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Red Sox Select LHP Jason Groome (ADD: signed for $3.65M)
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Post by larrycook on Jun 28, 2016 15:31:46 GMT -5
The agent can ask for all he wants. I just can't see Jason giving up a years worth of development & getting to a MLB payday one year sooner over a few hundred thousand. I the kid wants to sign, he'll sign. He knows if he goes to JuCo he may blow his arm out & be in the 3rd round (or worse) next year. As also been stated, he'd be making a big mistake by not signing and going to juco to re-enter next year's draft. No guarantee he'll go in the top 5. The draft has better prospects next year so he'd have to be lights out just to get his $5-$6mil. Next year has a ton of outstanding college arms coming out. Unless jayson is lights out at Juco, he might actually lose money on the deal,
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Post by azblue on Jun 28, 2016 16:37:17 GMT -5
There are sooooo many signs that Groome's advisor is out of his league....no significant clients, comes from the same geographic area...has been hanging on the Groome family for years...and on and on.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jun 28, 2016 16:40:46 GMT -5
Watch the Sox not sign Groome and also trade the top five for pitching.
Kidding, but scared that could happen...
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Post by thebogeyman on Jun 28, 2016 16:41:01 GMT -5
As also been stated, he'd be making a big mistake by not signing and going to juco to re-enter next year's draft. No guarantee he'll go in the top 5. The draft has better prospects next year so he'd have to be lights out just to get his $5-$6mil. Next year has a ton of outstanding college arms coming out. Unless jayson is lights out at Juco, he might actually lose money on the deal, I wonder if the Sox are using this as negotiating leverage. They have very little to lose compared to what he has to lose. I think it would be very difficult to turn down a final offer in the 3.8-4 mil range. I supoose he could buy a big insurance policy to protect against injury, which would mean the risk is poor performance and a seemingly strong class.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 28, 2016 17:13:18 GMT -5
Next year has a ton of outstanding college arms coming out. Unless jayson is lights out at Juco, he might actually lose money on the deal, I wonder if the Sox are using this as negotiating leverage. They have very little to lose compared to what he has to lose. I think it would be very difficult to turn down a final offer in the 3.8-4 mil range. I supoose he could buy a big insurance policy to protect against injury, which would mean the risk is poor performance and a seemingly strong class. There has been very little reported on the state of the current negotiations that I have found, but I can not believe the sox are not pursuing a contract with him. But at the end of the day, you would hope jayson's agent is working with his client's best interest at heart and not to make a name for himself. The sports agent landscape is littered with hundred's of "the next Boris" lawyers who flamed out and left their client's worse off. I am hopeful jayson and his family understand this.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 28, 2016 17:22:53 GMT -5
Watch the Sox not sign Groome and also trade the top five for pitching. Kidding, but scared that could happen... As was stated several times around the time he joined the sox, Dombrowski was in full on "win now" mode in Detroit with an owner who desperately wanted a championship before he dies. The sox aren't, so I'm pretty confident you'll see a more patient approach.
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 18:00:04 GMT -5
There are sooooo many signs that Groome's advisor is out of his league....no significant clients, comes from the same geographic area...has been hanging on the Groome family for years...and on and on. I actually think the less established his advisor is, the more likely it is that this is empty saber-rattling, and at the end of the day, assuming Boston's offer is enough that it doesn't make financial sense to turn it down and hope he'll be a top-5 pick next year, Groome accepts the offer. If this is his (the agent's) big payday, he's not going to risk it all for a slight chance of a little more money next year.
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Post by templeusox on Jun 28, 2016 18:26:15 GMT -5
“@chriscotillo: Source: Red Sox not close to deal with #12 overall pick Jason Groome at this point. Still time before 7/15 deadline.” This means nothing. It will get done.
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Post by MLBDreams on Jun 28, 2016 18:48:47 GMT -5
Do Jason have heart for playing his favorite team despite the gap between him & the team with contract agreements? Who's more greedy? Him or his agent? Did he know the history of Matt Harrington? Jason was only 2 yr old when it happened for Matt. I'd tell him to dial his number and he'll tell him to take it no matter what. Matt missed out based on 950K gap between his agent & the team for agreements. One mil gap isn't end the world for him (4 mil vs 5 mil). Blame SD for it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 28, 2016 21:29:09 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 28, 2016 21:46:27 GMT -5
Cotillo seems to be carving a niche as a pre-pubescent Jon Heyman.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 28, 2016 22:24:08 GMT -5
I'd offer $4 mil and give him a deadline. If he can do basic math he should understand the probability of getting more than that by waiting until next year is not cost effective. He would be lucky to maintain his value and it could well tank. We have seen so many instances of this happening and we even have one guy who turned down $2 mil or so in the current system as a high schooler and then had arm problems and has never really recovered. I don't like using the word stupid but it is clear as hell that it makes no sense for him to wait if he gets even a $4 mil offer. All the factors involved from being a pitcher, a high school pitcher, next year's crop being projected as good, who knows where he will be in terms of value next year and who would pick him. Take the freaking money and start the career. Be smart.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Jun 28, 2016 22:51:07 GMT -5
“@chriscotillo: Source: Red Sox not close to deal with #12 overall pick Jason Groome at this point. Still time before 7/15 deadline.” This means nothing. It will get done. Agreed. They knew what they were getting into. And they are not going to walk away from this type of talent.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 29, 2016 0:55:26 GMT -5
I'd offer $4 mil and give him a deadline. There already is a deadline. Do you feel the need to move it? If so, why?
