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Satisfied with offseason so far?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2012 17:32:16 GMT -5
I'm with Steve Dillard on this. The Sox could have cashed in Lester to get an impact corner OF in Wil Myers - a 1-on-1 swap. What we do know is that the Sox aren't loaded with corner OF/power prospects in the minors. We also know with Myers, he'd be under team control for six years leaving the Sox with money to get a pitcher when needed. We talk about the uncertainty of prospects. Well how about the uncertainty of Lester's future performance. It's a possibility we've already seen the best of Lester and it plays out in 3 scenarios. When Lester's deal is up, the Sox should be turning the page to the Bogaerts era. Wouldn't Myers have made more sense in that context? But they wouldn't do a deal like that or with an Ellsbury because it would damage their limited chance to win this year. My feeling, like Steve's, is that I'd rather build up that young core for the future and be ready to unleash the on the league by 2015, present be damned, and take the freed up money to get the high quality players available (as opposed to the middling players the Sox grabbed this year). I guess we disagree on what a "core" is. I feel that in 2015 when Lester is a whopping 31 and Ellsbury is 32 they can still constitutes key members of a core. The Bogaerts era can easily and successfully coincide with the Lester/Pedroia/Ellsbury/Napoli/etc. era. What if Lester returns to the standards we expect of him and Myers doesn't develop like you assume he will? Then we'd have an average RF and a big hole at the front of the rotation. Oh wait: RDL, Barnes and Webster will all be front o' the rotation starters. Or Barnes may never develop even an above average offspeed pitch. RDL might be a Farnsworth redux. Webster may be no better than Doubront. And let's not forget Owens, who might never get out of A+. I get what you're all saying; I'm being intentionally antagonistic here because some of this stuff comes across as asinine to me. You DO NOT need to jettison younish, previously successful players simply because the "next wave" is 2-3 years away. I find it asinine to discuss Ellsbury and Lester as if they're coming back in 2015. Ellsbury is gone after this year. It's hard to realistically envision a scenario where he's back. Bora$ will be looking for big $ and big years that will carry Ellsbury well into his 30s. Lester, whether he rebounds or not, is more likely than not to be gone by 2015 unless you're looking for the Sox to wrap him up until he's 36 or 37. Can core players be 31 or 32? Sure. They can even be older, but building a team that way is foolish. It will leave you with a declining expensive core. Players generally peak from 27-30. I get your point that youngsters don't always work out. That's why you accumulate as much young talent as possible and get more building blocks when you get a chance. Especially when the present isn't so great.
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Post by remember04 on Dec 19, 2012 17:48:14 GMT -5
I'm with Steve Dillard on this. The Sox could have cashed in Lester to get an impact corner OF in Wil Myers - a 1-on-1 swap. What we do know is that the Sox aren't loaded with corner OF/power prospects in the minors. We also know with Myers, he'd be under team control for six years leaving the Sox with money to get a pitcher when needed. We talk about the uncertainty of prospects. Well how about the uncertainty of Lester's future performance. It's a possibility we've already seen the best of Lester and it plays out in 3 scenarios. When Lester's deal is up, the Sox should be turning the page to the Bogaerts era. Wouldn't Myers have made more sense in that context? But they wouldn't do a deal like that or with an Ellsbury because it would damage their limited chance to win this year. My feeling, like Steve's, is that I'd rather build up that young core for the future and be ready to unleash the on the league by 2015, present be damned, and take the freed up money to get the high quality players available (as opposed to the middling players the Sox grabbed this year). I guess we disagree on what a "core" is. I feel that in 2015 when Lester is a whopping 31 and Ellsbury is 32 they can still constitutes key members of a core. The Bogaerts era can easily and successfully coincide with the Lester/Pedroia/Ellsbury/Napoli/etc. era. What if Lester returns to the standards we expect of him and Myers doesn't develop like you assume he will? Then we'd have an average RF and a big hole at the front of the rotation. Oh wait: RDL, Barnes and Webster will all be front o' the rotation starters. Or Barnes may never develop even an above average offspeed pitch. RDL might be a Farnsworth