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Post by jmei on Sept 22, 2016 16:23:53 GMT -5
Hanigan has all of 110 PAs for the Red Sox this year, and Holaday has all of 31 PAs for the Red Sox this year-- both tiny samples. I don't know that you can say that Vazquez is clearly a better hitter than Hanigan or Holaday. Here is what the projections say: Steamer:Hanigan: 65 wRC+ Holaday: 65 Vazquez: 75 ZiPS:Hanigan: 61 Holaday: 69 Vazquez: 58 So you also don't believe that Vazquez is the best defensive catcher of the 3? It is kind of amusing that Steamer has Leon lower than Vazquez. Vazquez has a better arm than Hanigan and is a (slightly) better framer, but Hanigan is a better game-caller and has more experience with their current crop of starting pitchers (the only guy Vazquez has really caught is Buchholz). It's close enough that I don't think it's crazy to prefer Hanigan for gritty vet-type reasons.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2016 16:25:55 GMT -5
Even stipulating that CVaz is better defensively and runs better than Hanigan and Holaday, that shouldn't make a difference for this year's playoffs. Unless he gets hurt, Leon is not coming out of any games for defensive purposes or for a pinch runner. Of course, if the Red Sox make it to the World Series, Leon may be double switched out during the 2-3 games in the NL park. I would not concede that Vazquez is a better hitter than Hanigan right now. I do think that player dynamics are important this time of year and, as a result, the clubhouse is likely more comfortable with the veteran Hanigan than the young Vazquez (without knowledge of any specifics). PECOTA has Vazquez at .240 TAv and Hanigan at .239 the rest of the way. Steamer has it wRC+ 75 to 65, ZiPS 58 to 61, the Depth Charts combination of the latter two being 67 to 63. None of the projection systems are factoring in that CV hit .310 / .364 / .423 in his last 19 games at Pawtucket, versus his overall .270 / .345 / .368, which given his rust from missing 2015, may add to his projection a bit. It's very likely that CV is a somewhat better hitter. There's no question he's the better defender. If there is clubhouse stuff we don't know about, that's another thing. But it's worth noting that Vazquez finally got into a game on the 18th, when he rather than Hanigan took over for Holaday after Ortiz pinch-hit for him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2016 16:55:46 GMT -5
Catchers(2): Leon Hanigan will be / Vazquez should be Infield (6): Pedroia Bogaerts Ortiz Ramirez Holt Shaw OF (4): Benintendi Bradley Betts Young Rotation (4): Porcello Price Buchholz Rodriguez Bullpen (9): Kimbrel Uehara Ziegler Kelly Barnes Ross Scott Hembree Tazawa This is probably the closest thing to the playoff roster but Holaday will probably be the backup catcher. That and Aaron Hill is in the playoff roster and one of Tazawa, Hembree, Barnes, or Kelly is out. Also Hembree shouldn't be discounted. I think the Sox are higher on him than even Joe Kelly. Remember this was the guy the Sox called up in August when they needed relief help, instead of Kelly. I really like Hembree and I think he deserves to be on the playoff roster. Hembree has been mediocre at best vs. RHP in other than low leverage. This is wOBA allowed, first 2016 and then career (with a / separating). Vs. RHB:
Low leverage: .187 / .256 (163 PA career) Medium and high leverage: .362 / .332 (84 PA) The question is, do you trust this to be random? Leverage splits for relievers can absolutely be real (poster child: Fernando Abad). If this is for real, he's not a guy you can use in the Ziegler role if Ziegler is unavailable. His splits vs. LHB show a reverse pattern, but the sample sizes in medium and high leverage are too small to be significant (and are probably subject to selectiion bias, where he's only been allowed to face weak LHB), so you'd go with his .387 / .365 overall. Despite his platoon split, he's allowed .280 / .309 in low leverage. That's really the only role you'd want to trust him in ... and he's not one of your 12 best pitchers even before you consider these splits. If you need 2 or 3 innings in a blowout, that can be handled by a couple of better pitchers; if you need more, by Pomeranz (which is one of his roles).
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Post by jmei on Sept 22, 2016 17:05:38 GMT -5
None of the projection systems are factoring in that CV hit .310 / .364 / .423 in his last 19 games at Pawtucket, versus his overall .270 / .345 / .368, which given his rust from missing 2015, may add to his projection a bit. Oh, they all factor it in. What they don't do is put too much weight on a 19 game streak of good-but-not-great results at AAA, which, frankly, is the right approach.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2016 17:12:22 GMT -5
As noted, backup catcher is still up in the air / subject to debate
Whether they carry Hernandez as a pinch-runner or a 12th pitcher is up to debate, at least until the WS, where an extra bench player is likelier to be more valuable in the NL park games.
