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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2015 13:44:56 GMT -5
The difference between Steven Wright and [insert generic long-reliever] is not going to be the difference in every one of those three to six games. Remember, we're talking about an extra wild pitch/passed ball every six innings here. A knuckle ball isn't exactly a pitch that stays with consistent to stats either. One year it may be an extra wild pitch/passed balls every 6 innings and the next year it could be a extra wild pitch/passed ball every 2-3 innings. You have to remember the only thing about the knuckle ball is that it's always inconsistent. Sure, but that doesn't change the conclusion. At these levels of magnitude (i.e., significantly less than once an inning), a pitcher's propensity for wild pitches/passed balls just don't matter that much. It doesn't transform an otherwise fine pitcher into one that becomes unusable in extra innings.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2015 13:47:09 GMT -5
You act like there will be about 50 extra inning games. Fact of the matter is there are about 15 - 20 per year, and most of them are decided within 10 or 11 innings meaning that the long man of your staff isn't likely in the game at that point. Once you start hitting the 12th inning or so, yeah, you'll see the long man. And yeah, Wright can be cringeworthy in those situations. But what you keep discounting is that the other team will most likely have their worst pitcher as their only available option and most likely THAT guy will be very cringeworthy, knuckleball or not. I'll take the 40 appearances of spot duty/garbage time mop up and not worry about the half dozen occasions that Wright comes in the during the 12th inning. Odds are he might actually win half of those if not more. Again the 19 inning game is a great example. He was cringeworthy but ultimately got the job done because the pitchers that the Yanks had at that point in the game were cringeworthy, too if you were a Yankees fan. So if 75% of the 15-20 games you mention ends in the 11th inning or sooner, your going to risk 3-6 games in the hands of Stephen Wright from the 11/12 th inning on. You realize those games could be the difference between a division and a wildcard and you want to put that in the hands of Wright in extra innings? Good luck with that too. I love how you also agree with me that it's cringeworthy too. It's amazing you still can't figure out what I'm saying. Yeah, watching Wright isn't too comfortable in that situation. No kidding. What you're absolutely missing is that the other guy pitching against the Sox is likely to be MORE cringeworthy. What part of that do you refuse to understand or acknowledge? Wright should be every bit as good or better than the other team's mopup/long man, etc.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 13:49:16 GMT -5
So your plan is to never pitch in extra innings? Good luck with that. I don't know exactly what you're looking for, but I imagine it doesn't exist. In 2016, you will not find a long reliever better than Wright who will pitch enough innings to keep stretched out. Let's see if Dave views things the same way especially since he's hasn't seen much of Wright really. If I had to guess if I am right in thinking he's getting dfad over what 70% of people of here who have been following Wright for the past 3+ years he's been in the organization, I would take Dave dfaing him. We will see who's right in the end, baring there's no crazy amount of injuries out of spring training of course. I would guess Dave would rather have Kelly as a long man/bullpen option for the team over Wright all day.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 6, 2015 13:50:57 GMT -5
“@jeffpassan: From the not-a-surprise department: Multiple GMs say because of the price of free agents, they expect trade action in Nashville to be big.”
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 13:52:25 GMT -5
So if 75% of the 15-20 games you mention ends in the 11th inning or sooner, your going to risk 3-6 games in the hands of Stephen Wright from the 11/12 th inning on. You realize those games could be the difference between a division and a wildcard and you want to put that in the hands of Wright in extra innings? Good luck with that too. I love how you also agree with me that it's cringeworthy too. It's amazing you still can't figure out what I'm saying. Yeah, watching Wright isn't too comfortable in that situation. No kidding. What you're absolutely missing is that the other guy pitching against the Sox is likely to be MORE cringeworthy. What part of that do you refuse to understand or acknowledge? Wright should be every bit as good or better than the other team's mopup/long man, etc. Depends on who the other long man is for the other team. There are a ton of deep bullpens now.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 13:55:00 GMT -5