redux. Webster may be no better than Doubront. And let's not forget Owens, who might never get out of A+. I get what you're all saying; I'm being intentionally antagonistic here because some of this stuff comes across as asinine to me. You DO NOT need to jettison younish, previously successful players simply because the "next wave" is 2-3 years away. Some of us are also worried about Lester and Ellsbury turning into Beckett 2.0 and Lowell 2.0. Yeah I know there's an age difference between Lowell and Ellsbury but Ellsbury's skillset doesn't age well and he's had a whopping one great year. If I can keep one I'd keep Lester as he's harder to replace but Ellsbury has a replacemnt patiently waiting. Yeah I know JBJ may never make it and all that stuff. yes I know the risks.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 19, 2012 20:11:00 GMT -5
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Post by raftsox on Dec 19, 2012 20:43:46 GMT -5
The Red Sox have a good working relationship with the Boras corp. I'm not sure the hatred is deserved for him. The players are the ones who sign the contract. If Ellsbury has a great year and the Sox don't want to pony up the money then collect the draft pick and be happy with it. His ceiling is higher than JBJs so i'd rather he succeed with the Sox than dump him because room-think is that he'll walk at the end of the season. That being said: if it come out that BC turned down the chance at Bauer then I'll be ticked.
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2012 11:34:48 GMT -5
Here are the latest projected standings from Dan Szymborski and ZiPS ( link, ESPN insider) As of Dec. 18, the Jays are the clear favorite in the AL East.
Team W L PCT GB Toronto 93 69 .574 -- Tampa Bay 88 74 .543 5 New York 87 75 .537 6 Boston 85 77 .525 8 Baltimore 77 85 .475 16
The Boston Red Sox were projected at 76 wins last month with their on-hand talent, but assuming the Mike Napoli signing is finalized, him plus the additions of Victorino, Stephen Drew, Ryan Dempster, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes have boosted their mean win projection by about 10 wins. The team could still theoretically decide to overpay Swisher, but the lineup is probably set at this point. Edwin Jackson's probably the best signing left the team could make.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 21, 2012 12:03:02 GMT -5
Sounds about right.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 21, 2012 12:03:37 GMT -5
Didn't Jackson just sign with the Cubs?
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2012 12:23:01 GMT -5
Yeah, the article is from a few days ago.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 21, 2012 13:05:14 GMT -5
Sorry, jmei. I thought only the standings were from the linked article and the commentary afterwards was yours.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 21, 2012 13:54:35 GMT -5
That being said: if it come out that BC turned down the chance at Bauer then I'll be ticked. Having gotten rid of Matsuzaka, the sox clearly need another starter who will walk the park and not take instruction. Seriously though, I don't understand the love for Bauer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2012 14:08:48 GMT -5
That being said: if it come out that BC turned down the chance at Bauer then I'll be ticked. Having gotten rid of Matsuzaka, the sox clearly need another starter who will walk the park and not take instruction. Seriously though, I don't understand the love for Bauer. He's got a great arm, and from listening to Gammons, that quote came from some idiotic member of ownership that thought that our now very own Stephen Drew was more concerned with his contract than coming back from injury, and has been negative towards Justin Upton. I have no idea, but it is possible that the lack of instruction thing isn't anywhere near as bad as that guy made it sound. I'd take a chance on an arm like that. He had some major strike out numbers and was practically unhittable. I think the Indians did extremely well in that deal.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 21, 2012 14:10:04 GMT -5
Bauer didn't have the same control problems in college, and his K rates were astronomical. He was pushed very aggressively by the Diamondbacks, and was walking more batters as the year went on, which is totally understandable for a first-year pro. Hultzen had the same problem, Barnes as well. The transition to the grind of pro ball is tough, and fatigue should be expected. He was one of the best pitchers in the Pacific Coast League, which is a crummy place to be a first year pro. As a general rule, I like any pitcher who can put up a sub-3.00 ERA the PCL. If he's a 21-year old, just a year out of UCLA, striking out 10.6 per nine innings there? Yeah, sign me up.
