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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2016 10:56:26 GMT -5
Arbitration is necessarily based on past accomplishments, not projected future value. Trying to make it a fair market measure would be impossible and unmanageable. The problem is that "saves" is one of the accomplishments it considers. Therefore a mediocre closer will make more than an outstanding set-up man, just because of saves. And if someone thinks that a player should do "what is best for the team," try being an outstanding performer at your company who is put on a less lucrative career path than an inferior worker because it's best for the team. You wouldn't like that, and shouldn't either. You'd think, "wow, my company needs to re-evaluate it's salary structure to properly value the skills it claims to want to promote." And so it is with baseball. Kill the save. They could either kill the save or improve relief pitcher WAR and use that instead. There's no way it's going to be used in arbitration when we can't even agree which version of WAR makes sense to use. ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB - heck, even WPA maybe. But whose WAR calculation would you use? Fans and media liking it is not a good enough reason to use it as an official counting stat used to determine player salaries. And, as you said, your strategy of including holds still has the problem that it only is possible to get credit for pitching well in a game you're winning. Allowing 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning when you're winning 7-4 gives you a hold. Doing it two days in a row gets you two holds, and you're only at 1 1/3 innings. Pitching three innings of a game you're losing 3-2 gets you nada and then you're not available the next day to build a counting stat.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 2, 2016 12:04:44 GMT -5
The problem is that saves and holds are always situation dependent. You don't get a hold for coming into the 8th inning with Miguel Cabrera at the plate with the bases loaded in a tie game and strike him out as well as the two following batters. You need to do a WPA analysis for it to be more accurate.
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Post by classylefthander on Nov 2, 2016 12:26:42 GMT -5
What about FG's shutdown and meltdown statistics for relievers? If you express it as sd/md, you get a picture of a relever's effectiveness based on changes in WPA (+-.06).
e.g., Kimbrell 27:10 Uehara 20:5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 2, 2016 14:25:44 GMT -5
Come on most players play about 140 games a year and he played 134 the last two years at first. Unless you really think the average player plays 162 a year. It's closer to a full season than 3/4. So you trust your eyes or advanced stats? Hanley played 133 games at 1B last year and was -5 in DRS. That seems about right, slightly below average. Thing is you got to see all of Hanley games and only a few of EE. Yes, I trust my eyes over less than a full season of advanced defensive stats. Defensive stats stabilize after 2 years and EE was awful before the last two years. Hanley's stats last year match what he looks like. So you trust Hanley's 133 games at 1B, but not EE 134 games, that makes total sense. Over EE last 361 games covering the last 5 years at 1B he is -14 DRS. That's about exactly equal to Hanley's numbers per 133 games from last year. Never mind that he has cut down his errors and seems to be getting better at 1B. The numbers say he is slightly below average. When you say awful I think Hanley's 92 games in OF were he was -17 DRS. Someone that's D is so bad they are killing the team. EE at 1B is not going to kill your team D.
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Post by thursty on Nov 2, 2016 14:40:53 GMT -5
"Guess that's true for arbitration, but it obviously needs to catch up. No GM in the league would pay Kimbrel or Francisco Rodriguez more than Miller just because they had more saves."
I can think of at least one GM . . .
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2016 14:50:08 GMT -5
What about FG's shutdown and meltdown statistics for relievers? If you express it as sd/md, you get a picture of a relever's effectiveness based on changes in WPA (+-.06). e.g., Kimbrell 27:10 Uehara 20:5 That still doesn't accont for degree, and it still has the problem of emphasizing multiple short outings over one close one. If a pitcher throws three scoreless in a tie game it is more important than a pitcher who twice pitches 2/3 of an inning in three-run games. WPA would account for that. And, not to overthink things, traditional measures like innings and ERA would too. Those don't count situation obviously, but as a measure of raw effectiveness they work just fine.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 2, 2016 18:04:35 GMT -5
What about FG's shutdown and meltdown statistics for relievers? If you express it as sd/md, you get a picture of a relever's effectiveness based on changes in WPA (+-.06). e.g., Kimbrell 27:10 Uehara 20:5 That still doesn't accont for degree, and it still has the problem of emphasizing multiple short outings over one close one. If a pitcher throws three scoreless in a tie game it is more important than a pitcher who twice pitches 2/3 of an inning in three-run games. WPA would account for that. And, not to overthink things, traditional measures like innings and ERA would too. Those don't count situation obviously, but as a measure of raw effectiveness they work just fine. You could come up with entirely reasonable reliever salaries just using basic, fundamental stats like innings pitched, strikeouts, etc. We don't need to invent anything new, we just need to get rid of the save, at least for salary purposes.
