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Post by tonyc on Sept 3, 2016 14:22:27 GMT -5
I know, way premature. However given the new call ups it's interesting to ruminate on- and that's what we do here. Hitters-13 Leon, Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Moncada, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Papi Backups- C.Vasquez, Shaw, Holt, Young Rationale- Hill while offering a Rh bat to spell Moncada has been crap and there's others, lefties who can do so-Shaw and Holt, and Young is a righthand PH. Also, it was either Hill or a key pitcher such as Barnes who would have more value given the bullpen issues
Pitchers-12 Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright pen- Kimbrell, Koji, Ziegler, Abad, Kelly, Bucholtz, Ross, Barnes
Rationale- Four starters, and this will be dependant partially on who shows better down the stretch in Wright vs. E.Rodriguez. For the season Wright was more reliable, and can eat innings better. Bucholtz would have to be there in case a starter has an issue, and can also flip to the bullpen and eat innings in long relief and has playoff experience. This presupposes Koji is effective and Tazawa is not down the stretch. Also that Kelly is Hembree isn't and Abad outshines Robby Scott as a loogy.
Thoughts?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2016 15:01:50 GMT -5
Playoff rosters almost always have 14 players and 11 pitchers. You have a four-man rotation rather than 5, and the extra off days also mean your best relievers can pitch more. An extra position player is almost always more valuable than an 8th bullpen arm.
E.g., Hill is going to be more valuable than Abad.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 3, 2016 15:02:11 GMT -5
A little early, but some thoughts:
- If Benintendi is healthy and is able to get in plenty of games the second half of September while looking solid, he's unquestionably your starter in the playoffs vs RHP's. Young's a lock to start vs the LHPs. If Benintendi can't go, and this isn't on the roster, you're faced with Young or Holt. But Holt is a lock to be on the roster.
- I don't like the idea of Shaw or Moncada starting for us vs. any LHP's. When we figure out who we're playing, we'll know if we're facing any LHP SP's, and if we are, I unquestionably want Hill in that spot. Now from a bench perspective, Moncada offers you a speedy pinch-runner option, while Shaw is a decent power option to deploy vs a RHP. Hill simply offers you a less-than-great PH option vs. LHP, but you could also use Young in that spot.
- We'll see how much Vazquez players when he's called up in a few days. I'm tempted to go with Hanigan as the backup to Leon right now -- he's still fine defensively, has worked with the pitchers substantially more than Vazquez this season, and the offensive difference is pretty marginal (despite Vazquez hitter well lately in Pawtucket). I don't have a strong opinion, though.
- If they're healthy, Kimbrel/Koji/Ziegler/Ross are your four locks in the bullpen. Buchholz to me is useless as a reliever in the playoffs, so I'm not giving him a spot. Abad as strictly a LOOGY would be nice in theory -- if he only, and I mean only, faces lefties, I'll take him over any situation JF may be Buchholz into the game in. I'm excited to see what Kelly shows this month. Barnes will get a spot, but I'd be just as happy with Hembree in that spot. Neither have been effective at retiring LHH's, but Hembree has been awful at it. But he's been a lot better than Barnes vs. RHH's.
Super early playoff roster:
Catchers (2): Leon Hanigan
Infield (8): Hanley Pedroia Moncada Bogaerts Ortiz Hill Holt Shaw
OF (4): Benintendi Bradley Betts Young
Rotation (4): Price Porcello Pomeranz Wright
Bullpen (7): Kimbrel Ziegler Uehara Ross Kelly Abad Hembree
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Post by tonyc on Sept 3, 2016 16:49:33 GMT -5
I pretty much agree Matt with just a caveat or two. Granted, Buccholtz may not be as effective as say Hembree (unless he reverts to effective self) but with just four starters and Kelly no longer stretched out, what if a starter has an issue? Also there's nobody to eat up innings in long relief, other than maybe Kelly- you'll recall how valuable in 2004 it was that Wakefield soaked up innings against the Yankees in a blowout and saved the staff. Lastly, Eric, I agree, however given Farell's faus pas with the pen it may be valuable to give him enough choices so that he can relegate Abad and Ziegler to matchup duty- where they're quite effective, unlike what he's done lately- maybe more so than Hill (would Hill vs. lefties be that much better than Holt at third?)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2016 17:45:20 GMT -5
