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Post by patford on Jun 26, 2018 12:39:02 GMT -5
You'll love that plan until the home runs start flying out of the park. That's literally the plan for pitchers in the low minors. Well, the question then becomes how good is his stuff. From what I've seen this year, his stuff is plenty good to pitch more within the zone than trying to live on the black. I agree. That said we don't know one way or the other until he stops nibbling. He has the control to throw more strikes.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 26, 2018 12:56:08 GMT -5
Someone needs to sit Rodriguez down and tell him to throw strikes. Tell him to forget about getting hit and throw the ball over the middle of the plate if that is what it takes. It isn't like he is wild and throws the ball over the place with no apparent plan. He just seems top want to live on the black and he's either just missing or not getting the calls. When that happens a pitcher becomes far less likely to get the benefit of the doubt on anything close. The same is true of Sale. And Sale's last two starts are indicative of how pounding the zone is the way to go. It puts a lot of pressure on the hitter when they know that every pitch is going to be a strike of borderline and a pitcher who throws tons of strikes is not going to see the umpire reward hitters for standing there with the bat on their shoulder.
I have to think that it is difficult for a young pitcher to embrace pitching to contact. I am in agreement with those who believe he is on the verge of ace status but then again I am the eternal optimist.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 26, 2018 13:21:50 GMT -5
Well, the question then becomes how good is his stuff. From what I've seen this year, his stuff is plenty good to pitch more within the zone than trying to live on the black. I agree. That said we don't know one way or the other until he stops nibbling. He has the control to throw more strikes. I'm honestly curious why you think his problems are approach rather than skill? That he's nibbling, rather than missing the plate by accident? It's not like he had standout walk rates against inferior competition in the minors and then got squeamish in the majors. His walk rate has been within a consistent range throughout his pro career, and his 2018 numbers are on the lower end of that range.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 26, 2018 16:17:24 GMT -5
Yeah I never understand "someone needs to tell this guy to throw strikes." Do we think he does not know that strikes are good and balls are bad?
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Post by telson13 on Jun 26, 2018 16:24:06 GMT -5
Yeah I never understand "someone needs to tell this guy to throw strikes." Do we think he does not know that strikes are good and balls are bad? In fairness, some pitchers do need to be encouraged/reassures re: trusting their stuff and attacking the zone. Rodriguez has similar O-swing and Z-sw to Pomeranz, with mediocre O-swing #s in particular, suggesting batters aren’t especially fooled, but they’re not completely laying off either. Idk what his issue is, beyond general inefficiency/ low Z% overall. Watching him it feels like nibbling but I don’t have hard evidence.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 26, 2018 17:32:01 GMT -5
Is there a stat that shows how frequently/badly a pitcher misses?...something like % of quality pitches. E-Rod has, in my view, a high % of pitches that are wasted and not "waste pitches". Like any pitcher he tries to hit the corners..i.e. quality pitches. But for every 'just a bit outside', he is way out or way in. Every at bat is a struggle.
He seems to miss east and west more so I wondered about inconsistent mechanics. It would be a shame, with his overall stuff, to see it never harnessed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 26, 2018 19:32:38 GMT -5
Yeah I never understand "someone needs to tell this guy to throw strikes." Do we think he does not know that strikes are good and balls are bad? In fairness, some pitchers do need to be encouraged/reassures re: trusting their stuff and attacking the zone. Rodriguez has similar O-swing and Z-sw to Pomeranz, with mediocre O-swing #s in particular, suggesting batters aren’t especially fooled, but they’re not completely laying off either. Idk what his issue is, beyond general inefficiency/ low Z% overall. Watching him it feels like nibbling but I don’t have hard evidence. I agree with James in this case that this might be a case of skill versus not trusting his stuff. His command is probably what's going to hold him back from becoming a TOR starter.
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Post by patford on Jun 26, 2018 19:52:36 GMT -5
I agree. That said we don't know one way or the other until he stops nibbling. He has the control to throw more strikes. I'm honestly curious why you think his problems are approach rather than skill? That he's nibbling, rather than missing the plate by accident? It's not like he had standout walk rates against inferior competition in the minors and then got squeamish in the majors. His walk rate has been within a consistent range throughout his pro career, and his 2018 numbers are on the lower end of that range. When I follow him pitch by pitch it looks like he is close with a lot of pitches. He isn't wild. Neither was Dice-K. He needs to challenge hitters more, have more trust in his stuff. Perhaps I am mistaken. Maybe his control is poor.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 26, 2018 21:11:03 GMT -5
In fairness, some pitchers do need to be encouraged/reassures re: trusting their stuff and attacking the zone. Rodriguez has similar O-swing and Z-sw to Pomeranz, with mediocre O-swing #s in particular, suggesting batters aren’t especially fooled, but they’re not completely laying off either. Idk what his issue is, beyond general inefficiency/ low Z% overall. Watching him it feels like nibbling but I don’t have hard evidence. I agree with James in this case that this might be a case of skill versus not trusting his stuff. His command is probably what's going to hold him back from becoming a TOR starter. Entirely possible; 3-4 years seems to be a big tipping point re: command development, though. Remains to be seen if he takes the next step.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 26, 2018 21:45:32 GMT -5
I'm honestly curious why you think his problems are approach rather than skill? That he's nibbling, rather than missing the plate by accident? It's not like he had standout walk rates against inferior competition in the minors and then got squeamish in the majors. His walk rate has been within a consistent range throughout his pro career, and his 2018 numbers are on the lower end of that range. Maybe his control is poor.
