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2016 Red Sox Spring Training News/Discussion
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2016 17:38:20 GMT -5
1. Given how quickly he's picked up center field (he's still got more career pro innings at second base than in center...), I'm not really worried about him suddenly forgetting how to play baseball in right field. 2. I'll go out on a limb and guess that the balls that Bradley will get to in center field that Betts would not have will more than make up the number of baserunners who take third on Betts that wouldn't on Bradley. Does that include the runners tagging up on third also? I think you're underating how many important throws a rf has to make in a year. Cf is important but rf Fenway is arguably just as important. It does not include that. Home plate is the same distance from all three outfield positions. The "right fielder has the best arm" thing only matters because the runner proceeds in a counter-clockwise direction, and therefore, while outfielders make throws to third, they do not make throws to first (which would be the farthest throw for the left fielder). Again, I stand by my statement that putting the guy with the best range in CF is more important than putting the guy with the best arm in RF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 19, 2016 17:52:18 GMT -5
Does that include the runners tagging up on third also? I think you're underating how many important throws a rf has to make in a year. Cf is important but rf Fenway is arguably just as important. It does not include that. Home plate is the same distance from all three outfield positions. The "right fielder has the best arm" thing only matters because the runner proceeds in a counter-clockwise direction, and therefore, while outfielders make throws to third, they do not make throws to first (which would be the farthest throw for the left fielder). Again, I stand by my statement that putting the guy with the best range in CF is more important than putting the guy with the best arm in RF. C'mon, dw. Try to stop and think before you continue to fight a lost argument. When a guy is on 3B and tags up, you want the stronger arm in CF (fractionally) because, on average, he'll be deeper. Your rebuttal just helps state the opposite case. Chris stands by his argument, and I stand by mine that the world is round, not flat. Furthermore, Betts will actually play RF better than Bradley, because Bradley's skill in CF is largely learned and position-specific, while Mookie just plays great everywhere due to his athleticism. I explained that in detail recently and gave the hard evidence. So the only odd thing is Betts in RF and Castillo in LF rather tha vice versa. But that's because Castillo, who does not have great baseball instincts and could be expected to struggle with both the tricky LF and RF in Boston, actually played the Wall and LF corner like the second coming of Yaz.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 19, 2016 18:05:00 GMT -5
I just don't like jerking Betts around because he's "athletic enough to do it." The same thing happened to Xander and he struggled. I rather him just focus on one position and harness it. That's the main reason why this "JBJ has to be in cf" stuff really irks me.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 19, 2016 18:06:55 GMT -5
Why are people assuming the farm system takes a hit at the deadline? They've been a last place team 3 of the past 4 years. Its a possibility but not a given. Actually the Sox system will actually be better by the deadline because the 2016 draft will already be done and most of the players will be signed by then. That includes this year's number 12 pick.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 19, 2016 18:18:30 GMT -5
Tough call to say who was the most improved. You can say that the White Sox made the best improvements in a off-season. With their infield doing nothing last year, they went on to get Bret Lawrie and Todd Frazier.The Sox bullpen can also be made a case to be most improved from a year ago. After being in the bottom 5 of worst bullpens they should be a top 5 bullpen this coming year. So due to that I give a slight edge to the Sox. They should really sign Desmond. Solid short stop who should come relatively cheap after his down season. They have a protected pick as well. Competition in that division is steep, but they should go for it. Yeah sorry meant to get back to this comment but I totally agree. Desmond fits perfectly with their "we can only sign players to three year deal maximum" thing they got going on over there. Not only that but their pick is protected (like you mentioned) and he's a clear upgrade over anything they have at short stop right now.
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Post by templeusox on Feb 19, 2016 18:50:37 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm that Hazen said on the radio that he's never seen Benintendi play?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 19, 2016 19:15:40 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm that Hazen said on the radio that he's never seen Benintendi play? What the hell? That would be very odd in my opinion.
