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Post by mattpicard on Sept 23, 2016 13:21:19 GMT -5
9/23 Red Sox (LHP Drew Pomeranz 2-5 4.91) @ Rays (RHP Chris Archer 8-18 4.05) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI9/24 Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello 21-4 3.08) @ Rays (RHP Matt Andriese 8-7 4.41) 6:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI9/25 Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez 3-7 4.84) @ Rays (RHP Jake Odorizzi 9-6 3.73) 1:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 23, 2016 13:37:50 GMT -5
Wow - combined pitchers' records (using Pom's AL record) - 10-23! Watch - we will get a pitcher's duel...why not - that would be ordinary in this most wonderful, wacky season!
What I would love to see - Drew find himself and pitch 6 excellent innings. Boston get to Archer early and often so he can do his bizarre pouting...and minimize his irritating antics. Also, to quell the horrific cowbells that the few thousand of Rays fans in attendance manage to bang.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 23, 2016 14:29:16 GMT -5
2B Dustin Pedroia (R) SS Xander Bogaerts (R) DH David Ortiz (L) RF Mookie Betts (R) 1B Hanley Ramirez (R) 3B Travis Shaw (L) CF Jackie Bradley (L) C Bryan Holaday (R) LF Brock Holt (L)
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 8m8 minutes ago Farrell has spoken about wanting to give hitters like Holt and Shaw a chance to get hot. In a way, Benintendi already is more established.
JF: elite tactician.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2016 15:11:44 GMT -5
Strength of remaining schedule of AL contenders, in the 4th column after adjusting for number of remaining home games. I've also projected the final win total, but that barely changes the current standings, which is why I've sorted by SoS this time.
Tm Opp GR HG SoS Qual Pro W NYA .591 10 6 .581 .513 83.3 Bos .540 9 3 .556 .653 94.4 Tor .564 10 7 .544 .580 88.4 Bal .506 9 3 .522 .542 86.7 Cle .501 10 3 .521 .578 94.6 Det .496 10 7 .477 .541 87.6 Sea .465 10 4 .474 .516 85.4 Tex .474 9 6 .458 .519 95.1 Hou .463 9 6 .446 .519 86.2
Astros and Rangers have hilariously easy schedules compared to the AL East clubs, but as the last column shows, over a 10 game stretch that has less influence then you'd think -- although it's the reason we don't project to catch the Rangers for best record despite having a .653 to .519 edge in Quality.
However, we have played .731 ball since August 31 -- .719 ball against a .521 schedule (.509 opponents, 8 at home and 13 on the road). If we keep that up, we project to 95.2 wins and first seed. (If we keep playing 1.000 ball against .528 opponents ... hey, that's easy!)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 15:36:50 GMT -5
Big start for Pomeranz. A spot in the playoff rotation could very well be on the line.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2016 15:48:01 GMT -5
Big start for Pomeranz. A spot in the playoff rotation could very well be on the line. There's a chance they clinch before his next start (last game of the Yankees series, 9/29). If he gets hit hard tonight, they might move him to the bullpen and see if he'll be useful as a LHR. Two strong starts would make him a nice option for a 4th starter against a team that hits RHP much better than LHP.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 23, 2016 16:30:52 GMT -5
Big start for Pomeranz. A spot in the playoff rotation could very well be on the line. There's a chance they clinch before his next start (last game of the Yankees series, 9/29). If he gets hit hard tonight, they might move him to the bullpen and see if he'll be useful as a LHR. Two strong starts would make him a nice option for a 4th starter against a team that hits RHP much better than LHP. I am trying to figure out which team in the AL playoffs that might be. The Tigers lineup is 8 right-handed hitters and one switch hitter. Toronto's big hitters are all right handed. I thought I heard the other day that Cleveland does better against left-handed pitching than right-handed. So which possible AL play off opponent would we want to start 3 lefties against? And which possible play off opponent would we need a bunch of lefties out of the pen? I am not sure there is such a team in the AL and so am not sure Pomeranz is going to get a start in the playoffs even if he has a good start tonight. He may not even make the roster if management thinks that Scott is a better option as the second lefty in the pen. I do not see them carrying 3 lefties in the pen against teams like Detroit or Toronto, for example. Would be interested to hear if anyone thinks there is a possible AL playoff team against which left-handed pitching would be helpful. I do not know much about Texas, for example.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 23, 2016 16:48:56 GMT -5
At this point, all I care about is avoiding injuries.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2016 17:18:13 GMT -5
There is so little difference in JBJ's performance by batting order position that it's almost comical.
My metric is linear weights per 4 PA, adjusted for team offense.
JBJ when hot has been 1.29 hitting 5th and 1.38 hitting 6th. And 1.29 hitting 8th and 1.38 hitting 9th. Seriously.
Hot:
1.36 5th and 6th (127 PA) 3.94 7th (29 PA) 1.35 8th and 9th (110 PA)
Cold:
-0.40 5th and 6th (198 PA) -1.59 7th (21 PA) -0.32 8th and 9th (70 PA)
Is there any causal relationship where hitting 5th and 6th makes him go cold?