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Post by jdb on Nov 2, 2016 22:09:56 GMT -5
Thinking a little outside the box here what about signing Neil Walker (assuming no QO) and putting him at 1B so Hanley can DH? I think he'd make a smooth transition and shouldn't cost a ton.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 3, 2016 0:55:13 GMT -5
Thinking a little outside the box here what about signing Neil Walker (assuming no QO) and putting him at 1B so Hanley can DH? I think he'd make a smooth transition and shouldn't cost a ton. I don't think he hits enough to be a viable 1b.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 3, 2016 0:58:32 GMT -5
I completely disagree, especially if Chapman is given his opt out clause. Closers typically get paid more, hence why he would WANT saves. Ohh and good luck blowing away other team's offers when the Yankees get heavily involved. I think GMs and agents have been paying attention to Andrew Miller and would probably value him a lot more than most closers if he were a free agent now despite only getting 12 saves this year. I think the role of traditional closer is on its way to extinction.I don't think that's the case. In the post-season that may be the case, but in the regular season, the way Andrew Miller pitched, he would have had Mike Marshall (circa 1974) like stats. He wouldn't hold up doing that. Yes using a guy to get crucial outs earlier in the game might be more frequent, but it only works if you have a good traditional closer like a Cody Allen. If Allen had been mediocre in the traditional closer role blowing 9th inning leads, it would have undermined the great work done by Miller earlier in the game. What good is it if you get crucial outs in the 6th inning but your bullpen after your fireman reliever leaves can't hold the lead in the 9th? I can see teams employing a "fireman" (as opposed to a designated 8th inning guy) and a traditional closer, but I don't think one works well without the other.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 3, 2016 7:17:45 GMT -5
Thinking a little outside the box here what about signing Neil Walker (assuming no QO) and putting him at 1B so Hanley can DH? I think he'd make a smooth transition and shouldn't cost a ton. I don't think he hits enough to be a viable 1b. He probably does - he's a legitimately good player who's a fair bet to outhit Hanley and an even better bet to outhit Shaw and Sandoval. He had a 118 OPS+ last year, and it's 116 over the last three years. But some team should be willing to pay him like a first division second baseman, which is more than the Red Sox should pay him to be a second division first baseman. EDIT: Also, Walker probably gets a QO, right? The Mets would totally bring him back at 1/$16.5.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 3, 2016 8:12:41 GMT -5
No reason to trade him if you get Chapman. Just because you can get an ok deal is not a good reason. You would be a lot better off holding onto him and if he bounces back like we both think will happen you can trade him at deadline, for a Kings ransom. That's if other players step up to elite level and that is a long shot. Sure maybe Kelly does or Barnes, but you can't count on that happening. If you think Kimbrel is going to bounce back and you want to trade him and sign Chapman. Then why not just keep Kimbrel? When both are pitching well they are both elite, yes Chapman might be slightly better, but not much. You sign Chapman, so he teams up with Kimbrel to give you an elite bullpen. Also what Kimbrel makes is not going to get you a lot now a days. So clearing his salary is not something I would worry about. It sure seems like DD has been given the OK by ownership to spend. This team doesn't have many needs. The positions were they could use upgrades are 1B and 3B. Now you have players like Shaw and Pablo that can hold down the fort. We also have elite prospects like Moncada close to ready and good prospects like Sam Travis waiting in the wings. We could use a bullpen arm, an elite guy and we really don't have anyone waiting in the wings that can be that. Maybe Kopech, but you can't count on him at this point. Hence why I think Chapman is a guy I go after hard. This team may not have many needs but imo they do have needs. I am concerned about catcher for example. I don't mind going into the season to see what Leon and Vaz can do - but I don't trust them. Nor do I trust Swihart. I don't like our 3b situation until Moncada eventually comes, but even then, Shaw and Panda imo can't hit lefties, and Holt this past year was also awful vs lefties. Therefore I don't like "Shaw and Panda holding down the fort." Shaw's last 3 of 4 years he couldn't hit lefties, and 4 of his last 6. And Panda looked extremely extremely ugly hitting vs lefties. SO not only do we need a 1b, but we need either a DH or 1b.
