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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 6, 2016 19:00:36 GMT -5
The Sox have 3 new pitchers on the team this year already, maybe more by opening day, that Swihart needs to catch. I can't see one reason for him to be playing any other position at this point in his career. Even Cherington admitted that this type of position changing may have been counter productive. Is there an evidence that DD is likely to do this kind of thing? Let him continue his apprenticeship before this type of move is considered.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 7, 2016 11:46:33 GMT -5
The overriding impression when watching Swihart, for me, is that he's an athlete playing baseball. What that means for his value or where he should play, I have no idea. He's still learning, it seems. I thought he was pulling his foot out hitting left-handed against same-side pitching early in the season, putting it in the bucket they used to say. By the end of the season that looked like it was no longer happening. All that makes him a really interesting player. Guessing you mean hitting left-handed against RHP, as he's a switch hitter. Actually, it's interesting that his numbers in MLB were pretty solid vs RHP (.754 OPS), while he struggled vs. LHP (.603) after typically hitting them much better in the minors. I'll chalk that up to SSS -- his swing still seemed prettier from the right side. Yes, that's exactly what I meant. Thanks for correcting me.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 9, 2016 17:24:45 GMT -5
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Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 9, 2016 18:34:59 GMT -5
Wow, was he even bad defensively, though? He certainly didn't seem any worse than mediocre.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 9, 2016 19:39:10 GMT -5
That's just straight-up stupid, though, for him to presume that, at 23, that's all Swihart's bat would ever be...particularly given how much time catchers are forced to divert from hitting to perform catching duties.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 9, 2016 19:47:11 GMT -5
FWIW, in that same chat, he expected Rodriguez to match his projections, which are basically exactly what he did last year. For a 22-y/o rookie who had several brutal shellings when he was tipping his pitches, predicting no improvement as a sophomore seems incredibly conservative.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 9, 2016 20:27:48 GMT -5
Rodriguez is very young. No guarantee he breaks out this year.
He also had this to say:
GG: Why do people think the Red Sox are going to be good? Is it really that outlandish that I don’t think Price and Kimbrel are enough? I see Boston last in the division again. 12:43 august fagerstrom: Well obviously Price and Kimbrel are massive upgrades, and that bullpen is stacked with Smith, too, but I wrote about this earlier: I think one of the big things people forget about is that regression goes both ways. Hanley and Panda were worth like -5 WAR last year. Even if they’re just average players, you’re talking like a 7-9 win swing 12:43 august fagerstrom: Nobody should actually expect those two to be the two worst players in all of baseball again
He's a new guy there, but I don't think he said anything totally outlandish. We all have opinions. Swihart has red flags offensively (especially his LHB mechanics IMO). The chances of all of our young guys panning out is pretty close to 0%. I can accept him being low on one of them.
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2016 21:20:48 GMT -5
That's just straight-up stupid, though, for him to presume that, at 23, that's all Swihart's bat would ever be...particularly given how much time catchers are forced to divert from hitting to perform catching duties. I'm not sure it's that much smarter to presume that Swihart will make significant improvements offensively just by virtue of his being a catcher. Remember, we're talking about a guy with a career .284/.339/.421 (110 wRC+) line in the minor leagues, with league-averagish walk (Swihart 7.9%, league 7.8%), strikeout (Swihart 17.1%, league 19.9%), and power (Swihart .138, league .153). His hit tool scouts well, but there are legitimate questions about whether he has more than average power or patience. He has more offensive upside than most catchers, but I've always been super duper skeptical at the Posey comparisons and think someone like Matt Wieters (career .258/.320/.423) may be more appropriate. Swihart's defense was legitimately bad last year. While he always scouted well defensively in the minors, Defensive Runs Saved (which considers pitch-blocking and stolen-base-prevention) ranked him as the worst defensive catcher in the league last year, and his framing rated out as below-average as well. Given his reputation, I think that's likely to improve going forward, but there's no doubt that he had a disappointing first year defensively.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 9, 2016 22:24:42 GMT -5
That's just straight-up stupid, though, for him to presume that, at 23, that's all Swihart's bat would ever be...particularly given how much time catchers are forced to divert from hitting to perform catching duties. I'm not sure it's that much smarter to presume that Swihart will make significant improvements offensively just by virtue of his being a catcher. Remember, we're talking about a guy with a career .284/.339/.421 (110 wRC+) line in the minor leagues, with league-averagish walk (Swihart 7.9%, league 7.8%), strikeout (Swihart 17.1%, league 19.9%), and power (Swihart .138, league .153). His hit tool scouts well, but there are legitimate questions about whether he has more than average power or patience. He has more offensive upside than most catchers, but I've always been super duper skeptical at the Posey comparisons and think someone like Matt Wieters (career .258/.320/.423) may be more appropriate. Swihart's defense was legitimately bad last year. While he always scouted well defensively in the minors, Defensive Runs Saved (which considers pitch-blocking and stolen-base-prevention) ranked him as the worst defensive catcher in the league last year, and his framing rated out as below-average as well. Given his reputation, I think that's likely to improve going forward, but there's no doubt that he had a disappointing first year defensively. It might not be much smarter to presume that Swihart will make "significant improvements" by virtue of being a catcher alone. I'm not sure why you would think he would. I have noticed, however, that he's been generally age-advanced and is learning a new position, not to mention learning to hit left-handed. He's also shown consistent improvement during his minor league (and major league) career, with relatively short adjustment times. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blake-swihart-the-red-sox-mythical-third-prospect/
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Post by telson13 on Feb 9, 2016 22:30:46 GMT -5
In addition, I think it's arguable that if Swihart were *removed* from catching, he could probably spend substantially *more* time on his hitting, without changing the total hours in a day that he spends on baseball. That doesn't guarantee improved offense, but it's reasonable to think that it would help. That said, I'd prefer that he not be moved.