A knuckle ball isn't exactly a pitch that stays with consistent to stats either. One year it may be an extra wild pitch/passed balls every 6 innings and the next year it could be a extra wild pitch/passed ball every 2-3 innings. You have to remember the only thing about the knuckle ball is that it's always inconsistent. Sure, but that doesn't change the conclusion. At these levels of magnitude (i.e., significantly less than once an inning), a pitcher's propensity for wild pitches/passed balls just don't matter that much. It doesn't transform an otherwise fine pitcher into one that becomes unusable in extra innings. We will see if the same holds true if Wright comes into the first extra inning game of the year and he gives up the winning run on a wild pitch. I'm guessing the first time that happens, we won't ever be seeing Wright ever again.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2015 13:55:52 GMT -5
It's amazing you still can't figure out what I'm saying. Yeah, watching Wright isn't too comfortable in that situation. No kidding. What you're absolutely missing is that the other guy pitching against the Sox is likely to be MORE cringeworthy. What part of that do you refuse to understand or acknowledge? Wright should be every bit as good or better than the other team's mopup/long man, etc. Depends on who the other long man is for the other team. There are a ton of deep bullpens now. Once you get to the 12th inning of games most of the bullpens' mopup men don't exactly resemble Pedro Martinez in his prime. Most of those deep bullpens go five deep or so and some of those guys are LOOGYs. The last guy on the staff is usually a guy on the AAA shuttle back and forth. The sixth or seventh guy of a bullpen is fringy at best so I'm not sure why you think the Sox would be facing such a shutdown guy. Odds are those guys were used in innings 7 thru 11, and most of those guys aren't multiple inning pitchers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 6, 2015 13:58:16 GMT -5
The cherry-picking arguments are not to justify that he'd be any good at all; they're arguments that he'd be a solid #3 and clearly better than Miley. I frankly find this attitude towards Wright to be almost hallucinatory in its weirdness. In the four starts he had on regular rest in July and August, he averaged 6 IP a start, held opponents to .217 / .301 / .348, and had a 2.59 ERA. He was being talked about a lot, as you'd expect from a stretch of knuckleball pitching that was as good and impressive (that's important; he threw strikes and he had terrific movement) as anything we saw from Wakefield after his amazing first season. He absolutely seemed to be on his way to becoming one of the major positive stories in an otherwise dismal season, arguably the 4th best thing in terms of changing the long-term outlook to the team, after Xander, JBJ, and ERod (Mookie just did what we hoped and expected). Then he got concussed. From May 2 to May 24, Miley had a 2.60 ERA and held opponents to .238/.275/.377. And that was FIVE whole starts so it's super meaningful. You realize that's an argument for Wright and not a counter-argument, right? No. Of course you don't. I already gave the meaningful numbers: the whole career as a starter, which, like Miley's is league average (in fact, they have identical career ERAs of 3.95). It's a small sample, but 100+ innings at league average, at the very least, is evidence that the guy may well be league average. Evidence that the Wright-haters say doesn't exist. I mentioned these four starts as an anecdote, an event that got people interested and excited. Just like they would have gotten interested and excited if they were unfamiliar with Miley at the point where he had the five excellent starts. (The joker in the deck, of course, is that Miley's good streak happened beginning with his 5th start of the year, and Wright's with his 6th start, so their timing is pretty much the same. But Miley had an 8.62 ERA coming into his streak and a 4.49 when it ended, and a 4.46 at year's end, while Wright had a 4.84 coming in and 4.09 when the streak and his season ended.) And in fact four or five starts like that have some meaning because they are commonly put up by league-average pitchers, but are essentially unheard of by guys who fit the Wright-hater description of a guy who has never demonstrated any MLB talent.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 13:59:43 GMT -5
Depends on who the other long man is for the other team. There are a ton of deep bullpens now. Once you get to the 12th inning of games most of the bullpens' mopup men don't exactly resemble Pedro Martinez in his prime. Most of those deep bullpens go five deep or so and some of those guys are LOOGYs. The last guy on the staff is usually a guy on the AAA shuttle back and forth. The sixth or seventh guy of a bullpen is fringy at best so I'm not sure why you think the Sox would be facing such a shutdown guy. Odds are those guys was used in innings 7 thru 11, and most of those guys aren't multiple inning pitchers. I get it. A lot of you value Wright in a way of the bullpen in other ways. All that really comes down to is what Dave D. views Wright and he barely seen anything from him. I would bet that he doesn't view Wright the same as most of the people arguing for Wright and his value in the bullpen. I'll take my chances thinking that he airs on my side of the argument of not wanting to see a knuckle ball in a bullpen. Especially since he hasn't see much of Wright.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 6, 2015 14:00:40 GMT -5
“@jeffpassan: From the not-a-surprise department: Multiple GMs say because of the price of free agents, they expect trade action in Nashville to be big.”
