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9/9-9/11 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 8, 2016 10:35:10 GMT -5
9/9 Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello 19-3 3.23) @ Blue Jays (RHP Marco Estrada 8-7 3.56) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI9/10 Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez 2-6 4.83) @ Blue Jays (LHP JA Happ 17-4 3.34) 1:05 pm ET, NESN/FOX/WEEI9/11 Red Sox (RHP Clay Buchholz 6-10 4.99) @ Blue Jays (RHP Aaron Sanchez 13-2 2.92) 1:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 8, 2016 10:54:07 GMT -5
Thank you mods and thank you ericmvan for the brilliant idea (which I was about to put forward...really I was). Let's get it going......the important games are here. It's been a couple of years and I am raring to go.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2016 11:18:56 GMT -5
Getting their three best starters. This should be interesting.
Win two and they're in the driver's seat. Win three and they won't have to look back for the rest of the month.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 8, 2016 11:41:04 GMT -5
Getting their three best starters. This should be interesting. Win two and they're in the driver's seat. Win three and they won't have to look back for the rest of the month. Agree. These should be very tough wins to get. Most likely, they will have to be on top of their game.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 8, 2016 11:44:25 GMT -5
Ziegler will pivotal in that series.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Sept 8, 2016 11:51:58 GMT -5
Betts heating up again would be nice.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 8, 2016 12:18:22 GMT -5
I'm sure the Jays are in a great mood after getting swept in NY. Hopefully we're catching them at a good time. I may be wrong, but I believe the 3 pitchers we're facing have not been that dominat lately.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 8, 2016 12:38:36 GMT -5
I'm sure the Jays are in a great mood after getting swept in NY. Hopefully we're catching them at a good time. I may be wrong, but I believe the 3 pitchers we're facing have not been that dominat lately. Estrada has had 1 good start in his last 5 in terms of ER, but his peripherals have been fairly bad (with exception to FIP in his most recent start). He's a peripheral outperformer, but he hasn't been too hot. Happ has been roughed up in terms of ER in 4 straight starts, but his peripherals were only ugly in the last 2. Still a good time to face him. Since the beginning of August, Sanchez has a line of 3.90 ERA / 4.12 FIP / 4.22 xFIP. Not bad at all. Only blip is that he hasn't been getting many Ks in his past 2 starts and gave up a couple HRs in his last outing. Either way he's a tough starter to face.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2016 13:00:13 GMT -5
Tough series, but hopefully we are catching the Jays at the right time (1-5 in their last six).
This won't sound optimistic, but really the Red Sox just have to avoid getting swept. A sweep puts them two back again. Even just getting one of these next three keeps them in a tie for first heading into the final 20 games or so. Obviously, I'm hoping for more than that though. Side note: how great is it watching your team play meaningful games in September? This is what it's all about. Can't wait to watch this race to the finish.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 8, 2016 13:09:23 GMT -5
Is anyone else still having as much trouble as I am with the fact J.A. Happ is pretty good? It's been like three years now and I still see his name and think of the stiff who was getting lit up in the late aughts and early teens for Philly and Houston. I'm not exaggerating here either - it's like my brain needs to reset for a moment when I think of him being good. Even in that one pretty okay season for the Phillies back in '09 he still wasn't very impressive.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2016 13:24:49 GMT -5
Estrada's season, with his last 5 starts separated. I compiled this several days ago! No comment till late tonight ...
GS 19 5 IP/GS 6.5 5.2 BA .180 .308 OBP .253 .375 SA .335 .542 ERA- 68 153 FIP- 89 147 xFIP- 104 123 SIERA 4.21 4.81 BABIP .208 .329 HR/FB .091 .189 LOB% .776 .710 LD% .182 .238 GB% .345 .321 PU% .089 .048 Hard% .326 .326 Pull% .408 .454 OK, I lied ... the more I look at Hard% the more I suspect that BIS has put the separator between Medium and Hard too low. Estrada's ReallyHard% must have skyrocketed, right?
