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Under-the-Radar Hopes and Fears
gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 11, 2016 3:23:48 GMT -5
You asked for it. My ultimate UTR fear is the same as last year (and most of '14). Farrell will suck again as manager and won't be fired. The team will not play up to it's potential and will sit at .500 or worse throughout the year. I go into this season hoping for better than a .500 team, and that Farrell will be fired. Well, let's just see how he does with a healthy, deep, and possibly elite bullpen, a true Ace, one of the best defensive OF's in the game, as well as up the middle, one of the best running teams to crreate runs, to go with at least average offense (4th in 2015 with a weaker lineup). Plus, settled in and healthy catchers, Hanley and Panda, pitching and hitting coaches, an above average bench coach, and mandates from the new sheriff in town about certain things. Farrell may have had strategic issues, but he also had alot of personnel problems which contributed to them. UTR hope. John Farrell is successful in 2016 and beyond. We all win.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 11, 2016 6:16:41 GMT -5
You asked for it. My ultimate UTR fear is the same as last year (and most of '14). Farrell will suck again as manager and won't be fired. The team will not play up to it's potential and will sit at .500 or worse throughout the year. I go into this season hoping for better than a .500 team, and that Farrell will be fired. Well, let's just see how he does with a healthy, deep, and possibly elite bullpen, a true Ace, one of the best defensive OF's in the game, as well as up the middle, one of the best running teams to crreate runs, to go with at least average offense (4th in 2015 with a weaker lineup). Plus, settled in and healthy catchers, Hanley and Panda, pitching and hitting coaches, an above average bench coach, and mandates from the new sheriff in town about certain things. Farrell may have had strategic issues, but he also had alot of personnel problems which contributed to them. UTR hope. John Farrell is successful in 2016 and beyond. We all win. Well if Farrell does do poorly through the first half it will almost be set in stone that he'll be fired. This isn't "Dave Dombrowski's guy." So I think that fear can be washed away. The Sox could still stink somehow with a number of factors in 2016 but Farrell is playing for his job this season, no doubt. I think the Sox will be good enough for the division despite Farrell or any other factors however. I just see them as the most complete team in the division. Toronto will make it interesting with their ridiculous lineup though. Devin Travis is coming back who had a good rookie season and he's almost the forgotten man in that lineup now.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2016 7:35:44 GMT -5
The good news is that they are probably comfortable with Lovullo taking over if Farrell struggles. I really hope they push Farrell harder to use the advanced scouting and stats (or really just basic) and to stop using his gut when he thinks that Sandoval might hit a HR off of LHP while Young is on the bench or whatever other crazy decisions he might make. Or if Joe Kelly is at 95 pitches and just pitched to his 27th batter, do not let him pitch to the 28th and 29th in the 7th inning so that someone has to come in with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 11, 2016 12:59:53 GMT -5
UTR hopes: - Minor league: Jake Cosart takes a step forward or Karsten Whitson returns healthy to give the Sox some depth in the pitching (Christoper Acosta advance also a possibility) - Major league: Steven Wright becomes a weapon as the swing man (it's hard to find an under-the-radar anything on a team as talked-about as the Red Sox)
UTR fear: - Minor league: Benintendi runs into a hiccup in AA because his power & swing is based on not letting the ball get deep and upper-level breaking balls give him trouble - Major league: Pedroia's defense has fallen off a cliff, and he's taken a significant step back in on-field value
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Feb 11, 2016 15:31:56 GMT -5
UTR Hopes: Barnes/Light becoming 6th inning weapons Henry Ramos getting healthy and becoming post-hype sleeper
UTR Fears: Sandoval/TShaw/Holt don't cut the mustard and we have a hole at 3rd that leaves the offense reeling Moncada is revealed as a pretty good player, but his power upside and defense fade
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Post by soxfanindiana on Feb 11, 2016 16:17:47 GMT -5