It's not out of the question to believe our catchers can't hit (until Swihart is ready - if he ever is), our 3b won't hit very well until Moncada comes (and looking at how Moncada seems- he is going to struggle a lot initially much more facing lefties) and even then - I'm not sure how good of a defensive player he will be, and ofc we need either a 1b or DH. I believe these concerns are more important than a 1 inning overall an 8th inning pitcher.
And I don't believe Chapman is "slightly better." Kimbrel was rated 30th by fangraphs this year and about 14 last year. Kimbrel's propensity to walk batters - in big games with a otn of pressure - I don't see how that would be very good. SO for teams that believe Kimbrel is only slightly worse - and believe like oyu and I that Kimbrel will bounce back- it would be the perfect time to sell him and get good value. I don't think we need to wait for a royal flush deck in order to sell Kimbrel.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2016 8:27:19 GMT -5
I think GMs and agents have been paying attention to Andrew Miller and would probably value him a lot more than most closers if he were a free agent now despite only getting 12 saves this year. I think the role of traditional closer is on its way to extinction.I don't think that's the case. In the post-season that may be the case, but in the regular season, the way Andrew Miller pitched, he would have had Mike Marshall (circa 1974) like stats. He wouldn't hold up doing that. Yes using a guy to get crucial outs earlier in the game might be more frequent, but it only works if you have a good traditional closer like a Cody Allen. If Allen had been mediocre in the traditional closer role blowing 9th inning leads, it would have undermined the great work done by Miller earlier in the game. What good is it if you get crucial outs in the 6th inning but your bullpen after your fireman reliever leaves can't hold the lead in the 9th? I can see teams employing a "fireman" (as opposed to a designated 8th inning guy) and a traditional closer, but I don't think one works well without the other. We could go back and forth on this forever. What good is your closer if your bullpen can't hold a lead for him to get a save? Which role do you want the better relief pitcher in? The fireman role or the closer role? You obviously can't pitch someone like Chapman or Miller did in the playoffs all season, but you can definitely do it for short periods of time in the highest leverage situations.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 3, 2016 9:01:15 GMT -5
Enough of this Cubs crap. The off-season has begun!
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Nov 3, 2016 10:39:24 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 3m3 minutes ago Frank Wren promoted to Senior VP of Player Personnel.
No wonder why Hazen, Sawdye and others jumped ship. Don't get too attached to the Red Sox top 10 under DD and Wren.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 3, 2016 10:44:38 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 3m3 minutes ago Frank Wren promoted to Senior VP of Player Personnel. No wonder why Hazen, Sawdye and others jumped ship. Don't get too attached to the Red Sox top 10 under DD and Wren. Relax my man, they just made all of their directors into VPs.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 3, 2016 10:44:52 GMT -5
Thinking a little outside the box here what about signing Neil Walker (assuming no QO) and putting him at 1B so Hanley can DH? I think he'd make a smooth transition and shouldn't cost a ton. If the cost is reasonable and his back checks out - this sounds good to me. Could even split time at DH to rest the back and be a backup at 3B in case the other options don't work out. I'm just curious as to what Walker will get on the open market. Assuming the back issue drives down the years....~2/33? ~3/50?
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 3, 2016 11:04:09 GMT -5
I'd sign Encarnacion and Jensen, even if you are overpaying on both of them. They're the two most likely definite fixes for potential holes on the team.