So I assume DD is not done
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2015 14:03:05 GMT -5
Sure, but that doesn't change the conclusion. At these levels of magnitude (i.e., significantly less than once an inning), a pitcher's propensity for wild pitches/passed balls just don't matter that much. It doesn't transform an otherwise fine pitcher into one that becomes unusable in extra innings. We will see if the same holds true if Wright comes into the first extra inning game of the year and he gives up the winning run on a wild pitch. I'm guessing the first time that happens, we won't ever be seeing Wright ever again. Would it be better if it were on a flat knuckleball as if it's any different than any other pitcher giving up a homerun on a meatball. And yes wild pitches never happen by other pitches. Don't know how old you are but Bob Moose of the 1972 Pirates blew the pennant throwing a wild pitch. Mickey Owen's PB in the World Series cost the Dodgers in 1941 and I'm sure you know all about Bob Stanley's wild pitch that helped cost the Sox the 1986 Series. What do they have in common. They're all guys that were knuckleball pitchers. It can happen to anybody. Knucklers are more prone to that but I'm not going to worry about the handful of times the Sox lose in 15 innings (or even win as I know you won't acknowledge that as annoying as Wright was in the 19 inning game - he was the WINNING PITCHER of the game having lasted 5 innings and saving the rest of the staff so a starter didn't have to enter the game. And as far as the importance of that game - ulimately it didn't mean a damn thing. It was just 1 game of 162. You can cherry pick any game the Sox lose that they shouldn't have for whatever reason. You're doing some ultimate cherry picking.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 14:10:31 GMT -5
We will see if the same holds true if Wright comes into the first extra inning game of the year and he gives up the winning run on a wild pitch. I'm guessing the first time that happens, we won't ever be seeing Wright ever again. Would it be better if it were on a flat knuckleball as if it's any different than any other pitcher giving up a homerun on a meatball. And yes wild pitches never happen by other pitches. Don't know how old you are but Bob Moose of the 1972 Pirates blew the pennant throwing a wild pitch. Mickey Owen's PB in the World Series cost the Dodgers in 1941 and I'm sure you know all about Bob Stanley's wild pitch that helped cost the Sox the 1986 Series. What do they have in common. They're all guys that were knuckleball pitchers. It can happen to anybody. Knucklers are more prone to that but I'm not going to worry about the handful of times the Sox lose in 15 innings (or even win as I know you won't acknowledge that as annoying as Wright was in the 19 inning game - he was the WINNING PITCHER of the game having lasted 5 innings and saving the rest of the staff so a starter didn't have to enter the game. And as far as the importance of that game - ulimately it didn't mean a damn thing. It was just 1 game of 162. You can cherry pick any game the Sox lose that they shouldn't have for whatever reason. You're doing some ultimate cherry picking. Even other posters have acknowledged that the knuckle ball is a pitch that gives up way more passed balls/wild pitches more than anyone else. Would love to see what Wakefield's and Wright's career numbers in extra innings to prove my ultimate point.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 6, 2015 14:12:03 GMT -5
All that really comes down to is what Dave D. views Wright and he barely seen anything from him. I would bet that he doesn't view Wright the same as most of the people arguing for Wright and his value in the bullpen. I'll take my chances thinking that he airs on my side of the argument of not wanting to see a knuckle ball in a bullpen. Especially since he hasn't see much of Wright. You just keep repeating yourself. Yes, we get it, you hate knuckleballers. If Wright gets DFAed and becomes the #3 starter for the Oakland A's, producing 4 years of solid perfomances there before being traded for two decent prospects, you will comfort yourself with the thought that at least Dave Dombrowski was on your side. Good for you.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 14:16:46 GMT -5
All that really comes down to is what Dave D. views Wright and he barely seen anything from him. I would bet that he doesn't view Wright the same as most of the people arguing for Wright and his value in the bullpen. I'll take my chances thinking that he airs on my side of the argument of not wanting to see a knuckle ball in a bullpen. Especially since he hasn't see much of Wright. You just keep repeating yourself. Yes, we get it, you hate knuckleballers. If Wright gets DFAed and becomes the #3 starter for the Oakland A's, producing 4 years of solid perfomances there before being traded for two decent prospects, you will comfort yourself with the thought that at least Dave Dombrowski was on your side. Good for you. A number 3 starter? Now we know how much you over rate Wright. My god.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 14:19:05 GMT -5
I actually like knuckle ball pitchers as starters for the record. Think they are best used out of that spot in the BACK END of the rotation. A number 3? Get out of here.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2015 14:27:50 GMT -5
