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5/16-5/18 Red Sox @ Royals Series Thread
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 17, 2016 15:36:01 GMT -5
Looking @ this team it looks very complete. The only glaring need is for a second frontline pitcher. We all see it......Blake Swihart is gone by the deadline. He is the only one of our top 5 who doesn't have a clear path (like Margot). I just hope we don't get a "fringe" #3.....Matz feels like a good trade even with his sore elbow.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on May 17, 2016 15:44:10 GMT -5
According to Farrell Kelly will likely get the start Saturday and ERod will stay in AAA due to soreness, they will take it slow with him for now. You can almost see Dombrowski's trigger finger getting itchy. Prob making queries about Velasquez, Fernandez and Nola right now. We are probably going to need to trade for an arm anyway with our pitching prospects years away and not much on the free agent pitching market this offseason. To me the bigger question is if they want a rental player/sign and trade guy or a younger arm that will cost big. We are probably going to need to trade for an arm anyway with our pitching prospects years away and not much on the free agent pitching market this offseason. To me the bigger question is if they want a rental player/sign and trade guy or a younger arm that will cost big. To me the big question now is who's going. It's obvious they need pitching, and I just don't see DD hesitating to ship out a couple of top 10 to get one. I'm no prospect hoarder, but it's quite something to see a homegrown team come together, as this year has shown. Beats high-priced mercenaries every day of the week. Man, I'm not looking forward to the trade deadline. Can we stop with this nonsense? You don't need an extra pitcher unless: 1A) Both Joe Kelly and Clay Buchholz turn out to suck or 1B) One of them sucks and Eduardo Rodriguez turns out to suck, too and 2) Neither Owens, Johnson, or Elias steps up unexpectedly. Now, 2 is unlikely and I threw it in just to be thorough. But the odds are against Buchholz sucking, the odds are against Kelly sucking, and the odds are very much against E-Rod sucking. And the price you pay for an extra SP will represent the marginal upgrade of that guy over a typical struggling MLB 5th starter (translation: suck), because that is what most teams shopping for pitching have in that role. So trading for a pitcher makes sense only if you do this: 1) Arrange E-Rod, Buchholz, and Kelly in order of quality 2) See that the second best of the trio is a typical struggling 5th starter, a guy who is hurting you in the rotation. A guy who sucks. The actual odds are that the second best of the trio will be a perfectly solid mid-rotation starter, for whom a new SP would represent a very modest upgrade not remotely worth the acquisition price.
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Post by Guidas on May 17, 2016 16:04:04 GMT -5
Define "suck" please.
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Post by jmei on May 17, 2016 16:09:10 GMT -5
To be even more thorough, if one or more of Price/Porcello/Wright suck, that might suggest a trade as well.
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Post by bosox89 on May 17, 2016 16:30:16 GMT -5
JBJ hitting 7th and Holt 9th tonight.
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Post by mgoetze on May 17, 2016 16:36:48 GMT -5
Any word on who will pitch early/late tomorrow? If it's Wright early I'll want to be home to watch the game, else I might go out for dinner.
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Post by mgoetze on May 17, 2016 16:39:38 GMT -5
To be even more thorough, if one or more of Price/Porcello/Wright suck, that might suggest a trade as well. How bad would Price/Porcello have to suck for you to move them to the pen? Keeping in mind that they are still signed for a couple of years and would probably resent such a move... Or do you have an alternate way of getting them out of the way in mind?
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Post by jclmontana on May 17, 2016 16:42:57 GMT -5
Can we stop with this nonsense? You don't need an extra pitcher unless: 1A) Both Joe Kelly and Clay Buchholz turn out to suck or 1B) One of them sucks and Eduardo Rodriguez turns out to suck, too and 2) Neither Owens, Johnson, or Elias steps up unexpectedly. Now, 2 is unlikely and I threw it in just to be thorough. But the odds are against Buchholz sucking, the odds are against Kelly sucking, and the odds are very much against E-Rod sucking. And the price you pay for an extra SP will represent the marginal upgrade of that guy over a typical struggling MLB 5th starter (translation: suck), because that is what most teams shopping for pitching have in that role. So trading for a pitcher makes sense only if you do this: 1) Arrange E-Rod, Buchholz, and Kelly in order of quality 2) See that the second best of the trio is a typical struggling 5th starter, a guy who is hurting you in the rotation. A guy who sucks. The actual odds are that the second best of the trio will be a perfectly solid mid-rotation starter, for whom a new SP would represent a very modest upgrade not remotely worth the acquisition price. There is a pretty interesting article/transcript of a discussion over at Slate.com about Nate Silver's prognostications about the republican primary. Silver, rather infamously at this point, pretty much downplayed any possibility of Trump becoming the Republican nominee. What I find applicable in the link is the discussion of the fine line between punditry and "data journalism." Eric, when you use numbers and back them up, even when they are really SSS or kinda out there, I think you bring a lot to this board. What I have a problem with is the kind of thing you did above, the bolded parts. That is not data driven, it is opinion--punditry--disguised as analytics. I don't mind you or anyone else having an opinion, but don't try to gussy it up with some pseudo-analytic verbiage. And, if I may make one other observation, I think the amount of condescension and arrogance in your posts skyrockets whenever you stray from analytics into punditry. Of course, that is my opinion, my impression, and i don't have the data to back up that opinion, just like you don't have the data to back up your use of the word "odds" above. Sorry, genuinely sorry, if this comes off as too harsh; like i said, I value you contributions to this board (and I have been lurking here here since 2005-2006ish). But I guess I will risk that and post it anyway. .