He was moved out of 8 and 9 after 65% of his first hot streak, the first 19 games. That was the entire rationale for moving him back down to 9 on August 27. The next 4 games he went 3/12, 2B, BB, 7 SO while the team scored 30 runs. Then he got hot.
The only argument in favor of this is that when he's hitting 5 and 6 and gets hot, he goes cold after 7 or 8 games. That actually happened 3 straight times (and when he was moved up originally, he went cold after another 10 games). Whereas he's now been hot 21 games hitting 7-9 (and twice 6th). It's possible that there's some mental factor that shortens his hot streaks when he's higher up in the lineup. I think it's unlikely, though ... unless he has come to believe that. Has anyone asked him?
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 23, 2016 17:28:42 GMT -5
2B Dustin Pedroia (R) SS Xander Bogaerts (R) DH David Ortiz (L) RF Mookie Betts (R) 1B Hanley Ramirez (R) 3B Travis Shaw (L) CF Jackie Bradley (L) C Bryan Holaday (R) LF Brock Holt (L) Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 8m8 minutes ago Farrell has spoken about wanting to give hitters like Holt and Shaw a chance to get hot. In a way, Benintendi already is more established.
JF: elite tactician. Love him but don't think he's more established.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 23, 2016 18:00:16 GMT -5
I mean, he's just better. Not really debatable.
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Post by bigpupp on Sept 23, 2016 18:18:19 GMT -5
Papi is amazing.
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Post by p23w on Sept 23, 2016 18:20:09 GMT -5
And the swan song season dream continues....
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Post by Canseco on Sept 23, 2016 18:28:23 GMT -5
Big Dave hit that one pretty well.
Also, can someone explain to me why Farrell continues to play Holaday over Vazquez? It makes no sense to me on any level.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Sept 23, 2016 18:33:58 GMT -5
... can someone explain to me why Farrell continues to play Holaday over Vazquez? It makes no sense to me on any level. Have you considered the manager has information you do not that tilts the decision in favor of H over V?
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 23, 2016 18:57:38 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 8m8 minutes ago Farrell has spoken about wanting to give hitters like Holt and Shaw a chance to get hot. In a way, Benintendi already is more established. JF: elite tactician. That's pretty defensible since we're very close to the post-season and keeping guys on the right rhythm while rotating dudes that are less than 100% like Benny is key.
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Post by doctorduck21 on Sept 23, 2016 19:01:44 GMT -5
[quote timestamp="1474673303" source="/post/233442/thread" Have you considered the manager has information you do not that tilts the decision in favor of H over V? [/quote] From my quick count of checking the box scores, Holaday has caught 6 of the last 7 Pomeranz's starts. Maybe Pomeranz told him he prefers throwing to Holaday. I don't know if that's true but it could be an explanation
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 23, 2016 19:14:34 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 8m8 minutes ago Farrell has spoken about wanting to give hitters like Holt and Shaw a chance to get hot. In a way, Benintendi already is more established. JF: elite tactician. That's pretty defensible since we're very close to the post-season and keeping guys on the right rhythm while rotating dudes that are less than 100% like Benny is key. Yeah, plus one of Holt or Shaw will be the starting third baseman in the playoffs, so you might as well let the both play and see if one separates himself as the choice.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 23, 2016 19:16:57 GMT -5
I think it is pretty smart extending the bench right now. Let's see how it plays out. Guys are motivated to get on the playoff roster, and musical chairs will happen. I don't think they are concerned about who they'll face.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 23, 2016 19:19:00 GMT -5
i don't think it will be 3 lefthanders in the playoff rotation. It's between ERod and Drew, IMO. And both could be overcome by Wright, although unlikely
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Sept 23, 2016 19:23:42 GMT -5
Great turn by Pedey. Pretty surprised that they didn't challenge that though.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2016 19:26:46 GMT -5
Playing the Rays feels like a little bit of a let down after the last two series. Of course being up 5.5 games with 9 to go probably has something to do with it.
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Post by Canseco on Sept 23, 2016 19:28:37 GMT -5
... can someone explain to me why Farrell continues to play Holaday over Vazquez? It makes no sense to me on any level. Have you considered the manager has information you do not that tilts the decision in favor of H over V? Yes I have, and unless it is injury related, an idea that hasn't been mentioned, then it continues to make no sense. Vazquez is an important part of the organization going forward.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 23, 2016 19:41:16 GMT -5
Nice to see my man Drew going 5 strong. Against a AAAA team whatever, but it's a step in the right direction. I'd consider taking him out of the game now to preserve his arm, but maybe another inning to boost confidence which I bet he needs right now wouldn't be too bad either.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 23, 2016 19:44:03 GMT -5
You'll take that outing from Pomeranz right now 10 times out of 10. Given his recent struggles, the team's recent success, and the fact that you have infinite bullpen arms right now, this is a good step forwards
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