Everybody here hopes that Xander hits for power and everybody here fears that Hanley can't play 1B. Everybody hopes that Espinoza gets to Salem by mid-season and everybody fears that Trey Ball continues with more of the same. I'd like to hear what hopes and fears folks have, if any, that aren't on everyone's mind and haven't been talked about much. My UTR fear is that Kimbrel turns out to be just another very good closer, but nothing special. We didn't give up all that talent to get, say, the 9th best closer in MLB. Now, having that instead of a top 2 or 3 closer is not going to kill the team. But it will cast a bad light on the F.O., because that trade was predicated on looking at Kimbrel's off-year (by his standards), analyzing the crap out of it, and concluding that it was a fluke rather than the start of a decline. If that analysis was wrong, that augurs poorly for the future. I had to think a bit to come up with a UTR hope, a rosy possibility no one is talking about. At first it felt manufactured, but the more I mull it over, the more legit it seems: Sandoval is actually good. As in 3.5 - 4.0 WAR good. Average defense, acceptable PAs from the right side, and a stroke ideal for Fenway. My under the radar hope is that Sam Travis goes to AAA and performs well. He reminds me of a right handed Mark Grace. Very good hitter with a high OBP, and good defense at first. Not exactly a masher but a guy who can hit .300 with a .360 OBP. Someone who can hit in either the 2 or 7-8-9 holes and provide very important insurance for Hanley if it goes south. My under the radar fear is that our age catches up with the back end of the bullpen and we need arms in the 6th or 7th inning at the trade deadline. I don't trust DD to proper evaluate prospects. JT
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 11, 2016 17:08:04 GMT -5
UTR hopes: - Minor league: Jake Cosart takes a step forward or Karsten Whitson returns healthy to give the Sox some depth in the pitching (Christoper Acosta advance also a possibility) - Major league: Steven Wright becomes a weapon as the swing man (it's hard to find an under-the-radar anything on a team as talked-about as the Red Sox) UTR fear: - Minor league: Benintendi runs into a hiccup in AA because his power & swing is based on not letting the ball get deep and upper-level breaking balls give him trouble - Major league: Pedroia's defense has fallen off a cliff, and he's taken a significant step back in on-field value For real, finding out what the hell happened to Karsten Whitson is more or less my only goal at Spring Training this year. Oh, and Blu Sushi. But Whitson is #2 on the list, for sure.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 11, 2016 17:40:19 GMT -5
UTR hopes: - Minor league: Jake Cosart takes a step forward or Karsten Whitson returns healthy to give the Sox some depth in the pitching (Christoper Acosta advance also a possibility) - Major league: Steven Wright becomes a weapon as the swing man (it's hard to find an under-the-radar anything on a team as talked-about as the Red Sox) UTR fear: - Minor league: Benintendi runs into a hiccup in AA because his power & swing is based on not letting the ball get deep and upper-level breaking balls give him trouble - Major league: Pedroia's defense has fallen off a cliff, and he's taken a significant step back in on-field value For real, finding out what the hell happened to Karsten Whitson is more or less my only goal at Spring Training this year. Oh, and Blu Sushi. But Whitson is #2 on the list, for sure. Seriously. I remember reading an interview with him somewhere and him talking about some chronic issue that he thought was associated with the shoulder impingement, but I don't recall. He had great stuff in HS, and his frosh year.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 11, 2016 19:51:30 GMT -5
Everybody here hopes that Xander hits for power and everybody here fears that Hanley can't play 1B. Everybody hopes that Espinoza gets to Salem by mid-season and everybody fears that Trey Ball continues with more of the same. I'd like to hear what hopes and fears folks have, if any, that aren't on everyone's mind and haven't been talked about much. My UTR fear is that Kimbrel turns out to be just another very good closer, but nothing special. We didn't give up all that talent to get, say, the 9th best closer in MLB. Now, having that instead of a top 2 or 3 closer is not going to kill the team. But it will cast a bad light on the F.O., because that trade was predicated on looking at Kimbrel's off-year (by his standards), analyzing the crap out of it, and concluding that it was a fluke rather than the start of a decline. If that analysis was wrong, that augurs poorly for the future. I had to think a bit to come up with a UTR hope, a rosy possibility no one is talking about. At first it felt manufactured, but the more I mull it over, the more legit it seems: Sandoval is actually good. As in 3.5 - 4.0 WAR good. Average defense, acceptable PAs from the right side, and a stroke ideal for Fenway. My under the radar hope is that Sam Travis goes to AAA and performs well. He reminds me of a right handed Mark Grace. Very good hitter with a high OBP, and good defense at first. Not exactly a masher but a guy who can hit .300 with a .360 OBP. Someone who can hit in either the 2 or 7-8-9 holes and provide very important insurance for Hanley if it goes south. My under the radar fear is that our age catches up with the back end of the bullpen and we need arms in the 6th or 7th inning at the trade deadline. I don't trust DD to proper evaluate prospects. JT Welcome to Soxprospects, JT. The "T" wouldn't happen stand for Travis would it? Alway good to have friends and family of prosepcts aboard. Why do you distrust DD's evaluation of prospects?
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Post by juanpena on Feb 11, 2016 20:20:32 GMT -5
Hope: Showing last year's struggles were due to injury, the out-of-options Edwin Escobar is healthy, earns a spot and pitches effectively.
