SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
iii
Rookie
Posts: 46
|
Post by iii on Jul 16, 2019 18:12:03 GMT -5
Song should be at 11
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2019 7:25:16 GMT -5
I agree with these for the most part. I would have Song right where he is at. Cedanne should be top 25. Cellucci is outside of my top 60.. Trying to thread a needle with the following comment, because Alex obviously does a tremendous job and I'm sure he researched the piece sufficiently, but we've been following up on the whole "Rafaela at 12" thing and Alex seems to be on a bit of an island there. We moved him up a bit obviously (he's been ranked or lurking just outside the top 60 since last summer, so he wasn't off our radar entirely or anything), but I can't understand putting him that high. Tell me this: looking at his profile, other than Alex's recent article, what would warrant his being that high? We've seen him play and like him, but putting him at 12 doesn't square with anything else in the profile, to me. There is no way Song & Zeferjahn should be ahead of him. Curious why you think that. Song hasn't even debuted yet and was thought of as a late first/early second-round talent. As for Zeferjahn, for us, with guys that close, you could argue it either way - I think of that trio of college pitchers (Ward has separated himself, imo) is roughly interchangeable at present. But I just wonder why you think it's that absolute. The fact Shugart missed out on half a season of development because of the suspension isn't great, obviously. He's certainly making up for lost time though. I could see him moving up in August. It's disappointing that we won't get to see how his body holds up to a full season until next year though, as 5-10, 180 isn't quite an ideal pitcher's build. Same point here: If you're arguing about a spot or two, it's a matter of personal preference. I know at least one member of the brass would rank him as the top draftee as well. It's a defensible position. Ranking Song is incredibly hard to do right now. Is he going to lose two years of development entirely? Partially? Not at all? If he does, what will his stuff even look like when he returns? His rank has to account for that unique risk, which we've never really dealt with before.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Jul 17, 2019 7:26:20 GMT -5
Top 15;
Casas Mata Hernandez Dalbec Duran Chatham Houck Jimenez Groome Shugart Ward Feltman Shawaryn Flores Howlett
Because Shugart is in the system & pitching. He basically has as the same amount of innings pitched this year as Hernandez & Shawaryn. You said it. Song hasn't even debuted yet. I can see both Song & Zeferjahn appearing after the top 15. The way Shugart is pitching I think he has a real good chance of becoming a valuable Pitcher on an MLB staff, maybe not as a Starter or as a teams Closer but as a Bullpen piece & those are valuable guys. And I don't think he's to far away. I'd like to see him finish the year in Salem then pitch in the AFL. Take a look at him in Spring Training next year & then start him in Portland. I think he could be in Boston by this time next year. I think he is to low in the rankings by at least 10 spots.
|
|
|
Post by caseytins on Jul 20, 2019 15:07:57 GMT -5
Just for fun, I decided to start working on a top prospect list. I feel conformable with the top 15-20. I need to dig a bit deeper and will add analysis for each ranking. I use analytics, video, scouting, and other resources as best as I can..
1 Bryan Mata SP 2 Triston Casas 1B 3 Bobby Dalbec 3B/1B 4 Darwinzon Hernandez RP/SP 5 Jarren Duran CF 6 Tanner Houck RP/SP 7 Nick Decker OF 8 Jay Groome SP/RP 9 Gilberto Jimenez CF 10 CJ Chatham SS/2B 11 Thaddeus Ward SP/RP 12 Matthew Lugo IF 13 Cameron Cannon IF 14 Chase Shugart RP/SP 15 Antoni Flores IF 16 Noah Song SP/RP 17 Danny Diaz CI 18 Durbin Feltman RP 19 Brandon Howlett CI 20 Ryan Zeferjahn RP/SP 21 Ceddanne Rafaela MI 22 Aldo Ramirez SP/RP 23 Nick Northcut IF 24 Marcus Wilson OF 25 Brainer Bonaci MI 26 Eduardo Lopez OF 27 Wilkenmon Gonzalez RP/SP 28 Mike Shawaryn RP/SP 29 Brayan Bello RP/SP 30 Brock Bell RP/SP 31 Josh Ockimey 1B 32 Bryan Gonalez OF 33 Cutter Crawford RP/SP 34 Alex Sherff RP/SP 35 Nixson Munox RP/SP 36 Albert Feliz 1B/DH 37 Axel James UTIL 38 Blake Loubier SP/RP 39 Devlin Granberg 1B/DH 40 Travis Lakins RP 41 Felix Cepeda RP/SP 42 Chris Murphy RP/SP
|
|
|
Post by caseytins on Jul 21, 2019 7:41:26 GMT -5
Why no love for Ockimey? I know he can't hit LHP, but his slash line this year against RHP is almost identical to Dalbec's line: Ockimey .235/.382/.515/.897 Dalbec .235/.382/.469/.851 I'll admit to completely scouting the stat lines here so not trying to argue one way or the other, just asking the question. Without having watched him, would think he could be a legit Mooreland replacement? I forgot him, and perhaps one or two others. I'm not that high on Ockimey. His one plus tool is his power. The contact rates are really concerning at this point..
