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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 14, 2012 9:36:14 GMT -5
First a caveat: There is still one and a half months before Spring Training and three and a half before the start of the season.
So far the Red Sox have added to their roster:
A thirty five year old .500 starting pitcher with a 4.33 ERA for the back of the rotation. A thirty two year old outfielder coming off, admittedly, a poor season. A backup catcher. MAYBE a thirty one year old first baseman (?) with medical issues. A thirty eight RP who has been steady is added to a crowded bullpen. A RH veteran OF who will most likely have to platoon. A shortstop coming off a serious ankle injury but with a decent LH bat. A 34 yr old innings eater SP. A Closer with a high K ratio but lately high BB numbers. A young middle infielder with a good glove and bat but little power.
1.) Does this make you feel comfortable that the team can contend in the AL East and gain a wildcard spot?
2.) If you look at this as a "transition" year ("bridge" is a dirty word), do the additions on short term contracts make you confident that there will be a smooth progression to the prospects?
The premier free agents, Hamilton and Greinke, are off the boards. Anibal is trying to decide between the Cubs and Tigers. Swisher, according to Peter Abraham, didn't see the Sox as a fit and signed with Cleveland. An impact bat in free agency seems further beyond reach.
Do the Sox need to explore the trade route to improve on this roster? The 40 man is full, so somethings got to give to acquire additional help.
Ideas?
Edit: Updated to reflect latest acquisitions.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2012 9:39:39 GMT -5
You realize that on December 1, 2010 the Red Sox had made less moves than this Red Sox team has made.
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Post by jmei on Dec 14, 2012 9:42:08 GMT -5
You forgot Gomes and Uehara.
If Lester and Buchholz bounce back to career norms, the Red Sox will be in the playoff hunt. If they don't, they wouldn't have been in contention even with Greinke and Hamilton. I'm fine with the offseason generally, although I would have preferred Swisher to Victorino. There will be at least one more significant trade by the start of Spring Training.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 14, 2012 9:45:17 GMT -5
I was a lot happier before the Napoli medical issues surfaced. But overall I think their plan is reasonable and they've done a good job of sticking to it. The fact that they're not trying to return the team to contention immediately by gutting the farm system or committing $25m to 36 year old Josh Hamilton is a very good in my mind. It shows they're being realistic, as opposed to some message board geniuses and their brilliant plans to win 95 games next year...
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2012 9:46:41 GMT -5
. A thirty five year old .500 starting pitcher with a 4.33 ERA for the back of the rotation. A thirty two year old outfielder coming off, admittedly, a poor season. A backup catcher. MAYBE a thirty one year old first baseman (?) with medical issues. Why do you look at the career of Dempster instead of the last year, while looking only at the most recent performance of Napoli and Victorino? Dempster's career ERA is inflated by his early career struggles in Cincy before he found his grove in Chicago.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 14, 2012 9:53:16 GMT -5
You forgot Gomes and Uehara. If Lester and Buchholz bounce back to career norms, the Red Sox will be in the playoff hunt. If they don't, they wouldn't have been in contention even with Greinke and Hamilton. I'm fine with the offseason generally, although I would have preferred Swisher to Victorino. There will be at least one more significant trade by the start of Spring Training. Forgot Gomes. Uehara has yet to be announced by the team. That will give the Sox 41 on the roster.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 14, 2012 10:33:13 GMT -5
Why do you look at the career of Dempster instead of the last year, while looking only at the most recent performance of Napoli and Victorino? Dempster's career ERA is inflated by his early career struggles in Cincy before he found his grove in Chicago. Because it makes the signings look worse than they are? If he'd said that they added: A consistent, experienced #3 starter on short money. An above average RF who gives the Red Sox insurance in CF. The best back-up catcher available (if not the best in the league)... it wouldn't really have the same impact. Anyway, what jmei said. This season--the next two really--are all about bounce back performances from the players who were already on the team. If Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury give something closer to what we would have expected from them before last year, the Red Sox will be a good team. If they don't, there's basically nothing that could be done. What I really like about these signing though is that the guys they've added are all "class acts". Normally, I wouldn't care, but because part of the plan is to integrate some youth over the next few years, it might help to have some guys on the team who are good role models.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 14, 2012 11:09:29 GMT -5
Alex Speier has an article today on this same subject> weei.com
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Post by station13 on Dec 14, 2012 11:17:52 GMT -5
I like the bullpen remake with Tazawa and Uehara.