Fear: Junichi Tazawa's struggles at the end of last season weren't because he's tired, but because he's cooked.
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Post by templeusox on Feb 12, 2016 11:40:48 GMT -5
Hope: Benintendi in majors by August.
Fear: Benintendi traded for left-handed bullpen help.
Also, I hope Dombrowski defers to Hazen on all Draft issues.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 12, 2016 14:14:34 GMT -5
My under the radar hope is that Sam Travis goes to AAA and performs well. He reminds me of a right handed Mark Grace. Very good hitter with a high OBP, and good defense at first. Not exactly a masher but a guy who can hit .300 with a .360 OBP. Someone who can hit in either the 2 or 7-8-9 holes and provide very important insurance for Hanley if it goes south. My under the radar fear is that our age catches up with the back end of the bullpen and we need arms in the 6th or 7th inning at the trade deadline. I don't trust DD to proper evaluate prospects. JT Welcome to Soxprospects, JT. The "T" wouldn't happen stand for Travis would it? Alway good to have friends and family of prosepcts aboard. Why do you distrust DD's evaluation of prospects? Because he traded a young Randy Johnson and also traded Devin Travis for garbage.
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Post by soxfanindiana on Feb 17, 2016 8:56:54 GMT -5
My under the radar hope is that Sam Travis goes to AAA and performs well. He reminds me of a right handed Mark Grace. Very good hitter with a high OBP, and good defense at first. Not exactly a masher but a guy who can hit .300 with a .360 OBP. Someone who can hit in either the 2 or 7-8-9 holes and provide very important insurance for Hanley if it goes south. My under the radar fear is that our age catches up with the back end of the bullpen and we need arms in the 6th or 7th inning at the trade deadline. I don't trust DD to proper evaluate prospects. JT Welcome to Soxprospects, JT. The "T" wouldn't happen stand for Travis would it? Alway good to have friends and family of prosepcts aboard. Why do you distrust DD's evaluation of prospects? HA! No the "T" does not stand for Travis. Regarding DD, I think he overvalues vets. Margot for Kimbrel was an awful trade. Not that I don't think Kimbrel is great, he is, but we probably could have gotten Chapman for less and not been tied into an aging reliever. He often traded solid prospects in Detroit to try and "get over the hump" only to consistently fall short. Now Detroit's farm is one of the worst in baseball and after living through a terrible farm for the Sox for years, I have no desire to go back to that. There's nothing worse than having a mediocre year and not seeing any hope down on the farm. Just my 2 cents.
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Post by kman22 on Feb 17, 2016 12:52:13 GMT -5
Welcome to Soxprospects, JT. The "T" wouldn't happen stand for Travis would it? Alway good to have friends and family of prosepcts aboard. Why do you distrust DD's evaluation of prospects? HA! No the "T" does not stand for Travis. Regarding DD, I think he overvalues vets. Margot for Kimbrel was an awful trade. Not that I don't think Kimbrel is great, he is, but we probably could have gotten Chapman for less and not been tied into an aging reliever. He often traded solid prospects in Detroit to try and "get over the hump" only to consistently fall short. Now Detroit's farm is one of the worst in baseball and after living through a terrible farm for the Sox for years, I have no desire to go back to that. There's nothing worse than having a mediocre year and not seeing any hope down on the farm. Just my 2 cents. Kimbrel is 3 months younger than Chapman, without the off the field baggage and with 3x the team control. Just FWIW.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 17, 2016 13:10:14 GMT -5
DD also has a different focus in Detroit. His dying owner wanted him to do what he could to win now. I'll think he'll have a much more balanced approach in Boston. He oversaw some very good farm systems in Miami and Montreal. Every organization is a little different, let's just see how it goes.
As for Margot, see kman22's comment. Also, he held onto the gems of the system. Perhaps he felt Margot was expendable because of Betts, Bradley, Castillo and Benintendi knocking on the door. Then there's Basabe a little further away. He might have also, along with other sox evaluators, not been so high on Margot. He wasn't too high on Maybin and turned him and another prospect he wasn't that high on into Miguel Cabrera (I suppose he could have been high on them, but neither has performed at the ML level).
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 21, 2016 7:31:24 GMT -5
He wasn't too high on Maybin and turned him and another prospect he wasn't that high on into Miguel Cabrera (I suppose he could have been high on them, but neither has performed at the ML level). The other prospect was Andrew Miller (who has performed at the major league level) but the trade was still the best trade in Detroit baseball history. Burke Badenhop was also sent to Miami in that deal. How sweet it is to be part of a Miami fire sale. At least the Sox benefited from one Miami fire sale (although giving up Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez at the time was a costly fire sale). Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez you're next in a couple of years.
