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Under-the-Radar Hopes and Fears
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 8, 2016 19:35:39 GMT -5
Everybody here hopes that Xander hits for power and everybody here fears that Hanley can't play 1B. Everybody hopes that Espinoza gets to Salem by mid-season and everybody fears that Trey Ball continues with more of the same.
I'd like to hear what hopes and fears folks have, if any, that aren't on everyone's mind and haven't been talked about much.
My UTR fear is that Kimbrel turns out to be just another very good closer, but nothing special. We didn't give up all that talent to get, say, the 9th best closer in MLB. Now, having that instead of a top 2 or 3 closer is not going to kill the team. But it will cast a bad light on the F.O., because that trade was predicated on looking at Kimbrel's off-year (by his standards), analyzing the crap out of it, and concluding that it was a fluke rather than the start of a decline. If that analysis was wrong, that augurs poorly for the future.
I had to think a bit to come up with a UTR hope, a rosy possibility no one is talking about. At first it felt manufactured, but the more I mull it over, the more legit it seems:
Sandoval is actually good. As in 3.5 - 4.0 WAR good. Average defense, acceptable PAs from the right side, and a stroke ideal for Fenway.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 8, 2016 21:22:55 GMT -5
My UTR hope is that Hanley takes ok to 1B and his shoulder is healed and he hits like we all know he can.
My UTR fear is that he's as bad at 1B as he was in LF last year, he loafs, and it affects his hitting.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 8, 2016 21:34:19 GMT -5
My under the radar fear is that JBJ and Castillo prove to be inadequate offensive players which forces the team to rely on Chris Young more than ideal.
My under the radar hope is that Hanley stays healthy and engaged the whole season, hits 30 bombs and we can end all discussions as to who will replace David Ortiz.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 8, 2016 21:57:32 GMT -5
My biggest UTR is that nobody steps up to claim the #2 spot in the rotation and the Sox are forced to make a deal a lot of us here wouldn't want them to make. My other UTR fears are that nobody in the OF other than Betts hit well or that Sandoval continues to decline to the point 3b is a sinkhole.
My biggest UTR hope is that Hanley Ramirez is adequate enough at 1b and will mash. My other UTR hopes that also concern 1b are that Sam Travis hits so well that he becomes a legitimate 1b option for 2017 when Ramirez shifts to DH, and that if/when Sandoval tanks at 3b that Travis Shaw can man 3b and do a good job, and my non-1b UTR hope is that Blake Swihart blossoms into such a good two way catcher that it lessens the talk about Vazquez needing to become the everyday catcher because of his ungodly framing abilities.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 8, 2016 22:49:39 GMT -5
My biggest UTR is that nobody steps up to claim the #2 spot in the rotation and the Sox are forced to make a deal a lot of us here wouldn't want them to make. My other UTR fears are that nobody in the OF other than Betts hit well or that Sandoval continues to decline to the point 3b is a sinkhole. My biggest UTR hope is that Hanley Ramirez is adequate enough at 1b and will mash. My other UTR hopes that also concern 1b are that Sam Travis hits so well that he becomes a legitimate 1b option for 2017 when Ramirez shifts to DH, and that if/when Sandoval tanks at 3b that Travis Shaw can man 3b and do a good job, and my non-1b UTR hope is that Blake Swihart blossoms into such a good two way catcher that it lessens the talk about Vazquez needing to become the everyday catcher because of his ungodly framing abilities. Mine are very similar: my biggest UTR fear is a tie, that Price has somehow peaked and will begin his decline, and that Porcello is more of last year's first half pitcher and a lot less second half. I could put my overestimating Henry Owens in there too. And the non-pitching fear is that both JBJ and Castillo struggle, possibly mightily. My biggest UTR hope is that the young catching duo takes a simultaneous leap forward: Christian Vasquez returns as good defensively as ever, with his surprising 2b/OBP offense, and that Swihart becomes his second-half self over a full season, with some power. Close behind that is that Henry Owens gets the chance to become what I think he can: a 2/3 with solid command and a swing-and-miss change.
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Post by jclmontana on Feb 8, 2016 23:06:43 GMT -5
Here is one of my many under the radar hopes: That Henry Ramos can stay healthy long enough to fulfill his very brief glimpses of potential and become a servicable MLB player.
My under the radar fear is that the Sox will be two games out of the second wildcard spot on 30 July and DD makes an painful trade of a top prospect for a a rental player, which gets us to a one-and-out playoff appearance.
People do know that under the radar refers to something that is not getting much consideration or airtime, right?