Also, Bauer fancies himself as a rapper, only he's hilariously bad at it. If that's not charming, I don't know what is.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 21, 2012 14:38:33 GMT -5
Bauer didn't have the same control problems in college, and his K rates were astronomical. He was pushed very aggressively by the Diamondbacks, and was walking more batters as the year went on, which is totally understandable for a first-year pro. Hultzen had the same problem, Barnes as well. The transition to the grind of pro ball is tough, and fatigue should be expected. He was one of the best pitchers in the Pacific Coast League, which is a crummy place to be a first year pro. As a general rule, I like any pitcher who can put up a sub-3.00 ERA the PCL. If he's a 21-year old, just a year out of UCLA, striking out 10.6 per nine innings there? Yeah, sign me up. Also, Bauer fancies himself as a rapper, only he's hilariously bad at it. If that's not charming, I don't know what is. Good analysis. I don't know that people appreciate what some of the leagues in West are like, though they might start to get a hint from the Rockies and what happens to baseballs in that park. In the PCL, Bauer played for Reno, in a division that includes Salt Lake City and Colorado Springs, places where the ball almost floats, along with Tacoma where things get a little heavier, thankfully. Also worth mentioning that the 10.6 K/9 was his low in the minors to date. His first year, split between A+ and AA, it was 15.1. They had to get him out of there before he embarrassed the Leagues. Meanwhile his BB rate has held steady at 4.2/9, not great but there's obviously something there. So yeah, Cleveland may have panned some gold. Meanwhile the bad rap thing is something you can live with - unless he breaks it out in the dugout. But that's what clubhouse leaders are for, right? I'm really starting to get suspicious about the Diamondbacks ownership. There's a lot of weird stuff going on in that franchise given the pronouncements, the willingness to trash different players.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 21, 2012 14:51:43 GMT -5
That being said: if it come out that BC turned down the chance at Bauer then I'll be ticked. Having gotten rid of Matsuzaka, the sox clearly need another starter who will walk the park and not take instruction. Seriously though, I don't understand the love for Bauer. That might be half true, at least. The kid has a fantastic arm and is still young. I think there's a good chance he can improve his control.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 21, 2012 14:51:59 GMT -5
Norm, I agree with everything you said.
Also, if being a crummy rapper is his bad habit, isn't that a GOOD thing? I mean, everyone think back to what your bad habits were at 21. Part of the problem is the negative connotation that rap *still* gets, among old-school types (read: crotchety humorless white dudes) like those who make up Diamondbacks management. Suppose he was in a terrible rock or country band. Would anyone care? Scott Spiezio was in a crummy band and everyone treated it like it was the coolest thing in the world.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 21, 2012 14:52:26 GMT -5
Also, Bauer fancies himself as a rapper, only he's hilariously bad at it. If that's not charming, I don't know what is. Were you in on Glen's thread in the old Throwdown?
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Post by pbgallag on Dec 22, 2012 11:05:44 GMT -5
If Ellsbury has a great year and the Sox don't want to pony up the money then collect the draft pick and be happy with it. His ceiling is higher than JBJs so i'd rather he succeed with the Sox than dump him because room-think is that he'll walk at the end of the season. That being said: if it come out that BC turned down the chance at Bauer then I'll be ticked. Ellsbury wasn't a fit for Arizona and has more trade value than Bauer. The disappointing part is that it sounds like they might have been able to get him for Iglesias based on the return that Arizona got for him.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2012 11:12:43 GMT -5
Towers reportedly REALLY liked Gregorius. That whole three-way deal was basically put together because Gregorius was the guy he wanted. Towers wasn't just trying to get a defense-first shortstop, he was trying to get Gregorius specifically.
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Post by jmei on Dec 22, 2012 11:47:20 GMT -5
Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic ( link): On whether the Diamondbacks might have had interest in Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias before acquiring defensively minded shortstop Didi Gregorius from the Reds in a three-way trade: "The times that I would bounce Iglesias’ name off of [Diamondbacks officials], I’m not sure they were sold that he could hit. That’s kind of been his rep ever since he signed out of Cuba. ... People say that about Gregorius, too," said Piecoro. "[Kevin Towers] saw Gregorius a lot in the [Arizona] Fall League. I think he was absolutely convinced that there’s more offensive potential in there with the bat. The people I’ve talked to with the Diamondbacks, I don’t feel like they feel that way about Iglesias."