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Post by templeusox on Feb 19, 2016 19:27:08 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm that Hazen said on the radio that he's never seen Benintendi play? What the hell? That would be very odd in my opinion. To clarify, never seen him live and in person.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 19, 2016 19:43:53 GMT -5
I just don't like jerking Betts around because he's "athletic enough to do it." The same thing happened to Xander and he struggled. I rather him just focus on one position and harness it. That's the main reason why this "JBJ has to be in cf" stuff really irks me. It's absurd to keep equating Xander's situation to Mookie's. Xander was a shaky defensive shortstop with ~60 games at the position in the majors, and then got pushed to third base, a position that in many aspects is quite different from shortstop. Mookie, already having established himself as a solid defensive outfielder, may be asked to oscillate between two positions that are extremely similar. It's not a big deal, it's not "jerking", and many players are asked to shift around outfield spots all the time (especially younger guys). He's not being set up for potential failure like Xander was -- you're not going to have fans ripping Betts for misplaying balls in RF, and then have that get in his head and affect his overall performance. I'll also note that, for all this talk about Mookie being a great CF with a limited arm, his arm was a significant contributor to his 2015 DRS and UZR. If his arm had simply been +0 runs above average, he'd have a +5 DRS (instead of +9), and a +0.5 UZR (instead of 1.5). Point is, the "Mookie may not be as amazing as JBJ in CF, but he's still pretty great there" may not be true. He's very solid, and I'd expect him to continue to improve, but the difference between the two is large enough that you want JBJ in center. Also, I agree with Eric's final paragraph in his post above, and that speaks to my observation that JBJ frequently didn't look like himself when chasing down balls in LF/RF. Save for his arm, Mookie could be a truly stellar RF.
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Post by burythehammer on Feb 19, 2016 19:54:48 GMT -5
What the hell? That would be very odd in my opinion. To clarify, never seen him live and in person. This is still surprising, no? For a top 10 pick?
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Post by templeusox on Feb 19, 2016 20:04:05 GMT -5
To clarify, never seen him live and in person. This is still surprising, no? For a top 10 pick? If it's true, it's completely insane.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2016 20:52:46 GMT -5
... Young will start ~ 35% of the games, with JBJ sitting... Young will probably be spelling all the outfielders, I'd bet. Given the way Bradley mashed lefties last season, the casual assumption that he loses 200-250 PAs is, I hope, wrong. He deserves the chance to play, and play a lot. If he gets jerked around as he has in the past, it will be to his detriment, and to the team's in my opinion. Surely, you're not advocating an equal rotation among Betts/Castillo/JBJ? Sitting your best player gratuitously is probably not a recipe for success. Where did this "JBJ has been jerked around" meme come from? You're not the only one who has been propounding it. Was he jerked around in 2013? In 2014, he was allowed to put up 423 PA of 46+ playing everyday; that's probably unprecedented. Is there anyone who thinks that it was a mistake to call up Betts in mid-August to supplant him? The only issue one can have is that JBJ should have been sent down *much earlier* (my contemporaneous contention) - and I suspect that that is not what you mean by "jerked around". As for 2015, I concede that his stints pre AS break, he wasn't given much a chance (it's safe to say that Farrell had (has?) little faith in him, but he had cause). And then the last two months of the season he was given an everyday position (and excelled). I think the Red Sox have shown extraordinary patience with their recent prospects (JBJ, Bogaerts, WMB), and all of their failures have been first and foremost on the players. Let's parse what you said. I stuck it back in there for clarity. And let's turn the question around. Do you think Betts will play 162 games? That Castillo will play even 150? How much do you think they will play? It's a 162 game season, and that's before they get to the playoffs if they make it. And what is a fourth outfielder for? Let me say again, if Bradley is sitting for 35% of the games - or about 200-250 at bats, I don't think it does either he or the team any good. I hope they give him a good long look, without the hook hanging over him. As far as getting "jerked around", he was on a yo-yo string thanks the FO buying in to the useless spring training hype by the media, who then they disowned the guy as quickly as they'd bought his stock. Lot's of folks on this board thought it was a mistake. The general chatter was that he should get AAA at bats first. I also thought it was a bad idea, though it didn't see much harm in it, but I think I was wrong. That and being brought up against some of the tougher pitchers in the league for a handful of at bats, then sent back down. I think the stability at the end of last year did him a lot of good. I have no idea what his role will be, and neither do you. I do know that Dombrowski got a first hand look at the talent, both the hitting and fielding. He openly stated that he was interested in getting good defense out there, and that Bradley was the centerfielder. How far they go with that is the open question.