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Satisfied with offseason so far?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2012 17:26:43 GMT -5
. But seriously, to me this offseason has been all about filling the roster with decent players. It feels to me like the sort of strategy a team employs when it has no real hope of contending in the immediate future and is just marking time. The more the Sox stuff the roster with players like Ross/Victorino/Napoli/Dempster, the more they are admitting all that is available for them to do is build a decent team - no more than that. The team as it is constructed now has very little breakthrough potential - it's a run-of-the-mill team. This is how I feel, too. It has an early 90s Lou Gorman built Butch Hobson era vibe to it. Fill in the holes with expensive veteran players who have seen their best days. Hope everything breaks right and they win about 85 - 90 games. If everything breaks just about wrong, they wind up with about 90 losses and they're selling parts off on July 31st. I thought Jeff Passan of Yahoo's comments were interesting. If you look at it, the Sox best signing, if healthy, is Napoli who should give them a decent OBP and good slugging, although his defense will likely be substandard and now his health is in question. I like what Uehara can bring to the bullpen, but at his age, I don't know how heavily they can lean on him. I don't know that they can use him like they used to use Daniel Bard. I feel Dempster will give them the 180 innings they want - or at least hope that the sliders don't catch up to his elbow. I don't know how quality they will be. I can see his ERA being north of 4.5. I think Ross is a decent backup. He should be able to help stop opponents from stealing the Sox blind. I think the Sox are crazy if they think Gomes can be a 400 - 500 plate appearances kind of guy, especially with his brutal defense. The Sox desperately need a left-handed bat in the middle of the order. If they can't find one, they have to consider leading Nava off and shifting Ellsbury (with the hopes that he's the 2011 version) into the middle of the order), or they can give Kalish a chance. Frankly, I'm not wild about either idea. Also makes me wonder why they even bothered to get Jerry Sands. And paying Victorino like a CF, when he's not - he wouldn't be for long over the course of his contract if Ellsbury got deat - or a RF who can hit doesn't make much sense to me. I believe he's definitely a player in decline and agree with Passan that he'd make a better #4 OF. They obviously need a LH stick in LF and get some more pitching depth since they won't be able to get a top-notch pitcher as they're are none available. As badly as I wanted to see the Sox sign Hamilton, I, too, wouldn't have gone 5 years on him either, and I cannot blame Cherington for not going there. I still think that the Sox might have missed the boat on trying to stock the cupboard for the future by not doing Lester for Myers and again, we'll never know if Ellsbury plus could have netted them Bauer. And the Sox, flush in cash, never went after Soler last year. I think those are 3 prospects, when added to Webster and De La Rosa, could have made a difference. Admittedly, this is conjecture. While I'm not thrilled about this offseason, I do applaud Ben for not giving up anybody on his farm and protecting the 2nd round draft pick - hope they put it to great use. And I'm glad none of these deals are longer than 3 years. Some of them I wish weren't more than 1 year. |
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Post by jmei on Dec 14, 2012 17:52:00 GMT -5
I disagree that this roster has no upside. Virtually every position player on the roster has all-star-level seasons in the last two-three years:
C: Ross had an .888 and an .871 OPS in 2009 and 2010, which would be top-5 offensive production if he sustains it over the course of a whole season.
1B: Napoli was the best hitter in baseball in 2011
2B: Pedroia is a perennial all-star and MVP winner
SS: Pass, although Iglesias is a Gold Glove-calibre defender at SS
3B: Middlebrooks flashed all-star-level talent before his injury in 2012
LF: Pass, although Gomes' 142 wRC+ in 2012 was top-5 among left fielders
CF: Ellsbury was an MVP runner-up in 2011
RF: Victorino was a 5.9 WAR player in 2011, and his 133 wRC+ would have been top-8 in baseball for right fielders
DH: Ortiz was the second-best hitter in baseball in 2012
The pitching staff has plenty of bounceback potential/upside as well, with every rotation candidate but Dempster capable of significantly surpassing their median projections.
Yes, a lot of these players are coming off injury and/or underperformance in 2011, but buying low is often a winning strategy. You're betting on regression to the mean rather than young up-and-comers, which makes for a less sexy narrative, but I disagree that there's no "breakthrough potential."