As I've noted previously, whichever starter is not in the rotation is in the pen. Buchholz has a 20% chance of having no command on a given day and E-Rod is about 10% to 15% (just pulling those numbers out the air, but we've all seen it). Being able to bring in Pomeranz very early could be a game-saver; a series saver if that happens to E-Rod in a game 3. And of course Pomeranz gives you a second LHR.
Kimbrel, Uehara, Kelly, Ross, Ziegler, and Pomeranz are bullpen givens, so there are 1 or 2 spots for Barnes, Tazawa, and Scott. I have skepticism that Scott will have a long career as a LOOGY, but it's hilariously obvious that LHB who have never faced him are helpless (in fact, RHB are confused as well), and that unfamiliarity effect will last for at least 3 PA and maybe 4 (based on Okajima's splits, which were amazingly large -- and you may recall Barry Bonds in his prime taking a fat 3rd pitch strike the only time he faced him). He could be a nice weapon against a team with a scary LHB or two.
So I think that Barnes and Tazawa are competing for the last RHR role, and the 25th man is either the loser of that, Hernandez, or Scott -- and if the other team has a lot of dangerous LHB, you'd probably go with Scott.
If Scott is not needed, we can debate whether Hernandez as a pinch-runner, or a fourth RH 6th and 7th inning guy (after Kelly, Ziegler, and the Barnes / Tazawa winner) will be more likely to be valuable. In a WS, you'd want the extra position player. Before then, it's unlikely to matter, just like backup catcher.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 23, 2016 7:52:16 GMT -5
As noted, backup catcher is still up in the air / subject to debate Whether they carry Hernandez as a pinch-runner or a 12th pitcher is up to debate, at least until the WS, where an extra bench player is likelier to be more valuable in the NL park games. As I've noted previously, whichever starter is not in the rotation is in the pen. Buchholz has a 20% chance of having no command on a given day and E-Rod is about 10% to 15% (just pulling those numbers out the air, but we've all seen it). Being able to bring in Pomeranz very early could be a game-saver; a series saver if that happens to E-Rod in a game 3. And of course Pomeranz gives you a second LHR. Kimbrel, Uehara, Kelly, Ross, Ziegler, and Pomeranz are bullpen givens, so there are 1 or 2 spots for Barnes, Tazawa, and Scott. I have skepticism that Scott will have a long career as a LOOGY, but it's hilariously obvious that LHB who have never faced him are helpless (in fact, RHB are confused as well), and that unfamiliarity effect will last for at least 3 PA and maybe 4 (based on Okajima's splits, which were amazingly large -- and you may recall Barry Bonds in his prime taking a fat 3rd pitch strike the only time he faced him). He could be a nice weapon against a team with a scary LHB or two. So I think that Barnes and Tazawa are competing for the last RHR role, and the 25th man is either the loser of that, Hernandez, or Scott -- and if the other team has a lot of dangerous LHB, you'd probably go with Scott. If Scott is not needed, we can debate whether Hernandez as a pinch-runner, or a fourth RH 6th and 7th inning guy (after Kelly, Ziegler, and the Barnes / Tazawa winner) will be more likely to be valuable. In a WS, you'd want the extra position player. Before then, it's unlikely to matter, just like backup catcher. 2 catchers, one to be decided, 6 infielders, 4 outf, 4 sp, 6 bullpen. top 5 relief plus the 5th starter. Total of 22. In the mix for the last 3 spots are hill and Hernandez, and barnes, scott and taz. So one of the 2 infielders and 2 of the 3 pitchers. I think you are dead on. Very interesting choices. Last 3 Hernandez, scott and ?? Who do you pick?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 28, 2016 23:14:54 GMT -5
My choices -
P - Porcello, Price, ERod, Buccholz (starters) - 4 Kimbrel, Uehara, Ziegler, Ross, Kelly, Scott, Hembree, Barnes, Tazawa - 9
C - Leon, Vazquez - 2 I - Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Holt, Shaw - 5 O - Benintendi, Young, Bradley, Betts - 5 DH - Ortiz - 1
That makes 26, meaning someone's gotta go - Tazawa, Hembree or Barnes? And I don't have Pomeranz on my keep list. And I guess Hill needs to be there - but if so, who comes off? I also have Vazquez over Hanigan.