A little early, but some thoughts: - If Benintendi is healthy and is able to get in plenty of games the second half of September while looking solid, he's unquestionably your starter in the playoffs vs RHP's. Young's a lock to start vs the LHPs. If Benintendi can't go, and this isn't on the roster, you're faced with Young or Holt. But Holt is a lock to be on the roster. - I don't like the idea of Shaw or Moncada starting for us vs. any LHP's. When we figure out who we're playing, we'll know if we're facing any LHP SP's, and if we are, I unquestionably want Hill in that spot. Now from a bench perspective, Moncada offers you a speedy pinch-runner option, while Shaw is a decent power option to deploy vs a RHP. Hill simply offers you a less-than-great PH option vs. LHP, but you could also use Young in that spot. - We'll see how much Vazquez players when he's called up in a few days. I'm tempted to go with Hanigan as the backup to Leon right now -- he's still fine defensively, has worked with the pitchers substantially more than Vazquez this season, and the offensive difference is pretty marginal (despite Vazquez hitter well lately in Pawtucket). I don't have a strong opinion, though. - If they're healthy, Kimbrel/Koji/Ziegler/Ross are your four locks in the bullpen. Buchholz to me is useless as a reliever in the playoffs, so I'm not giving him a spot. Abad as strictly a LOOGY would be nice in theory -- if he only, and I mean only, faces lefties, I'll take him over any situation JF may be Buchholz into the game in. I'm excited to see what Kelly shows this month. Barnes will get a spot, but I'd be just as happy with Hembree in that spot. Neither have been effective at retiring LHH's, but Hembree has been awful at it. But he's been a lot better than Barnes vs. RHH's. Super early playoff roster: Catchers (2): Leon Hanigan Infield (8): Hanley Pedroia Moncada Bogaerts Ortiz Hill Holt Shaw OF (4): Benintendi Bradley Betts Young Rotation (4): Price Porcello Pomeranz Wright Bullpen (7): Kimbrel Ziegler Uehara Ross Kelly Abad Hembree Well, there are three things wrong there. 1) Christian Vazquz's WAR / 120 (including framing), vs. Ryan Hanigan's: 6.2, ---, 0.6 3.4, 1.7, -5.1 No planet on which Hanigan is the backup catcher. 2) Whichever starter is not in the rotation will be on the roster. Whether it's Wright, Rodriguez, or Pomeranz, that guy will actually be one of the best pitchers in the bullpen (and Pomeranz of course has experience there). He provides exquisite insurance against an early-game starter injury or one that requires a pitcher to miss just one start. And he's a devastating weapon to bring into an extra-inning game when both managers have already exhausted their pens trying to get a win in regulation. And finally, in a 7-game series he can go three or four innings in a game 4 if you used everyone in a game 3, giving you a rested pen for game 5 rather than a tired one. Interlude) The bullpen locks barring injury are Kimbrel, Ziegler, and Ross. After that, there are two or three spots for RHR based on an end-of-year quality assessment, and an optional spot for a specialist. Right now, a good guess for the quality RHR depth chart at season's end might be Uehara, Kelly, Barnes, Tazawa (always a chance for resurrection, which is why he's very much still in the mix as a longshot. Folks have forgotten how completely unhittable he was through late May). But it's just a guess, and I think that this is one thing that nobody knows right now, where the only reasonable opinion is "let's see another month of data." There was a long stretch of time, for instance, where Barnes was better than a healthy Uehara. Depending on the opposing lineup, you might want to take only two of those RHR and have Abad on the roster. It depends on whether the opposing lineup features a string of LHB, or a stud LHH with a big platoon split (a la Ryan Howard in his prime) that you might need to retire in the 6th or 7th. Nobody knows this now, of course. And depending on how you plan to use the odd-man-out SP, you might want Buchholz on the roster. That scenario is pretty much one where the 7th and 8th innings remains a problem and the plan is to have Pomeranz, E-Rod, or Wright help shore them up, so you won't have a 5th starter available as a long man. You need a guy in the pen who can go 4+ innings. And in that scenario, you don't have three of the RHR staking strong claims, so Buchholz over the 3rd best would be a comfortable choice anyway. 3) You will notice the absence of Hembree from the above. He's been pretty uniformly awful in high leverage (-0.95 wins of Clutch); he's sort of the anti-Ross. No way he sniffs the post-season roster unless dramatic unexpected things happen. Right now he's 14th on the depth chart for the 11 spots.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 3, 2016 19:08:32 GMT -5
