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Swihart vs. Vazquez vs. Hanigan
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 11, 2016 18:11:04 GMT -5
So, let's summarize the current situation:
- Steamer projects Vazquez and Swihart to hit about equally well in the majors this year - Despite the very SSS, Swihart's hitting has been exactly in line with that projection so far - Again SSS, but it seems AAA pitching is not challenging Vazquez at the plate at all currently - Meanwhile, Swihart's receiving has been quite poor.
I know there are a lot of people here who don't want to hear it, but it seems clear to me that the sensible thing to do is send Swihart down to Pawtucket in a week or two.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,307
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Post by radiohix on Apr 11, 2016 18:48:54 GMT -5
So, let's summarize the current situation: - Steamer projects Vazquez and Swihart to hit about equally well in the majors this year - Despite the very SSS, Swihart's hitting has been exactly in line with that projection so far - Again SSS, but it seems AAA pitching is not challenging Vazquez at the plate at all currently - Meanwhile, Swihart's receiving has been quite poor. I know there are a lot of people here who don't want to hear it, but it seems clear to me that the sensible thing to do is send Swihart down to Pawtucket in a week or two. I totally agree with this line of thinking. IMO, it's only the medicals on CV that explain why they're keeping him down in Pawtucket.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2016 18:54:17 GMT -5
I'd first see if the Rangers would be interested in trading for Hanigan.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 11, 2016 19:14:56 GMT -5
I'd first see if the Rangers would be interested in trading for Hanigan. They can feel free to call us and make a great offer, but I wouldn't actively shop Hanigan at this point. The question in my mind is, what's the best way for Swihart to polish his defense - starting in Pawtucket or backing up CV in Boston? I have no clue about player development but I suspect it's the former. So I would want to give Swihart a couple more months there, and then see who wants Hanigan at the trade deadline. (Also in case CV does have some sort of medical setback, the depth is really valuable.)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 11, 2016 22:54:37 GMT -5
So, let's summarize the current situation: - Steamer projects Vazquez and Swihart to hit about equally well in the majors this year - Despite the very SSS, Swihart's hitting has been exactly in line with that projection so far - Again SSS, but it seems AAA pitching is not challenging Vazquez at the plate at all currently - Meanwhile, Swihart's receiving has been quite poor. I know there are a lot of people here who don't want to hear it, but it seems clear to me that the sensible thing to do is send Swihart down to Pawtucket in a week or two. I totally agree with this line of thinking. IMO, it's only the medicals on CV that explain why they're keeping him down in Pawtucket. They could have bought him extra rehab time in XST and opted to start him in Pawtucket. I strongly believe that the plan is to have him resume his starter's job as soon as they feel he's ready.* His season so far: Caught 9, caught 7, DH, caught 9. I think we see him as soon as he's caught 9 innings four days in a row. *It will be fun to see Nick Cafardo's head explode when that happens. But if he writes an article criticizing the move, I will absolutely do what I've been wanting to do for a long time: write the Globe editors and tell them he's stealing their money. And I think I'll ask here for co-signers.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 12, 2016 0:28:00 GMT -5
I'd first see if the Rangers would be interested in trading for Hanigan. They can feel free to call us and make a great offer, but I wouldn't actively shop Hanigan at this point. The question in my mind is, what's the best way for Swihart to polish his defense - starting in Pawtucket or backing up CV in Boston? I have no clue about player development but I suspect it's the former. So I would want to give Swihart a couple more months there, and then see who wants Hanigan at the trade deadline. (Also in case CV does have some sort of medical setback, the depth is really valuable.) It's not even clear that Swihart is better than Hanigan right now, so the odds of losing a game because Hanigan is your backup catcher for a few months instead of Swihart are tiny. Therefore, it's a good move to send Swihart back to AAA to let him work on his game.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 3:23:06 GMT -5
It's not even clear that Swihart is better than Hanigan right now, so the odds of losing a game because Hanigan is your backup catcher for a few months instead of Swihart are tiny. Absolutely, the advantages Swihart has with the bat are at least offset by the advantages Hanigan has with the glove. And in a non-Farell world, even if their overall production were the same, you might prefer the glove-first backup because of the scenario where you pinch-hit for Vazquez to take the lead and then put in the backup catcher to hold on to that lead.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 3:44:53 GMT -5
So, let's summarize the current situation: - Steamer projects Vazquez and Swihart to hit about equally well in the majors this year - Despite the very SSS, Swihart's hitting has been exactly in line with that projection so far - Again SSS, but it seems AAA pitching is not challenging Vazquez at the plate at all currently - Meanwhile, Swihart's receiving has been quite poor. I know there are a lot of people here who don't want to hear it, but it seems clear to me that the sensible thing to do is send Swihart down to Pawtucket in a week or two. I would be very surprised if Swihart was not a much better hitter then Vazquez in the majors this year. I would keep Swihart in majors. Let him watch and learn from one of the best on a daily basis in Vazquez. I would split playing time. For me Vazquez and Swihart is a better pairing then Vazquez and Hanigan. I also think Swihart has made good progress behind the plate since last year.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 4:19:27 GMT -5
I would be very surprised if Swihart was not a much better hitter then Vazquez in the majors this year. I would keep Swihart in majors. Let him watch and learn from one of the best on a daily basis in Vazquez. I would split playing time. For me Vazquez and Swihart is a better pairing then Vazquez and Hanigan. I also think Swihart has made good progress behind the plate since last year. I mean, sure, it's possible Swihart has a breakout year with the bat and in that scenario Vazquez and Swihart might well be the best tandem. The problem is that you can't bunker Hanigan in AAA (he's out of options and somewhere between 20 and 29 teams would claim him on waivers). I just really like the depth of having 3 starting-caliber catchers and think it would be prudent to keep it until the trade deadline, especially given Vazquez' recent injury.