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2016 20:56:59 GMT -5
I just don't like jerking Betts around because he's "athletic enough to do it." The same thing happened to Xander and he struggled. I rather him just focus on one position and harness it. That's the main reason why this "JBJ has to be in cf" stuff really irks me. The guy looked fine in the outfield, then he killed it at second replacing Pedroia when he first came up. Your chasing ghosts that aren't there. And we don't get to make the decisions about Bradley and Betts, the FO and manager do.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 20, 2016 1:17:22 GMT -5
I just don't like jerking Betts around because he's "athletic enough to do it." The same thing happened to Xander and he struggled. I rather him just focus on one position and harness it. That's the main reason why this "JBJ has to be in cf" stuff really irks me. It's absurd to keep equating Xander's situation to Mookie's. Xander was a shaky defensive shortstop with ~60 games at the position in the majors, and then got pushed to third base, a position that in many aspects is quite different from shortstop. Mookie, already having established himself as a solid defensive outfielder, may be asked to oscillate between two positions that are extremely similar. It's not a big deal, it's not "jerking", and many players are asked to shift around outfield spots all the time (especially younger guys). He's not being set up for potential failure like Xander was -- you're not going to have fans ripping Betts for misplaying balls in RF, and then have that get in his head and affect his overall performance. I'll also note that, for all this talk about Mookie being a great CF with a limited arm, his arm was a significant contributor to his 2015 DRS and UZR. If his arm had simply been +0 runs above average, he'd have a +5 DRS (instead of +9), and a +0.5 UZR (instead of 1.5). Point is, the "Mookie may not be as amazing as JBJ in CF, but he's still pretty great there" may not be true. He's very solid, and I'd expect him to continue to improve, but the difference between the two is large enough that you want JBJ in center. Also, I agree with Eric's final paragraph in his post above, and that speaks to my observation that JBJ frequently didn't look like himself when chasing down balls in LF/RF. Save for his arm, Mookie could be a truly stellar RF. All true, and there's an even bigger factor. Here are two careers in CF: Presumed significant amateur experience 153 games in the minors 291 games in the majors at -6 R/150, DRS No significant amateur experience 90 games in the minors 158 games in the majors at +9 You probably get that the second guy is Mookie. Let me expand the first guy: 291 games in the majors at -6 R/150, DRS, while (mostly subsequently) playing 216 games in LF at +18Jed Hoyer has the idea of giving him another shot in CF, as Johnny Damon's replacement 720 more games in CF at +6 (which is, BTW, exactly what you'd expect from his +18 in LF) Now, I don't know how typical Coco's slow learning curve was, but I do know that Mookie's was insanely fast. The point being that Mookie was thrown into CF with an absurdly limited amount of OF experience and was instantly a plus defender. To think he'll be negatively impacted by being moved to RF is crazy.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 20, 2016 2:49:34 GMT -5
It's absurd to keep equating Xander's situation to Mookie's. Xander was a shaky defensive shortstop with ~60 games at the position in the majors, and then got pushed to third base, a position that in many aspects is quite different from shortstop. Mookie, already having established himself as a solid defensive outfielder, may be asked to oscillate between two positions that are extremely similar. It's not a big deal, it's not "jerking", and many players are asked to shift around outfield spots all the time (especially younger guys). He's not being set up for potential failure like Xander was -- you're not going to have fans ripping Betts for misplaying balls in RF, and then have that get in his head and affect his overall performance. I'll also note that, for all this talk about Mookie being a great CF with a limited arm, his