In fact, I think the bigger problem with the 2013 roster is that there's too much performance variability-- you could have a 70-win team or a 95-win team, which makes it more difficult to make bold moves like trading Ellsbury/Lester or signing Greinke/Hamilton because such a move might blow up in your face if the rest of the roster under- or over-performs their median projection.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2012 18:09:47 GMT -5
I disagree that this roster has no upside. Virtually every position player on the roster has all-star-level seasons in the last two-three years: C: Ross had an .888 and an .871 OPS in 2009 and 2010, which would be top-5 offensive production if he sustains it over the course of a whole season. 1B: Napoli was the best hitter in baseball in 2011 2B: Pedroia is a perennial all-star and MVP winner SS: Pass, although Iglesias is a Gold Glove-calibre defender at SS 3B: Middlebrooks flashed all-star-level talent before his injury in 2012 LF: Pass, although Gomes' 142 wRC+ in 2012 was top-5 among left fielders CF: Ellsbury was an MVP runner-up in 2011 RF: Victorino was a 5.9 WAR player in 2011, and his 133 wRC+ would have been top-8 in baseball for right fielders DH: Ortiz was the second-best hitter in baseball in 2012 The pitching staff has plenty of bounceback potential/upside as well, with every rotation candidate but Dempster capable of significantly surpassing their median projections. Yes, a lot of these players are coming off injury and/or underperformance in 2011, but buying low is often a winning strategy. You're betting on regression to the mean rather than young up-and-comers, which makes for a less sexy narrative, but I disagree that there's no "breakthrough potential." In fact, I think the bigger problem with the 2013 roster is that there's too much performance variability-- you could have a 70-win team or a 95-win team, which makes it more difficult to make bold moves like trading Ellsbury/Lester or signing Greinke/Hamilton because such a move might blow up in your face if the rest of the roster under- or over-performs their median projection. With most of these guys on the wrong side of 30, wouldn't that lessen the likelihood that they match or surpass what they were? I mean, I know it can happen - David Ortiz says hello, but I would expect better things with a young up and coming core - for example - I believe better days are likely ahead for Middlebrooks (especially if he can learn to become a more patient hitter) - he's on the upswing of his curve. I think the guys for the most part are entering or are in the downside of their careers. The three guys that can or need to be on the bounceback are in their late 20s - Ellbury, Lester, and Buchholz. I look at that list and I think you can make an argument like that for most teams if you look back at what somebody did a year or two or three ago. I agree about the variability although I see more of a 75-85 window with a chance of less than 75 wins if the team tanks and they decide to sell off players. I don't see a pitching staff or a thunderous lineup that will drive them to 95 wins. This team has very little resemblence to the teams of the past decade. |
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Post by jmei on Dec 14, 2012 18:52:30 GMT -5
Still young: Iglesias (22), Middlebrooks (24), Doubront (25)
Peak years: Pedroia (29), Ellsbury (29), Lester (28), Buchholz (28)
Entering into decline phase: Gomes (32), Napoli (31), Victorino (32)
In decline phase: Ortiz (37), Ross (35), Lackey (34), Dempster (36)
Seems to be a fairly even mix to me. It's tough to argue that Napoli and Victorino's age 30/31 years are the beginning of a precipitous slide or anything like that and a bounce-back is more likely than continued decline.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 14, 2012 18:52:50 GMT -5
And that seems to be my biggest issue. There is no core to build around. Even if they manage 90 wins, all they accomplish toward a bigger payoff is Ortiz is 37, Ellsbury is a free agent, Lester is in final option year, and Napoli/Victorino/Gomes are trending down.
The free agent market next year won't supplement those guys.
Ellsbury and Lester need to be converted into 5 year core guys.
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Post by mjammz on Dec 14, 2012 19:14:55 GMT -5
Everyone is looking at a partially completed puzzle and trying to project what it will look like when it's finished. The off-season isn't close to being over. I'd be shocked if the Sox don't make at least 2 more signings and I highly doubt they make it through the whole off-season without making a trade.
I agree some of these moves make you stratch your head, but let's see how all the pieces come together when all the moves are complete.