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 8, 2016 23:20:57 GMT -5
My UTR hope is that it REALLY clicks for Eduardo R. and he becomes a co-ace with Price, and that Buchholz can give us 180 innings of close-to-ace quality pitching, with his breakdown in the middle of the season due to a non-arm injury so that he can contribute in the playoffs.
My UTR fear is that Uehara and Tazawa disintegrate due to age/overuse, and we end up with a bullpen good at the very back and struggle to fill in the other pieces, as it's been for the past few years.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 23:22:38 GMT -5
Here is one of my many under the radar hopes: That Henry Ramos can stay healthy long enough to fulfill his very brief glimpses of potential and become a servicable MLB player. My under the radar fear is that the Sox will be two games out of the second wildcard spot on 30 July and DD makes an painful trade of a top prospect for a a rental player, which gets us to a one-and-out playoff appearance. People do know that under the radar refers to something that is not getting much consideration or airtime, right? I've been fearing a bad prospect trade ever since I heard Dombrowski being hired. Actually I fear that he'll do even worse and trade Mookie. Either that or the Sox wait too long and don't extend either Mookie or Xander and they lose them to free agency. More on this season. I fear Castillo is nothing but a backup. I fear that Joe Kelly is a dud. I'm less worried about anything else. Maybe another untimely Buchholz injury. I don't known if you can call this under the radar but I hope Mookie quietly finishes in the top 10 in the mvp voting with a terrific year. Also my hope is that Moncada, Espinoza, and Benintendi tear through the minor league competition. They're the final pieces to maybe all of us seeing the next great Sox team.
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Post by jmei on Feb 8, 2016 23:23:34 GMT -5
People do know that under the radar refers to something that is not getting much consideration or airtime, right? Yeah, at least half of these are not close to under the radar.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 9, 2016 0:16:37 GMT -5
People do know that under the radar refers to something that is not getting much consideration or airtime, right? Yeah, at least half of these are not close to under the radar. I think the thread should be renamed and it doesn't include under the radar on the thread. It's kind of hard to pick exactly what is under the radar or not. Like with my Mookie example. Sure he's not under the radar, especially to anyone on here but his play could be under the radar especially when compared to the rest of the league. Or naming big prospects could be more or less under the radar. They aren't followed much besides any hardcore baseball or red sox fan but they're play is important in terms of trading and even possibly playing on a big league team. Just hard to see what exactly is under the radar especially when you're talking about 5 starters and 9 everyday players. You could even include the closers and setup men in this group. Is this thread about the Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Robbie Ross Jr, and Tommy Layne's of the Sox? I'm not sure.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 9, 2016 6:50:19 GMT -5
My under the radar hope is that Travis Shaw turns into Anthony Rizzo. My under the radar fear is that Farrell won't play him because he's not a vet. My other hope is that the front office starts forcing Farrell to do several things he normally doesn't do. My other fear is that we see Allen Craig in RF.
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Post by cologneredsox on Feb 9, 2016 8:03:29 GMT -5
My under the radar fear is that JBJ and Castillo prove to be inadequate offensive players which forces the team to rely on Chris Young more than ideal. My under the radar hope is that Hanley stays healthy and engaged the whole season, hits 30 bombs and we can end all discussions as to who will replace David Ortiz. This, but let me add another utr hope: Henry Owens claims a starting spot early in the season and gives us at least a "3" season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2016 9:42:18 GMT -5
I like it.
UTR Hope: That Trey Ball has that breakout season that seems so improbable (at best).
(Maybe not "under the radar", but I think that I think it's more possible than a lot of other people do. He'll never be an ace but I think it's not the foregone conclusion that he's awful that a lot of people do.)
UTR Fear: That something happens with a couple of the top four guys (trade, injury, stalled development of some other sort, etc.) and the system gets exposed for being as thin as it's been in at least 5 years.
(Seriously though, we're not talking about this because the top is so great - and rightfully so, but the last time the number 8-10 guys were of this caliber was probably early 2011 when you had guys like Yamaico Navarro and Kolbrin Vitek in that range. I can't remember the last time guys who were actually pitching in relief (as opposed to guys like, say, Buttrey, who might project there but are starting) were as high as 16/18/19. This is not a deep system right now.)
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Post by jrffam05 on Feb 9, 2016 9:54:42 GMT -5
Hope, Pat Light is a good bullpen piece this year.
Fear, Kimbrel's increase in HR's last year is real, and compounded in Fenway. (also Uehara's)
A hope not directly related to baseball, Farrel has good health moving forward.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Feb 9, 2016 10:21:49 GMT -5
Hope - Brian Banister has indeed unlocked the keys to pitcher enlightenment, and his theories drive higher results across the franchise.