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Post by jmei on May 17, 2016 16:48:50 GMT -5
To be even more thorough, if one or more of Price/Porcello/Wright suck, that might suggest a trade as well. How bad would Price/Porcello have to suck for you to move them to the pen? Keeping in mind that they are still signed for a couple of years and would probably resent such a move... Or do you have an alternate way of getting them out of the way in mind? It's not that they would move Price/Porcello to the bullpen and have to replace them in the rotation. It's that if those two guys struggle, the rotation as a whole looks like a weakness that has to be bolstered.
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Post by thursty on May 17, 2016 16:55:36 GMT -5
Any word on who will pitch early/late tomorrow? If it's Wright early I'll want to be home to watch the game, else I might go out for dinner. Wright slated to start day game
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on May 17, 2016 16:58:49 GMT -5
Or, if Price and Porcello don't carry the load and are mediocre to bad (which Price pretty much has been so far) the Sox will sink, because hitting can carry you only so far, and then they might become sellers rather than buyers at the deadline.
They could use more depth in the farm system. There's strength at the top, then a huge dropoff.
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Post by blizzards39 on May 17, 2016 17:40:01 GMT -5
SONNY GRAY
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 17, 2016 17:56:55 GMT -5
You can almost see Dombrowski's trigger finger getting itchy. Prob making queries about Velasquez, Fernandez and Nola right now. We are probably going to need to trade for an arm anyway with our pitching prospects years away and not much on the free agent pitching market this offseason. To me the bigger question is if they want a rental player/sign and trade guy or a younger arm that will cost big. To me the big question now is who's going. It's obvious they need pitching, and I just don't see DD hesitating to ship out a couple of top 10 to get one. I'm no prospect hoarder, but it's quite something to see a homegrown team come together, as this year has shown. Beats high-priced mercenaries every day of the week. Man, I'm not looking forward to the trade deadline. Can we stop with this nonsense? You don't need an extra pitcher unless: 1A) Both Joe Kelly and Clay Buchholz turn out to suck or 1B) One of them sucks and Eduardo Rodriguez turns out to suck, too and 2) Neither Owens, Johnson, or Elias steps up unexpectedly. Now, 2 is unlikely and I threw it in just to be thorough. But the odds are against Buchholz sucking, the odds are against Kelly sucking, and the odds are very much against E-Rod sucking. And the price you pay for an extra SP will represent the marginal upgrade of that guy over a typical struggling MLB 5th starter (translation: suck), because that is what most teams shopping for pitching have in that role. So trading for a pitcher makes sense only if you do this: 1) Arrange E-Rod, Buchholz, and Kelly in order of quality 2) See that the second best of the trio is a typical struggling 5th starter, a guy who is hurting you in the rotation. A guy who sucks. The actual odds are that the second best of the trio will be a perfectly solid mid-rotation starter, for whom a new SP would represent a very modest upgrade not remotely worth the acquisition price. ERod is hurt, Buchholz gets hurt a lot and Kelly is just coming off an injury. I also stressed that we may need a starter in the off season but the free agent market is pretty dry so you might as well trade for one.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on May 17, 2016 18:41:01 GMT -5
Can we stop with this nonsense? You don't need an extra pitcher unless: 1A) Both Joe Kelly and Clay Buchholz turn out to suck or 1B) One of them sucks and Eduardo Rodriguez turns out to suck, too and 2) Neither Owens, Johnson, or Elias steps up unexpectedly. Now, 2 is unlikely and I threw it in just to be thorough. But the odds are against Buchholz sucking, the odds are against Kelly sucking, and the odds are very much against E-Rod sucking. And the price you pay for an extra SP will represent the marginal upgrade of that guy over a typical struggling MLB 5th starter (translation: suck), because that is what most teams shopping for pitching have in that role. So trading for a pitcher makes sense only if you do this: 1) Arrange E-Rod, Buchholz, and Kelly in order of quality 2) See that the second best of the trio is a typical struggling 5th starter, a guy who is hurting you in the rotation. A guy who sucks. The actual odds are that the second best of the trio will be a perfectly solid mid-rotation starter, for whom a new SP would represent a very modest upgrade not remotely worth the acquisition price. There is a pretty interesting article/transcript of a discussion over at Slate.com about Nate Silver's prognostications about the republican primary. Silver, rather infamously at this point, pretty much downplayed any possibility of Trump becoming the Republican nominee. What I find applicable in the link is the discussion of the fine line between punditry and "data journalism." Eric, when you use numbers and back them up, even when they are really SSS or kinda out there, I think you bring a lot to this board. What I have a problem with is the kind of thing you did above, the bolded parts. That