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Post by remember04 on Dec 22, 2012 12:01:23 GMT -5
Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic ( link): On whether the Diamondbacks might have had interest in Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias before acquiring defensively minded shortstop Didi Gregorius from the Reds in a three-way trade: "The times that I would bounce Iglesias’ name off of [Diamondbacks officials], I’m not sure they were sold that he could hit. That’s kind of been his rep ever since he signed out of Cuba. ... People say that about Gregorius, too," said Piecoro. "[Kevin Towers] saw Gregorius a lot in the [Arizona] Fall League. I think he was absolutely convinced that there’s more offensive potential in there with the bat. The people I’ve talked to with the Diamondbacks, I don’t feel like they feel that way about Iglesias." I feel Iglesias was rushed through the minors somewhat and this is what happens when you do that. He loses most of his trade value. He's never going to hit for average or power but he does have a decent approach, bat speed and obviously excellent hand eye coordination. He could still hit. I don't know anything about Gregorious but what makes anybody think he may hit?
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Post by seattlesoxfan on Dec 23, 2012 2:51:05 GMT -5
I think that everyone should remember that Iglesias missed alot of time with injuries while also being rushed through the system. I will be interested to see if he can spend most of the year in the minors getting it together. As far as most of the other drivel that is being said... Unless there are 2-3 credible sources that say player 1 was offered for player 2 then I don't believe it. Lester for Meyers straight up??? Come on! His value is at an all-time low! So far I like the club far better than it was at the beginning of the off season!! Tired of hearing people whine about some of the moves. The same people would be bitching if we signed Hamilton and he was hurt or relapsed a few times....
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 24, 2012 9:52:17 GMT -5
Assuming all deals go through here is my Off Season Score Card:
Trading Aviles for Farrell - F (I don't believe in trading a player for a MGR) Napoli - F Dempster - D Gomes - D Uehara - C- Victorino - C Ross - B Ortiz - A Drew - A Hanrahan - A
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Post by remember04 on Dec 24, 2012 10:13:08 GMT -5
We traded Aviles not Aceves for Farrell.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 24, 2012 10:47:43 GMT -5
Competent management is one of those things that's only noticeable when it's lacking. Last year was a case study in that. Dealing a utility player to change that is worth the swap.
Acquiring Farrell was part of a series of changes, it seems. Competent management, culture change in the dressing room, and most importantly providing a competitive team while protecting and continuing to develop the young talent of the organization. It's not a championship team right now, though it could contend if several things break just right. Overall, a bridge year that serves as a seed of change for potential runs in......2015? Can't see it happening sooner unless a middle of the order hitter develops or falls from the sky.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 24, 2012 11:31:34 GMT -5
The sox have signed a bunch of decent players to non awful contracts without really sacrificing any part of the future. Sure, most/all of the FA signs may be overpays, but if people think it would have been a good deal at half the cost, then what's it matter when the cost doesn't seem like it will hamper future signings whatsoever?
With their ability to get under the luxury tax last year and reset, it makes it much easier/financially sound to go over it if necessary in the next 3 years. Their problem last year was that they weren't willing to sacrifice any chance of going over the tax in 3 years, and it cost them dearly, namely to the positive of the MFY with Kuroda.
With the Aviles/Farrell deal, they traded a utility infielder who was a mediocre defensive guy with a decent bat. If they had multiple holes in the IF, then yea, he would have been a great piece to have. But you have a perennial AS player at 2B, one of the best hitting rookies in the AL at 3B and arguably the best defensive SS prospect in all of baseball. The IF really isn't a big concern long term, especially with Xander likely appearing in the next 18-24 months, Gomez/Shaw in the short term, and then a whole slew of guys ready after that in Cecchini, Marrero, Coyle and Vitek
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