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Bogaerts redux: What will 2016 bring?
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Post by dirtywater43 on Mar 7, 2016 6:12:54 GMT -5
Yet all we hear is about how hard Sandaval is working at the steak buffet. He's a vegetarian, FYI. Edit: maybe not, Google is not specific. If Pablo is a vegetarian, then I'm James Bond.
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Post by burythehammer on Mar 7, 2016 7:14:10 GMT -5
Bang up job here, guys.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2016 22:23:42 GMT -5
I'll try to update this SS WAR ranking (which I did for my own curiosity after reading SI's story about the explosion of SS talent) every few weeks. The ranking is based 60% on bWAR and 40% on fWAR; I've included BP's version just because it was there.
Name Team bW fW BP Ave Aledmys Diaz Cardinals 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.6 Zack Cozart Reds 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 Xander Bogaerts Red Sox 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 Francis. Lindor Indians 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 J.J. Hardy Orioles 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.8 Brand. Crawford Giants 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.8 Elvis Andrus Rangers 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.6 Addison Russell Cubs 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 Trevor Story Rockies 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 Troy Tulowitzki Blue Jays 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 Marcus Semien Athletics 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 Ketel Marte Mariners 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.4 Corey Seager Dodgers 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 Nick Ahmed Diamondbacks 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 Jose Iglesias Tigers 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 Andrel. Simmons Angels 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.3 Asdrub. Cabrera Mets 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 Jordy Mercer Pirates 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 Carlos Correa Astros 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 Jonathan Villar Brewers 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.2 Alexei Ramirez Padres -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 Freddy Galvis Phillies -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Jimmy Rollins White Sox -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 Eduardo Escobar Twins -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 Didi Gregorius Yankees -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 Danny Espinosa Nationals -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 Ad. Hechavarria Marlins -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 Alcides Escobar Royals -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 Brad Miller Rays -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.6 Erick Aybar Braves -0.9 -1.2 -0.6 -1.0
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Post by ramireja on Apr 29, 2016 7:34:43 GMT -5
Can we talk about his baserunning value for a moment? He is 5/5 in SB and taken from Alex Speier: "he has now scored eight times from first on doubles this year – a trick that, according to Baseball-Reference.com, no one else in the majors has accomplished more than three times this year."
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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2016 7:44:16 GMT -5
To be fair, many of Ortiz's doubles are often really triples (or would be home runs in any other park). But Bogaerts is legitimately very good at reading base hits off the bat and has impressive speed due to his long strides.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 29, 2016 9:18:59 GMT -5
I mentioned this in the Gameday thread, but I'm starting to think Bogaerts just has a really, really high baseball IQ. He reads plays well, he gets great jumps when he tries to steal ... seems to take extra bases all the time without ever getting caught or even coming that close. He's a little faster than I think, perhaps, but I also think he's just quicker to diagnose plays and gets an extra step that way. I've been really impressed by this part of his game and just overall impressed by him this year.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 29, 2016 10:24:11 GMT -5
There's some part of me that wants Bogaerts and Betts to switch places in the batting order. We all thought X was mis-cast as a SS but perhaps he's just mis-cast as a 3-hitter.
Also, can we re-evaluate the Iglesias trade now that we finally have Bogaerts installed at SS?? I mean, sure it might have been good to have Jose for a couple of seasons, but it also might have stunted Xander's growth, or shoe-horned him into a lesser position.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 29, 2016 10:33:20 GMT -5
There's some part of me that wants Bogaerts and Betts to switch places in the batting order. We all thought X was mis-cast as a SS but perhaps he's just mis-cast as a 3-hitter. Also, can we re-evaluate the Iglesias trade now that we finally have Bogaerts installed at SS?? I mean, sure it might have been good to have Jose for a couple of seasons, but it also might have stunted Xander's growth, or shoe-horned him into a lesser position. The only issue with the trade I have is they maybe could've gotten someone more valuable than Peavy. Although I'm not sure how high Iglesias' value was.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 29, 2016 11:04:32 GMT -5
There's some part of me that wants Bogaerts and Betts to switch places in the batting order. We all thought X was mis-cast as a SS but perhaps he's just mis-cast as a 3-hitter. More than likely the Red Sox are up to date on lineup optimization and know that the #3 spot in the order should only be your 4th or 5th best hitter.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 29, 2016 16:36:21 GMT -5
Also, can we re-evaluate the Iglesias trade now that we finally have Bogaerts installed at SS?? I mean, sure it might have been good to have Jose for a couple of seasons, but it also might have stunted Xander's growth, or shoe-horned him into a lesser position. I don't think it was entirely clear that Iglesias would miss all of 2014, though, and I'm not sure his defense is as good again as it was before the injury. So in hindsight of course it worked out well but there is an alternative reality in which Iglesias has provided quite a bit more value since the trade. In any case, I agree we didn't really need Peavy and should have gotten something better.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 29, 2016 16:37:53 GMT -5
More than likely the Red Sox are up to date on lineup optimization and know that the #3 spot in the order should only be your 4th or 5th best hitter. I'm sure several people in the Red Sox FO know this. I'm even more sure that John Farrell is calling the shots on this and he has no f'ing clue. See him starting Chris Young at #5 against a RHP recently...