It's not poor, it's just not elite. I think that's what drives people nuts here.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2018 13:30:27 GMT -5
I agree with James in this case that this might be a case of skill versus not trusting his stuff. His command is probably what's going to hold him back from becoming a TOR starter. Entirely possible; 3-4 years seems to be a big tipping point re: command development, though. Remains to be seen if he takes the next step. Feels like there's a huge survivorship bias here. Way more pitchers succumb to injury and/or diminished stuff after three or four years in the bigs than make a leap forward in their command while retaining their stuff. I don't know, it's possible that Eduardo has a big step forward coming, but I don't think it's something you can really predict is going to happen. It doesn't need to, though. As long as he can stay healthy, he's a solid #3 at least. The thing I really like about him is, unlike Pomeranz or Porcello, there's not a lot of mucking around with his arsenal. Pomeranz has always been plagued by the need for a third pitch to back up the fastball/curveball combo. Never could develop a change, had a cutter that was working for him for a while but he's gotten away from it a bit. Porcello has a bunch of pitches, none of them all that great. He tries to mix that four seamer in which kind of works for him, but when he throws it too much it gets exposed and punished. Eduardo though has pretty much always been able rely on that fastball/slider/changeup trio, which is a pretty complete arsenal on it's own, and he seems to trust all three pitches. The health is iffy to me still, a step forward in command isn't something you can count on, but the pitches are there, and that's huge.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 27, 2018 23:12:08 GMT -5
Entirely possible; 3-4 years seems to be a big tipping point re: command development, though. Remains to be seen if he takes the next step. Feels like there's a huge survivorship bias here. Way more pitchers succumb to injury and/or diminished stuff after three or four years in the bigs than make a leap forward in their command while retaining their stuff. I don't know, it's possible that Eduardo has a big step forward coming, but I don't think it's something you can really predict is going to happen. It doesn't need to, though. As long as he can stay healthy, he's a solid #3 at least. The thing I really like about him is, unlike Pomeranz or Porcello, there's not a lot of mucking around with his arsenal. Pomeranz has always been plagued by the need for a third pitch to back up the fastball/curveball combo. Never could develop a change, had a cutter that was working for him for a while but he's gotten away from it a bit. Porcello has a bunch of pitches, none of them all that great. He tries to mix that four seamer in which kind of works for him, but when he throws it too much it gets exposed and punished. Eduardo though has pretty much always been able rely on that fastball/slider/changeup trio, which is a pretty complete arsenal on it's own, and he seems to trust all three pitches. The health is iffy to me still, a step forward in command isn't something you can count on, but the pitches are there, and that's huge. Survivorship bias is an outstanding point and one I should have picked up on/mentioned. I’m sure there’s also some observation bias/cherry picking because guys who DO improve their command (especially with that quality of stuff) become better (excellent) pitchers and thus more memorable. Re: health (which I think may have had some effect on his mechanics), the patellar tendon surgery he underwent is a very minor orthopedic procedure with an extremely high success rate. Idk if the leg issue he had with Baltimore that led to his availability was related (might’ve been the other leg?, although that could’ve contributed to repetitive stress that resulted in rupture), but I do have a high expectation that the specific issue he’s had with his plant knee should be resolved. I also think that might bode well for more consistency with his mechanics and possibly overall command improvement as he has less concern and more stability around the knee. We’ll see. Regardless, his K rate is way up vs his rookie year and the walk rate is back down there. I think he’s got another level or even two.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 27, 2018 23:22:27 GMT -5
It's not poor, it's just not elite. I think that's what drives people nuts here. I think that's a good point and part of what gets me frustrated watching him at times. To expand on that just a little, he doesn't have elite control but it feels like he pitches like he expects to have that elite control. That's not the exact issue I had mentioned (doesn't want to pitch to contact) but it's in the same ballpark and would have the same result of high pitch counts. Also, fenwaythehardway made a great point that Rodriguez is a very good pitcher right now. Pitching to more contact (as I suggested) might screw up his game completely. We don't really know. It does feel like he's capable of being a much better pitcher which is frustrating at times, but maybe we'll just have to be content with him being a very good #3 guy. I think there’s also a distinction between “pitching to contact,” and “pitching unafraid of contact.” Sale, for example, changed his style for a couple years and genuinely sought “weak” contact as a means to efficiency. But he’s better pitching unafraid of contact: looking to paint (the command thing) but also to fool hitters and catch them off-balance. My gut sense is that Rodriguez has the swing-and-miss stuff (excellent but not elite SwStr at over 11%) to be pitching “unafraid,” rather than necessarily seeking pitches to induce weak outs (see his IFFB rate; this was something Lester (later in his tenure) was supremely good at with his cutter and what made him a successful LHSP in Denway despite Flyball tendencies). My observation on Rodriguez has already been made by another: going 3-4 more pitches deep on 0-2 or 1-2 counts. My sense (it’s only a *sense*) is that he’s *trying* to whiff guys by fooling them or getting them to chase when his stuff is good enough that he needn’t be so inclined to overthink it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 28, 2018 1:14:00 GMT -5