arm was a significant contributor to his 2015 DRS and UZR. If his arm had simply been +0 runs above average, he'd have a +5 DRS (instead of +9), and a +0.5 UZR (instead of 1.5). Point is, the "Mookie may not be as amazing as JBJ in CF, but he's still pretty great there" may not be true. He's very solid, and I'd expect him to continue to improve, but the difference between the two is large enough that you want JBJ in center. Also, I agree with Eric's final paragraph in his post above, and that speaks to my observation that JBJ frequently didn't look like himself when chasing down balls in LF/RF. Save for his arm, Mookie could be a truly stellar RF. All true, and there's an even bigger factor. Here are two careers in CF: Presumed significant amateur experience 153 games in the minors 291 games in the majors at -6 R/150, DRS No significant amateur experience 90 games in the minors 158 games in the majors at +9 You probably get that the second guy is Mookie. Let me expand the first guy: 291 games in the majors at -6 R/150, DRS, while (mostly subsequently) playing 216 games in LF at +18Jed Hoyer has the idea of giving him another shot in CF, as Johnny Damon's replacement 720 more games in CF at +6 (which is, BTW, exactly what you'd expect from his +18 in LF) Now, I don't know how typical Coco's slow learning curve was, but I do know that Mookie's was insanely fast. The point being that Mookie was thrown into CF with an absurdly limited amount of OF experience and was instantly a plus defender. To think he'll be negatively impacted by being moved to RF is crazy. I don't think it will negatively impact his defense. It will be the offense that'll be the first to fall. Hopefully not. Hopefully he keeps showing he can do it all while being unfazed where they put him. Just is unfair to ask that from him.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 20, 2016 2:52:39 GMT -5
I just don't like jerking Betts around because he's "athletic enough to do it." The same thing happened to Xander and he struggled. I rather him just focus on one position and harness it. That's the main reason why this "JBJ has to be in cf" stuff really irks me. It's absurd to keep equating Xander's situation to Mookie's. Xander was a shaky defensive shortstop with ~60 games at the position in the majors, and then got pushed to third base, a position that in many aspects is quite different from shortstop. Mookie, already having established himself as a solid defensive outfielder, may be asked to oscillate between two positions that are extremely similar. It's not a big deal, it's not "jerking", and many players are asked to shift around outfield spots all the time (especially younger guys). He's not being set up for potential failure like Xander was -- you're not going to have fans ripping Betts for misplaying balls in RF, and then have that get in his head and affect his overall performance. I'll also note that, for all this talk about Mookie being a great CF with a limited arm, his arm was a significant contributor to his 2015 DRS and UZR. If his arm had simply been +0 runs above average, he'd have a +5 DRS (instead of +9), and a +0.5 UZR (instead of 1.5). Point is, the "Mookie may not be as amazing as JBJ in CF, but he's still pretty great there" may not be true. He's very solid, and I'd expect him to continue to improve, but the difference between the two is large enough that you want JBJ in center. Also, I agree with Eric's final paragraph in his post above, and that speaks to my observation that JBJ frequently didn't look like himself when chasing down balls in LF/RF. Save for his arm, Mookie could be a truly stellar RF. It's not absurd to say his offense was affected by the Sox front office moving him from short stop to third base that year. A year where he hit .240 in a full season. Now they're doing it to Mookie. I DON'T think it will be his defense that'll be most affected by it, if he's struggling at the plate this year and he's flip flopping from cf to rf then the front office is to blame. Sorry.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 20, 2016 3:00:07 GMT -5
I just don't like jerking Betts around because he's "athletic enough to do it." The same thing happened to Xander and he struggled. I rather him just focus on one position and harness it. That's the main reason why this "JBJ has to be in cf" stuff really irks me. The guy looked fine in the outfield, then he killed it at second replacing Pedroia when he first came up. Your chasing ghosts that aren't there. And we don't get to make the decisions about Bradley and Betts, the FO and manager do. I realize that. I'm just arguing it's kind of short sighted to do that to a rising superstar in Mookie. I mean for crying out loud, they're asking him to lead off, play 145+ games, and play two different positions. A lot to ask for from even a young talented guy like Mookie. Can he handle it? I think so but we will have to see. It's not like Young is playing CF on JBJ days off against LHP, it will be Mookie.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 20, 2016 8:15:53 GMT -5