The main 19 are easy - taking the remaining 8 down to 6 not so easy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2016 23:24:02 GMT -5
I think it's looking clearer now.
Rotation: Porcello, Price, Rodriguez, Buchholz Bullpen: Kimbrel, Uehara, Ziegler, Ross, Barnes, Kelly, Scott Lineup: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Betts, Ramirez, Bradley, Holt, Benintendi, Leon Bench: Hanigan, Shaw, Hill, Young, Hernandez DL: Wright, Pomeranz, Smith, Swihart, Sandoval (I include this because if these guys were healthy it would really make this team downright scary)
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Post by soxjim on Sept 28, 2016 23:39:04 GMT -5
My choices: 14 postion and 11 pitchers
c-- (3) Leon, Holiday, CV 1b Hanley 2b Pedroia ss XB 3b-- (2) Holt/Hill Of (4) Young/Beni, Bradley, Betts DH Ortiz Utility - Shaw
Starters - Porcello, Price, ERod and Clay
Relief: Kimbrel Koji Kelly Zeigler Ross Scott Pomeranz
I believe our catchers can't hit thus there will be opportunities in which we need a critical at bat in which we can't trust the catchers to get a big hit. In that crucial stage Farrell needs to make a move. Because he is so stubborn he won't do it if he only has 2 catchers. Therefore get a 3rd so he can make a move if needed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2016 9:27:45 GMT -5
I believe our catchers can't hit thus there will be opportunities in which we need a critical at bat in which we can't trust the catchers to get a big hit. In that crucial stage Farrell needs to make a move. Because he is so stubborn he won't do it if he only has 2 catchers. Therefore get a 3rd so he can make a move if needed. Or, you can tell Farrell that the odds of having your backup catcher get injured so severely that he has to leave the game are tiny (most teams go through the entire season without any catcher leaving the game due to injury, and most teams pinch-hit for their catcher routinely despite having only one backup catcher), and that he should manage as if they are zero. Which they almost are. Furthermore, if you're playing the "JF's brain" card here, you also know that if Leon gets two hits in the ALDS opener, JF will not pinch hit for him after all. Anyway, there are now 21 roster spots set, which I shouldn't have to run down for anyone (since Abraham and Cafardo don't come here). 22: Vazquez, Hanigan, or Holaday 23: Pomeranz (if healthy) or Scott (if not) 24: Barnes or Tazawa as a high-leverage guy 25: Scott (if 23 = Pomeranz), Barnes (if 24 = Tazawa), Hembree, or Hernandez For 22, CV is clearly the correct choice, and he did get the last non-Leon, non-Pomeranz / Holaday start and was terrific. For 24, JF has certainly used Barnes > Tazawa as of late but I don't think the numbers (which I will run in a few days) back that up. 25 is complex. Let's do it four ways depending on 23 and 24. A) Pomeranz and Barnes: Since Pomeranz is a long man and Kelly and Barnes can both go 2 or even 3 innings, there's no need for Hembree, and Tazawa is redundant as a high-leverage RHR. There are certain lineups where Scott would be an easy choice, and against other teams, the Scott / Hernandez decision is tougher. B) Pomeranz and Tazawa: Same, except now you have a third option, who is probably Barnes but could be Hembree. Which is to say, you might have Barnes as a long-man / mop-up guy and Tazawa as a high-lev guy, but not the other way around. You don't need Barnes or Hembree because both Pomeranz and Kelly can give you multiple innings, but an extra mop-up guy might be more useful than a 3rd LHR or pinch-runner / extra position player. C) Scott and Barnes: You've lost your primary bullpen long man, so this is very similar to the previous combo, the difference being that Hembree would be even more useful, because it's Barnes rather than Pomeranz who is a multi-inning possibility.* D) Scott and Tazawa: Now you're down to one multi-inning reliever, so you pretty much want Barnes or Hembree as a long man rather than Hernandez. *Scott can do that, too, but it's a bad idea to use him in that role. You want to limit the other team's looks at him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2016 11:15:44 GMT -5
I'd say Barnes is pretty safe at this point. I can't see them taking Tazawa over him, or at all for that matter given that he hasn't even pitched since the 18th. So I'd say 22 set, plus backup catcher, second lefty, then spot 25 between Scott, Hembree, or Hernandez, and at that point, opponent and length of series could certainly factor in (if you've got RHH-heavy Toronto, Scott is much less useful, etc. etc.).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2016 15:44:02 GMT -5
I'd say Barnes is pretty safe at this point. I can't see them taking Tazawa over him, or at all for that matter given that he hasn't even pitched since the 18th. So I'd say 22 set, plus backup catcher, second lefty, then spot 25 between Scott, Hembree, or Hernandez, and at that point, opponent and length of series could certainly factor in (if you've got RHH-heavy Toronto, Scott is much less useful, etc. etc.). My consideration of Tazawa was because I was doing a should-be analysis as much as a will-be. JF is as being as slow to realize that Tazawa is his old self as he was slow to realize he was toast. It's true that if Pomeranz is not in the pen, and you think Tazawa may be a bit better as a high-lev option, you go with Barnes because of his multi-inning capacity. I thought of that as I was finishing up that analysis, too late to include it.
