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Swihart vs. Vazquez vs. Hanigan
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 18:09:42 GMT -5
There is luck, but it isn't just luck. There are plenty of players with similar stats with different BABIP numbers. Yup and they are all much lower if the sample size is at all reasonable. Feel free to show numbers of your own. No, the point is exactly that this is NOT the case due to Vazquez' vastly superior plate discipline. "Oh no, please don't destroy my fantasies with NUMBERS!" Dude, this is not any sort of deep analysis, this is sabermetrics 101. BABIP needs to be regressed to the mean more than K% and BB% do. If a guy hits a .358 BABIP in half a season that doesn't actually mean he's better than Mike Trout. I am not "over analyzing", I am barely analyzing at all; I am taking these numbers straight from the Steamer projection line on their respective FanGraphs player pages. ...will be a worse hitter than Vazquez unless he can improve his plate discipline significantly. Please note that I'm not saying that he CAN'T improve his plate discipline. He is very young, after all. I'm just saying that the numbers don't have him coming out ahead THIS YEAR.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 18:21:40 GMT -5
Sure some of it might be luck, but you are overlooking the fact that his strikeouts most likely will go down and his walks will increase. Again don't read to much into small sample sizes. Look at his minor league numbers. I did, just for you. But they're not great and it's well-established that K% tends to keep going up as you rise in levels. Is there room for improvement? Yes. Is it as large as you're implying? No, not really.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 19:15:15 GMT -5
There is luck, but it isn't just luck. There are plenty of players with similar stats with different BABIP numbers. Yup and they are all much lower if the sample size is at all reasonable. Feel free to show numbers of your own. No, the point is exactly that this is NOT the case due to Vazquez' vastly superior plate discipline. "Oh no, please don't destroy my fantasies with NUMBERS!" Dude, this is not any sort of deep analysis, this is sabermetrics 101. BABIP needs to be regressed to the mean more than K% and BB% do. If a guy hits a .358 BABIP in half a season that doesn't actually mean he's better than Mike Trout. I am not "over analyzing", I am barely analyzing at all; I am taking these numbers straight from the Steamer projection line on their respective FanGraphs player pages. ...will be a worse hitter than Vazquez unless he can improve his plate discipline significantly. Please note that I'm not saying that he CAN'T improve his plate discipline. He is very young, after all. I'm just saying that the numbers don't have him coming out ahead THIS YEAR. You are acting like Vasquez will be a .350 OBP guy. Saying Vasquez has vastly superior plate discipline is just plane dumb. He is more disciplined, but we're comparing guys who averaged 40 and 30 walks a year basically in the minors (Swihart went through the minors quicker and was at a younger age at each level). Aside from one year in which he struckout 44 times, Vasquez routinely struckout 70-80+ times a year, the same as Swihart. Swihart gets hits. Vasquez was a career .267/.346/.393 minor league hitter while Swihart was a .286/.340/.427 career minor league hitter. Swihart went through each level faster and Vasquez has slightly inflated numbers in comparison due to improving over whole seasons at each level. Yes, regressing BABIP to a mean gives a safer outlook. However, you cannot completely reduce someone's numbers because there are too many factors at hand. Since 2014 Brock Holt has averaged a .350 BABIP. Yes he hits slumps, but he has maintained it due to his style of play. Holt does not hit for power. Swihart also does not have an overly aggressive swing on a power standpoint. They both slap away on the outer half. If you're going to point out that it may not be sustainable you have to at least accept it is possible. And by the way, that .358 number you mentioned is his CAREER number. Meaning it is very likely he will sustain those numbers on BABIP because his entire professional career is a decent sample size.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 19:18:54 GMT -5
You're missing the main point. Vazquez doesn't have to hit anywhere as well as Swihart to be a lot better. Vazquez could have had his rookie year repeated for his hitting for the rest of his career and be a better catcher unless Swihart makes some pretty big improvements. Which I happen to think he will eventually, but he's not at that point right now.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Apr 12, 2016 19:20:51 GMT -5
I'd first see if the Rangers would be interested in trading for Hanigan. The Sox have to be at least quietly shopping Hannigan and testing what the market it. I'd be very surprised if they have not.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 19:21:08 GMT -5
And by the way, that .358 number you mentioned is his CAREER number. Meaning it is very likely he will sustain those numbers on BABIP because his entire professional career is a decent sample size. OK, I can see this discussion is pointless.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 12, 2016 19:22:20 GMT -5
At some point, an mlb team will really want a good catcher like Hannigan and we can pick up a decent player in return if we want to go that route. Or if some team is absolutely sold on one of our other guys fine, trade the one who gives us the best deal. There are benefits to having that kind of quality depth on a big market team like the Redsox though, especially when 2 of the guys still have options. If someone gets hurt very much at all they can send him to the DL and bring up Vasquez. That keeps all these guys healthy until the playoffs, when so many catchers wear down over a long season.
I lean towards Swihart, who had no business even playing the first half of last year. We should be patient with this guy. If anything, his stock went up last year in my book. He's not going to be Posey but he may well be the best hitting catcher in the league for a few years. And he runs the bases well and should be an above average defensive catcher. He probably continues to improve.
