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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 24, 2016 7:41:35 GMT -5
Thank god for Wright. We're dead if Price doesn't get it toghether. But I am done with Kelley and Buch days should be numbered. Kelley would be a perfect weapon in the bullpen. He usually gives you a good three that's one turn through the lineup. I guess we should be hopeful of Porcello. If DD gets one more starter at the deadline. I think with Carson and you move Kelley that pen should be solid to me.
I also noticed our bench is depleted because Shaw plays third and Holt plays the outfield. Blake is in AAa so you lose his offense and he was a switch hitter. Young looks terrible. At least the East no one is doing anything.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2016 10:08:17 GMT -5
Even as a Wright fan, I've got to admit he's probably had a bit of sequencing luck (plus extra PBs not counting against his ERA). Is there any easily available metric that treats BABIP and HR as purely skill and then normalizes for LOB%? His LOB% would have ranked second last year among 147 SP with 80 or more IP, so he definitely has had some sequencing luck. The stat you're looking is at BP for subscribers: TAv (EqA) allowed. Wright ranks 31st in MLB among SP with minimum 15 IP.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 24, 2016 12:42:31 GMT -5
Thank god for Wright. We're dead if Price doesn't get it together. But I am done with Kelley and Buch days should be numbered. Kelley would be a perfect weapon in the bullpen. He usually gives you a good three that's one turn through the lineup. I guess we should be hopeful of Porcello. If DD gets one more starter at the deadline. I think with Carson and you move Kelley that pen should be solid to me. I also noticed our bench is depleted because Shaw plays third and Holt plays the outfield. Blake is in AAa so you lose his offense and he was a switch hitter. Young looks terrible. At least the East no one is doing anything. Oh, I don't know. It's only three games, but right now Porcello is at 11 Ks/9, and 1.4 BBs/9, with a ridiculous whip of .931. He's given up five HRs but that's notoriously variable year-to-year. I'd say he's doing OK so far.
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Post by jclmontana on Apr 24, 2016 12:43:08 GMT -5
Even as a Wright fan, I've got to admit he's probably had a bit of sequencing luck (plus extra PBs not counting against his ERA). Is there any easily available metric that treats BABIP and HR as purely skill and then normalizes for LOB%? His LOB% would have ranked second last year among 147 SP with 80 or more IP, so he definitely has had some sequencing luck. The stat you're looking is at BP for subscribers: TAv (EqA) allowed. Wright ranks 31st in MLB among SP with minimum 15 IP. Oh, so should I hold off on plans for my "Steven Wright wins the Cy Young award" celebration? If Wright had less sequencing luck, say middle of the pack, what would his current numbers look like? Or, more importantly, what should we expect going forward? I
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 28, 2016 10:12:24 GMT -5
It's going to be interesting to see what they do when E-Rod and Kelly are both off the DL. Kelly seems to be the odd man out, although Buchholz hasn't really earned his spot in the rotation either. Kelly has options, so I'm still wondering if he will be a starter in AAA or a reliever in MLB (or AAA). I can't see them taking Wright out of the rotation with how well he has been pitching.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 28, 2016 11:05:52 GMT -5
It's going to be interesting to see what they do when E-Rod and Kelly are both off the DL. Kelly seems to be the odd man out, although Buchholz hasn't really earned his spot in the rotation either. Kelly has options, so I'm still wondering if he will be a starter in AAA or a reliever in MLB (or AAA). I can't see them taking Wright out of the rotation with how well he has been pitching. I don't see any way Wright comes out....Kelly has value as a longman in the BP. If Buch throws a stinker tonight VS the Bravos, I can see a DL stint forthcoming, maybe an oblique. Price, E-rod, Porcello, Wright, Buch/Kelly whoever looks better in 5 days. A lot will depend on tonight. Owens needs more marinating.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2016 11:21:43 GMT -5
Why does everyone keep talking about Kelly as a long reliever? As a quick refresher for everyone, here is the normal pecking order of pitchers:
Starter Closer Setup Man Middle Reliever LOOGY/ROOGY Long Reliever
You don't normally demote a guy 5 steps down this ladder all at once. And again, there is nothing special about the long reliever role, it's usually just the worst pitcher who takes the hit. (Note: Knuckleballers are a bit different here due to the higher workload they can handle, not that Farrell would ever take advantage of that properly.)
