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Swihart vs. Vazquez vs. Hanigan
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 11:38:41 GMT -5
I am of the opinion that a Vasquez/ Hanigan tandem, along with a Swihart trade for excellent assets, is the best value move for the Sox. However, the last six games mean nothing; they don't change the calculus at all. Period. Six games does not move the needle on Vasquez 's medicals, offensive upside, nor Swihart's defensive issues. It is now as it was. Right, but the needle was always starting at the point where Vazquez is the starter when he's healthy enough to play enough games. We're getting closer to that point.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 11:54:09 GMT -5
You're not being lumped in with anything and let's not act like Swithart is a train wreck behind the plate. He needs to improve for sure and even with his poor defense he was a 1.5 WAR player in 84 games last year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 12:07:58 GMT -5
By the way I don't know who's the better option I just think the demand for Vasquez is over rated.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 12:54:43 GMT -5
I would be very surprised if Swihart was not a much better hitter then Vazquez in the majors this year. I would keep Swihart in majors. Let him watch and learn from one of the best on a daily basis in Vazquez. I would split playing time. For me Vazquez and Swihart is a better pairing then Vazquez and Hanigan. I also think Swihart has made good progress behind the plate since last year. I mean, sure, it's possible Swihart has a breakout year with the bat and in that scenario Vazquez and Swihart might well be the best tandem. The problem is that you can't bunker Hanigan in AAA (he's out of options and somewhere between 20 and 29 teams would claim him on waivers). I just really like the depth of having 3 starting-caliber catchers and think it would be prudent to keep it until the trade deadline, especially given Vazquez' recent injury. No breakout needed, right now I feel Swihart bat is a lot better, his upside could make him one of the best hitting catchers in Baseball. I get depth but I'm not going to stunt Swihart development just to keep a third catcher. Heck like others have said dump Sandoval and keep 3 catchers then. That's why I split time with Swihart and Vazquez. You wanna make sure you keep Vazquez healthy. Also what do you think you can get for Hanigan?
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 13:03:56 GMT -5
No breakout needed, right now I feel Swihart bat is a lot better, OK, great, but on the one hand there's your feeling and on the other hand there's the cold hard fact that Swihart struck out 25% of the time last season while hitting only 5 HRs. It just so happens that I put more stock in the latter. See, you think having Swihart start (almost) every day in Pawtucket would stunt his development. I think it would be a great opportunity for him to really focus on his defense and get that polished up. I have stated that I am no expert and am simply guessing in this regard, would you care to share your credentials?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 12, 2016 13:05:15 GMT -5
By the way I don't know who's the better option I just think the demand for Vasquez is over rated. You're not the only one who feels this way. I totally get why there's a demand for Vazquez and his pitch framing (I do think pitch framing is important but I sometimes feel like the affect is overstated somewhat). I still feel that Swihart's defense will improve over time and he'll be better offensively than Vazquez. I think Swihart has a higher offensive ceiling by a good deal and I think he'll become a better receiver with more experience. I think Vazquez will be a future gold glover and will likely be a #9 type hitter, although he won't be an automatic out. I'd rather give Swihart the long-term opportunity to become the player I think he'll become, but I think the Sox will call up Vazquez pretty soon, especially if the rotation falters, and I can see him being matched up with Buchholz and Kelly, and probably with Wright if he remains in the rotation. My gut tells me that Swihart should be the guy the Sox invest in long-term, but my gut has been wrong plenty and I totally get the reasons why most everybody prefers Vazquez and his defense. I think Vazquez's floor is more compelling than Swihart's, but Swihart's ceiling is more compelling than Vazquez's. I think Swihart has pretty good trade value, but with Vazquez coming off an injury, I think he has lesser trade value. If he comes up and plays a good deal, I would think his trade value would shoot up. I bring this up because sooner or later the Sox might be forced into a deal for a #2/#3 type starter and will have to make the trade without dealing guys that the Sox need down the road - I'm speaking of Moncada, Benintendi, Devers, Espinoza, and Travis. The Sox have two starting catchers on their roster and can't send down Hanigan or they'd lose him, so at some point either Swihart loses value by changing positions or they'll need to make a deal. Maybe the best way now (temporarily) to deal with this is to let Swihart work on his defense at Pawtucket and give Vazquez a chance to help stabilize the pitching and build his trade value so that when July rolls around, and if the Sox need to make a deal, they have two very valuable assets.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 13:06:45 GMT -5
