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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 9, 2016 17:04:09 GMT -5
UTR hope: Porcello becomes a true #2 or better and his advanced metrics show up in real time play
UTR fear: None of the candidates for the back of the rotation perform even competently in the bigs and the Porcello/Rodriguez don't take a step forward
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2016 17:10:16 GMT -5
Hopes: - Vazquez is ready by the start of Spring Training, starts the year on the 25-man roster, and is the starter by the end of the year, with his defense having a significant positive impact on the pitching staff's performance
- The Red Sox have a top-5 defense and have success as a pitching-and-defense-type team despite a good but not great offense
- Benintendi is their starting left fielder by the trade deadline
Fears: - Bogaerts (BABIP) and Betts (power) both regress offensively
- Pedroia's defense doesn't bounce back and he enters the decline phase of his career
- The pitching depth turns out to be illusory-- they have a bunch of names, but none of them turns out to be any good
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 9, 2016 17:59:09 GMT -5
Hope:
One of Matt Barnes, Pat Light and Heath Hembree can take a step forward to become a solid back of the bullpen arm.
Fear:
Carson Smith seriously injures his pitching arm. I'm scared to death by his mechanics.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 9, 2016 18:19:33 GMT -5
Hopes: - Vazquez is ready by the start of Spring Training, starts the year on the 25-man roster, and is the starter by the end of the year, with his defense having a significant positive impact on the pitching staff's performance
- The Red Sox have a top-5 defense and have success as a pitching-and-defense-type team despite a good but not great offense
- Benintendi is their starting left fielder by the trade deadline
Fears: - Bogaerts (BABIP) and Betts (power) both regress offensively
- Pedroia's defense doesn't bounce back and he enters the decline phase of his career
- The pitching depth turns out to be illusory-- they have a bunch of names, but none of them turns out to be any good
You HOPE this offense isn't great?!?!?! Whats wrong with you?
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Post by ramireja on Feb 9, 2016 18:20:42 GMT -5
Hope: One of Matt Barnes, Pat Light and Heath Hembree can take a step forward to become a solid back of the bullpen arm. Fear: Carson Smith seriously injures his pitching arm. I'm scared to death by his mechanics. +2 to both of these. I'm particularly crossing my fingers for Pat Light, lots of future impact reliever upside there.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 9, 2016 19:29:27 GMT -5
Hope: One of Matt Barnes, Pat Light and Heath Hembree can take a step forward to become a solid back of the bullpen arm. Fear: Carson Smith seriously injures his pitching arm. I'm scared to death by his mechanics. Same here. Terrific stuff, awesome results...wonky mechanics and a *lot* of sliders.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 9, 2016 22:36:02 GMT -5
Hopes: - Vazquez is ready by the start of Spring Training, starts the year on the 25-man roster, and is the starter by the end of the year, with his defense having a significant positive impact on the pitching staff's performance
- The Red Sox have a top-5 defense and have success as a pitching-and-defense-type team despite a good but not great offense
- Benintendi is their starting left fielder by the trade deadline
Fears: - Bogaerts (BABIP) and Betts (power) both regress offensively
- Pedroia's defense doesn't bounce back and he enters the decline phase of his career
- The pitching depth turns out to be illusory-- they have a bunch of names, but none of them turns out to be any good
You think it's actually realistic for Benintendi to be the starting LF by that time? Doesn't he have to skip 2-3 levels to get to that point? If he skips Salem I guess it would be more possible. I don't rule out the possibility of Benintendi being up sometime this year but I had his timeline of being here by August at the earliest.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 9, 2016 22:39:27 GMT -5
Hope: Brian Johnson is a legit #2 starter, putting up a 10-15 year career of 2.75-3.25 ERAs. I usually stay skeptical when we talk about a minor leaguer being greater than the sum of his parts, but when it comes to Johnson I think it is true AND I think the parts are better than he gets credit for. His fastball sits in the 90s and he's able to command and control it, and he is able to work his other stuff off of it. His curve is a legit second offering. His change has played up some, at least partly due to minor leaguers being sort of bad at dealing with pitchers who mix and control well, but it's an average third offering. Fear: This one is harder, because most fears are just general downside risk rather than serious under-the-radar beliefs. On the major league roster, I'd say my fear is that Porcello's problem with runners on base doesn't prove correctable, and he remains a mid-to-low rotation guy rather than taking the step forward that his talent and peripherals indicate. As far as minor leaguers go, I want to see how Espinoza deals with adversity and what are turning into some pretty absurd expectations for him. Again though, I don't think that's under-the-radar by any stretch. I'm also afraid that we get a really cold April and Mookie Betts takes up skating and quickly discovers that he's a hockey savant and he decides to quit baseball. I'm with you on Johnson. The guy is a pitching machine. The most underrated prospect in the Sox system. I see number 3 starter potential in him easily. Was arguing his curveball was a exceptional pitch in another thread earlier. I can see him taking over Joe Kelly's spot in the rotation by late May. I don't see Kelly lasting at the fifth spot. He has a hard time getting past the fifth inning in most games.