With a fastball like Kelly's you should be able to handle high leverage innings as a reliever.
However, given that: a) with Smith returning we will have enough people to handle high-leverage innings for the moment; b) Kelly has flashed a lot of potential as a starter when he can put it all together and c) Kelly still had options, the correct course of action seems abundantly clear to me...
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Post by telson13 on Apr 28, 2016 13:09:47 GMT -5
Why does everyone keep talking about Kelly as a long reliever? As a quick refresher for everyone, here is the normal pecking order of pitchers: Starter Closer Setup Man Middle Reliever LOOGY/ROOGY Long Reliever You don't normally demote a guy 5 steps down this ladder all at once. And again, there is nothing special about the long reliever role, it's usually just the worst pitcher who takes the hit. (Note: Knuckleballers are a bit different here due to the higher workload they can handle, not that Farrell would ever take advantage of that properly.) With a fastball like Kelly's you should be able to handle high leverage innings as a reliever. However, given that: a) with Smith returning we will have enough people to handle high-leverage innings for the moment; b) Kelly has flashed a lot of potential as a starter when he can put it all together and c) Kelly still had options, the correct course of action seems abundantly clear to me... Yeah, I don't see a whole lot of value in making Kelly even the 4th/5th option out of the bullpen. Figure that, as of next weekend, it'll be Kimbrel-Koji-Taz-Smith-Hembree-Barnes-Layne +/- Kelly. Hembree's earned his position, no doubt. Barnes has given up hard contact, but he's averaging almost 97, and he's not going to finish the year with a BABIP over .400. So Kelly probably slots in between them. Where's the value in that? Especially if Tazawa pitches every other game again (uggh)? Sixth reliever or sixth starter...AAA rotation makes sense to me. Maybe he figures something out, or at the very least looks useful to a contender at the deadline and brings *some* value in return. If Ian Kennedy is a 5/70 pitcher, Kelly has some value to somebody. Hell, the Pirates could probably turn him into Arrieta lite.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 28, 2016 13:10:19 GMT -5
Why does everyone keep talking about Kelly as a long reliever? As a quick refresher for everyone, here is the normal pecking order of pitchers: Starter Closer Setup Man Middle Reliever LOOGY/ROOGY Long Reliever You don't normally demote a guy 5 steps down this ladder all at once. And again, there is nothing special about the long reliever role, it's usually just the worst pitcher who takes the hit. (Note: Knuckleballers are a bit different here due to the higher workload they can handle, not that Farrell would ever take advantage of that properly.) With a fastball like Kelly's you should be able to handle high leverage innings as a reliever. However, given that: a) with Smith returning we will have enough people to handle high-leverage innings for the moment; b) Kelly has flashed a lot of potential as a starter when he can put it all together and c) Kelly still had options, the correct course of action seems abundantly clear to me... OK....Each of these steps are earned....let's assume he does not make the starting 5 (which is a good possibility). Would you trust him as your closer unseating Kimbrel? How about set-up man unseating Uehara? Even middle relief, would you trust the 7th inning of a one run game to him or Tazawa/Smith? I believe there is value to having a good long man to save the top 4 guys in the pen. Knowing Kelly could give you 3 or 4 innings would be valuable, also in xtra inning games. Looks like depth in Pawtucket will be the way to go, unless we just let Layne go.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 28, 2016 13:29:51 GMT -5
I'm not sure that he'll be even better than Robbie Ross and his 3.13 xFIP so yeah, AAA it is.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2016 13:55:12 GMT -5
His LOB% would have ranked second last year among 147 SP with 80 or more IP, so he definitely has had some sequencing luck. The stat you're looking is at BP for subscribers: TAv (EqA) allowed. Wright ranks 31st in MLB among SP with minimum 15 IP. Oh, so should I hold off on plans for my "Steven Wright wins the Cy Young award" celebration? If Wright had less sequencing luck, say middle of the pack, what would his current numbers look like? Or, more importantly, what should we expect going forward? I I actually said that already, but it wasn't clear. He would have been the 31st best starter in baseball if he had had average sequencing luck. That's a dead-average #2 starter. However, after last night, he ranks #22 out of 140 (3 starts, 13 IP), which is a good #2 starter. Porcello is 43rd, which is just sneaking into #2. Price is 66th (a bit below average #3) and Buchholz is 76th (best #4). Rich Hill, BTW, is 48th.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2016 14:02:34 GMT -5