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Post by rafael on Apr 29, 2016 21:26:39 GMT -5
I really think Bogaerts will be in the top 10 of the MVP voting. Or, at least, in the top 10 in WAR in the AL. The guy can hit, field and run.
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Post by larrycook on Apr 29, 2016 22:31:20 GMT -5
Tonight against the Yankees was the best I have seen bogey swing the bat this year. He still has to remind himself to lay off the sliders low and away, but other than that, I really like the way he is swinging the bat.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 30, 2016 6:03:04 GMT -5
I mentioned this in the Gameday thread, but I'm starting to think Bogaerts just has a really, really high baseball IQ. He reads plays well, he gets great jumps when he tries to steal ... seems to take extra bases all the time without ever getting caught or even coming that close. He's a little faster than I think, perhaps, but I also think he's just quicker to diagnose plays and gets an extra step that way. I've been really impressed by this part of his game and just overall impressed by him this year. Isn't it likely that the physical training he's done to become a better SS have helped with his quickness and speed?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2016 23:10:01 GMT -5
This comparison of aWAR (average of b and f) is too good to bury in a game thread. (I round in the direction of bWAR, BTW.)
Age 22: 4.5 vs 2.8 Age 23: 9.1 pace vs. 4.5
So the simplest description of Xander Bogaerts is ... twice as good as Derek Jeter.
(Yeah, I know it's 86% better if you count both years.)
More interestingly, Jeter's best season, 1999 at age 25, was 7.7.
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Post by telson13 on May 30, 2016 0:50:47 GMT -5
This comparison of aWAR (average of b and f) is too good to bury in a game thread. (I round in the direction of bWAR, BTW.) Age 22: 4.5 vs 2.8 Age 23: 9.1 pace vs. 4.5 So the simplest description of Xander Bogaerts is ... twice as good as Derek Jeter. (Yeah, I know it's 86% better if you count both years.) More interestingly, Jeter's best season, 1999 at age 25, was 7.7. I'd be shocked if Bogaerts ends up at .350, but .330 with 20 HR and above-average defense wouldn't surprise me. He's well on his way to superstardom. Interesting and edifying to see him doing what some of us had hoped for (even predicted) in combing last year's all-fields approach with selective pulling for power. What a terrific, adaptable young hitter. Makes me wonder if, in a few years, he's throwing up Machado power numbers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 30, 2016 1:32:15 GMT -5
This comparison of aWAR (average of b and f) is too good to bury in a game thread. (I round in the direction of bWAR, BTW.) Age 22: 4.5 vs 2.8 Age 23: 9.1 pace vs. 4.5 So the simplest description of Xander Bogaerts is ... twice as good as Derek Jeter. (Yeah, I know it's 86% better if you count both years.) More interestingly, Jeter's best season, 1999 at age 25, was 7.7. I'd be shocked if Bogaerts ends up at .350, but .330 with 20 HR and above-average defense wouldn't surprise me. He's well on his way to superstardom. Interesting and edifying to see him doing what some of us had hoped for (even predicted) in combing last year's all-fields approach with selective pulling for power. What a terrific, adaptable young hitter. Makes me wonder if, in a few years, he's throwing up Machado power numbers. Well, it's all about the BABIP, isn't it? This is interesting ... number of .380 BABIP seasons among qualified hitters, last 25 years. Year # 1991 0 1992 0 1993 1 1994 1 1995 2 1996 1 1997 2 1998 3 1999 4 2000 3 2001 0 2002 1 2003 0 2004 1 2005 0 2006 1 2007 5 2008 2 2009 2 2010 3 2011 2 2012 3 2013 3 2014 1 2015 4 Big spike in 2007. Xander is currently 5th in MLB in BABIP, so what has the 5th best figure been recently? 2015, .378 (Xander was 6th at .372) 2014, .356 2013, .371 2012, .371 2011, .367 2010, .355 2009, .372 2008, .361 2007, .381 The other thing worth noting is that he has never hit well in cold weather. .204 / .246 / .333 (57 PA), 4/5 to 4/19 .400 / .467 / .508 (75 PA), 4/20 to 5/7 .404 / .442 / .629 (95 PA), 5/8 - 5/29