Fear - Papi meets the cliff. It would be awful to watch Papi endure a Jeter like final season. It would also severely impact their playoff chances as they continue running him out there for the dog and pony circuit.
Fear - Hanley is good at 1B, but the grind wears into his legs and back. I'm concerned about hamstring and back inuries being an ongoing story in 2016.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 9, 2016 10:29:52 GMT -5
Hope - Owens and Kelly combine for 200 IP
Fear - Bogaerts BABIP normalizes and noting else changes (power/discipline).
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 9, 2016 11:22:56 GMT -5
Hope: Brian Johnson is a legit #2 starter, putting up a 10-15 year career of 2.75-3.25 ERAs. I usually stay skeptical when we talk about a minor leaguer being greater than the sum of his parts, but when it comes to Johnson I think it is true AND I think the parts are better than he gets credit for. His fastball sits in the 90s and he's able to command and control it, and he is able to work his other stuff off of it. His curve is a legit second offering. His change has played up some, at least partly due to minor leaguers being sort of bad at dealing with pitchers who mix and control well, but it's an average third offering.
Fear: This one is harder, because most fears are just general downside risk rather than serious under-the-radar beliefs. On the major league roster, I'd say my fear is that Porcello's problem with runners on base doesn't prove correctable, and he remains a mid-to-low rotation guy rather than taking the step forward that his talent and peripherals indicate. As far as minor leaguers go, I want to see how Espinoza deals with adversity and what are turning into some pretty absurd expectations for him. Again though, I don't think that's under-the-radar by any stretch. I'm also afraid that we get a really cold April and Mookie Betts takes up skating and quickly discovers that he's a hockey savant and he decides to quit baseball.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 9, 2016 12:56:01 GMT -5
UTR Hope: each of Mookie, Pedey, Xander, Panda, Castillo, JBJ, Shaw, Young manage 15 HR, and that Papi and Hanley manage 30.
UTR Fear: none of Barnes, Light, Hembree get it together.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Feb 9, 2016 13:27:38 GMT -5
UTR fear..Vazquez & Swihart both succeed in early 2016 & DD trades one of them, then the one we keep gets hurt. UTR hope..The guys in Pawtucket, specifically the pitching & Sam Travis, push the envelope.
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Post by azblue on Feb 9, 2016 13:37:55 GMT -5
Hope - Owens and Kelly combine for 200 IP Fear - Bogaerts BABIP normalizes and noting else changes (power/discipline). Do you mean that you hope that Owens and Kelly pitch 200 innings EACH? As written, you are "hoping" that the two have a total of 200 innings between them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2016 15:03:33 GMT -5
Hope - Owens and Kelly combine for 200 IP Fear - Bogaerts BABIP normalizes and noting else changes (power/discipline). Do you mean that you hope that Owens and Kelly pitch 200 innings EACH? As written, you are "hoping" that the two have a total of 200 innings between them. Well, if you assume health and effectiveness for Price, Buchholz, Porcello, and Rodriguez, getting 200 IP out of that theoretical two-headed fifth starter would actually be really nice. The fifth and sixth starters innings-wise combined for 176 last year (Buchholz and Owens), and in 2014 and even 2013 the fifth and sixth starters didn't combine for 200 innings. Was with you that this didn't seem like that lofty a hope, but it kinda is after looking at it.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 9, 2016 15:44:57 GMT -5
People do know that under the radar refers to something that is not getting much consideration or airtime, right? Yeah, at least half of these are not close to under the radar. OK, I'll bite: Just how obscure does a circumstance have to be in order to be considered UTR?
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Post by ryantoworkman on Feb 9, 2016 15:56:39 GMT -5
Yeah, at least half of these are not close to under the radar. OK, I'll bite: Just how obscure does a circumstance have to be in order to be considered UTR? Not for me to answer, but I'll take a swing. Any items that haven't been discussed all off season is a good starting point.
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Post by ray88h66 on Feb 9, 2016 16:09:48 GMT -5
My hope is much more production out of the catcher's spot.
My fear is Dustin's decline on D wasn't a fluke and he keeps on the downward trend.
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2016 16:58:04 GMT -5
Yeah, at least half of these are not close to under the radar. OK, I'll bite: Just how obscure does a circumstance have to be in order to be considered UTR? My initial thought is that if it is mentioned in one of those generic team-by-team season previews by a national outlet, it's probably not under the radar. So, for instance, Hanley's transition to 1B or Castillo/Bradley's offense or Sandoval bouncing back (which just about every team preview will mention) certainly don't seem under the radar.
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