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Post by m1keyboots on Sept 29, 2016 16:12:13 GMT -5
I'd say Barnes is pretty safe at this point. I can't see them taking Tazawa over him, or at all for that matter given that he hasn't even pitched since the 18th. So I'd say 22 set, plus backup catcher, second lefty, then spot 25 between Scott, Hembree, or Hernandez, and at that point, opponent and length of series could certainly factor in (if you've got RHH-heavy Toronto, Scott is much less useful, etc. etc.). My consideration of Tazawa was because I was doing a should-be analysis as much as a will-be. JF is as being as slow to realize that Tazawa is his old self as he was slow to realize he was toast. It's true that if Pomeranz is not in the pen, and you think Tazawa may be a bit better as a high-lev option, you go with Barnes because of his multi-inning capacity. I thought of that as I was finishing up that analysis, too late to include it. I have to agree, the last time I saw Taz (I guess It was the 18th) he looked good, and was throwing nasty splitters. I'm a big fan of Barnes and how he's maxed out his stuff in the bullpen, I just feel like he doesn't have a true out pitch. Tazawa otoh, he of whom has one of the highest spin rates on the slider (crazy right?) And has his velocity up. Farrell probably favors whomever gave him the nicest birthday card last year
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Post by joshmoody23 on Sept 29, 2016 16:34:10 GMT -5
C - Leon & Holaday 1b- Hanley 2B - Pedroia SS - X 3B - Holt & Shaw UTIL - Aaron Hill OF - Benny, Young, Mookie, JBJ DH - Papi
SP - Pretty Ricky, Price, Buch, E-Rod RP - Pomeranz, Kelly, Barnes, Koji, Ziggy, Ross, and Kimbrel
Last spot to me is between Robby Scott and Heath Hembree depending on who we play. Pomeranz can be dominant as a lefty reliever. Only other chance to me is Marco Hernandez which I don't think will happen. Honestly though, besides being a veteran, Hernandez may have more value than Hill on the roster but that won't happen.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 29, 2016 21:13:37 GMT -5
I believe our catchers can't hit thus there will be opportunities in which we need a critical at bat in which we can't trust the catchers to get a big hit. In that crucial stage Farrell needs to make a move. Because he is so stubborn he won't do it if he only has 2 catchers. Therefore get a 3rd so he can make a move if needed. Or, you can tell Farrell that the odds of having your backup catcher get injured so severely that he has to leave the game are tiny (most teams go through the entire season without any catcher leaving the game due to injury, and most teams pinch-hit for their catcher routinely despite having only one backup catcher), and that he should manage as if they are zero. Which they almost are. Furthermore, if you're playing the "JF's brain" card here, you also know that if Leon gets two hits in the ALDS opener, JF will not pinch hit for him after all. Anyway, there are now 21 roster spots set, which I shouldn't have to run down for anyone (since Abraham and Cafardo don't come here). 22: Vazquez, Hanigan, or Holaday 23: Pomeranz (if healthy) or Scott (if not) 24: Barnes or Tazawa as a high-leverage guy 25: Scott (if 23 = Pomeranz), Barnes (if 24 = Tazawa), Hembree, or Hernandez For 22, CV is clearly the correct choice, and he did get the last non-Leon, non-Pomeranz / Holaday start and was terrific. For 24, JF has certainly used Barnes > Tazawa as of late but I don't think the numbers (which I will run in a few days) back that up. 25 is complex. Let's do it four ways depending on 23 and 24. A) Pomeranz and Barnes: Since Pomeranz is a long man and Kelly and Barnes can both go 2 or even 3 innings, there's no need for Hembree, and Tazawa is redundant as a high-leverage RHR. There are certain lineups where Scott would be an easy choice, and against other teams, the Scott / Hernandez decision is tougher. B) Pomeranz and Tazawa: Same, except now you have a third option, who is probably Barnes but could be Hembree. Which is to say, you might have Barnes as a long-man / mop-up guy and Tazawa as a high-lev guy, but not the other way around. You don't need Barnes or Hembree because both Pomeranz and Kelly can give you multiple innings, but an extra mop-up guy might be more useful than a 3rd LHR or pinch-runner / extra position player. C) Scott and Barnes: You've lost your primary bullpen long man, so this is very similar to the previous combo, the difference being that Hembree would be even more useful, because it's Barnes rather than Pomeranz who is a multi-inning possibility.