Tonight's topic: how predictive is this?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 8, 2016 13:29:12 GMT -5
Yeah, realistically, going 1-2 this series isn't bad, but this is when you gotta win your division, so winning this series would be great. Leaving Toronto up 2 games heading into the rest of the year would be awesome ...
This could be a really fun month. If the Sox do well, it's going to be at the expense of Toronto, Baltimore and the NYYankees. Would be great to crush the dreams of the Yankees.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 8, 2016 14:32:35 GMT -5
Yeah, realistically, going 1-2 this series isn't bad, but this is when you gotta win your division, so winning this series would be great. Leaving Toronto up 2 games heading into the rest of the year would be awesome ... This could be a really fun month. If the Sox do well, it's going to be at the expense of Toronto, Baltimore and the NYYankees. Would be great to crush the dreams of the Yankees. IMO, the Yankees are playing with house money at this point. When they traded their 2 best relievers and best offensive player, anything they did after that would be gravy. Your right though, now that they're in the hunt, I would imagine their fanbase is getting hope for playoff baseball.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 8, 2016 14:45:28 GMT -5
Isn't Pomeranz slated to throw on the last day of the series?
Are the Sox seriously skipping Pomeranz because he's left handed???
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 8, 2016 15:39:04 GMT -5
Isn't Pomeranz slated to throw on the last day of the series? Are the Sox seriously skipping Pomeranz because he's left handed??? Farrell is saving Pomeranz in case they need him to pinch run.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2016 15:47:42 GMT -5
Isn't Pomeranz slated to throw on the last day of the series? Are the Sox seriously skipping Pomeranz because he's left handed??? Per the Herald, it's to keep Price and Buchholz on their regular 5-day rotation and give Pomeranz some rest (remember, big innings jump this year).
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 8, 2016 16:18:34 GMT -5
Isn't Pomeranz slated to throw on the last day of the series? Are the Sox seriously skipping Pomeranz because he's left handed??? Per the Herald, it's to keep Price and Buchholz on their regular 5-day rotation and give Pomeranz some rest (remember, big innings jump this year). It also makes a lot of sense to get Buchholz pitching vs. Toronto's RH heavy lineup and Pomeranz with the short RF porch in Baltimore.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 8, 2016 18:40:52 GMT -5
I'm commenting here on a discussion that began in the thread on the Padres series. I've thought for some time that Xander needed time off and now his performance has fallen way off. I'd give him the first game of the Toronto series off. The difference in the RS chances of winning that game with Holt at SS as opposed to X in his current form is tiny and I think he needs it that badly.
This is one that I think you CAN put on JF.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 8, 2016 19:00:11 GMT -5
Estrada's season, with his last 5 starts separated. I compiled this several days ago! No comment till late tonight ... GS 19 5 IP/GS 6.5 5.2 BA .180 .308 OBP .253 .375 SA .335 .542 ERA- 68 153 FIP- 89 147 xFIP- 104 123 SIERA 4.21 4.81 BABIP .208 .329 HR/FB .091 .189 LOB% .776 .710 LD% .182 .238 GB% .345 .321 PU% .089 .048 Hard% .326 .326 Pull% .408 .454 OK, I lied ... the more I look at Hard% the more I suspect that BIS has put the separator between Medium and Hard too low. Estrada's ReallyHard% must have skyrocketed, right? Tonight's topic: how predictive is this? Pretty much worse on every measure ... some of it looks like some good luck earlier has turned to bad luck now, but not all of it. Of course, it's not predictive in a single-game sense (he could have a great game against the Red Sox), but in general, he doesn't look good right now. I wonder what has happened to his pitches
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 8, 2016 19:22:18 GMT -5
Per the Herald, it's to keep Price and Buchholz on their regular 5-day rotation and give Pomeranz some rest (remember, big innings jump this year). It also makes a lot of sense to get Buchholz pitching vs. Toronto's RH heavy lineup and Pomeranz with the short RF porch in Baltimore. Buchholz also has very good career numbers in Rogers Center.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 8, 2016 19:57:01 GMT -5
I don't agree with pushing Pomeranz. I just think he's better than Buchholz.
I hope the move works out though, I guess the innings is a mild concern.