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Post by cologneredsox on Feb 21, 2016 8:06:43 GMT -5
I can see jmei's hope: that Benintendi basically pulls a Conforto/Schwarber. I don't think it's particularly likely, but if he hits the cover off the ball (Mookie with more power), they maybe move Castillo +/- pitcher(s) at the deadline and put Benintendi in. Dunne's with you on Johnson. Let's hope we're all right and Rodriguez-Owens-Johnson form a three-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5-10 years.
UTR minor league fear: Chavis is contact-hopeless. UTR minor league hope: Austin is Glori(o)us. Let's hope for a four-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5 - 10 years (or at least David Price is around for 3 years if not 7.) What about Espinoza and maybe Kopech?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2016 10:39:42 GMT -5
So if we're talking about "under the radar" fears, mine is that this organization is kind of mess right now, and that it's only going to take a couple months of sub-.500 baseball for the wheels to fall off. I'm worried that this team doesn't really have a cohesive, unifying philosophy or decision making process anymore, and if the team looks mediocre on Memorial Day, it'll be nothing but manager controversies and stories about how Dombrowski listens to Frank Wren over Hazen and his people. Before long, guys like Hazen and Romero are working for other teams, and someone on this board is trying to defend Moncada for Matt Kemp because hey, at least we still have Espinoza and Moncada was blocked anyway.
Under the radar hopes? It's the start of spring training, there are none. Any and all hopes are flying high.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 21, 2016 11:53:51 GMT -5
Let's hope for a four-headed lefty monster to anchor the staff for the next 5 - 10 years (or at least David Price is around for 3 years if not 7.) What about Espinoza and maybe Kopech? Price, Espinoza, Rodriguez, Owens, and Kopech works for me, although who knows if Price will still be around after 2018. By time Kopech and Espinoza would be ready Buchholz should be long gone and Porcello will be phasing out. Johnson should be in the mix, and who knows if the Sox top draft pick will be a fast track starting pitcher?
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Post by larrycook on Feb 22, 2016 0:50:41 GMT -5
I am kind of hoping we have pitching in place so that when price exercises his out clause after year three, we are not hurt too much.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Feb 22, 2016 9:17:46 GMT -5
I am kind of hoping we have pitching in place so that when price exercises his out clause after year three, we are not hurt too much. Doesn't the freed up $30M+ mitigate any fear of losing a 33 year old pitcher? The replacement does not have to come from in-house
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2016 9:34:17 GMT -5
I am kind of hoping we have pitching in place so that when price exercises his out clause after year three, we are not hurt too much. Doesn't the freed up $30M+ mitigate any fear of losing a 33 year old pitcher? The replacement does not have to come from in-house Yes and no. Think of the Yankees when Sabathia first opted out. Their young pitching had gone sideways (Hughes and Chamberlain specifically) so the rotation was a mess. And while they had the money available from the opt-out they were in a position where they needed a starting pitcher so badly they needed (or at least felt they needed) to re-sign him. It would be nice to think of retaining Price as a luxury that, if it gets too expensive, the Red Sox can back out of. So if, say, Porcello and Rodriguez take step forwards and Espinoza is knocking down the door then they won't feel compelled to sign a 33-year old to a seven-year deal.
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Post by jrffam05 on Feb 22, 2016 10:08:51 GMT -5
Price not opting out of his contract is another UTR fear of mine.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 22, 2016 10:13:06 GMT -5
Price not opting out of his contract is another UTR fear of mine. If he ages like Curt Schilling, it might be alright. Price reminds me a bit of Schilling in that he doesn't back down from attention, his control and command are elite, and they truly are "horses" at the top of the rotation. If Price opts out, the Sox can surely make use of the money - I hear Fernandez might be available, but I think Price might be the one guy who bucks the trend of pitchers collapsing or declining drastically as they hit their mid 30s - as it was Schilling's last great year was in 2004, when he was 37 years old, and Price strikes me as a guy in better shape than Schilling.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2016 11:27:37 GMT -5
I know a lot can change quickly with salaries, but at this point in time, I find it hard to believe that Price would get significantly more than 4/127 that he'd be owed as a 33 year old. If he didn't decline much, he might get an extra year. Is that worth opting out if he likes Boston and has to compete for dollars with guys like Kershaw, Fernandez, Harper, Heyward, Harvey, Machado, McCutchen, and many others?
I think salaries would have to continue to rise exponentially without slowing down for it to be very likely that he opts out.
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