is not data driven, it is opinion--punditry--disguised as analytics. I don't mind you or anyone else having an opinion, but don't try to gussy it up with some pseudo-analytic verbiage. And, if I may make one other observation, I think the amount of condescension and arrogance in your posts skyrockets whenever you stray from analytics into punditry. Of course, that is my opinion, my impression, and i don't have the data to back up that opinion, just like you don't have the data to back up your use of the word "odds" above. Sorry, genuinely sorry, if this comes off as too harsh; like i said, I value you contributions to this board (and I have been lurking here here since 2005-2006ish). But I guess I will risk that and post it anyway. . I think that's really fair. No offense taken at all. You know when I post like that? When people repeat the same emotionally-driven claims that I've been arguing rationally against, and state them as facts. So I just state my side with more authority than it deserves, pretty much out of pure frustration. Of course it comes across as arrogance, since I'm essentially dropping down to the that level of, here's my opinion, treat it as fact. The truth is that a thorough analysis quite probably indicates that the odds are against the Sox needing to trade for a SP. Talking about whom we might need to trade for if it happens otherwise is perfectly legitimate. Moaning now about the inevitable decimation of the farm system from the trade that is certainly coming is not. And the negativity that underlies such thinking is really, really a drag. We heard the same doubt all winter about Porcello and Wright, after all. Let's go back to some facts: -- David Price is in an 8-way tie for 121st in bWAR/GS among 155 MLB starters with 4 or more GS. -- Clay Buchholz is off to his usual craptastic start and is also part of that tie (as is Sonny Gray, BTW). -- Eduardo Rodriguez is hurt and has yet to pitch an inning. -- Joe Kelly got shelled in 3 starts (-3.0 bWAR pace, per 30 GS!) and went on the DL. -- Henry Owens got a shot and was so wild that, despite his stuff, he was just replacement level, so he was sent back down after 3 starts. -- Brian Johnson and Roenis Elias haven't even pitched well enough to get a shot, so that the Sox had to turn to Sean O'Sullivan for a pair of starts. Which would project to -6.0 bWAR over a full season. How big a clusterfun is that? Do the Sox have the worst SP in baseball, or close to it? Going into the season, wouldn't you have guessed that, if you knew the above would be true as of May 17? -- In fact, in the ultimate rank of starting pitching value, Win Probability Added, the Sox starting staff ranks 10th in MLB. They only rank 16th in ERA- (which, given the above, is still kind of amazing), but the disparity tells you that the staff ERA has been grossly inflated by a handful of shellackings where the additional RA by the starter, once the game was essentially decided, didn't make the odds of winning much worse. The sky, folks, is not falling. It may be held up by spirit gum and duct tape, but it's sure not falling.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on May 17, 2016 19:20:15 GMT -5
This organization hasn't shown an ability to homegrow pitchers lately though. If they did, a trade wouldnt be needed. Luckily Dombrowski has a pretty good track record with these trades. Have we forgotten Derelict Dave traded Randy Johnson for Mark Langston?
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 17, 2016 19:27:30 GMT -5
You know, I enjoy watching Hanley play this year, but he's developing quite a habit for snatching his catch of throws to first base ... makes me nervous.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2016 19:28:58 GMT -5
Eck confusing Hosmer's numbers and Cain's (the 3 HR game in NY) lol
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Post by telson13 on May 17, 2016 19:36:16 GMT -5
Apparently Ron Kulpa sent out a memo that all umps are adhering to: if the ball is over the plate but doesn't scuff it, it's a strike to Ortiz. I'm waiting for someone to Nuke Laloosh one 8 feet up, because I still think it's 50/50 on a called strike there, too.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2016 19:37:21 GMT -5
OPPO JBJ!
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2016 19:40:23 GMT -5
CV, that was the most non competitive AB of the season heh
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Post by thursty on May 17, 2016 19:55:23 GMT -5
9 GIDP for Pedroia; pulling outside pitches
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2016 19:56:42 GMT -5
Dustin Pedroia now with 9 GDP (leading the majors), Mookie needs to start stealing as soon as he gets to first base.
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Post by jchang on May 17, 2016 20:11:23 GMT -5
The scouting on Shaw was that he had below average bat speed so he would have difficulty with mlb fastballs. Guess he learned how to handle it.
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Post by bosox89 on May 17, 2016 20:22:32 GMT -5
JBJ has been pretty bad defensively this year, very stupid play right there.
edit: and it costs them a double play and 2 runs
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Post by ajs1994 on May 17, 2016 20:24:10 GMT -5
Some real bad babip luck for Porcello that inning. Don't actually think he's pitched that poorly.
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