Why does everyone keep talking about Kelly as a long reliever? As a quick refresher for everyone, here is the normal pecking order of pitchers: Starter Closer Setup Man Middle Reliever LOOGY/ROOGY Long Reliever You don't normally demote a guy 5 steps down this ladder all at once. And again, there is nothing special about the long reliever role, it's usually just the worst pitcher who takes the hit. (Note: Knuckleballers are a bit different here due to the higher workload they can handle, not that Farrell would ever take advantage of that properly.) With a fastball like Kelly's you should be able to handle high leverage innings as a reliever. However, given that: a) with Smith returning we will have enough people to handle high-leverage innings for the moment; b) Kelly has flashed a lot of potential as a starter when he can put it all together and c) Kelly still had options, the correct course of action seems abundantly clear to me... Yeah, I don't see a whole lot of value in making Kelly even the 4th/5th option out of the bullpen. Figure that, as of next weekend, it'll be Kimbrel-Koji-Taz-Smith-Hembree-Barnes-Layne +/- Kelly. Hembree's earned his position, no doubt. Barnes has given up hard contact, but he's averaging almost 97, and he's not going to finish the year with a BABIP over .400. So Kelly probably slots in between them. Where's the value in that? Especially if Tazawa pitches every other game again (uggh)? Sixth reliever or sixth starter...AAA rotation makes sense to me. Maybe he figures something out, or at the very least looks useful to a contender at the deadline and brings *some* value in return. If Ian Kennedy is a 5/70 pitcher, Kelly has some value to somebody. Hell, the Pirates could probably turn him into Arrieta lite. You forgot Ross, who's been great. Kelly can compete with Owens, Elias, and Johnson for the the up-and-down 6th starter role, while at the same time competing with Barnes, Light, Ramirez, and eventually Workman for the up-and-down 8th bullpen arm. Given the frequency of injuries, there will more often than not be a roster spot for one of these guys. And it's possible that the best of the eight turns out to be more valuable than Layne.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 28, 2016 14:16:06 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't see a whole lot of value in making Kelly even the 4th/5th option out of the bullpen. Figure that, as of next weekend, it'll be Kimbrel-Koji-Taz-Smith-Hembree-Barnes-Layne +/- Kelly. Hembree's earned his position, no doubt. Barnes has given up hard contact, but he's averaging almost 97, and he's not going to finish the year with a BABIP over .400. So Kelly probably slots in between them. Where's the value in that? Especially if Tazawa pitches every other game again (uggh)? Sixth reliever or sixth starter...AAA rotation makes sense to me. Maybe he figures something out, or at the very least looks useful to a contender at the deadline and brings *some* value in return. If Ian Kennedy is a 5/70 pitcher, Kelly has some value to somebody. Hell, the Pirates could probably turn him into Arrieta lite. You forgot Ross, who's been great. Kelly can compete with Owens, Elias, and Johnson for the the up-and-down 6th starter role, while at the same time competing with Barnes, Light, Ramirez, and eventually Workman for the up-and-down 8th bullpen arm. Given the frequency of injuries, there will more often than not be a roster spot for one of these guys. And it's possible that the best of the eight turns out to be more valuable than Layne. I did forget Ross, which is a shame after his performance in Atlanta the other night. I think keeping Kelly stretched out for as long as possible is the best way to go. Putting him in the 'pen limits his versatility and lowers his value, unless it's at the MLB level in high-leverage situations, which seems highly unlikely given the current construction of the 'pen. Best-case scenario is that he goes to AAA and forces his way back, then contributes either by pitching like a 3 or getting a significant trade return.