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Post by welovewally on Dec 15, 2012 7:50:41 GMT -5
Well, so far the team hasn't been improved. I don't see how anyone can make a case that it has. All the signings have been for MLB experienced players but none make the team better. Victorino & Dempster fill a need but that's it. Ross & Gomes fill a Platoon/Bench role but that's it. Uehara is a confusing signing & adds little if anything at all that wasn't already available in the system. And Napoli ( if it goes through) will be awful defensively at 1B and is not the type of hitter this team needs in the middle of the order.
I agree that the offseason is not done and more could come. But it doesn't look like there is an attempt being made to compete for this year. That's fine. Hold on to all the kids, let them develop in the Minors. It just seems odd that a team like Boston with all their resources wtite off any season so easily. As it stands now it will be a 70 - 78 win season & if everybody performs to their best ability the team could approach 82 maybe even 85.
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Post by bighead on Dec 15, 2012 9:27:26 GMT -5
As unexciting as it is, I think this offseason has gone as well as it could. After the Punto trade I thought, "Good, but the Sox won't be great for a while. Maybe 2 or 3 seasons if all goes well." The way I see it baseball has been impacted by two significant changes in the game. The first is that seemingly the entire league has adopted what I believe Cleveland was the first to try, buying out their own home grown players early FA years by giving them a long term contract in their first couple years of service. The other is PED testing. This one, two punch has changed free agency completely. It is rare that high impact players are hitting the open market before 30 years old. Usually they are hitting the market at around 33 and in the early years of decline. Because of PED testing, most players are actually aging as expected instead of having some of their best seasons in their 33-36 year seasons. Basically free agency is more risky and less cost effective than ever. "Successful" signings involve serious overpayment in the back end if not Albatross contracts. Should the Sox jump off a bridge because the LA teams are jumping off of a bridge? Its just not a good long term plan to be getting your major pieces through free agency. Look at the bill that is coming due with the Yanks. ARod, Jeter, Tex and CC all could be killer contracts if they aren't already. They also seem to have a lacking minor league system right now. Not a good combo.
The Sox could have been big bidders on Hamilton and Grienke this offseason and it would have greatly improved the team in the short run but with high risk and a potentially huge long term negative impact. Not to mention sacrificing a draft pick. I don't care if it is "only a high second rounder" either. Good value can be found in that part of the draft. I am disappointed that the Sox couldn't land Torii Hunter. Swap Hunter for Victorino and I think this was a great offseaon. All the Sox new obligations are short term/ower risk, they didn't aquire the back end of some other team's mistake signing, no draft picks were lost and their near ML ready prospects are still intact. Free agency should really only be used to plug holes 99% of the time. When the rare talent hits the market like a Giancarlo Stanton or a Felix Hernandez, release the hounds otherwise be smart. Draft, international free agency and trades should the be bulk of the team's roster building. The Lester trade didn't happen but I don't think it was as real posibility as we think it was. An Ellsbury trade didn't happen but I am thinking he may be more valuable to simply hold on to for the next year and take the draft pick when he leaves. He should have been traded right after the Punto trade. He was back and seemed healthy to a degree and a contender could have used him for potential 2 playoff runs. His value is way lower now. Gotta consider any deal as to whether or not the return is a greater value than the compensation pick the Sox will receive.
Yes, I am satisfied given the possibilities or lack there of. People seem to look at these things in a vacuum without seeing the landscape in which they occurred.