I'd try to go into the season with Sandoval/Shaw as the 3B options, with Moncada hopefully quickly improving, with a backup plan of a potential trade, even if it's an overpay.
I wonder (probably not) if they would give Melancon another chance.
I could also see them going back to Napoli at 1B on a two year deal rather than 4 for Encarnacion. I'd make a significant push for Ziegler, though I have to assume some other team will pay him "closer" $.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 3, 2016 11:09:35 GMT -5
No reason to trade him if you get Chapman. Just because you can get an ok deal is not a good reason. You would be a lot better off holding onto him and if he bounces back like we both think will happen you can trade him at deadline, for a Kings ransom. That's if other players step up to elite level and that is a long shot. Sure maybe Kelly does or Barnes, but you can't count on that happening. If you think Kimbrel is going to bounce back and you want to trade him and sign Chapman. Then why not just keep Kimbrel? When both are pitching well they are both elite, yes Chapman might be slightly better, but not much. You sign Chapman, so he teams up with Kimbrel to give you an elite bullpen. Also what Kimbrel makes is not going to get you a lot now a days. So clearing his salary is not something I would worry about. It sure seems like DD has been given the OK by ownership to spend. This team doesn't have many needs. The positions were they could use upgrades are 1B and 3B. Now you have players like Shaw and Pablo that can hold down the fort. We also have elite prospects like Moncada close to ready and good prospects like Sam Travis waiting in the wings. We could use a bullpen arm, an elite guy and we really don't have anyone waiting in the wings that can be that. Maybe Kopech, but you can't count on him at this point. Hence why I think Chapman is a guy I go after hard. This team may not have many needs but imo they do have needs. I am concerned about catcher for example. I don't mind going into the season to see what Leon and Vaz can do - but I don't trust them. Nor do I trust Swihart. I don't like our 3b situation until Moncada eventually comes, but even then, Shaw and Panda imo can't hit lefties, and Holt this past year was also awful vs lefties. Therefore I don't like "Shaw and Panda holding down the fort." Shaw's last 3 of 4 years he couldn't hit lefties, and 4 of his last 6. And Panda looked extremely extremely ugly hitting vs lefties. SO not only do we need a 1b, but we need either a DH or 1b.
It's not out of the question to believe our catchers can't hit (until Swihart is ready - if he ever is), our 3b won't hit very well until Moncada comes (and looking at how Moncada seems- he is going to struggle a lot initially much more facing lefties) and even then - I'm not sure how good of a defensive player he will be, and ofc we need either a 1b or DH. I believe these concerns are more important than a 1 inning overall an 8th inning pitcher.
And I don't believe Chapman is "slightly better." Kimbrel was rated 30th by fangraphs this year and about 14 last year. Kimbrel's propensity to walk batters - in big games with a otn of pressure - I don't see how that would be very good. SO for teams that believe Kimbrel is only slightly worse - and believe like oyu and I that Kimbrel will bounce back- it would be the perfect time to sell him and get good value. I don't think we need to wait for a royal flush deck in order to sell Kimbrel.
For catcher - I'm sure they'll bring in additional depth but a major upgrade would to very costly. We're going to have to hope that one of these guys works out. For 3B - If Rutledge is healthy then he looks to be your answer against LHP. An additional spring training depth piece wouldn't hurt here. This would make Holt, Young, Rutledge & Vazquez/Sandy the initial bench. I think we all agree that Chapman is better, but let's see who the Red Sox pickup before looking to trade from the bullpen. Right now the BP would be: Kimbrel, Smith, Ross, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, Buch. But Smith probably won't be ready until the second half of the season and there isn't really isn't a 'depth' option for the inevitable injury, so that leaves at least 2 holes to fill before discussing a Kimbrel trade (3 if they don't pickup Buch's option). - I realized while writing this that Hembree is out of options, so if someone needs to be sent down it would be Ross, Kelly or Barnes, which don't make much sense. Red Sox need a good AAA pitcher with options and potential.....like a Pat Light....