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 12, 2016 9:03:19 GMT -5
I would be very surprised if Swihart was not a much better hitter then Vazquez in the majors this year. I would keep Swihart in majors. Let him watch and learn from one of the best on a daily basis in Vazquez. I would split playing time. For me Vazquez and Swihart is a better pairing then Vazquez and Hanigan. I also think Swihart has made good progress behind the plate since last year. I mean, sure, it's possible Swihart has a breakout year with the bat and in that scenario Vazquez and Swihart might well be the best tandem. The problem is that you can't bunker Hanigan in AAA (he's out of options and somewhere between 20 and 29 teams would claim him on waivers). I just really like the depth of having 3 starting-caliber catchers and think it would be prudent to keep it until the trade deadline, especially given Vazquez' recent injury. Why is significant development a necessary qualifier for Swihart to be a much better hitter than Vazquez? Their career wRC+ marks are 91 and 70 respectively. Swihart is a year and a half younger, a switch-hitter, and scouted by consensus to have offensive upside. I'd eat my hat if Vazquez were a comparable offensive player to Swihart this season. I'm agnostic. Swihart's lack of apparent defensive development is a concern. But if you lay out the pros and cons, between offense, defense, development, and roster management, I don't think there's a course of action that is meaningfully smarter than the rest. The Sox have bigger fish to fry than catcher depth.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 9:53:27 GMT -5
And if you ask the pitchers their opinion................ Yeah a no-brainer. I've always expected Vazquez to be the full time starter once he's completely back.
There is almost no possible way for a catcher who seems to be about average overall (or slightly below) right now in Swihart to outweigh an elite catcher glove (and game caller) no matter what his bat is like.
The biggest advantage Swihart has over Vazquez and pretty much every catcher is his baserunning.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 9:55:20 GMT -5
Why is significant development a necessary qualifier for Swihart to be a much better hitter than Vazquez? Their career wRC+ marks are 91 and 70 respectively. Indeed, yet Steamer projects them for 87 and 88 wRC+ respectively. Why is that so? Quite simple, really. Swihart's line has been fueled by an above-average BABIP, while Vazquez has had a slightly below-average BABIP but significantly better peripherals. BABIP contains more random variation, so you regress it to the mean more than the faster-stabilising BB% and K%. | BB% | K% | BABIP | wRC+ | Vazquez 2014 | 9.5% | 16.4% | .283 | 70 | Vazquez Steamer | 8.1% | 16.7% | .299 | 87 | Swihart 2015 | 5.8% | 24.9% | .359 | 91 | Swihart Steamer | 6.3% | 20.0% | .323 | 88 |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 10:09:46 GMT -5
Swithart has improved a lot behind the plate defensively. He's very young to be in the majors and is on an upward trajectory. His work behind the plate blocking balls had looked so much better and he's a lot quieter receiving balls. Is he as good as Vazquez? No but he's improving quite and bit and could turn into an above average to good receiver. Which brings us to the offense..
I'm not sure what break out with the bat means. He broke out pretty well in the second half last year if I remember correctly. He hasn't hit for any power early this year but he's looked good overall at the plate. His reduced K rated and increase walk rate is nice but it's early so we will see how it goes.