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2016 23:33:38 GMT -5
You think it's actually realistic for Benintendi to be the starting LF by that time? Doesn't he have to skip 2-3 levels to get to that point? If he skips Salem I guess it would be more possible. I don't rule out the possibility of Benintendi being up sometime this year but I had his timeline of being here by August at the earliest. Even if he starts in Salem, if he hits well, he's in Portland by mid-May, and if he rakes there for two months, he could well be up by July 31. Plus, there's a reason it's a hope.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 9, 2016 23:47:26 GMT -5
You think it's actually realistic for Benintendi to be the starting LF by that time? Doesn't he have to skip 2-3 levels to get to that point? If he skips Salem I guess it would be more possible. I don't rule out the possibility of Benintendi being up sometime this year but I had his timeline of being here by August at the earliest. Even if he starts in Salem, if he hits well, he's in Portland by mid-May, and if he rakes there for two months, he could well be up by July 31. Plus, there's a reason it's a hope. Yeah but Mookie is the best example of when a player rakes his way into a major league role. He was up by July but I don't believe he was a full-time starter by August. Plus Mookie started the year of 2014 in Portland. I hope he's up by 2016 too at some point. Edit-the trade deadline is August 1st this year, so you could win the argument on a side of a technicality haha.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 9, 2016 23:53:21 GMT -5
There's also a new baseball brain running this team too than in year's past. Something to look out for is to see if Dave promotes prospects even more quickly through the farm system, another really interesting aspect of the new Dombrowski era.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 10, 2016 2:08:45 GMT -5
Even if he starts in Salem, if he hits well, he's in Portland by mid-May, and if he rakes there for two months, he could well be up by July 31. Plus, there's a reason it's a hope. Yeah but Mookie is the best example of when a player rakes his way into a major league role. He was up by July but I don't believe he was a full-time starter by August. Plus Mookie started the year of 2014 in Portland. I hope he's up by 2016 too at some point. Edit-the trade deadline is August 1st this year, so you could win the argument on a side of a technicality haha. I can see jmei's hope: that Benintendi basically pulls a Conforto/Schwarber. I don't think it's particularly likely, but if he hits the cover off the ball (Mookie with more power), they maybe move Castillo +/- pitcher(s) at the deadline and put Benintendi in. Dunne's with you on Johnson. Let's hope we're all right and Rodriguez-Owens-Johnson form a three-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5-10 years. UTR minor league fear: Chavis is contact-hopeless. UTR minor league hope: Austin is Glori(o)us.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 10, 2016 6:24:03 GMT -5
Yeah but Mookie is the best example of when a player rakes his way into a major league role. He was up by July but I don't believe he was a full-time starter by August. Plus Mookie started the year of 2014 in Portland. I hope he's up by 2016 too at some point. Edit-the trade deadline is August 1st this year, so you could win the argument on a side of a technicality haha. I can see jmei's hope: that Benintendi basically pulls a Conforto/Schwarber. I don't think it's particularly likely, but if he hits the cover off the ball (Mookie with more power), they maybe move Castillo +/- pitcher(s) at the deadline and put Benintendi in. Dunne's with you on Johnson. Let's hope we're all right and Rodriguez-Owens-Johnson form a three-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5-10 years. UTR minor league fear: Chavis is contact-hopeless. UTR minor league hope: Austin is Glori(o)us. I'm very interested in how the Dodgers rotation does this season with 4 lefties to start in the rotation. I hate the argument of a rotation being too left handed. I just want the 5 best starters the team has, left or right handed. If that means Price, Owens, Johnson, and Rodriguez are all in the same rotation then all the better. I'm skeptical of Owens, as I've stated here many times but hopeful. If the Sox can trade Castillo it would be a miracle. I would love that. Pablo next. I heard that someone here is hopeful that Travis Shaw becomes Rizzo. If he does that, then I would be hopeful that they keep him at 3B. He would be so valuable there.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 10, 2016 6:39:52 GMT -5
My last UTR hopeful- the Sox pick one of the best overall players in this year's draft at number 12 like with the Phillies did with J.P.Crawford in the first round or what the nationals did with Lucas Giolito. Probably the last chance the Sox have of having a impact draft for a little while at least.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Feb 10, 2016 8:26:59 GMT -5
Great topic, Eric.
My UTR hope is that Ty Buttrey's first half of 2015 is the real him and the organization starts him in Portland because of a strong Spring.
My UTR fear has been mentioned (Chavis not hitting). My alternate UTR fear would be that Steven Wright never gets a chance, gets traded for a bucket of balls and becomes a legit 4/5 starter for the next 10 years for someone else.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Feb 10, 2016 10:25:05 GMT -5
I'm not going to tag the following as UTR because I haven't been keeping up with most of the conversations here over the break. But I'll play.