I don't think Vasquez hits at league average long term, but we can't really project either Swihart or Vasquez yet based on their mlb sample sizes.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 19:28:50 GMT -5
Thanks for that. 2012-2014 looking at stats at A, A+ and AA his k% was 18%, 14.9% and 17.1%. I'm not looking at his stops in between because he has fewer then 100 AB, thus they tell you very little. So a drop from 25% to below 20% isn't large? When I look at those numbers I don't see a guy that's going to strikeout more then 20% of the time.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 19:32:21 GMT -5
Did you really just say that? Get at me in a month if Vazquez is still hitting well in minors. Vazquez doesn't even need to improve his hitting to be way more valuable than Swihart right now. I don't think he needs to improve hitting to be more valuable. Just think it's crazy to act like Vazquez is so good at hitting that AAA pitching can't challenge him!
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 19:32:23 GMT -5
You're missing the main point. Vazquez doesn't have to hit anywhere as well as Swihart to be a lot better. Vazquez could have had his rookie year repeated for his hitting for the rest of his career and be a better catcher unless Swihart makes some pretty big improvements. Which I happen to think he will eventually, but he's not at that point right now. I think you're over valuing Vasquez and undervaluing Swihart's bat and athleticism. I see Vasquez in the same light as JBJ and Pedroia defensively and as a catcher that means an even greater impact. But Swihart threw out 38% to Vasquez's 37% in the minors. Now the latter has the better arm no doubt, but it's not a huge gap. Swihart is getting better at receiving, and his athleticism has allowed him to really grow at blocking. Swihart can push more runs on the basepaths with his greater speed. The gap of value is not as huge as you think, and Swihart has the greater ceiling to reach. Vasquez is a defensive wizard but his overall value to me just is not as much as Swihart because I believe he will improve so much defensively with time that by the break or the end of the year defense for him can become above average.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 19:36:48 GMT -5
And by the way, that .358 number you mentioned is his CAREER number. Meaning it is very likely he will sustain those numbers on BABIP because his entire professional career is a decent sample size. OK, I can see this discussion is pointless. Why? You tried to disprove his BABIP even though he's done it his entire career. Even dropping to a .330 number is well within reason for him and would put him around a .290 hitter. You pulled the stats and argued against them. Again, I know it is a very high number. But if he's done roughly that his entire career, it shows it is not unreasonable to believe he can sustain a good BABIP.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2016 19:38:23 GMT -5
Blake Swihart has all of 328 career plate appearances, which is so small a sample as to be virtually meaningless in terms of predicting his future BABIP.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 19:39:29 GMT -5
Vazquez doesn't even need to improve his hitting to be way more valuable than Swihart right now. I don't think he needs to improve hitting to be more valuable. Just think it's crazy to act like Vazquez is so good at hitting that AAA pitching can't challenge him! It was intended to be more about Swihart, who someone earlier suggested that he can't improve in AAA so he shouldn't be sent down. He can work on defense just as much there as in the majors.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 19:40:22 GMT -5
Vazquez doesn't even need to improve his hitting to be way more valuable than Swihart right now. I don't think he needs to improve hitting to be more valuable. Just think it's crazy to act like Vazquez is so good at hitting that AAA pitching can't challenge him! Vasquez is major league ready. But with Swihart having been up for almost an entire season (last May) sending him back to the minors would be pretty odd especially with him sporting around a .275 average and getting better defensively. Because change works sooooo well (Xander and Stephen Drew)
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 19:41:31 GMT -5
You're missing the main point. Vazquez doesn't have to hit anywhere as well as Swihart to be a lot better. Vazquez could have had his rookie year repeated for his hitting for the rest of his career and be a better catcher unless Swihart makes some pretty big improvements. Which I happen to think he will eventually, but he's not at that point right now. I think you're over valuing Vasquez and undervaluing Swihart's bat and athleticism. I see Vasquez in the same light as JBJ and Pedroia defensively and as a catcher that means an even greater impact. But Swihart threw out 38% to Vasquez's 37% in the minors. Now the latter has the better arm no doubt, but it's not a huge gap. Swihart is getting better at receiving, and his athleticism has allowed him to really grow at blocking. Swihart can push more runs on the basepaths with his greater speed. The gap of value is not as huge as you think, and Swihart has the greater ceiling to reach. Vasquez is a defensive wizard but his overall value to me just is not as much as Swihart because I believe he will improve so much defensively with time that by the break or the end of the year defense for him can become above average. Vazquez is more valuable now. We should use the best catcher if we want to win now. This isn't rocket science. As soon as he can handle the workload, he should be the starter. I'll wait patiently for Swihart to improve enough defensively in AAA or develop significant power. Also, the stealing percentage is misleading because I'd be willing to bet runners were more hesitant to run on Vazquez.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 12, 2016 19:41:46 GMT -5
