece of this rotation for years to come.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2015 13:41:47 GMT -5
So your plan is to improve our 19 inning game specialist pitchers. OK. So your plan is to never pitch in extra innings? Good luck with that. I don't know exactly what you're looking for, but I imagine it doesn't exist. In 2016, you will not find a long reliever better than Wright who will pitch enough innings to keep stretched out.
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