It's a good spot to be in... I like them both and I think Vasquez could be a decent bat whereas Swithart could be a special bat. I just don't understand why Swithart has everyone calling for his job. The early going things have been positive. Unless people are just all geeked up about Vasquez starting hot vs AAA pitching
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 10:17:47 GMT -5
Swithart has improved a lot behind the plate defensively. He's very young to be in the majors and is on an upward trajectory. His work behind the plate blocking balls had looked so much better and he's a lot quieter receiving balls. Is he as good as Vazquez? No but he's improving quite and bit and could turn into an above average to good receiver. Which brings us to the offense.. I'm not sure what break out with the bat means. He broke out pretty well in the second half last year if I remember correctly. He hasn't hit for any power early this year but he's looked good overall at the plate. His reduced K rated and increase walk rate is nice but it's early so we will see how it goes. It's a good spot to be in... I like them both and I think Vasquez could be a decent bat whereas Swithart could be a special bat. I just don't understand why Swithart has everyone calling for his job. The early going things have been positive. Unless people are just all geeked up about Vasquez starting hot vs AAA pitching It's the pitch calling and framing. Napoli won the game for Cleveland on the 5th strike thrown to him in that at bat. He took strikes 3 and 4 which Swihart stabbed at. All the pitching would be better with Vazquez catching.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 10:23:28 GMT -5
I'm not going to argue Vasquez isn't stronger there but you can't say that Buccholz or Kelly's starts would have been affected by Vasquez or Price yesterday or Kimbrel. Those guys weren't affected by pitch framing or game calling. They just were bad.
But this lineup can afford a weak bat behind the plate right now and anything to help the staff is a huge plus. Both their ceilings are top notch. I'd be careful not to destroy Switharts value but telling the league he's not good enough to catch
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 10:23:35 GMT -5
I just don't understand why Swithart has everyone calling for his job. It's not his job. Vazquez was the announced starter for 2015, Swihart is just the injury fill-in.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 10:24:52 GMT -5
Fair enough
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 12, 2016 10:28:28 GMT -5
I've said this before, but if we didn't have so many injuries at catcher last year, would Swihart be considered the starting catcher today? I'm guessing not.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 10:36:39 GMT -5
That's irrelevant...
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 12, 2016 10:38:27 GMT -5
It's not, if there wasn't such a dire need at catcher, Swihart would have gotten called up in September and would probably be in AAA to start the season. The injury to Vazquez flips this, but I still think that Vazquez has little to learn in the minors while Swihart still has some cooking to do.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 10:44:41 GMT -5
No it is... What the perception at this time last year was makes zero differnece. Swithart is a major league catcher at this point. The only question when Vasquez is ready is who's better. How much time Swithart would have gotten last year is meaningless.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 10:50:20 GMT -5
The best thing may be a Hannigan injury when Vasquez is ready or maybe as insane as it is carry 3 catchers for a little bit and get rid of Sandoval. Swithart or Vasquez may be the ticket this team needs to get a starter at the trade deadline. Sending Swithart down may hurt his trade value.
Castillo, young, shaw and Holt all provide enough flexibility to get you thru games and if there is an injury u can bring someone up from AAA for that next game. In some ways it may work better as they can pinch hit for the catchers instead of your better hitters like Shaw just to get a guy At bats.
Yes I know that's crazy and would never happen but it's more useful that Sandoval
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Post by jclmontana on Apr 12, 2016 11:09:32 GMT -5
I am of the opinion that a Vasquez/ Hanigan tandem, along with a Swihart trade for excellent assets, is the best value move for the Sox. However, the last six games mean nothing; they don't change the calculus at all. Period. Six games does not move the needle on Vasquez 's medicals, offensive upside, nor Swihart's defensive issues. It is now as it was.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2016 11:18:09 GMT -5
I would be very surprised if Swihart was not a much better hitter then Vazquez in the majors this year. I would keep Swihart in majors. Let him watch and learn from one of the best on a daily basis in Vazquez. I would split playing time. For me Vazquez and Swihart is a better pairing then Vazquez and Hanigan. I also think Swihart has made good progress behind the plate since last year. I mean, sure, it's possible Swihart has a breakout year with the bat and in that scenario Vazquez and Swihart might well be the best tandem. The problem is that you can't bunker Hanigan in AAA (he's out of options and somewhere between 20 and 29 teams would claim him on waivers). I just really like the depth of having 3 starting-caliber catchers and think it would be prudent to keep it until the trade deadline, especially given Vazquez' recent injury. I'm not entirely sure where I fall on this situation, but I agree that depth is a huge consideration. That's accentuated by the mess last year (which is not just a reminder, but also has the residual effect of Vazquez's recovery), and the lack of quality, or even passable, catching in MLB nowadays.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 12, 2016 11:28:51 GMT -5
No it is... What the perception at this time last year was makes zero differnece. Swithart is a major league catcher at this point. The only question when Vasquez is ready is who's better. How much time Swithart would have gotten last year is meaningless. If you think Swihart is the better option than a healthy Vazquez that is fine, but don't lump me in with that statement. Playing bad defense in the majors does not make you a major league catcher, if it did Ryan Lavarnway would not have been DFA'd. If there wasn't a better option I'd be ok with Swihart being rushed to the majors, but once Vazquez is healthy it stops making sense to me.
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