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 15, 2012 11:36:05 GMT -5
Well, so far the team hasn't been improved. I don't see how anyone can make a case that it has. All the signings have been for MLB experienced players but none make the team better. Victorino & Dempster fill a need but that's it. Ross & Gomes fill a Platoon/Bench role but that's it. Uehara is a confusing signing & adds little if anything at all that wasn't already available in the system. And Napoli ( if it goes through) will be awful defensively at 1B and is not the type of hitter this team needs in the middle of the order. I agree that the offseason is not done and more could come. But it doesn't look like there is an attempt being made to compete for this year. That's fine. Hold on to all the kids, let them develop in the Minors. It just seems odd that a team like Boston with all their resources wtite off any season so easily. As it stands now it will be a 70 - 78 win season & if everybody performs to their best ability the team could approach 82 maybe even 85. I'm not trying to be a jerk, this is a serious question, but are you saying that Napoli isn't better than Loney? That Gomes and Victorino aren't better than Podsednik and Kalish? That Ross isn't better than...nobody? That Dempster isn't better than Aaron Cook? If you want to say that the Sox could have been improved more than they have, I'm sure that's true, certainly for 2013 anyway (although I'm solidly in the "they aren't done yet" camp,) but to me all of these deals are the definition of improving the team. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 15, 2012 12:30:01 GMT -5
Well, so far the team hasn't been improved. I don't see how anyone can make a case that it has. All the signings have been for MLB experienced players but none make the team better. Victorino & Dempster fill a need but that's it. Ross & Gomes fill a Platoon/Bench role but that's it. Uehara is a confusing signing & adds little if anything at all that wasn't already available in the system. And Napoli ( if it goes through) will be awful defensively at 1B and is not the type of hitter this team needs in the middle of the order. I agree that the offseason is not done and more could come. But it doesn't look like there is an attempt being made to compete for this year. That's fine. Hold on to all the kids, let them develop in the Minors. It just seems odd that a team like Boston with all their resources wtite off any season so easily. As it stands now it will be a 70 - 78 win season & if everybody performs to their best ability the team could approach 82 maybe even 85. I'm not trying to be a jerk, this is a serious question, but are you saying that Napoli isn't better than Loney? That Gomes and Victorino aren't better than Podsednik and Kalish? That Ross isn't better than...nobody? That Dempster isn't better than Aaron Cook? If you want to say that the Sox could have been improved more than they have, I'm sure that's true, certainly for 2013 anyway (although I'm solidly in the "they aren't done yet" camp,) but to me all of these deals are the definition of improving the team. I have to agree. I have read everyone's comments here and in other posts and I'm somewhat surprised about the negativity. This team is DEFINITELY improved! I was one who pushed for a Victorino signing, and yes they are over-paying some.....but he is a nice player. I'm not sure, but he may be just as good as J.D. Drew and play more games for us in right. I like the idea of him patrolling right field this season. Certainly Ben could have spent big bucks on someone like Hamilton, but he felt over 3 years was not the smart thing to do....I agree. Some of us definitely feel like the 2012 and 2013 teams "quit". I would bet you this team will not. Some of the personalities on this team won't allow that. The great thing about baseball is that any team can "come together" for a 6-month season and shock the world. I know I'm an optimist, but the rest of American League East is not that overwhelming (except maybe the Jays if they get Dickey). Even there, we were the overwhelming favorite 2 years ago and how did that work out? I like this team the more I think about it. Counting them out would be a mistake. If we are in "it" in July, we may be the only AL team that has any money left to do something. |
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 15, 2012 12:39:45 GMT -5
So far this ofseason the Red Sox have added six guys who who over the past three years have averaged for 14.6 WAR combined. They have done this with out signing anyone for more than 3 years, giving over 13 million to any single player per year, approaching anywhere near the luxury cap, or trading any important minor league pieces.
I can see how some can be mildly dissapointed, I can understand how many people don't see us in the playoffs in the fall, but I can not for the life of me understand how anyone can say that this team has failed to improve signifigantly or how this team has bankrupted the future to be mediocore in 2013.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2012 14:22:26 GMT -5
The parts that I think people forget about 2012 w/r/t 2013:
Pedroia had a relatively awful year. Odds he improves on .290/.347/.449 are damn good.
Gonzalez hit .300/.343/.469 before being traded. Napoli had the exact same OBP and SLG with a far inferior batting average. Assuming, as a fly ball hitter, his bat plays up with the Sox, he'll pass those numbers.
Red Sox center fielders had the worst wOBA in baseball at .282. .266/.299/.341. Pretty much not possible for them to be that bad again.
They did not have a single pitcher who started 10 games and was even league average, per ERA+.
Let's be honest, they literally punted on the season on August 25, after which they went 9-27. They were 60-66 at that point. Had they just kept up that pace, that was a 77-win team WITH all the problems they had (although of course, the problems are what they are including September).