Thanks for that. 2012-2014 looking at stats at A, A+ and AA his k% was 18%, 14.9% and 17.1%. I'm not looking at his stops in between because he has fewer then 100 AB, thus they tell you very little. So a drop from 25% to below 20% isn't large? When I look at those numbers I don't see a guy that's going to strikeout more then 20% of the time. 20% would be a fine improvement, but absolutely speaking it's still pretty high. In fact, 20% is exactly what Steamer projects him for. With the expected BABIP regression, he's still far away from the superstar people here yearn for. I think the dream with Swihart is that he develops the kind of power that's usually associated with such a high strikeout rate (for non-catchers). But that's more likely to come in his age-26 or age-27 season than his age-24 season.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 19:42:52 GMT -5
Blake Swihart has all of 328 career plate appearances, which is so small a sample as to be virtually meaningless in terms of predicting his future BABIP. That number is based on the entirety of his minor league career. His admittedly small sample size major league number is almost completely identical to his minor league numbers though.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 19:45:40 GMT -5
Thanks for that. 2012-2014 looking at stats at A, A+ and AA his k% was 18%, 14.9% and 17.1%. I'm not looking at his stops in between because he has fewer then 100 AB, thus they tell you very little. So a drop from 25% to below 20% isn't large? When I look at those numbers I don't see a guy that's going to strikeout more then 20% of the time. 20% would be a fine improvement, but absolutely speaking it's still pretty high. In fact, 20% is exactly what Steamer projects him for. With the expected BABIP regression, he's still far away from the superstar people here yearn for. I think the dream with Swihart is that he develops the kind of power that's usually associated with such a high strikeout rate (for non-catchers). But that's more likely to come in his age-26 or age-27 season than his age-24 season. Projections like that don't matter. What matters is the overall body of work. Swihart typically falls into a 16% average when he settles in. This year he has 4 walks to 3 strikeouts and its only been about a week. Does that mean he's got great discipline? No, but it means we should see how he does over the course of a few months.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2016 19:46:46 GMT -5
Blake Swihart has all of 328 career plate appearances, which is so small a sample as to be virtually meaningless in terms of predicting his future BABIP. That number is based on the entirety of his minor league career. His admittedly small sample size major league number is almost completely identical to his minor league numbers though. Swihart has a career .331 BABIP in the minor leagues, which is already a tick down. MLB BABIPs are also generally higher than minor league ones (better pitching, better defense, better-maintained ballfields).
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 19:52:21 GMT -5
That number is based on the entirety of his minor league career. His admittedly small sample size major league number is almost completely identical to his minor league numbers though. Swihart has a career .331 BABIP in the minor leagues, which is already a tick down. MLB BABIPs are also generally higher than minor league ones (better pitching, better defense, better-maintained ballfields). See at this point now we're nitpicking if we're talking about the differences. If you take out Swihart's first full season at A ball, then the number is around .350 and we're right back where we started.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 19:55:44 GMT -5
Yeah, nitpicking at something that does not matter. With Swihart's current level of defense and pitch framing, he'd have to hit like Papi to be better than Vazquez overall. His BABIP isn't going to be .600, so that's not in question. I thought determining who should be the starter is the point of this thread.
And look at that, Swihart gave away another out. And the guy who would have been out with a better defensive play hit a 2 run HR.
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Post by abrax1212 on Apr 12, 2016 20:01:14 GMT -5
Yeah, nitpicking at something that does not matter. With Swihart's current level of defense and pitch framing, he'd have to hit like Papi to be better than Vazquez overall. His BABIP isn't going to be .600, so that's not in question. I thought determining who should be the starter is the point of this thread. And look at that, Swihart gave away another out. I slightly disagree with you about and huge Vasquez's defensive value is in comparison, but I respect your idea on it. I personally would trade Hanigan and have Swihart start around 7 games to 4 for Vasquez. But I believe no matter the splits you keep both of them
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 20:03:09 GMT -5
I don't think he needs to improve hitting to be more valuable. Just think it's crazy to act like Vazquez is so good at hitting that AAA pitching can't challenge him! It was intended to be more about Swihart, who someone earlier suggested that he can't improve in AAA so he shouldn't be sent down. He can work on defense just as much there as in the majors. Really when did I say that? I said I think he would be better working on D and catching in majors with one of the best in Baseball to help him learn, not that he couldn't improve in minors!
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2016 20:15:48 GMT -5
It was intended to be more about Swihart, who someone earlier suggested that he can't improve in AAA so he shouldn't be sent down. He can work on defense just as much there as in the majors. Really when did I say that? I said I think he would be better working on D and catching in majors with one of the best in Baseball to help him learn, not that he couldn't improve in minors! I said someone, not you.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 12, 2016 22:47:38 GMT -5
MLBTraderumors: The Red Sox have considered activating catcher Christian Vazquez from the disabled list, manager John Farrell told reporters, including the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter link). Per Farrell, nothing is imminent, but the club has had ongoing discussions about its catching situation. ESPN Boston’s Scott Lauber points out (Twitter link) that sophomore backstop Blake Swihart had a rough game defensively but also notes that Vazquez, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, has yet to catch three games in a row on his rehab assignment. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/quick-hits-draft-vazquez-thames-dodgers.html
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