* D) Scott and Tazawa: Now you're down to one multi-inning reliever, so you pretty much want Barnes or Hembree as a long man rather than Hernandez. *Scott can do that, too, but it's a bad idea to use him in that role. You want to limit the other team's looks at him. I think you're right that anyone could try to explain to Farrell what is the right move, but Farrell is going to do what he thinks is right unless ordered to do otherwise. If for example you had a manager that likes to play power 3 run home run and you give him a good but not great base stealer but no power more than likely he won't use him much (unless he is extremely good at other things) because it isn't how he wants to coach. Farrell imo is similar- so similar as to when you made prior excellent points on on another thread. You said Farrell would be better for a team in which he didn't have to make a lot of moves and/or sticks with the vets. In this case "today," Farrell won't use a pinch hitter for an "automatic-out catcher" unless the situation is extremely dire if he only has two just 2 catchers. It won't make a difference if you explain logic to him. He doesn't manage the way you and I feel he should. So if that is the case, you give him an option that fits his coaching style. And that option is to have 3 catchers because imo we are going to probably need to do it.
It's going to kill me -- well- I won't get too twisted just bug me a little-- seeing Farrell do the "anti-Tito" (in which Tito recognizes when to use a closer is not necessarily the 9th inning). There will probably be a game or two in which a pinch hitter could be used when we desperately need to score - a pivotal point in the game -- and because JF has only 2 catchers he won't make the move while Tito recognizes the pivotal point in the game and he'll use his best option to try to impact the moment. Secondly, too many "if scenarios" with Leon and 2 hits. What IF he doesn't and Farrell never uses his catchers when he should have for pinch hitters? What if game one he gets his 2 hits and we win 15-2 then we go down in the next 4 and Farrell could have pinch hit for him but didn't because he only had 2 catchers?
No thanks for Barnes, Taz or Hembree. Long men are Pomeranz and Kelly if our starting pitching doesn't do the job. I am not a fan of Barnes after his August swoon and in Sept his WHIP is bad. I don't trust him nor do I trust Hembree or Taz (pitching better in his last 6). More than likely sox will get Barnes or Taz - I'd be extremely surprised with Hembree. I wouldn't agree with it- but I understand - another arm. Who knows you get a long extra inning game or a blowout or maybe one of them actually can get it done. I'm skeptical but won't get twisted over it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2016 10:46:15 GMT -5
Not that anyone thought he'd be on the roster, but in case anyone missed it, Moncada has left the team to report to Fort Myers to prepare for the AFL.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 30, 2016 22:44:39 GMT -5
I personally think the Sox should shut Pomeranz down for the year.
There's not a huge need for long relievers most times in the playoffs with all the days off in between games.
Plus Hembree, Barnes, Kelly, and Ross Jr can all be used in multiple inning roles.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 2, 2016 17:50:55 GMT -5
My choices: 14 postion and 11 pitchers c-- (3) Leon, Holiday, CV 1b Hanley 2b Pedroia ss XB 3b-- (2) Holt/Hill Of (4) Young/Beni, Bradley, Betts DH Ortiz Utility - Shaw Starters - Porcello, Price, ERod and Clay Relief: Kimbrel Koji Kelly Zeigler Ross Scott Pomeranz I believe our catchers can't hit thus there will be opportunities in which we need a critical at bat in which we can't trust the catchers to get a big hit. In that crucial stage Farrell needs to make a move. Because he is so stubborn he won't do it if he only has 2 catchers. Therefore get a 3rd so he can make a move if needed. I'm amending my 25 man roster. The recent implosions of Kimbrel have me more concerned than I should be. Bag the 3 catchers and either get Barnes or Taz. I'm 50-50 on these 2. Thirteen position players and 12 pitchers. Kimbrel is too shaky to trust but we're forced to. It doesn't mean he won't blow games but either in case he does we have enough or heaven forbid we actually assess how he is doing in the moment and before his "crash-and-burn", you pull him.