Hope: Swihart makes a leap forward. He came up before he was ready but held his own, especially later in the year. Looking for him to solidify his status as catcher of the future - he needs to improve behind the plate, and I believe his offensive success late last year was due at least in part to a high BABIP that may prove to be unsustainable. I'm looking for him to make incremental improvements in his peripheral offensive stats, hopefully leading to an offensive profile that can be successful long-term.
And that segues into my fear: IMO Swihart's development is very important because I'm not as high on Vazquez as many here. I understand that he's a excellent behind the dish. I also understand he's a liability on offense and I think his upside there is limited - and the fact that he just lost a developmental year to injury certainly doesn't help.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 10, 2016 10:41:18 GMT -5
UTR Hope: Wendell Rijo at 20 1/2 gets a little stronger and starts to hit for power and is a piece in a July trade UTR Fear: one DD acquisition will underperform and the lamentation will ruin my enjoyment of baseball.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 10, 2016 12:15:43 GMT -5
UTR (though not too under the radar) Hope: Our entire starting staff posts a collective ERA under 4.
UTR Fear: We trade a valuable prospect at the deadline for Rich Hill.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2016 12:22:09 GMT -5
UTR (though not too under the radar) Hope: Our entire starting staff posts a collective ERA under 4. UTR Fear: We trade a valuable prospect at the deadline for Rich Hill. Ugh.. Or that Rich Hill finishes top 3 in Cy Young voting.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 10, 2016 12:26:23 GMT -5
UTR (though not too under the radar) Hope: Our entire starting staff posts a collective ERA under 4. UTR Fear: We trade a valuable prospect at the deadline for Rich Hill. Ugh.. Or that Rich Hill finishes top 3 in Cy Young voting. Well that'd just be cruel.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2016 13:33:35 GMT -5
Yeah but Mookie is the best example of when a player rakes his way into a major league role. He was up by July but I don't believe he was a full-time starter by August. Plus Mookie started the year of 2014 in Portland. I hope he's up by 2016 too at some point. Edit-the trade deadline is August 1st this year, so you could win the argument on a side of a technicality haha. I can see jmei's hope: that Benintendi basically pulls a Conforto/Schwarber. I don't think it's particularly likely, but if he hits the cover off the ball (Mookie with more power), they maybe move Castillo +/- pitcher(s) at the deadline and put Benintendi in. Dunne's with you on Johnson. Let's hope we're all right and Rodriguez-Owens-Johnson form a three-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5-10 years.
UTR minor league fear: Chavis is contact-hopeless. UTR minor league hope: Austin is Glori(o)us. Let's hope for a four-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5 - 10 years (or at least David Price is around for 3 years if not 7.)
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Post by Guidas on Feb 10, 2016 15:10:15 GMT -5
My UTR is that Workman gains 2-4 MPH on his fastball post tommy John Surgery and all those mistakes he used to have at 92 are now swing and misses at 96.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 10, 2016 17:13:19 GMT -5
I can see jmei's hope: that Benintendi basically pulls a Conforto/Schwarber. I don't think it's particularly likely, but if he hits the cover off the ball (Mookie with more power), they maybe move Castillo +/- pitcher(s) at the deadline and put Benintendi in. Dunne's with you on Johnson. Let's hope we're all right and Rodriguez-Owens-Johnson form a three-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5-10 years.
UTR minor league fear: Chavis is contact-hopeless. UTR minor league hope: Austin is Glori(o)us. Let's hope for a four-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5 - 10 years (or at least David Price is around for 3 years if not 7.) Good point, though I left Price out because if he's as good as I hope, he's gone after 3 years.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2016 19:43:24 GMT -5
Let's hope for a four-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5 - 10 years (or at least David Price is around for 3 years if not 7.) Good point, though I left Price out because if he's as good as I hope, he's gone after 3 years. I hear you. In an ideal world Price wins 3 Cy Youngs over the next 3 years, leaves, the Sox get a great draft pick and spend the money on free agent Fernandez or something like that. But I'm an optimist. I'm hoping Price wins the Cy Young for 7 straight years with the Sox. I'm hopeful that if any pitcher can age gracefully he'll be one of those guys so if he does wind up with the Sox for 7 years, the Sox get a true leader/ace for that pitching staff for the duration of his time here. I do like that he shares his knowledge and I hope that rubs off on guys like Rodriguez, Owens, and Kelly. And if he's still around he could be good for a guy like Espinoza or Kopech.
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Post by down225 on Feb 11, 2016 2:09:06 GMT -5
You asked for it.
My ultimate UTR fear is the same as last year (and most of '14). Farrell will suck again as manager and won't be fired. The team will not play up to it's potential and will sit at .500 or worse throughout the year.
I go into this season hoping for better than a .500 team, and that Farrell will be fired.
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