Aceves, Bailey, Melancon and Padilla probably responsible for a dozen losses themselves last season.
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Post by jdb on Dec 14, 2012 11:32:15 GMT -5
Im fine with the offseason but I dont think we were nearly as bad as our record was last year. We were 3.5 games out of the WC at the deadline last year with our 1-3 SPs pitching about as bad as anyone. I think we can contend assuming Buch and Lester get back close to career norms.
Also I love that we kept the farm intact and when they are taking larger roles we can add the big FA piece to complement them in 2 or 3 years since guys like Dempster, Napoli, Victorino, Lackey and Ortiz will be coming off the books. We can only hope someone like Price or Stanton hits the market.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 14, 2012 11:37:55 GMT -5
Too early to tell.
I like the guys signed so far (watch for Victorino's bounce back, seriously), and though I disagree with not pursuing other possible signings, really like the team as a whole. Only problem right now, is that it looks like they're at the bottom of the AL East right now heading into the season. That's why I say it's too early to tell. More than likely there's another move or two of significance yet to come. Maybe they chase Porcello from Detroit (building a deal around the closer that Detroit needs), maybe Ellsbury goes in a deal (or maybe he signs a long-term contract), maybe every fans late night fantasies come true and Stanton is under the tree. Still a lot of moves that could improve this team, short and long term.
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Post by jmei on Dec 14, 2012 11:53:08 GMT -5
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Post by honkbal on Dec 14, 2012 11:58:32 GMT -5
See, the Yankees roster looks eerily similar to the Red Sox to my eyes--except they're older. I'm not sure what to make of the Rays yet. I still can't take the Orioles seriously with that starting pitching. The Blue Jays look pretty good on paper, but I feel like they're counting on bounce back seasons from their roster as much if not more than the Red Sox are...
Not sure how anyone can handicap the AL East at this point. I'm not sure how you could do it once spring training starts, for that matter. Seriously, I think you could make a case for each of those teams winning anywhere between 75 and 95 games and it wouldn't be totally insane (well, okay, I actually can't see the Rays having a losing season, but you never know).
ADD: Great Speier piece, as usual. Not sure I love the descriptions of the offseason's signings as strategy over the short term of being a bet on the return to success of the current roster. The signings were the best way to improve the team in the short term without sacrificing the long term. Whether that improvement drives them up to 80 or 95 wins depends on how much the hold-overs bounce back, yes, but it isn't as if there is much of a choice on that end. Were they going to trade away the entire roster and start over?
Still, obviously that's a nitpick; he goes on to address the same points in his "risk diversification" section.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2012 12:04:20 GMT -5
i would rather have brandon mccarthy than dempster by ALOT. mccarthy is alot younger and has more success against AL east teams than dempster. dempster is old too. mccarthy would have cost alot less than dempster too.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 14, 2012 12:14:40 GMT -5
Yes, Brandon McCarthy has had more success against the AL East than Dempster has. Probably more than Clayton Kershaw as well. That tends to happen when one of the guys you are talking about has spent their career in the AL and the other has been in the NL.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 14, 2012 12:44:06 GMT -5
Yes, Brandon McCarthy has had more success against the AL East than Dempster has. Probably more than Clayton Kershaw as well. That tends to happen when one of the guys you are talking about has spent their career in the AL and the other has been in the NL. ;D
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Post by curll on Dec 14, 2012 12:50:28 GMT -5
Short contracts to veterans who love playing baseball and want to compete? Fine with me.