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Post by thursty on May 30, 2016 2:26:28 GMT -5
Yeah, and you know who's first in 2016 BABIP? Mark Reynolds. It's a long season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 31, 2016 10:28:52 GMT -5
aWAR pace leaders:
10.7 Machado 9.8 Trout 9.4 Fowler 9.2 Altuve 9.1 Bogaerts
There are 3 more 23 and under players who stand out:
6.9 Lindor 6.4 Harper 6.0 Betts
There's a growing feeling that Machado has put himself into Trout / Harper territory, since he's coming off of a 7.0 season. Xander's coming off "only" a 4.5, so it's certainly premature to add him to that mix. But we shall see.
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Post by jmei on May 31, 2016 15:27:15 GMT -5
Upon request, I've moved the Bogaerts extension discussion to that thread.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 12, 2016 10:51:51 GMT -5
aWAR pace leaders: 10.7 Machado 9.8 Trout 9.4 Fowler 9.2 Altuve 9.1 Bogaerts There are 3 more 23 and under players who stand out: 6.9 Lindor 6.4 Harper 6.0 Betts There's a growing feeling that Machado has put himself into Trout / Harper territory, since he's coming off of a 7.0 season. Xander's coming off "only" a 4.5, so it's certainly premature to add him to that mix. But we shall see. Xman now leads the MLB is FWar
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Post by bosox81 on Jun 12, 2016 10:54:21 GMT -5
aWAR pace leaders: 10.7 Machado 9.8 Trout 9.4 Fowler 9.2 Altuve 9.1 Bogaerts There are 3 more 23 and under players who stand out: 6.9 Lindor 6.4 Harper 6.0 Betts There's a growing feeling that Machado has put himself into Trout / Harper territory, since he's coming off of a 7.0 season. Xander's coming off "only" a 4.5, so it's certainly premature to add him to that mix. But we shall see. Xman now leads the MLB is FWar bwar too
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 12, 2016 10:54:40 GMT -5
aWAR pace leaders: 10.7 Machado 9.8 Trout 9.4 Fowler 9.2 Altuve 9.1 Bogaerts There are 3 more 23 and under players who stand out: 6.9 Lindor 6.4 Harper 6.0 Betts There's a growing feeling that Machado has put himself into Trout / Harper territory, since he's coming off of a 7.0 season. Xander's coming off "only" a 4.5, so it's certainly premature to add him to that mix. But we shall see. Xman now leads the MLB is FWar All hitters. Kershaw still has him. And I just checked. Also BWar
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 12, 2016 11:14:32 GMT -5
Don't know how all of you forecasted this season for Xander, but I was expecting a slight regression. I was actually hoping he would not fall too much, as pitchers figured some stuff out, to say an average of .290 with a small uptick in power to say maybe 12 to 14 homers. Boy do I look stupid now!
The "jump" from 2014 to 2015 was amazing. This year the jump has been even more so! I loved what I saw last year, but there was a lot of soft grounders and pop flys hit primarily to the right side. I figured teams would start to shade him that way and take away some of those "cheap" hits he got. He isn't getting a lot of cheap hits this year IMO. Love how he has made it almost impossible for a team to play him one way. The power has really been impressive with him showing 20 doubles and 8 homers after just 61 games. If you extrapolate those figures over 162, you get 53 doubles and 21 homers.
An amazing thing, his base running sometimes is even more impressive. As several folks have said, he has a HIGH baseball IQ. Sort of scary for the American League to think he may just be scraping the surface. Nomar is my all-time favorite shortstop, but Xander looks like he is already a better all-around SS now.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2016 14:59:23 GMT -5
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