Swithart has improved a lot behind the plate defensively. He's very young to be in the majors and is on an upward trajectory. His work behind the plate blocking balls had looked so much better and he's a lot quieter receiving balls. Is he as good as Vazquez? No but he's improving quite and bit and could turn into an above average to good receiver. Which brings us to the offense.. I'm not sure what break out with the bat means. He broke out pretty well in the second half last year if I remember correctly. He hasn't hit for any power early this year but he's looked good overall at the plate. His reduced K rated and increase walk rate is nice but it's early so we will see how it goes. It's a good spot to be in... I like them both and I think Vasquez could be a decent bat whereas Swithart could be a special bat. I just don't understand why Swithart has everyone calling for his job. The early going things have been positive. Unless people are just all geeked up about Vasquez starting hot vs AAA pitching It's the pitch calling and framing. Napoli won the game for Cleveland on the 5th strike thrown to him in that at bat. He took strikes 3 and 4 which Swihart stabbed at. All the pitching would be better with Vazquez catching. I think your overvaluing pitch calling and framing. Swihart has come a long way since last year. Sure Vazquez is better, but a high total would be what 2-3 war over full season over Swihart? I just think people blaming Swihart for our pitching so far is crazy. Umps have been really bad so far this year, which I blame on weather and rust. Are you 100% that Vazquez behind plate means Naploi doesn't hit HR? If so I think that's wishful thinking.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 13:23:21 GMT -5
No breakout needed, right now I feel Swihart bat is a lot better, OK, great, but on the one hand there's your feeling and on the other hand there's the cold hard fact that Swihart struck out 25% of the time last season while hitting only 5 HRs. It just so happens that I put more stock in the latter. See, you think having Swihart start (almost) every day in Pawtucket would stunt his development. I think it would be a great opportunity for him to really focus on his defense and get that polished up. I have stated that I am no expert and am simply guessing in this regard, would you care to share your credentials? We are all just guessing what we think is best! As many have said before we have better coaching in majors and like I said before learning every day from Vazquez would seem to be as good as it could get. At this point I feel Swihart has the basics down, he just needs refinement and to learn the little things, things that i feel are much easier to learn in majors with one of best defensive catchers in Baseball to watch day in and day out. As to Swihart strikeout rate he was a rookie and his minor league stats are much better. I would expect that to go down. You can see that he is working on drawing walks this year already. I wouldn't read too much into a small sample size of a rookie while over looking his minor league stats.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 13:35:30 GMT -5
By the way I don't know who's the better option I just think the demand for Vasquez is over rated. I think it's not nearly as loud as it should be.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 13:40:29 GMT -5
It's the pitch calling and framing. Napoli won the game for Cleveland on the 5th strike thrown to him in that at bat. He took strikes 3 and 4 which Swihart stabbed at. All the pitching would be better with Vazquez catching. I think your overvaluing pitch calling and framing. Swihart has come a long way since last year. Sure Vazquez is better, but a high total would be what 2-3 war over full season over Swihart? I just think people blaming Swihart for our pitching so far is crazy. Umps have been really bad so far this year, which I blame on weather and rust. Are you 100% that Vazquez behind plate means Naploi doesn't hit HR? If so I think that's wishful thinking. It's practically a certainty that Vazquez' framing would save runs and games over the course of the season. It may not have happened differently with Napoli, but that was just one simple example in recent memory. Just a single stolen strike or blown ball can change so much about a game. How many times do you see a pitcher not get a call with 2 strikes and 2 outs and then 20 pitches and 4 runs later he's out of the game and we're into the bullpen, which puts stress on the entire pitching staff for multiple games. You get that 3rd strike call and the entire game is different. Even one pitch can make a huge difference. And catchers catch 150 pitches a game. They have so much more influence on games just by catching the ball than they can possibly have with a bat.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 14:21:40 GMT -5
I think your overvaluing pitch calling and framing. Swihart has come a long way since last year. Sure Vazquez is better, but a high total would be what 2-3 war over full season over Swihart? I just think people blaming Swihart for our pitching so far is crazy. Umps have been really bad so far this year, which I blame on weather and rust. Are you 100% that Vazquez behind plate means Naploi doesn't hit HR? If so I think that's wishful thinking. It's practically a certainty that Vazquez' framing would save runs and games over the course of the season. It may not have happened differently with Napoli, but that was just one simple example in recent memory. Just a single stolen strike or blown ball can change so much about a game. How many times do you see a pitcher not get a call with 2 strikes and 2 outs and then 20 pitches and 4 runs later he's out of the game and we're into the bullpen, which puts stress on the entire pitching staff for multiple games. You get that 3rd strike call and the entire game is different. Even one pitch can make a huge difference. And catchers catch 150 pitches a game. They have so much more influence on games just by catching the ball than they can possibly have with a bat. I agree he would save runs and games over a season, but how many runs and how many games? I just feel some think his impact would be a lot more then it is. There are always a few calls that can change a game, but the percentage of those plays that are a close strike that Vazquez can get a strike on that Swihart can't is very small.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 15:10:41 GMT -5
Swihart's offensive potential in my opinion is almost equivalent to Vasquez's defensive potential. In a rookie year that Swihart was not even suppose to touch the majors, he not only learned on the go but led ALL MLB catchers after the All-Star break with a .303/.353/.452/ slash line. His ops of .805 was much better than the position average of .682. Even this year he's shown improved plate discipline (albeit over a small sample size) with 4 walks (leads the Sox) in the early going. Swihart does have the potential to be one of if not the best hitting catcher in baseball even without a ton of power.