Just as a point of reference, for Fenway, and most ballparks, CF is the deepest part of the ballpark. Its 420 at Fenway and 380 in RF.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 20, 2016 9:19:40 GMT -5
Just as a point of reference, for Fenway, and most ballparks, CF is the deepest part of the ballpark. Its 420 at Fenway and 380 in RF. The 420 is RCF. Straightaway CF is less. Generally the CF and RF play the same depth. And I don't think the 380 sign is straightaway RF either.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 20, 2016 10:18:43 GMT -5
I just don't like jerking Betts around because he's "athletic enough to do it." The same thing happened to Xander and he struggled. I rather him just focus on one position and harness it. That's the main reason why this "JBJ has to be in cf" stuff really irks me. Mookie came up as a RF. He's played well everywhere he's been asked to. It seems to me that he's **way** less concerned about his position than posters on here are. JBJ's routes and jumps in center are predicated on skill, not athleticism. They're learned. He largely loses that if he moves to RF (or at the very least has to relearn it). Mookie is quite new to the OF, and he's highly unlikely to lose any defensive value moving to RF. It's nothing like changing INF positions...I doubt it has any effect on his psyche or performance. The more important thing is, how does he adjust to pitchers pounding the zone (and off the plate) low-and-away? Will he take more walks this year? Steal more bases?
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Post by telson13 on Feb 20, 2016 10:43:01 GMT -5
It's absurd to keep equating Xander's situation to Mookie's. Xander was a shaky defensive shortstop with ~60 games at the position in the majors, and then got pushed to third base, a position that in many aspects is quite different from shortstop. Mookie, already having established himself as a solid defensive outfielder, may be asked to oscillate between two positions that are extremely similar. It's not a big deal, it's not "jerking", and many players are asked to shift around outfield spots all the time (especially younger guys). He's not being set up for potential failure like Xander was -- you're not going to have fans ripping Betts for misplaying balls in RF, and then have that get in his head and affect his overall performance. I'll also note that, for all this talk about Mookie being a great CF with a limited arm, his arm was a significant contributor to his 2015 DRS and UZR. If his arm had simply been +0 runs above average, he'd have a +5 DRS (instead of +9), and a +0.5 UZR (instead of 1.5). Point is, the "Mookie may not be as amazing as JBJ in CF, but he's still pretty great there" may not be true. He's very solid, and I'd expect him to continue to improve, but the difference between the two is large enough that you want JBJ in center. Also, I agree with Eric's final paragraph in his post above, and that speaks to my observation that JBJ frequently didn't look like himself when chasing down balls in LF/RF. Save for his arm, Mookie could be a truly stellar RF. It's not absurd to say his offense was affected by the Sox front office moving him from short stop to third base that year. A year where he hit .240 in a full season. Now they're doing it to Mookie. I DON'T think it will be his defense that'll be most affected by it, if he's struggling at the plate this year and he's flip flopping from cf to rf then the front office is to blame. Sorry. You missed his points, which were: 1) Xander was a below-average fielder to begin with at that point, whereas Mookie is clearly above average, placing X at much higher risk of failure and loss of confidence, 2) 3b and SS are played quite differently...there is a **substantially** greater range of plays (steals, tagging up, rundowns, cutoffs, backing up throws, etc) that occur in the INF than the OF, where the differences are largely angles and throwing distances (which is true in the INF as well). The difference between 3b and SS is an order of magnitude greater than the difference between CF and RF Also, I would wholeheartedly disagree that if Mookie struggles offensively, "the front office is to blame" because he's "flip-flopping." If Mookie struggles offensively 99 chances out of 100 it's going to be because of 1) bad BABIP luck, 2) pitchers working him away or some other adjustment that stymies him, or 3) he's hurt. In fact, I think that's the order of likelihood, too. He was all over the field when he first came up, and put up nearly identical numbers as last year. He could probably take over a couple games at PG if Isaiah Thomas got hurt, and not miss a beat. Mookie's basically "plug-n-play," it's not going to affect him in the least, unless he suddenly becomes a totally different person.