And I'm sure there's more. My point is, I think this idea that the Sox are starting from 75 wins (which I know is higher than the 69 they had) is a bit pessimistic. There were parts here that are already in place that will do better. And if they don't, then frankly, it wasn't worth going crazy in free agency or on the trade market anyway, because at that point the team would've been fundamentally flawed anyway.
In sum, I think there's something to the managed approach they're taking, and if things are going well, THEN I wouldn't be stunned to see them make a big splash at the deadline if they're a piece or two away. I just don't see throwing a ton of money at Greinke or Hamilton, with their flaws, or at Sanchez, who by default was the second-best pitcher on the market, as the way to fix the issues this club had.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 15, 2012 19:50:20 GMT -5
Personally I am done with the free agent portion of the offseason. It's like everyone has a 13million dollar price tag. I really believe in the system. Not since the 2005 draft that I feel we have this kind of talent and I believe we have more of it. I will say again we have two waves of talent . The 1st one is JBJ and Webster group. The 2nd group is Owens and Cecchini group. We can argue how much talent but I believe we can agree to the grouping. This season in the minors is very important to the FO.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 16, 2012 11:04:21 GMT -5
This is the point of the offseason that I'm curious about, when you pan for gold and see if there's an Ortiz floating around out there. Time to take a chance on a Logan Morrison, Gordon Beckham, etc and see if you can find a superstar ready to hit his peak.
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Post by benfromma on Dec 16, 2012 12:57:54 GMT -5
I agree with the last two posts (jrrusso & buffs4444) we really should be done with free agency unless there are bargains @ low cost. Our trades should find talent that may blossom in Boston We should be adding to our minor league talent for our future or to develop the trade chips to bring talent.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 17, 2012 1:48:02 GMT -5
Great synthesis of the off-season. Speier is so good he leaves the rest of the Boston baseball writers in the dust most of the time. His take on the risk and rewards of the team's strategy is outstanding, exactly what we all need to keep in mind as this off-season moves on. Here's an add to that risk and reward... Given that the team has three catchers and two centerfielders, they're well positioned for additional moves. Since the new CBA adds value to players who spend an entire year with a team, that will probably play into this. For example, say Ellsbury is traded before the season starts and he replicates his career numbers, approaching .800 OPS over the season. That's a good bet to make. If he does that or better, great. Offer him $14 million, a number he's sure to refuse but probably near next year's 150 top player contracts' calculation, and you're assured of a draft choice. So he's worth what he brings to the table this next season, and that draft choice in all probability. |
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Post by qutennis5 on Dec 17, 2012 14:03:14 GMT -5
So far a very lackluster offseason, spending money “just because we have it” on players that have little future upside and are just short term place holders.
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Post by kingstephanos on Dec 17, 2012 15:16:57 GMT -5
For example, say Ellsbury is traded before the season starts and he replicates his career numbers, approaching .800 OPS over the season. That's a good bet to make. If he does that or better, great. Offer him $14 million, a number he's sure to refuse but probably near next year's 150 top player contracts' calculation, and you're assured of a draft choice. So he's worth what he brings to the table this next season, and that draft choice in all probability. I am extremely curious about the supposed offers for Ellsbury that the Red Sox have turned down so far this off season. Per Jon Heyman: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/al-east-notes-ellsbury-blue-jays-dickey.html |
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Post by remember04 on Dec 17, 2012 18:30:54 GMT -5
I think our best bet for a trade partner with Ellsbury was Cincinnati which went down the drain when they got Choo. Our other best bet is now Texas thanks to losing out on Josh Hamilton and they have a loaded farm system but we don't really match up that well.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 17, 2012 22:31:17 GMT -5
Will be much more satisfied with this offseason when Big Manny (G.Stanton) is acquired......
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Post by bosox81 on Dec 18, 2012 16:10:00 GMT -5
Using the projected roster on this site:
Player - P/PA in 2012
1B Mike Napoli 4.43
SS Stephen Drew 4.31
LF Daniel Nava 4.07 / Jonny Gomes 4.05
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 4.06 / David Ross 4.25 / Ryan Lavarnway (if Salty's traded) 4.07
2B Dustin Pedroia 3.97
DH David Ortiz 3.91
CF Jacoby Ellsbury 3.89
3B Will Middlebrooks 3.88
RF Shane Victorino 3.68
UTL Pedro Ciriaco 3.47
1B/OF Jerry Sands 3.79 in 24 PA (4.02 career)
League average P/PA 3.82
If there's one thing this offense will do well is get to the opposing team's bullpen early and often. Coincidentally the Victorino signing was the only one I did not like.