Vasquez is a defensive wizard. His pitch framing WILL steal strikes which add up over the course of outings and make a huge impact long term. He threw out over 50% of base stealing (and as Red Sox fans, we don't usually see that high of a percent). He has a way of improving a pitching staff from his intangibles and receiving abilities. Again, the potential to be the best defensive catcher in baseball one day soon.
Some of this comes down to preference for what you believe a catcher should deliver to the team. For me, I think you have to compare the other two aspects to get a clear picture.
Swihart has definitely had his struggles defensively. Although he's gotten better, he still has the habit of stabbing at pitches and some passed balls that he should really get. In limited attempts he's shown good arm strength (I know Rajai Davis was safe at third but still a good throw) and improved blocking overall. For me, I believe his athletic ability gives him a high ceiling here. Remember, Swihart did not become a true catcher until he was drafted. He is still learning the position. One note people are ignoring is that Swihart's athletic ability to get in front of wild pitches has already saved runs this year. Swihart has more athleticism than Vasquez and in my opinion has a greater range for blocking.
Vasquez has gotten off to a hot start hitting in AAA. However, I see an average slash line of about .245/.300/.350 for Vasquez. He showed in his brief stint the ability to hit the gaps. But the ceiling his just is not very high. Where Swihart has a higher ceiling defensively, Vasquez offensively does not in my opinion.
Last note, Swihart offers much, much more on the base paths. Swihart can occasionally stretch a double into a triple (I was impressed when he did it against the Mets last year) and can score from first on certain hits. Vasquez cannot.
I would personally keep both as long as I can and catch them on roughly a 7:4 ratio favoring Swihart, but Swihart is my long term guy. His ceiling overall is just too high. And we need as much talent and offense as we can get.
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Apr 12, 2016 15:16:29 GMT -5
I tend to agree with umassgrad2005 here. I think Hanigan needs to be the odd man out. Vazquez is certainly a ML starter...but I think Swihart is as well. Remember, Swihart should have played all of last yr in AAA. Injuries threw him to the wolves. After a disastrous start, he rebounded nicely. I don't think it's out of the question to say Swihart will be a superior hitter to Vazquez. I think Swihart is still relatively new to the position of catcher and will continue to improve behind the plate. Pitch framing and calling a game is something you learn over time. He probably didn't get a chance to work with the pitchers much in spring training last season. I'd be willing to bet he hits better and receives better this yr. That being said, CV certainly has a spot on the team. I like the idea of a true timeshare at catcher. Keep both guys fresh. Let CV catch 2 guys always, let BS catch 2 guys always and have one starter be caught by both guys.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 15:28:14 GMT -5
In a rookie year that Swihart was not even suppose to touch the majors, he not only learned on the go but led ALL MLB catchers after the All-Star break with a .303/.353/.452/ slash line. MLB Career BABIP: Blake Swihart .358 Hanley Ramirez .328 Dustin Pedroia .313 Mookie Betts .312 David Ortiz .299 Is Swihart so much better than these other guys or did he get a bit lucky? You be the judge.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 12, 2016 16:03:39 GMT -5
There will be some regression, though he does hit the ball on the screws a bit - that line-drive thing. There's no question that Vazquez, if healthy, has a vastly superior defensive profile to Swihart's. The latter is still on a learning curve as a catcher, something Vazquez has been focusing on since he was a kid. His profile is probably better than most of the catchers in the majors, not just Swihart's. The comparative value depends on how much of an offensive improvement Swihart might provide. It would have to be quite a bit to be worth more than Vazquez, he's that good. It will be interesting to see how the Sox proceed.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 17:18:50 GMT -5
There will be some regression, though he does hit the ball on the screws a bit - that line-drive thing. The only other Sox player with nearly that level of LD% is Brock Holt. If Brock Holt had Swihart's walk and strikeout rates, he'd be sitting on the bench. And just hitting line drives doesn't account for all of Swihart's BABIP... | LD% | BABIP | Swihart | 27.0% | .358 | Holt | 24.6% | .341 | Hanigan | 22.1% | .280 |
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 17:33:12 GMT -5
In a rookie year that Swihart was not even suppose to touch the majors, he not only learned on the go but led ALL MLB catchers after the All-Star break with a .303/.353/.452/ slash line. MLB Career BABIP: Blake Swihart .358 Hanley Ramirez .328 Dustin Pedroia .313 Mookie Betts .312 David Ortiz .299 Is Swihart so much better than these other guys or did he get a bit lucky? You be the judge. Even if you bring it back lower, he's still an above average offensive catcher. He hits line drives at a good clip.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 17:35:10 GMT -5
There will be some regression, though he does hit the ball on the screws a bit - that line-drive thing. The only other Sox player with nearly that level of LD% is Brock Holt. If Brock Holt had Swihart's walk and strikeout rates, he'd be sitting on the bench. And just hitting line drives doesn't account for all of Swihart's BABIP...