|
|
larrycook
Veteran
Posts: 2,471
Member is Online
|
Post by larrycook on Jul 21, 2019 13:01:37 GMT -5
Just for fun, I decided to start working on a top prospect list. I feel conformable with the top 15-20. I need to dig a bit deeper and will add analysis for each ranking. I use analytics, video, scouting, and other resources as best as I can.. 1 Triston Casas 1B 2 Bryan Mata SP/RP 3 Bobby Dalbec 3B/1B 4 Darwinzon Hernandez RP/SP 5 Jarren Duran CF 6 Tanner Houck RP/SP 7 Nick Decker OF 8 Jay Groome SP/RP 9 Gilberto Jimenez CF 10 CJ Chatham SS/2B 11 Thaddeus Ward SP/RP 12 Matthew Lugo IF 13 Cameron Cannon IF 14 Chase Shugart RP/SP 15 Antoni Flores IF 16 Noah Song SP/RP 17 Danny Diaz CI 18 Durbin Feltman RP 19 Brandon Howlett CI 20 Ryan Zeferjahn RP/SP 21 Ceddanne Rafaela MI 22 Aldo Ramirez SP/RP 23 Nick Northcut IF 24 Marcus Wilson OF 25 Brainer Bonaci MI 26 Eduardo Lopez OF 27 Wilkenmon Gonzalez RP/SP 28 Mike Shawaryn RP/SP 29 Brayan Bello RP/SP 30 Brock Bell RP/SP 31 Josh Ockimey 1B 32 Bryan Gonalez OF 33 Cutter Crawford RP/SP 34 Alex Sherff RP/SP 35 Nixson Munox RP/SP 36 Albert Feliz 1B/DH 37 Axel James UTIL 38 Blake Loubier SP/RP 39 Devlin Granberg 1B/DH 40 Travis Lakins RP 41 Felix Cepeda RP/SP 42 Chris Murphy RP/SP I got to see Zeferjahns pitch and based on your rankings, I must have caught him on a bad day because his stuff did not look top 20.
|
|
|
Post by caseytins on Jul 21, 2019 14:31:45 GMT -5
Just for fun, I decided to start working on a top prospect list. I feel conformable with the top 15-20. I need to dig a bit deeper and will add analysis for each ranking. I use analytics, video, scouting, and other resources as best as I can.. 1 Triston Casas 1B 2 Bryan Mata SP/RP 3 Bobby Dalbec 3B/1B 4 Darwinzon Hernandez RP/SP 5 Jarren Duran CF 6 Tanner Houck RP/SP 7 Nick Decker OF 8 Jay Groome SP/RP 9 Gilberto Jimenez CF 10 CJ Chatham SS/2B 11 Thaddeus Ward SP/RP 12 Matthew Lugo IF 13 Cameron Cannon IF 14 Chase Shugart RP/SP 15 Antoni Flores IF 16 Noah Song SP/RP 17 Danny Diaz CI 18 Durbin Feltman RP 19 Brandon Howlett CI 20 Ryan Zeferjahn RP/SP 21 Ceddanne Rafaela MI 22 Aldo Ramirez SP/RP 23 Nick Northcut IF 24 Marcus Wilson OF 25 Brainer Bonaci MI 26 Eduardo Lopez OF 27 Wilkenmon Gonzalez RP/SP 28 Mike Shawaryn RP/SP 29 Brayan Bello RP/SP 30 Brock Bell RP/SP 31 Josh Ockimey 1B 32 Bryan Gonalez OF 33 Cutter Crawford RP/SP 34 Alex Sherff RP/SP 35 Nixson Munox RP/SP 36 Albert Feliz 1B/DH 37 Axel James UTIL 38 Blake Loubier SP/RP 39 Devlin Granberg 1B/DH 40 Travis Lakins RP 41 Felix Cepeda RP/SP 42 Chris Murphy RP/SP I got to see Zeferjahns pitch and based on your rankings, I must have caught him on a bad day because his stuff did not look top 20. He has a tired arm. His first two appearances were impressive. I am going to revise this a bit. Mata is my #1..