Just hoping he can get hot.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 2, 2016 17:53:13 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 7m7 minutes ago Farrell on Pomeranz: 'That was outstanding. More velocity than anticipated...Could have been a little bit of a found gold situation.'
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 2, 2016 17:59:20 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 12m12 minutes ago Sounds like Pomeranz locked up a playoff roster spot with his outing today. Farrell: "That could be a found-gold situation."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 18:04:35 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 7m7 minutes ago Farrell on Pomeranz: 'That was outstanding. More velocity than anticipated...Could have been a little bit of a found gold situation.' Excellent. Vazquez ought to be the backup C and it looks like he will be. It's clear that Barnes is in, and given that he's a decent set-up guy who can go 2 innings, he'll be useful. The 25th spot is between Scott, Tazawa (according to me and other sane, observant people, even if JF doesn't seem to think so), Hembree (except he's a given if the only pitching stat you look at is ERA, and I'm looking at you, you lazy incompetent f***, Peter Abraham), and Hernandez. I've got the Indians' batting orders vs. RHP and LHP and I'm going to run everyone's platoon splits and then post them.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 19:09:08 GMT -5
The Indians' lineup features 4 switch-hitters, 2 platoons (in CF and RF), 1 LHB, and 2 RHB. That makes relief matchups really interesting, which is why I'm going to spend way too much time tonight trying to get a handle on the platoon splits of all 11 guys.
Vs RHP Vs LHP 1. Carlos Santana 0 (S) 1. Rajai Davis 8 (R) 2. Jason Kipnis 4 (L) 2. Jason Kipnis 4 (L) 3. Francisco Lindor 6 (S) 3. Francisco Lindor 6 (S) 4. Mike Napoli 3 (R) 4. Mike Napoli 0 (R) 5. Jose Ramirez 5 (S) 5. Carlos Santana 3 (S) 6. Lonnie Chisenhall 9 (L) 6. Jose Ramirez 5 (S) 7. Coco Crisp 7 (S) 7. Brandon Guyer 9 (R) 8. Tyler Naquin 8 (L) 8. Coco Crisp 7 (S) 9. Roberto Perez 2 (R) 9. Roberto Perez 2 (R)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 20:46:24 GMT -5
The big thing about the Indians is that three of the four switch-hitters (everyone but Crisp, whom you probably remember is a bit better from the left side) have almost no platoon splits.
This is points of wOBA, career, regressed to the mean for sample size.
.038 Kipnis (L) .032 Guyer (R) .030 Davis (R) .030 Naquin (L) .030 Average LHB .028 Napoli (R) .026 Chisenhall (L) .020 Average RHB .018 Perez (R) .013 Crisp (S better L) .006 Santana (S better R) .003 Ramirez (S better R) .002 Lindor (S better L)
While neutral switch-hitters are tough to compete against, they are also easier to think about. You don't have to try to turn them to their weak side, because they don't have one.
A lineup that features either 7 effective LHB or 8 RHB is very tough on a pen that has relievers with big splits. It's kind of inexcusable that JF didn't take a better look at Tazawa, who has a reverse career split. Maybe the analytics folks can talk him into including him on the roster. He might be our second best RHR right now, against their LH lineup.
The other thing we want to look at is how Guyer, Davis, Chisenhall, and Naquin have been as pinch-hitters. This is career wOBA, pinch hit wOBA (PA as PH).
Guyer .334, .287 (89) Davis .309, .185 (17) Chisenhall .316, .211 (15) Naquin .376, .124 (11)
Pinch-hitting is hard. The Book argues that managers do too much of it (and fans call for too much of it) because no one factors in the built-in penalty for it. You can use a RHR with big platoon splits against the 7-8-9-1 of their RH lineup and not worry about the pinch-hitters, and ditto for 6-7-8 of their LH lineup.