The Jays are the team to put all your chips in for and I think Pomeranz could be the Sox third best starter right now.
I like that Buchholz is hot at the moment though, which makes me feel a little better at least.
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Post by jbuttah on Sept 8, 2016 21:43:14 GMT -5
I'm commenting here on a discussion that began in the thread on the Padres series. I've thought for some time that Xander needed time off and now his performance has fallen way off. I'd give him the first game of the Toronto series off. The difference in the RS chances of winning that game with Holt at SS as opposed to X in his current form is tiny and I think he needs it that badly. This is one that I think you CAN put on JF. I was hoping JF would rest Bogaerts for 1 game against OAK and 1 against SD, in preparation for the sprint to the finish entirely against division rivals. Bogaert's had 1 swing in particular in the last game against SD that he looked totally exhausted. It might even be too later him. The positional equivalent of being Tazawa'd.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 9, 2016 0:07:14 GMT -5
I'm commenting here on a discussion that began in the thread on the Padres series. I've thought for some time that Xander needed time off and now his performance has fallen way off. I'd give him the first game of the Toronto series off. The difference in the RS chances of winning that game with Holt at SS as opposed to X in his current form is tiny and I think he needs it that badly. This is one that I think you CAN put on JF. I was hoping JF would rest Bogaerts for 1 game against OAK and 1 against SD, in preparation for the sprint to the finish entirely against division rivals. Bogaert's had 1 swing in particular in the last game against SD that he looked totally exhausted. It might even be too later him. The positional equivalent of being Tazawa'd. I think they would have loved to rest him but at the same time they just hope that he will get going and instead he is getting worse.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2016 2:54:06 GMT -5
Estrada's season, with his last 5 starts separated. I compiled this several days ago! No comment till late tonight ... GS 19 5 IP/GS 6.5 5.2 BA .180 .308 OBP .253 .375 SA .335 .542 ERA- 68 153 FIP- 89 147 xFIP- 104 123 SIERA 4.21 4.81 BABIP .208 .329 HR/FB .091 .189 LOB% .776 .710 LD% .182 .238 GB% .345 .321 PU% .089 .048 Hard% .326 .326 Pull% .408 .454 OK, I lied ... the more I look at Hard% the more I suspect that BIS has put the separator between Medium and Hard too low. Estrada's ReallyHard% must have skyrocketed, right? Tonight's topic: how predictive is this? Better yet: what's driving the immense change in BABIP, and the big one in HR/FB? BIS breaks down contact 5 ways rather than 3: Grounder, Liner, Fliner (Liner) which is actually a soft liner, Fliner (Fly) which is actually a hard fly ball and hence, paradoxically, do more damage than the Fliner (Liner)s, and Fly (Fly) which is an ordinary fly ball. We can break out popups from the latter. His popups are down 39%, from .157 to .095 of balls made contact with (excluding bunts). His OF fly ball rate is unchanged, .225 to .226. So is his BABIP on those, from .000 to .000. Yup, no bloop hits all year. His HR rate is up 72%, from .028 to .048 of all contact. His hard fly balls are up just 14%, but his HR rate on them is up 190%, from 4 in 30 (13.3%) to 3 in 10. However, he's gone from a .346 BABIP and .731 SABIP to .286 BABIP and SABIP. IOW, he looks like he's been lucky in his bad games. His soft liners are down 11% and his BABIP on them up 6%. Just noise. Now it gets telling. His pure LD% is up 124%, from .058 to .131 of contact. His BABIP is actually down, from .684 to .545. His GB% is down just 8%, from .348 to .321, but his BABIP is up 171%, from .150 to .407. Some of that may be luck, but since it accompanies a similar increase in LD%, it's safe to assume that he's also giving up a lot more hard ground balls. To sum up: 39% fewer popups, 91% more of his outfield flies leaving the park (.126 to .241), 124% more hard line drives, and 171% more of his ground balls going for hits. And all of that accompanying a SIERA that's 14% worse, and that's based on SO, BB, and GB%, which is to say, none of these things.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 9, 2016 5:38:51 GMT -5
Sounds like we need a win tonight boys.
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