I don't know exactly what you're looking for, but I imagine it doesn't exist. In 2016, you will not find a long reliever better than Wright who will pitch enough innings to keep stretched out. Let's see if Dave views things the same way especially since he's hasn't seen much of Wright really. If I had to guess if I am right in thinking he's getting dfad over what 70% of people of here who have been following Wright for the past 3+ years he's been in the organization, I would take Dave dfaing him. We will see who's right in the end, baring there's no crazy amount of injuries out of spring training of course. I would guess Dave would rather have Kelly as a long man/bullpen option for the team over Wright all day. Kelly would not get enough innings as a long man to stay stretched out. This is not the 80s when there were 5 man bullpens. I bet there are almost no long relievers left in baseball. Wright just gives us that luxury. If he were replaced, we would not have a long reliever.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 14:36:03 GMT -5
Let's see if Dave views things the same way especially since he's hasn't seen much of Wright really. If I had to guess if I am right in thinking he's getting dfad over what 70% of people of here who have been following Wright for the past 3+ years he's been in the organization, I would take Dave dfaing him. We will see who's right in the end, baring there's no crazy amount of injuries out of spring training of course. I would guess Dave would rather have Kelly as a long man/bullpen option for the team over Wright all day. Kelly would not get enough innings as a long man to stay stretched out. This is not the 80s when there were 5 man bullpens. Okay but he could give plenty as a long man going 3/4 innings max and we wouldn't be having the same problems as we would be seeing with the knuckle ball.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2015 14:41:43 GMT -5
Kelly would not get enough innings as a long man to stay stretched out. This is not the 80s when there were 5 man bullpens. Okay but he could give plenty as a long man going 3/4 innings max and we wouldn't be having the same problems as we would be seeing with the knuckle ball. No, he'd be used for 1-2 innings at most and unable to pitch 5 innings. And in the 19 inning games (all 20 of them they play a year or whatever), there would be either a starter pitching or a position player. But at least they wouldn't be throwing knuckle balls.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 14:46:54 GMT -5
Shouldn't we all be talking about and preparing for what the Sox are GOING to do instead of what WE think Dave SHOULD do?
Like arguing against a case for trading Miley or Kelly only to see one or the other be traded 4 days later from now doesn't make sense to me.
Arguing for a spot for Wright on the 25 man roster at least makes some sense but I'm surprised to see more people not airring on the side of my case. Just really surprised how many people value a long man especially with so many relievers that can be optioned up and down between the minors and majors.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 14:49:13 GMT -5
Okay but he could give plenty as a long man going 3/4 innings max and we wouldn't be having the same problems as we would be seeing with the knuckle ball. No, he'd be used for 1-2 innings at most and unable to pitch 5 innings. And in the 19 inning games (all 20 of them they play a year or whatever), there would be either a starter pitching or a position player. But at least they wouldn't be throwing knuckle balls. Yeap and you can bring up another starter the next day and option a reliever who was extensively used during the 19 inning game. Case and point.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 14:53:56 GMT -5
Would love to hear the knuckle ball defenders for the bullpen come out and tell me the stats on Wakefield and Stephen Wright's career numbers in extra innings to prove my point. I bet they're not pretty.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2015 15:00:26 GMT -5
Stephen Wright has pitched in extra innings once in his career. He went 5 innings and won the game.
Exactly how many extra inning losses do you expect him to get? This is bordering on lunacy.
Wakefield pitched in 9 extra inning games for a total of 8 1/3 innings over the course of a 17 year career. He gave up 5 runs, 4 earned.
This is about as ridiculous as arguing over the bat boy.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 6, 2015 15:00:19 GMT -5
Would love to hear the knuckle ball defenders for the bullpen come out and tell me the stats on Wakefield and Stephen Wright's career numbers in extra innings to prove my point. I bet they're not pretty. Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS was the signature moment of Wakefield's career. In the regular season, he pitched a grand total of 8 1/3 innings in extras, with a 4.32 ERA. His career ERA in innings 1 through 9 was 4.41.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 6, 2015 15:03:35 GMT -5
[...] I already gave the meaningful numbers: the whole career as a starter, which, like Miley's is league average (in fact, they have identical career ERAs of 3.95). It's a small sample, but 100+ innings at league average, at the very least, is evidence that the guy may well be league average. Evidence that the Wright-haters say doesn't exist. [...] When pinned down you use cautious terms like "may well be." But then you propose jettisoning other players bases on the belief that the guy definitely can be counted on to be at least league average. This is the kind of slippery argumentation desperate car salesmen use on dumb people.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 6, 2015 15:04:40 GMT -5
Would love to hear the knuckle ball defenders for the bullpen come out and tell me the stats on Wakefield and Stephen Wright's career numbers in extra innings to prove my point. I bet they're not pretty. Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS was the signature moment of Wakefield's career. In the regular season, he pitched a grand total of 8 1/3 innings in extras, with a 4.32 ERA. His career ERA in innings 1 through 9 was 4.41. So the Sox did everything they could to avoid pitching Wakefield in extra innings? I wonder what was his blown saves was or his record was in those 8 1/3?
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