A little early, but some thoughts: - If Benintendi is healthy and is able to get in plenty of games the second half of September while looking solid, he's unquestionably your starter in the playoffs vs RHP's. Young's a lock to start vs the LHPs. If Benintendi can't go, and this isn't on the roster, you're faced with Young or Holt. But Holt is a lock to be on the roster. - I don't like the idea of Shaw or Moncada starting for us vs. any LHP's. When we figure out who we're playing, we'll know if we're facing any LHP SP's, and if we are, I unquestionably want Hill in that spot. Now from a bench perspective, Moncada offers you a speedy pinch-runner option, while Shaw is a decent power option to deploy vs a RHP. Hill simply offers you a less-than-great PH option vs. LHP, but you could also use Young in that spot. - We'll see how much Vazquez players when he's called up in a few days. I'm tempted to go with Hanigan as the backup to Leon right now -- he's still fine defensively, has worked with the pitchers substantially more than Vazquez this season, and the offensive difference is pretty marginal (despite Vazquez hitter well lately in Pawtucket). I don't have a strong opinion, though. - If they're healthy, Kimbrel/Koji/Ziegler/Ross are your four locks in the bullpen. Buchholz to me is useless as a reliever in the playoffs, so I'm not giving him a spot. Abad as strictly a LOOGY would be nice in theory -- if he only, and I mean only, faces lefties, I'll take him over any situation JF may be Buchholz into the game in. I'm excited to see what Kelly shows this month. Barnes will get a spot, but I'd be just as happy with Hembree in that spot. Neither have been effective at retiring LHH's, but Hembree has been awful at it. But he's been a lot better than Barnes vs. RHH's. Super early playoff roster: Catchers (2): Leon Hanigan Infield (8): Hanley Pedroia Moncada Bogaerts Ortiz Hill Holt Shaw OF (4): Benintendi Bradley Betts Young Rotation (4): Price Porcello Pomeranz Wright Bullpen (7): Kimbrel Ziegler Uehara Ross Kelly Abad Hembree Well, there are three things wrong there. 1) Christian Vazquz's WAR / 120 (including framing), vs. Ryan Hanigan's: 6.2, ---, 0.6 3.4, 1.7, -5.1 No planet on which Hanigan is the backup catcher. 2) Whichever starter is not in the rotation will be on the roster. Whether it's Wright, Rodriguez, or Pomeranz, that guy will actually be one of the best pitchers in the bullpen (and Pomeranz of course has experience there). He provides exquisite insurance against an early-game starter injury or one that requires a pitcher to miss just one start. And he's a devastating weapon to bring into an extra-inning game when both managers have already exhausted their pens trying to get a win in regulation. And finally, in a 7-game series he can go three or four innings in a game 4 if you used everyone in a game 3, giving you a rested pen for game 5 rather than a tired one. Interlude) The bullpen locks barring injury are Kimbrel, Ziegler, and Ross. After that, there are two or three spots for RHR based on an end-of-year quality assessment, and an optional spot for a specialist. Right now, a good guess for the quality RHR depth chart at season's end might be Uehara, Kelly, Barnes, Tazawa (always a chance for resurrection, which is why he's very much still in the mix as a longshot. Folks have forgotten how completely unhittable he was through late May). But it's just a guess, and I think that this is one thing that nobody knows right now, where the only reasonable opinion is "let's see another month of data." There was a long stretch of time, for instance, where Barnes was better than a healthy Uehara. Depending on the opposing lineup, you might want to take only two of those RHR and have Abad on the roster. It depends on whether the opposing lineup features a string of LHB, or a stud LHH with a big platoon split (a la Ryan Howard in his prime) that you might need to retire in the 6th or 7th. Nobody knows this now, of course. And depending on how you plan to use the odd-man-out SP, you might want Buchholz on the roster. That scenario is pretty much one where the 7th and 8th innings remains a problem and the plan is to have Pomeranz, E-Rod, or Wright help shore them up, so you won't have a 5th starter available as a long man. You need a guy in the pen who can go 4+ innings. And in that scenario, you don't have three of the RHR staking strong claims, so Buchholz over the 3rd best would be a comfortable choice anyway. 3) You will notice the absence of Hembree from the above. He's been pretty uniformly awful in high leverage (-0.95 wins of Clutch); he's sort of the anti-Ross. No way he sniffs the post-season roster unless dramatic unexpected things happen. Right now he's 14th on the depth chart for the 11 spots. cv as backup catcher. 4 starters and 3 relief are locks. The last 4 pitchers will be decided by results over the last 4 weeks. Very wide open.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2016 19:36:08 GMT -5
If Wright doesn't return, that finalizes the rotation, and Buchholz is likely to earn a spot as the 7th man in the pen. It would be what I outlined above, with Uehara, Kelly, Barnes, and Tazawa competing for 2 or 3 spots, depending on whether Abad would be more useful than whoever is 3rd best.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 3, 2016 21:29:53 GMT -5
You don't think Clay might be the fourth starter if he hs a great month?