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2016 23:28:08 GMT -5
My point is just that a lot of Swihart's value remains projection rather than production. By the time a player has reached the majors, I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a lot more growth, and it certainly makes him a lot riskier than, say, someone like Betts, who has shown both tools and production.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 10, 2016 1:52:53 GMT -5
Rodriguez is very young. No guarantee he breaks out this year. He also had this to say: GG: Why do people think the Red Sox are going to be good? Is it really that outlandish that I don’t think Price and Kimbrel are enough? I see Boston last in the division again. 12:43 august fagerstrom: Well obviously Price and Kimbrel are massive upgrades, and that bullpen is stacked with Smith, too, but I wrote about this earlier: I think one of the big things people forget about is that regression goes both ways. Hanley and Panda were worth like -5 WAR last year. Even if they’re just average players, you’re talking like a 7-9 win swing 12:43 august fagerstrom: Nobody should actually expect those two to be the two worst players in all of baseball again He's a new guy there, but I don't think he said anything totally outlandish. We all have opinions. Swihart has red flags offensively (especially his LHB mechanics IMO). The chances of all of our young guys panning out is pretty close to 0%. I can accept him being low on one of them. On second thought, you make a good point, I'm not as shocked by the Rodriguez prediction. Certainly, he wouldn't be the first sophomore backslide. I do, however, think that the very specific, correctable issue of tipping pitches--and how profoundly those few starts skewed Rodriguez's final stats--bodes well for substantial improvement. 11/21 starts with one or no runs. And four starts of nearly 15 innings, accounting for more than half (30) of his season (55) ER total. At least 15 were from clear pitch-tipping. I'm optimistic for him, particularly with how he finished out the year. I still think that his claim that "the bat won't play anywhere else" is flat silly. It's not a finished product, or even close to one. An .800 OPS in today's game will play anywhere but 1b provided the defense is adequate. And I don't see that as a huge stretch given his showing as a rushed rookie. I'm less sanguine about Panda and Hanley rebounding. Speier had a good piece a little while back on guys who had precipitous, cratering-value years, and the number who recovered substantially was frighteningly small. It was still a minority, I think, that even remained useful. I really, really hope they can both be even 1-WAR players, because that immediately adds about 5 wins...but I'll believe it when I see it.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 10, 2016 4:59:55 GMT -5
My point is just that a lot of Swihart's value remains projection rather than production. By the time a player has reached the majors, I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a lot more growth, and it certainly makes him a lot riskier than, say, someone like Betts, who has shown both tools and production. This is exactly why I wouldn't cry if he becomes a trade piece at the deadline. If the Sox could get a Quintana for Swihart, I'm pulling the trigger. Vasquez is the catcher of the future. His pitch framing is going to make him the best starting catcher in baseball defensively. His arm and blocking skills only add to it. Vasquez could turn out to be one of the best to ever play the position. Hard to turn away from that. I like that he's right handed too. Maybe that gets him a few extra doubles at Fenway in his career.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 10, 2016 5:22:06 GMT -5
Yeah that's overly harsh. Swihart's 91 wRC+ ranked 189th out of 268 players with at least 300 PA last season. It's not that good, but as a 23 year old rookie, that's OK I guess. He certainly projects to be a good enough hitter to be on some team as a non-catcher. It might not be as a starter, but still... he would be a major leaguer.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Feb 10, 2016 6:42:14 GMT -5
My point is just that a lot of Swihart's value remains projection rather than production. By the time a player has reached the majors, I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a lot more growth, and it certainly makes him a lot riskier than, say, someone like Betts, who has shown both tools and production. How can "by the time a player reaches the majors" be a significant factor, when he was third on the depth chart and the two guys ahead of him went down? If he had stayed in AAA til September, would it be more "reasonable ... to expect a lot more growth"?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2016 7:28:56 GMT -5
My point is just that a lot of Swihart's value remains projection rather than production. By the time a player has reached the majors, I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a lot more growth, and it certainly makes him a lot riskier than, say, someone like Betts, who has shown both tools and production. Swihart was in the majors out of necessity more than merit. It's very reasonable to expect that a 23 year old catcher at any level will continue to improve. He still showed signs of improving last year.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2016 10:28:40 GMT -5
I don't think my opinion of him would change that much if Swihart had stayed in AAA and hit the equivalent of what he did in the majors. Either way, he had a somewhat disappointing offensive season last year and is entering his age-24 season. I think it's fine to expect some improvement, say, to the 100-105 wRC+ range, but I think an .800 OPS is pretty much his ceiling (i.e., his 10th percentile projection) and not a reasonable baseline expectation.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 10, 2016 10:43:21 GMT -5