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Post by jchang on Jun 29, 2016 7:50:25 GMT -5
Lets say we sign the 2-10 draftees and have $4M left of cap + 5% that could be offered to Groome. Of this, 3,192,800 is slot, 159,640 is 5% of that, totaling 3,352,440 on the #12 + 5%, meaning 647k comes from the savings from the 2-10. I would offer total remainder of Cap plus 5% to Groome with a deadline of 7/14, after which the 647K starts getting offered to the interesting round 11+ draftees and Groome can take it or leave it on #12 slot + 5% (3,352,440)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2016 9:12:52 GMT -5
This is such a joke. "A baseball source" is probably "I asked him via DM"
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Post by azblue on Jun 29, 2016 9:41:14 GMT -5
A baseball source is probably Groome's advisor. The Red Sox are not talking to Cotillo. No other team would know.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 29, 2016 10:08:29 GMT -5
There's no way that they do not know the Sox can't really go past 4 million given their bonus pool. This just feels like posturing. "large gap" for all we know could 100% mean we are going to sign but lets see if we can get another 100k-200K. But I can't completely rule out the new agent not knowing what he's doing and screwing things up factor.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 29, 2016 10:17:46 GMT -5
It's all noise until the 14th (day before deadline). Deadlines spur action.
We knew he'd be a late sign.
We knew it would be a tough negotiation.
We knew the Red Sox would deal with the rest of its draft board before the Groome negotiation. Until Anderson, Dalbec, Shawaryn and Espinal are signed, there is no Groome negotiation. Once they are done, the maximum number that Groome can realistically ask for is set in stone.
We knew the Red Sox would line up options to spend the remaining draft monies if the Groome negotiation goes sideways. There is currently $5.8mm available under the cap+5%. If Anderson, Dalbec, Shawaryn and Espinal are signed at slot, there will be approximately $4.075mm available under the cap+5%. If Groome doesn't sign, that number drops to approx. $725k, which can then be used to sign round 11+ players.
There's a dance going on. The Red Sox know the steps. Presumably, Randazzo (Groome's advisor) also knows the steps.
Nothing to see here.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 29, 2016 10:24:50 GMT -5
Just a thought, if the Red Sox signed their top ten picks and Quintana, Bramlett, Stephan, Shepherd, Fitzgerald, Jones, Belge, Hardy, Bergner, would it be worth giving up two years of first round picks?
I'd say no, and I don't think the Red Sox even considered this a possibility, based on how they drafted rounds 2-20, but I do think there is an argument that going 15% over could have worked out. If there was ever a time to try to game the 15%+ penalty I think it would be when you get a Groome like player at #12. I also expect the Red Sox to not finish in the lower half the next two years and see a likely possibility of signing a QO the next two years, which lessens the penalty. The risk is probably too great to ever try, but it's something I personally like to ponder.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2016 11:00:42 GMT -5
I hate the signing period. There is no information that we really know is real other than signing announcements.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 29, 2016 11:19:03 GMT -5
This is another data point that could be added to the Groome negotiations:
Jim Callis @jimcallismlb 1st-rder Blake Rutherford signs w/@yankees for $3,282,000 (pick 18 = $2,441,600). Calif HS, nice bat/power/run, likely RF. @mlbdraft
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 29, 2016 22:13:25 GMT -5
I'm saying offer him $4 mil and an arbitrary deadline a couple days before the official deadline and if he doesn't sign use what money is available ( I'm aware not all of it is transferable ) to sign some of the tough sign guys they have lined up. I thought after they picked Groome that they would select some other tough signs as back up options, and they did, but I'm not that excited with the back up options. I'd prefer to sign Groome. All that said though it doesn't take too many instances where you walk Boras style before the org gets a reputation as a tough negotiator. That is worth a lot in itself. It is important people know the org is tough enough to walk.
I don't think our options are good enough to go all in and over the penalty. If we were going to do that we should have gone ALL IN with more top tough sign picks, maybe even selecting some of them in the 3rd round...etc to insure you get access to the best ones. At some point I think that does happen. I don't see it this year though. I don't like that option very much anyway but in some instances I think it might make sense. This is similar to that sort of instance but not there. If you are drafting low and expect to draft low for a while, and you have a chance to sign 7-8 top guys with over slot signings maybe you consider it especially if one guy is extra special. That extra special guy might be worth $200 mil. For example, Bryce Harper is saying he requires $10 mil to sign and he falls to the Sox at #16.....
Groome is still a high school pitcher. If he won't take $4 mil I think that would be extremely ill advised. There are other terms for it but I'm trying to be polite. He won the lottery. He doesn't have to cash that ticket today but it's extremely likely to be in his interest to cash it in at $4 mil. It probably will be for less if he waits. Yes, even probably. A lot can happen in a year of JUCO and often does. It sure as hell isn't worth the risk, particularly for his family.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 30, 2016 2:37:45 GMT -5
As also been stated, he'd be making a big mistake. by not signing and going to juco to re-enter next year's draft. No guarantee he'll go in the top 5. The draft has better prospects next year so he'd have to be lights out just to get his $5-$6mil. Next year has a ton of outstanding college arms coming out. Unless jayson is lights out at Juco, he might actually lose money on the deal, Personal aside. I am often impressed with the quality and balance of your posts, and looked up your profile for the first time. Wow. 23. You are wiser than your years.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2016 7:31:36 GMT -5
We need to ignore the rumors. They aren't close to signing him yet because it's not near the deadline. They have probably barely talked. I'm sure they exchanged numbers and maybe had another quick talk but they don't sit and negotiate for all this time or all that often. They talk then it goes silent until shortly before the deadline. I'm sure some one asked a person close to Groome and were told they aren't even close.
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