We certainly see that "Blockbuster!!!!!!" moves don't do shit unless you're getting a bonafide HOF'er (Pujols, Manny, Pedro).
So, unless the Sox can get Clayton Kershaw, this is certainly the right tactic.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 14, 2012 13:06:37 GMT -5
i would rather have brandon mccarthy than dempster by ALOT. mccarthy is alot younger and has more success against AL east teams than dempster. dempster is old too. mccarthy would have cost alot less than dempster too. I really don't understand the obsession with Brandon McCarthy. He's not young in any meaningful way, he's not particularly good, and he's never pitched a full season ever. Seriously, someone explain to me why he's good.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 14, 2012 13:10:44 GMT -5
Short contracts to veterans who love playing baseball and want to compete? Fine with me. We certainly see that "Blockbuster!!!!!!" moves don't do shit unless you're getting a bonafide HOF'er (Pujols, Manny, Pedro).
So, unless the Sox can get Clayton Kershaw, this is certainly the right tactic. Exactly. And if people want to squint really hard and see that kind of player in Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, I guess they're entitled to that but I'm glad the Red Sox aren't doing it.
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Post by benfromma on Dec 14, 2012 14:54:26 GMT -5
No, maybe the plan will be revealed because right now we have improved to about a 75 win team. If other moves are not made that does not get you even a wildcard. What the management does not understand we can wait if there is a plan to build a championship team with youth, trades, and free agency making sound decisions
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2012 15:36:43 GMT -5
. A thirty five year old .500 starting pitcher with a 4.33 ERA for the back of the rotation. A thirty two year old outfielder coming off, admittedly, a poor season. A backup catcher. MAYBE a thirty one year old first baseman (?) with medical issues. Why do you look at the career of Dempster instead of the last year, while looking only at the most recent performance of Napoli and Victorino? Dempster's career ERA is inflated by his early career struggles in Cincy before he found his grove in Chicago. Would this be located among the outfield ivy?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 14, 2012 16:17:48 GMT -5
(Will) Like the Uehara deal (when it's announced).
Like the addition of Ross.
Wasn't excited about giving up players for a manager, but within that rubric like that they didn't give up much of anything and got Farrell in return.
Like DiSarcina as the new AAA manager.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 14, 2012 16:40:13 GMT -5
The most interesting move of the offseason has been the cloning of Jon Lester ;D Now if they can just find a way to get his mojo back ..
But seriously, to me this offseason has been all about filling the roster with decent players. It feels to me like the sort of strategy a team employs when it has no real hope of contending in the immediate future and is just marking time. The more the Sox stuff the roster with players like Ross/Victorino/Napoli/Dempster, the more they are admitting all that is available for them to do is build a decent team - no more than that. The team as it is constructed now has very little breakthrough potential - it's a run-of-the-mill team.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Dec 14, 2012 16:48:56 GMT -5
Exactly. And if people want to squint really hard and see that kind of player in Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, I guess they're entitled to that but I'm glad the Red Sox aren't doing it. I agree. Greinke is a very good pitcher getting great pitcher money. Not a deal I want to strike. I wouldn't be surprised if Hamilton ended up being worth the contract, but on the other hand I also wouldn't be surprised if he just self-destructed. Again, not the type of player on whom I'd want to bet the franchise.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 14, 2012 17:23:52 GMT -5
No, maybe the plan will be revealed because right now we have improved to about a 75 win team. If other moves are not made that does not get you even a wildcard. What the management does not understand we can wait if there is a plan to build a championship team with youth, trades, and free agency making sound decisions Please explain to me how replacing Dempster with Greinke, and Victorino with Hamilton makes up the 10-15 win difference that it would take for this team to be a contender (this is assuming we believe your 75 win estimation of course).
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