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Post by rookie13 on Sept 3, 2016 23:03:26 GMT -5
You don't think Clay might be the fourth starter if he hs a great month? I can't see Clay being the 4th starter unless Wright doesn't come back, and Rodgriguez is either hurt/terrible this month
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Post by patford on Sept 3, 2016 23:33:18 GMT -5
At any moment Buchholz is the best pitcher in baseball. And the pattern is for longish periods of time. Around half a season.
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Post by patford on Sept 3, 2016 23:36:44 GMT -5
I've never gotten past, "This is great, but I don't believe in this," with Wright. I believe in Buchholz. Why? Just because I have seen him do it.
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 4, 2016 0:05:16 GMT -5
I would think with Buchholz having bullpen experience already this year, and Erod's success since the all star game, that as long as Erod is healthy he'll be the 4th starter and Clay will work out of the pen. Of course, that assumes Wright is definitely out and that Pomeranz pitches well the rest of the way. Now here's hoping we can avoid that wild card game.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 4, 2016 7:50:36 GMT -5
It's hard to be precise with the roster at this point, but at the moment I guess it looks like this:
Starters: Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, E-Rod Bullpen: Kimbrel, Uehara, Ziegler, Ross, Abad, Barnes, Buchholz (unless Kelly or Hembree do something remarkable or somebody gets hurt or Uehara isn't the same, I'd guess that would be the pen - doesn't look too good).
Lineup: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Betts, Ramirez, Bradley, Leon, Benintendi, Moncada
Bench: Vazquez (over Hanigan and Holoday), Shaw, Hill, Holt, and Young
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Post by bosox81 on Sept 4, 2016 9:02:20 GMT -5
I still think it will be important to limit Pomeranz' innings, especially because they have him the next two seasons as well. I'd put him in the pen in the playoffs, if the four rotation spots can be filled by others.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 4, 2016 10:47:46 GMT -5
I still think it will be important to limit Pomeranz' innings, especially because they have him the next two seasons as well. I'd put him in the pen in the playoffs, if the four rotation spots can be filled by others. Farrell was on WEEI recently and said Pomeranz won't go to the bullpen.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 4, 2016 11:59:48 GMT -5
I still think it will be important to limit Pomeranz' innings, especially because they have him the next two seasons as well. I'd put him in the pen in the playoffs, if the four rotation spots can be filled by others. Farrell was on WEEI recently and said Pomeranz won't go to the bullpen. Good. He's too good of a starter to put him in the pen. I think the "innings thing" is important but a bit overblown We're trying to win this year with all the moves we've made. We traded a lot for Kimbrel and traded our best pitching prospect who was getting unreal praise for Pomeranz. If we weren't going to use Pomeranz "full tilt" then what was the point of trading Espinoza for this guy? We've gotten this far and the playoff picture is still up in the air, so we're still in a battle of potentially not making the playoffs. All games are huge. In this case of "Pomeranz and innings", I don't believe anyone really knows (other than being "worried") how he'll be affected next year unlike if he had an existing injury. So use him as your starter until/if the picture becomes more clear. Who is to say next year we won't have 6 starters and can give him some additional rest then?
Atta boy Farrell. Full steam ahead!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2016 13:49:44 GMT -5
The Indians are the very likely ALDS opponent if we win the division. Their lineup poses nasty problems for a team with big platoon splits in their bullpen.
They have three switch hitters with roughly neutral platoon splits in Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez. They platoon Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis in CF and Lonnie Chisenhall and Abraham Almonte in RF (even though Almonte is a switch-hitter who's somewhat better from the left side). The three RH hitters hit 4, 7, and 9 -- Napoli, Brandon Guyer, and C Roberto Perez. It's a lineup that renders Ziegler a lot less useful, except against the bottom of the order, perhaps.
The sole LHB, Kipnis, hits 2nd and has enough of a platoon split that you might use Abad against him.