|
|
dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
|
Post by dd on Aug 1, 2019 10:31:51 GMT -5
Details
Summary:
- Bryan Mata is now #2, up from 4. He was ranked 2nd for 3 months late last year as well but fell as low as 11 back in May.
- CJ Chattham fell from 6 to 9.
- Thad Ward jumped from 20 up to 11. A year ago he was 45th.
- Matthew Lugo dropped from 11 to 15.
- Eduard Bazardo is at 28, up from 36. He began the season ranked # 51.
- Aldo Ramirez rose 11 spots in the past 2 weeks, from 40 to 29.
- Chris Murphy also shot up in late July, from # 48 up to # 30.
- Yoan Aybar at #37, up 9.
- Josh Ockimey, a #4 prospect back in May '17, dropped 8 spots from 31 to 39.
- Jaxx Grashans up from 47 to 42.
- Ceddanne Rafaela is at # 43. He was 49th mid month and 59 on 7/1.
- Kyle Hart down from 37 to 44.
- Eduardo Lopez from 41 to 48.
- Jhonathan Diaz is at 51. He was last ranked # 42 in June.
- 10th rounder Stephen Scott is in for the first time at # 56.
- Bryan Lucas, an IFA signed 2 years ago, squeezed into the top 60 for the first time at # 58.
- Juan Chacon is at the bottom of the top 60, down from 56.
(This last is not worth making the highlight list but I have a question for anybody. What is a "Future Contract"?) - Out of the top 60 this week:
- Josh Taylor graduated (was at 27).
- Brett Netzer (51).
- Alexander Montero (60).
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 1, 2019 11:05:04 GMT -5
A Futures Contract is an agreement to deliver goods at a future time at a currently agreed on price but I can't think of any applicability to baseball.
John Henry made his fortune on Futures Contracts.You are essentially betting that the market price of a commodity will be up or down in the future. Guessing right is profitable, guessing wrong, expensive.
|
|
dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
|
Post by dd on Aug 1, 2019 11:09:05 GMT -5
A Futures contract is an agreement to deliver goods at a future time at a currently agreed on price but I can't think of any applicability to baseball. Yup, I get that. I've googled the term re baseball and come up with nothing. That's Chacon though.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 1, 2019 11:24:37 GMT -5
Ah OK, I see where you got that now. Maybe SP doesn't have an official transaction yet or maybe something like waiting on a physical ??
|
|
|
Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 1, 2019 11:52:10 GMT -5
International Free Agents, especially July 2 signees, often sign Contracts for Future Services under Rule 2(j) of the Major League Rules. For example, the players listed on the International Signings page from the 2019-20 Signing Period are not signed to contracts for the 2019 season. They are signed to contracts that start in 2020. This affects minor league free agency and can have an effect on Rule 5 eligibility depending on the signing date.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Aug 1, 2019 12:09:51 GMT -5
That Hernandez has dropped from 2 to 5 over the season while actually looking really promising out of the pen is very encouraging. The Sox may not have any truly elite prospects, but they have a bunch of guys who look like legit pieces.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 1, 2019 12:30:58 GMT -5
That Hernandez has dropped from 2 to 5 over the season while actually looking really promising out of the pen is very encouraging. The Sox may not have any truly elite prospects, but they have a bunch of guys who look like legit pieces. Yeah, I think it's fair to say the following: 1) It's more that the four guys ahead of him, all of whom started the year behind him, have passed him rather than that he's fallen behind them, so to speak. 2) That said, his stock has fallen a little bit in that his chances of starting, slim as they probably were anyway, have diminished given the continued control issues he had in that role. He has a high ceiling in relief, but the ceiling on any reliever is capped at a certain point, even in today's game. There is a FV 60 RP ceiling there, but given the control thing, I have a hard time projecting him at more than a 45 or mayyyyyybe a low 50 for now.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 1, 2019 12:33:01 GMT -5
FWIW, Dick, Houck went up from 9 to 8 (which was really just Chatham moving down and Houck staying in place).