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Post by pedroiayouk1520 on Dec 18, 2012 16:43:22 GMT -5
I think the only thing that the offense needs is a LHH who can play COF/1B (Garrett Jones). If not Jones, Logan Morrison could be available. It would make sense to use one position player to essentially backup 1B while getting significant at-bats vs RHP in LF to spell Gomes. A bench of Ciriaco/Ross/Jones/Kalish would be ideal. A pinch-hitter would be available from the left or right side, as well as two pinch-run options.
An alternative would be to teach Lavarnway or Kalish how to play 1B (I think they should be focusing more on their development and not learning a new position). I would think the acquisition cost of someone like Jones/Morrison wouldn't be that high. Maybe one of our extra relievers plus a minor leaguer we don't need could get it done.
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Post by jmei on Dec 18, 2012 17:37:56 GMT -5
The Pirates were asking a lot for Jones when Seattle asked about him. Pittsburgh initially asked for Taijuan Walker, which is obviously a pipe dream, but I doubt the Red Sox could get him for spare parts. Same goes for Morrison-- the Marlins just tore it down, and Morrison has four years of team control left, so there's no reason they'd just give him away. You could trade significant prospects for either, but are you willing to pay that price for a platoon LF/backup 1B?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2012 20:43:51 GMT -5
I think the only thing that the offense needs is a LHH who can play COF/1B (Garrett Jones). If not Jones, Logan Morrison could be available. It would make sense to use one position player to essentially backup 1B while getting significant at-bats vs RHP in LF to spell Gomes. A bench of Ciriaco/Ross/Jones/Kalish would be ideal. A pinch-hitter would be available from the left or right side, as well as two pinch-run options. An alternative would be to teach Lavarnway or Kalish how to play 1B (I think they should be focusing more on their development and not learning a new position). I would think the acquisition cost of someone like Jones/Morrison wouldn't be that high. Maybe one of our extra relievers plus a minor leaguer we don't need could get it done. They definitely need a LH corner OF bat. Maybe Salty or a reliever can help make that happen. Ideally the corner bat would be somebody you can put in the middle of the order. In that spirit, I'll throw out a name - even though it's highly doubtful he can play the OF anymore - and that name is Lance Berkman, who could fit in with the Red Sox theme of short-termedness. I don't know if Berkman could be much worse than Gomes in LF, but if he can handle LF and spell Napoli (assuming he signs) at 1b, and spell Ortiz at DH if Ortiz has another injury, the starting lineup would look like this: Ellsbury CF Pedroia 2B Ortiz DH Napoli 1B Berkman LF Middlebrooks 3B Victorino RF Lavarnway C (assuming Salty is dealt for a reliever) Drew SS With Gomes, Kalish (definitely needed for defensive purposes in LF), Ciriaco, and Ross making up the bench. Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Lackey, and Doubront in the rotation. Seven of Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Melancon, Breslow, Aceves, Miller, Morales in the bullpen. Of course the flaws would be that Berkman can't play LF anymore, and/or after a year off might not be able to hit anymore. But if he could play a mediocre LF and still swing the bat, this is a guy who won't cost a prospect or a draft pick, who has a lot of patience at the plate, and gets on base and would be on a one year deal. Something to consider anyways. One last thought - if Napoli falls thru, he's a cheaper alternative than LaRoche or Swisher and again wouldn't cost a draft pick, and is a LH bat |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 18, 2012 21:41:17 GMT -5
FWIW, Berkman has played 21 games in left field since 2006. Granted, he was primarily a RF in 2011 (he was a 1B each other year from '06-'10 and '12), but he was well below average when he did that. I'm not sure who comes out on top (bottom?) with the Gomes comparison, but I'm still not convinced that Gomes is going to get starter's at-bats in left, at least over the duration of the season.
That said, if Napoli fell through, I wouldn't mind Berkman on a one-year deal, pending his medicals. He's apparently asking for decent money though.
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