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art
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Post by art on Apr 28, 2016 14:29:40 GMT -5
Farrell was on Sirius XM Radio yesterday and said he'd prefer to go with a 4-man bench rather than an 8-man bullpen. Of course that depends on getting decent innings from the starters. That wouldn't seem to leave any room for Kelly in the pen.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 29, 2016 1:25:52 GMT -5
Buchholz is now walking 4.23 per 9ip, while striking out only 6.18. Those are UGLY ratios. Yes he can be lights out occasionally when healthy, and this is a small sample size, but still...
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Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 29, 2016 8:05:40 GMT -5
Buchholz is now walking 4.23 per 9ip, while striking out only 6.18. Those are UGLY ratios. Yes he can be lights out occasionally when healthy, and this is a small sample size, but still... Agree....He was throwing wild pitches last night for ball four against some pretty poor hitters. Didn't seem he could even throw a BP fastball.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 29, 2016 10:21:54 GMT -5
Hopefully Kelly can get some "rehab" starts in AAA while we see how things shake out. Right now, I'm leaning towards him starting over Buchholz, and finding a spot in the pen (or the DL) for the latter.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 29, 2016 12:17:54 GMT -5
I can't get this out of my head: What if instead of picking Buccholz option, the FO allocated that money to sign Rich Hill to a 2 years contract? They're both an injury risk anyway.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 29, 2016 13:15:15 GMT -5
I can't get this out of my head: What if instead of picking Buccholz option, the FO allocated that money to sign Rich Hill to a 2 years contract? They're both an injury risk anyway. You know the minute we don't sign him he get it all together & go 21-8 with about a 3.50 era for the MFY.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 29, 2016 14:11:54 GMT -5
I can't get this out of my head: What if instead of picking Buccholz option, the FO allocated that money to sign Rich Hill to a 2 years contract? They're both an injury risk anyway. You know the minute we don't sign him he get it all together & go 21-8 with about a 3.50 era for the MFY. I wouldn't have cared at all if the MFY had picked him up. At this point, I am hopeful that the FO is prepared to give him the Pablo treatment....shape up and get your sh*t together or lose your spot in the rotation. There is no excuse for him to be this bad. He has been in the league long enough...not asking him to be # 1 starter....just show me some heart and get the job done.
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Post by sibbysisti on Apr 29, 2016 14:22:23 GMT -5
Before we kick Kelly to the bullpen, I'd wait for another Buchholz appearance. He he continues with his woes, Farrell will have to consider whether he has an "oblique strain" requiring some DL time and rehab starts at Pawtucket. If Kelly's healthy, he goes into Buchholz's spot. Then we figure it out from there. Kelly to Paw, Buch to BP, does Wright continue his dominance?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 1, 2016 10:37:50 GMT -5
Buchholz still has an option actually.
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Post by humanbeingbean on May 1, 2016 10:51:10 GMT -5
If you could organize the rotation however you pleased at this moment, and you can include E-Rod, what would you want it to look like? I'd go with Price/Porcello/Rodriguez/Buchholz/Wright, and I think that rotation, with how everybody's currently pitching (and with E-Rod coming back), I think that's a very solid rotation. Porcello is solidifying himself as the number 2 we needed, and Wright is throwing a lot of quality innings. If Buchholz keeps throwing inconsistently, maybe we'll see Johnson or Owens getting more reps, but it isn't like they'll stash Clay in the bullpen. Maybe how well everybody's playing will motivate Buchholz to push himself even further, or maybe even Dombrowksi will cut ties if he keeps underperforming. I don't think Dave will be afraid to take drastic measures.
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Post by ray88h66 on May 1, 2016 11:00:46 GMT -5
Buchholz still has an option actually. I could be wrong but don't think that means much. I'd be fine with him taking free agency over going down.I think the Sox pay him 14 plus no matter how he pitches, but he's done here after this year.
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2016 11:30:58 GMT -5
Buchholz still has an option actually. I could be wrong but don't think that means much. I'd be fine with him taking free agency over going down.I think the Sox pay him 14 plus no matter how he pitches, but he's done here after this year. That's just not true. Sorry you hate him so much, but he's not going anywhere and his option will be picked up because of how much pitching costs. Some team would give him way more than 1/$13 million if he were a free agent. A lot of people were ready to dump Porcello last year too.
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