My point is just that a lot of Swihart's value remains projection rather than production. By the time a player has reached the majors, I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a lot more growth, and it certainly makes him a lot riskier than, say, someone like Betts, who has shown both tools and production. This is exactly why I wouldn't cry if he becomes a trade piece at the deadline. If the Sox could get a Quintana for Swihart, I'm pulling the trigger. Vasquez is the catcher of the future. His pitch framing is going to make him the best starting catcher in baseball defensively. His arm and blocking skills only add to it. Vasquez could turn out to be one of the best to ever play the position. Hard to turn away from that. I like that he's right handed too. Maybe that gets him a few extra doubles at Fenway in his career. It's not just about pitch framing, as you say, though he's been exceptional at that. Watching Vazquez play catcher was one of the most enjoyable parts of an otherwise forgettable 2014 season. He controls the running game with his arm and the ridiculous release times thanks to exceptional footwork. He's also a dedicated student who knows the opposing lineup, and he calls very good games. He's near the top of the catching tree. I like Swihart, and I think he will improve over the next few years. But the difference in what Vazquez brings defensively versus what Swihart can deliver is dramatic, in my opinion. It more than makes up for the additional power that Swihart will probably develop. Vazquez has always had enough pop to draw quite a few walks and that adds to his value. Like jmei, I'd really like to see him back in the lineup as the season goes along.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 10, 2016 10:50:39 GMT -5
I don't think my opinion of him would change that much if Swihart had stayed in AAA and hit the equivalent of what he did in the majors. Either way, he had a somewhat disappointing offensive season last year and is entering his age-24 season. I think it's fine to expect some improvement, say, to the 100-105 wRC+ range, but I think an .800 OPS is pretty much his ceiling (i.e., his 10th percentile projection) and not a reasonable baseline expectation. I think I would suppose that if he had stayed in AAA he would have hit better, for a better equivalent, than he averaged for the year in mlb, perhaps hitting all year the way he did in the second half. To have only 38 games in AAA before you're asked to be the #1 catcher on a $200M major league team can't be good for your hitting. It must have been like "Here, you fly the plane!" Varitek hit .253 .309 .407 .716 in 86 games at age 26, then had seven years of .273 .353 .460 .813, with five years at .280 .361 .470 .831
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Post by Gwell55 on Feb 10, 2016 12:10:09 GMT -5
Yeah that's overly harsh. Swihart's 91 wRC+ ranked 189th out of 268 players with at least 300 PA last season. It's not that good, but as a 23 year old rookie, that's OK I guess. He certainly projects to be a good enough hitter to be on some team as a non-catcher. It might not be as a starter, but still... he would be a major leaguer. I got a pair of questions that should be asked I believe: With Blake clearly struggling in his first half through 40 Games and only hitting .240/279/323 and 623 ops then in the second half in 44 games hitting .303/353/452 and 805 ops Why would that not be better than average for any young rookie? Why would you be lead to believe he can't hit in the Major leagues with that line? That looks normal to me for a lot of young MLB kids.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2016 12:21:14 GMT -5
I don't think my opinion of him would change that much if Swihart had stayed in AAA and hit the equivalent of what he did in the majors. Either way, he had a somewhat disappointing offensive season last year and is entering his age-24 season. I think it's fine to expect some improvement, say, to the 100-105 wRC+ range, but I think an .800 OPS is pretty much his ceiling (i.e., his 10th percentile projection) and not a reasonable baseline expectation. I think I would suppose that if he had stayed in AAA he would have hit better, for a better equivalent, than he averaged for the year in mlb, perhaps hitting all year the way he did in the second half. To have only 38 games in AAA before you're asked to be the #1 catcher on a $200M major league team can't be good for your hitting. It must have been like "Here, you fly the plane!" Varitek hit .253 .309 .407 .716 in 86 games at age 26, then had seven years of .273 .353 .460 .813, with five years at .280 .361 .470 .831 And that's a much more typical age for catchers to make the majors. I also think you cannot ignore the switch hitting aspect.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2016 12:31:45 GMT -5
I think I would suppose that if he had stayed in AAA he would have hit better, for a better equivalent, than he averaged for the year in mlb, perhaps hitting all year the way he did in the second half. To have only 38 games in AAA before you're asked to be the #1 catcher on a $200M major league team can't be good for your hitting. It must have been like "Here, you fly the plane!" Varitek hit .253 .309 .407 .716 in 86 games at age 26, then had seven years of .273 .353 .460 .813, with five years at .280 .361 .470 .831 And that's a much more typical age for catchers to make the majors. I also think you cannot ignore the switch hitting aspect. This data is a little old, but the average debut age for catchers from 2005-2009 was ~24.8, so it's a fair point that Swihart is about two years more age advanced than the average catcher. But the Varitek path of development is atypical. For every Varitek, there are a litany of Saltalamacchias and Tyler Flowerses and Dioner Navarros who don't make that jump.
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