An effective Koji, with his career reverse split, would be hugely important for an Indians series. You also should be rooting for Barnes (who must have fared well vs. LHP in his dominant stretch) or Tazawa (who has a reverse split over the last three years) to return to form. We have little idea what Kelly's platoon split will be like now that he's almost strictly a 4-seam / curve guy, but it's promising, as he has a mild career split despite his delivery. And Cody Allen has the same pitch mix and a reverse split (although he comes much more over the top).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2016 14:06:30 GMT -5
I still think it will be important to limit Pomeranz' innings, especially because they have him the next two seasons as well. I'd put him in the pen in the playoffs, if the four rotation spots can be filled by others. Farrell was on WEEI recently and said Pomeranz won't go to the bullpen. There's no way that was a comment about the post-season, though, as opposed to one about the possible need to limit his regular season innings back when Buchholz was making it look like we had six good starters. If he pitches in the pen in the post-season, it will be because we have a 4th starter option just as good, while he would be more useful in the pen than the other 4th starter candidate. I would say that Price and Porcello are the only sure things for a playoff rotation spot. You can imagine scenarios where any of the other guys are in the pen (or in Wright's case, the DL).
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 5, 2016 14:40:27 GMT -5
True but I dont think the chances both Clay and ERod outpitch Pomeranz are very high. Especially Buchholz.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 19, 2016 10:03:19 GMT -5
Moving and updating this from the game series thread:
BOS is one/two games behind CLE/TEX with 13 to go. BOS holds the tiebreaker over CLE in the event of a tie. BOS and TEX tied their season series but TEX holds the next tiebreaker over BOS (intradivision record).
Projected rotation vs. CLE (assumes Wright/Carrasco/Salazar are unavailable)
G1 - Price (L) vs. Kluber (R) G2 - Porcello (R) vs. Bauer (R) G3 - Rodriguez (L) vs. Tomlin (R) G4 - Buchholz (R) vs. Kluber (R) (note: I think it is likely that CLE goes with three starters only, whereas BOS is more likely to go with four and not have anyone pitch on short rest)
BOS projected bullpen - Kimbrel, Uehara, Ziegler, Kelly, Ross, Pomeranz, one of Barnes/Tazawa/Abad/Scott
CLE projected bullpen - Allen, Miller, Shaw, Otero, McAllister, Manship, Crockett, Salazar (if healthy)
BOS projected lineup - Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Betts, Ramirez, Shaw, JBJ, Leon, Young/Benintendi (even with an all-RHP rotation, I would be inclined to split Young and Benintendi) BOS projected bench - Hill, Benintendi/Young, Hanigan, Holt, Hernandez
CLE projected lineup - Davis, Kipnis, Lindor, Napoli, Santana, Ramirez, Guyer, Crisp, Perez CLE projected bench - Gomes, Naquin, Chisenhall, Martinez +1
Personally, I think CLE is a favorable matchup for BOS in the ALDS, assuming BOS wins the AL East.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 19, 2016 14:05:42 GMT -5
That looks right to me. Tazawa has looked a lot better lately, so my first thought is him as the last reliever. If the starter blows out, you could go with Pomeranz as your long man. I love Robby Scott all of a sudden, but it doesn't look like there's room for him.
It's too bad Moncada's not ready for the designated pinch runner role; Hernandez isn't really a weapon as a runner.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 19, 2016 14:18:47 GMT -5
Having a dedicated pinch runner isn't as big of a deal with this pretty excellent overall baserunning team. There will be less opportunities for it. In fact, I don't remember complaining about any possible missed pinch run opportunities in the last week and that's even with the expanded rosters. There has been one pinch runner in the last week and we're pretty much in playoff mode. Hernandez ran for Papi in the 9th on the 15th and scored on Hanley's walk off HR.
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Post by bosox81 on Sept 19, 2016 14:20:07 GMT -5
Well, I guess Pomeranz has taken care of his innings issue all by himself these past two starts. Now people are penciling him in the bullpen in the playoffs.
It would be nice if the Sox had a big enough lead, so that Pomeranz can get a few bullpen innings down the stretch. I'm not comfortable just putting him in the bullpen in the playoffs when he hasn't been in that role for a year.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 19, 2016 19:50:26 GMT -5
Having a dedicated pinch runner isn't as big of a deal with this pretty excellent overall baserunning team. There will be less opportunities for it. In fact, I don't remember complaining about any possible missed pinch run opportunities in the last week and that's even with the expanded rosters. There has been one pinch runner in the last week and we're pretty much in playoff mode. Hernandez ran for Papi in the 9th on the 15th and scored on Hanley's walk off HR. That's a good point ... Hernandez would only be a clearly better baserunner than Ortiz, Ramirez and Leon, probably Pedroia but not as obviously so. Without the "can steal a base when the whole stadium knows he's going" kind of runner, it's probably not as big a deal
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 21, 2016 12:19:50 GMT -5
Who will be the back up Catcher? Hannigan, Vazquez or Holaday?
Who should be the back up Catcher? Hannigan, Vazquez or Holaday
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