It's not poor, it's just not elite. I think that's what drives people nuts here. I think that's a good point and part of what gets me frustrated watching him at times. To expand on that just a little, he doesn't have elite control but it feels like he pitches like he expects to have that elite control. That's not the exact issue I had mentioned (doesn't want to pitch to contact) but it's in the same ballpark and would have the same result of high pitch counts. Also, fenwaythehardway made a great point that Rodriguez is a very good pitcher right now. Pitching to more contact (as I suggested) might screw up his game completely. We don't really know. It does feel like he's capable of being a much better pitcher which is frustrating at times, but maybe we'll just have to be content with him being a very good #3 guy. I'm certainly content with what Eduardo is right now and I hope he changes very little in his game and his stuff stays the same for at least the next 3-4 years. I've been saying for over a year that the problem with Eduardo is durability, not consistency. When healthy, he is very consistent and very good. It's the health issues that makes him bad.
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 28, 2018 15:53:37 GMT -5
His changeup combined with his elevated 95 MPH fastball is a lethal combo
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Post by patford on Jul 21, 2018 11:12:11 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 3, 2018 6:04:38 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 3, 2018 7:11:26 GMT -5
When everyone's healthy, my preferred rotation:
Sale Porcello Price Eovaldi Rodriguez
Pomeranz and Wright to bullpen.
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Post by h11233 on Aug 3, 2018 9:49:25 GMT -5
When everyone's healthy, my preferred rotation: Sale Porcello Price Eovaldi Rodriguez Pomeranz and Wright to bullpen. That's potentially lethal. It'll be fun to watch them duke it out for a spot in the playoff rotation. Obviously health is key.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 3, 2018 19:26:01 GMT -5
Heard that Eduardo could be sent on a rehab assignment soon. Maybe like a week or so. That would be awesome.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2018 8:41:41 GMT -5
Heard that Eduardo could be sent on a rehab assignment soon. Maybe like a week or so. That would be awesome. Actually any of the expected five could be.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2018 23:10:09 GMT -5
Trying to figure out what the E-Rod plan is, after his 4 great innings for Portland tonight. It seems very likely that he'll return on 9/1, after starting for Pawtucket in Buffalo on Sunday the 26th.
The key is that Velazquez has to make one more start, on Friday, no matter when you bring E-Rod back. And then he can be skipped because Monday the 27th is an off day. It looks like this:
8/24: Velazquez (4) 8/25: Porcello (4) 8/26: Eovaldi (4) 8/27: off
8/28: Johnson (5) 8/29: Price (5) 8/30: Porcello (4) 8/31: Eovaldi (4) 9/1: Rodriguez (5)
You could bring back E-Rod on the 26th to split up the RHP, but you're not replacing a Velazquez start with an E-Rod start that way; you're just giving Eovaldi, Johnson, and Price 6 days rest each, and then Porcello 5. It doesn't gain you much of anything, but it would mean optioning Velazquez needlessly.
E-Rod would then be lined up to start game 1 of the Astros' series on 9/7 (they're off the day before), and you can bet that they hope to have Sale take Johnson's turn the next day. Whether he comes back on 9/2 is a different question. That would be versus the White Sox in Chicago.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 6, 2019 1:52:58 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 6, 2019 2:07:02 GMT -5
I'm not sure if there's enough of a difference of MPH between Rodriguez's slider and cutter to transform Rodriguez the same way Corbin just did. Rodriguez's cutter looked really good this past year too, but I'm not sure if that's the pitch that's going to make him a number one type. Rodriguez might be better off trying to find a slurve (slower slider) or a curveball like Corbin just did in order to make that transformation. Eduardo needs to improve command to become that guy too. He has a great arm but he leaves too many pitches down the middle. He also needs to stay healthy for a full season for once.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 6, 2019 3:22:26 GMT -5
I wonder if the pitchers and their coaches read fangraphs, or do they already have this as proprietary information. Probably the latter. But as someone said earlier, ERod has been evolving nicely at his own pace. Looking forward to him taking his place in this awesome rotation.
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