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2019 12:48:45 GMT -5
Can someone explain Lugo dropping from 11 to 15 after OPS'ing .830 in his first taste of pro ball? Was he ranked wrong to begin with?
|
|
|
Post by soxfan511 on Aug 1, 2019 14:50:44 GMT -5
Lugo is definitely the better prospect than cannon, don’t understand that at all
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 1, 2019 15:23:25 GMT -5
Well, I wouldn't begrudge anyone that opinion - I think you could defensibly tank the guys from 6-19 in a ton of ways.
Some more context
- For me, I moved him from 11 to 16, and it was pretty much entirely based on moving Ward, Song, Cannon, Howlett, and Decker up.
- I couldn't care less about his stats given it's the GCL and a crazy SSS. To illustrate:
First 14 games: 66 PA, .254/.323/.373 (.333 BABIP) Last 5 games: 25 PA, .478/.520/.609 (.579 BABIP)
His last 5 games have brought his line up 55-65 points for each part of his slash line. I'm not saying his true talent is the former, but rather that I really don't care what his line is right now.
- We did get one report on him that wasn't encouraging. Not the end of the world or anything.
By the way, it was a one-game look, but I completely disagree that Cannon is a 20 defender, as that Law write up said. Not saying he's a stud but he looked at least adequate as a defender for me.
Last point - I'm not sure how anyone could say with certainty that one guy is better than another having seen neither.
|
|
dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
|
Post by dd on Aug 1, 2019 15:43:16 GMT -5
FWIW, Dick, Houck went up from 9 to 8 (which was really just Chatham moving down and Houck staying in place). Yah, coulda, maybe shoulda, listed him as well as Groome and Jiminez. I took the guess though that in this case, as you say, the reason for their going up together by 1 probably wasn't about them.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 1, 2019 15:47:59 GMT -5
FWIW, Dick, Houck went up from 9 to 8 (which was really just Chatham moving down and Houck staying in place). Yah, coulda, maybe shoulda, listed him as well as Groome and Jiminez. I took the guess though that in this case, as you say, the reason for their going up together by 1 probably wasn't about them. My point was more that you'd said the opposite, that he'd dropped one. Just a heads up.
|
|
dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
|
Post by dd on Aug 1, 2019 15:56:07 GMT -5
Yah, coulda, maybe shoulda, listed him as well as Groome and Jiminez. I took the guess though that in this case, as you say, the reason for their going up together by 1 probably wasn't about them. My point was more that you'd said the opposite, that he'd dropped one. Just a heads up. Ah. Crap!! Misunderstood you. Fixed. That was bad editing and a lack of proofreading on my part. That comment on Houk was left over from the post on 6/30 which I used as a template because the bullets are a bit of a PITA.
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
|
Post by alnipper on Aug 5, 2019 11:33:30 GMT -5
I can not wait for my end of the year rankings input.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Aug 6, 2019 6:44:32 GMT -5
Hunter Haworth, not in the top 60 but his strikeout totals this year seem impressive. Any thoughts? Anybody seen him?
|
|
|
Post by soxin8 on Aug 6, 2019 15:05:35 GMT -5
Hunter Haworth, not in the top 60 but his strikeout totals this year seem impressive. Any thoughts? Anybody seen him? Last year in Norwich the fastball was 93 but he got all his strikeouts with a split finger that no one could hit. I think he is an interesting follow.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2019 7:35:35 GMT -5
Hunter Haworth, not in the top 60 but his strikeout totals this year seem impressive. Any thoughts? Anybody seen him? Probably someone we need to look at. Admittedly, I'm always a shade skeptical of a guy who isn't in the rotation full-time. PIggybacking can create advantages for the pitcher depending on who he's following, especially in a place like Greenville. But the fact that they've been starting Kevin Biondic, for example, over Haworth makes me wonder what the org thinks of him. I do know one front office guy who was high on him in camp last year, mentioning him right after Kutter Crawford when I asked about pitchers who might be sleepers to have breakout years, before he had that disastrous April in Greenville that saw him demoted to XST and then Lowell (where he was much better and had a good K rate as well).
|
|
|