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Post by thursty on Feb 20, 2016 10:58:50 GMT -5
Sometimes I feel like I'm on the outside of an inside joke, or just can't recognize trolling.
We now have multiple posters (of course several are the usual suspects) positing the following:
You do not move a player whose defense is "unplayable" at a position (I'll use August Fagerstrom's description of Xander Bogaerts at SS in 2014 - for some reason that seems to carry weight) to another position (citing some completely speculative "psychological impact" which has the merit of being 100% unverifiable),
but you *do* move a player from his position, where he is *above average* (again citing completely speculative and unverifiable psychological traits (in contradistinction to above player's) of said player).
By that ironclad "logic", teams should keep players with < 700 OPS in the lineup so as to not endanger their fragile and sensitive psyches.
How deep does the rabbit hole go?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 20, 2016 11:10:52 GMT -5
The guy looked fine in the outfield, then he killed it at second replacing Pedroia when he first came up. Your chasing ghosts that aren't there. And we don't get to make the decisions about Bradley and Betts, the FO and manager do. I realize that. I'm just arguing it's kind of short sighted to do that to a rising superstar in Mookie. I mean for crying out loud, they're asking him to lead off, play 145+ games, and play two different positions. A lot to ask for from even a young talented guy like Mookie. Can he handle it? I think so but we will have to see. It's not like Young is playing CF on JBJ days off against LHP, it will be Mookie. Where is there any evidence that they'll be flip-flopping him? When JBJ is out, why would they put Mookie in CF and Young in RF, when they could play Young in LF and Castillo in CF? Young these days is something like a -16 in CF, -4 in RF, and +3 in LF. And although we don't have enough data to know for certain, it looks like Castillo is better in CF than Mookie.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2016 11:12:38 GMT -5
I get that Mookie and Xander are the same age, but in what other way are they similar players? Why does the disastrous moving Xander to 3B decision have anything to do whatsoever with moving Mookie to RF? Maybe Mookie is more like Machado, who became one of the best 3B in the league when he was moved off SS? Why can't Mookie switch positions like Brock Holt? When has Mookie ever lost any confidence or looked shaky in any way?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 20, 2016 11:29:51 GMT -5
Sometimes I feel like I'm on the outside of an inside joke, or just can't recognize trolling. We now have multiple posters (of course several are the usual suspects) positing the following: You do not move a player whose defense is "unplayable" at a position (I'll use August Fagerstrom's description of Xander Bogaerts at SS in 2014 - for some reason that seems to carry weight) to another position (citing some completely speculative "psychological impact" which has the merit of being 100% unverifiable), but you *do* move a player from his position, where he is *above average* (again citing completely speculative and unverifiable psychological traits (in contradistinction to above player's) of said player). By that ironclad "logic", teams should keep players with < 700 OPS in the lineup so as to not endanger their fragile and sensitive psyches. How deep does the rabbit hole go? I don't know, dw's concerrns might be justified. They started jerking Mookie around last 9/18 -- moved him to RF, back to CF, and then RF and CF the last two games -- and he only hit .314 / .385 / .543. Of course, you have to take that with a grain of salt, because the whole lineup scored 4.2 runs per game in that stretch versus the season average of 4.6, so the quality of the opposing pitching may have been a factor.
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