Next: our bullpen, quality and splits.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2016 10:14:40 GMT -5
So here's a first take on our RHR. I have tried to find the wOBA and xFIP allowed that best seems to represent their talent, and in most cases, guys pitched noticeably better after Bannister went into the dugout on 7/5, so that's what I've used. In every case, I've looked at both their raw numbers and the numbers normalized for an average split of RHB and LHB faced, and taken what's worse. * means a slight tweak for that, ** a significant adjustment.
Name wOBA xFIP What it is Tazawa .212 2.77 Through 5/28, since 8/28, SSS Kelly .236 2.33 Since 9/1, but a SSS Uehara .248 3.13 Since 7/5 ** Kimbrel .253 3.46 Season * Ziegler .262 3.17 With Sox * Barnes .317 3.68 Since 7/5 ** Hembree .309 4.49 Since 7/5 ** Tazawa .408 5.09 From 5/29 to 8/27 Tazawa: Look at those first and last lines. The dates where he transitioned from being good to bad and back are entirely unambiguous. You saw it; it wasn't random. It's highly unlikely that he's actually our best reliever, but it's a dead certainty that he's better than Barnes. It appears as if JF has buried him as a mopup guy because he made one bad pitch, to Logan Forsysthe with the bases full of Abad refugees and two outs and the Sox leading 6-4, in the second game of his resurrection (JF apparently liked what he saw in the first game enough to trust him in that situation). Since he also has a career reverse split, his omission from the roster vs. the Indians would be malpractice. It's true that he has a poor record in the clutch over his career (+.013 of wOBA / +0.42 of ERA), but he'd be a significant weapon in average leverage and maybe as good as Ziegler as a high-lev set-up RHR.
Kelly: We have no idea yet exactly how good he is. But he's been great, and JF has noticed. His stint in AAA saved us a year of control; he could be the post-Kimbrel closer.
Uehara: His first outing with Bannister in the dugout was rough, but after that you can draw a line where he's returned to his old self. I think it's for real. He was rough in the clutch his first two years with the O's, which reduces his career numbers, but after that he's been consistently good (-.007 / -0.22).
Kimbrel: His numbers are worse since 7/5 (.285, 3.92 *) and even worse since 9/1 (.285, 4.47). He's had a good career clutch differential (-.006 / -0.18). If he can pitch to his season numbers, he's nearly as good as Koji and will be fine as a closer. Given his problems pitching in non-save situations, if he can't do that, he's actively making the team worse to the point where an injury would make things better.
Ziegler: Just really good, and yet another guy who has been better than second-half Kimbrel. How many is that? Four. And that's just the RHP. Slightly good clutch (-.002 / -0.06).
Barnes: He's been -.019 / -0.61 clutch in a very SSS; clearly that has influenced (unduly) JF's use of him. A really solid long guy, and there are certainly signs that he can play a higher-lev role next year. But with Ziegler, Kelly, Tazawa, Ross, and Pomeranz all available for the 6th and 7th, he should not be sniffing high-leverage in the post-season.
Hembree: His SSS clutch differential is +.029 / +0.93, and that may be as meaningless as Barnes', but maybe some of it as real, and, oh yeah, he's the least good pitcher anyway. He should not be in the discussion.
Next: the LHR. After that, I'll try to get a handle on true platoon splits.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2016 10:46:45 GMT -5
I'm not going to bother running numbers on Abad or Pomeranz. The former is not in the discussion and the latter is clearly your best LHR, the guy who should be teaming with Kelly and Ziegler to navigate the 7th.
Ross is .283 / 3.97 (wOBA allowed / xFIP) on the season and .279 / 4.46 since July 5. IOW, his results have been the same, but he's relied more on controlling contact while his peripherals have declined. Since Bannister's magic has been largely at controlling hard contact, I wouldn't read too much into the xFIP decline.
He's -.021 / -0.67 clutch differential career*, which is a bit more awesomely impressive than Barnes, but it's in a sample size nearly 5 times as large (322 IP vs. 67). He's been tougher than Barnes on RHB, so he's your first option as a long man, and he's absolutely good enough to pitch in high leverage if needed.
Scott's .287 / 4.56. I think the wOBA versus hitters who are unfamiliar with him is for real. He may be useful later in the post-season against a team with multiple elite LHB with significant platoon splits. But you're not going to need three LHR to handle Kipnis.
*Yeah, all I'm doing here is converting Clutch / IP to points of wOBA and multiplying that by .31 to get ERA.
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