| LD% | BABIP | Swihart | 27.0% | .358 | Holt | 24.6% | .341 | Hanigan | 22.1% | .280 |
Holt doesn't play catcher, you can't make that comparison like you would 2nd base against shortstop. And the point is Swihart hits line drives and ground balls. He keeps the ball low and that can always find gaps easier in a slump than a fly ball hitter who keeps popping up.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 17:48:56 GMT -5
And the point is Swihart hits line drives and ground balls. He keeps the ball low and that can always find gaps easier in a slump than a fly ball hitter who keeps popping up. OK, so let's compare him to another guy who keeps the ball low: | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | Pull% | Oppo% | BABIP | Swihart | 27.0 | 44.6 | 28.4 | 11.1 | 38.7 | 27.1 | .358 | Pedroia since 2013 | 21.5 | 49.5 | 29.0 | 12.2 | 39.7 | 25.1 | .315 |
Please tell me, if this isn't just luck, what exactly is it that Swihart is doing better than Pedroia?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 17:55:28 GMT -5
Another point is that Swihart can easily work on his defense and pitch framing in the minors. Vazquez isn't going to be able to work much on his hitting in AAA.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 17:57:42 GMT -5
And the point is Swihart hits line drives and ground balls. He keeps the ball low and that can always find gaps easier in a slump than a fly ball hitter who keeps popping up. OK, so let's compare him to another guy who keeps the ball low:
| LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | Pull% | Oppo% | BABIP | Swihart | 27.0 | 44.6 | 28.4 | 11.1 | 38.7 | 27.1 | .358 | Pedroia since 2013 | 21.5 | 49.5 | 29.0 | 12.2 | 39.7 | 25.1 | .315 |
Please tell me, if this isn't just luck, what exactly is it that Swihart is doing better than Pedroia? There is luck, but it isn't just luck. There are plenty of players with similar stats with different BABIP numbers. Again, even dropping Swihart's by like 20 points STILL puts him much beyond Vasquez which is the point. You are acting as though he should only be hitting like .260 on BABIP. Stop over analyzing a stat that cannot be truly counted on to project a hitter. It is important, but even if he drops to Pedroia's level he still will be an above average offensive catcher. In fact, you just proved he's a similiar hitter to Pedroia. Kind of gives you a glimpse of what he could be in his prime. Now not necessarily as good a hitter, but not too far off.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 18:00:54 GMT -5
And the point is Swihart hits line drives and ground balls. He keeps the ball low and that can always find gaps easier in a slump than a fly ball hitter who keeps popping up. OK, so let's compare him to another guy who keeps the ball low: | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | Pull% | Oppo% | BABIP | Swihart | 27.0 | 44.6 | 28.4 | 11.1 | 38.7 | 27.1 | .358 | Pedroia since 2013 | 21.5 | 49.5 | 29.0 | 12.2 | 39.7 | 25.1 | .315 |
Please tell me, if this isn't just luck, what exactly is it that Swihart is doing better than Pedroia? Sure some of it might be luck, but you are overlooking the fact that his strikeouts most likely will go down and his walks will increase. Again don't read to much into small sample sizes. Look at his minor league numbers.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 18:05:28 GMT -5
Swihart has to hit like Buster Posey to be as valuable as Vazquez right now given the defense and pitch framing. The difference is severe.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 18:05:33 GMT -5
Another point is that Swihart can easily work on his defense and pitch framing in the minors. Vazquez isn't going to be able to work much on his hitting in AAA. Did you really just say that? Get at me in a month if Vazquez is still hitting well in minors.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 18:07:12 GMT -5
Another point is that Swihart can easily work on his defense and pitch framing in the minors. Vazquez isn't going to be able to work much on his hitting in AAA. Did you really just say that? Get at me in a month if Vazquez is still hitting well in minors. Vazquez doesn't even need to improve his hitting to be way more valuable than Swihart right now.
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