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Post by gerry on Nov 3, 2016 11:25:56 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 3m3 minutes ago Frank Wren promoted to Senior VP of Player Personnel. No wonder why Hazen, Sawdye and others jumped ship. Don't get too attached to the Red Sox top 10 under DD and Wren. So you are saying adios to Beni, Moncada, Devers, Travis, Dubon, Basabe, Kopech, Groome, etc. To what end?? This is the top offensive team. One of the top defensive teams. With a healthy, young, All-Star rotation led by two Cy Young types. There are very few missing pieces. The BP needs work and FA's are available. The likelihood is quite high that a combination of Panda, Hanley, Shaw, Holt, Young, Moncada, Travis, and a RHB to replace Aaron Hill's will successfully handle 1B, 3B, DH; and alternatives like EE are FA's costing just $ and a draft pick. Wren's job title is player development; different from DiPoto's title of player evaluation. He lives a quick trip from Ft. Meyers, Greenville, Salem and the minor league fields where they play and their coaches, staff and scouts are. I can see him having long, friendly discussions over dinners with them. He is a well connected good old boy who could give the Sox an information advantage in the southeast, as well as his executive/management role. That has real value. DD is too smart to dump the Farm to repair a Championship team which is not broken.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Nov 3, 2016 11:48:19 GMT -5
Wren has been given a new title of SVP Player Personnel whereas his prior title was SVP Baseball Operations. That seems clear to me that he will have a more definitive role with respect to trades, free agent signings, etc.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 3, 2016 14:37:23 GMT -5
No reason to trade him if you get Chapman. Just because you can get an ok deal is not a good reason. You would be a lot better off holding onto him and if he bounces back like we both think will happen you can trade him at deadline, for a Kings ransom. That's if other players step up to elite level and that is a long shot. Sure maybe Kelly does or Barnes, but you can't count on that happening. If you think Kimbrel is going to bounce back and you want to trade him and sign Chapman. Then why not just keep Kimbrel? When both are pitching well they are both elite, yes Chapman might be slightly better, but not much. You sign Chapman, so he teams up with Kimbrel to give you an elite bullpen. Also what Kimbrel makes is not going to get you a lot now a days. So clearing his salary is not something I would worry about. It sure seems like DD has been given the OK by ownership to spend. This team doesn't have many needs. The positions were they could use upgrades are 1B and 3B. Now you have players like Shaw and Pablo that can hold down the fort. We also have elite prospects like Moncada close to ready and good prospects like Sam Travis waiting in the wings. We could use a bullpen arm, an elite guy and we really don't have anyone waiting in the wings that can be that. Maybe Kopech, but you can't count on him at this point. Hence why I think Chapman is a guy I go after hard. This team may not have many needs but imo they do have needs. I am concerned about catcher for example. I don't mind going into the season to see what Leon and Vaz can do - but I don't trust them. Nor do I trust Swihart. I don't like our 3b situation until Moncada eventually comes, but even then, Shaw and Panda imo can't hit lefties, and Holt this past year was also awful vs lefties. Therefore I don't like "Shaw and Panda holding down the fort." Shaw's last 3 of 4 years he couldn't hit lefties, and 4 of his last 6. And Panda looked extremely extremely ugly hitting vs lefties. SO not only do we need a 1b, but we need either a DH or 1b.
It's not out of the question to believe our catchers can't hit (until Swihart is ready - if he ever is), our 3b won't hit very well until Moncada comes (and looking at how Moncada seems- he is going to struggle a lot initially much more facing lefties) and even then - I'm not sure how good of a defensive player he will be, and ofc we need either a 1b or DH. I believe these concerns are more important than a 1 inning overall an 8th inning pitcher.
And I don't believe Chapman is "slightly better." Kimbrel was rated 30th by fangraphs this year and about 14 last year. Kimbrel's propensity to walk batters - in big games with a otn of pressure - I don't see how that would be very good. SO for teams that believe Kimbrel is only slightly worse - and believe like oyu and I that Kimbrel will bounce back- it would be the perfect time to sell him and get good value. I don't think we need to wait for a royal flush deck in order to sell Kimbrel.
Your a glass half empty guy. You want all stars at every position, which just can't happen. No way do I think we need a catcher. I would bring in a Chris Young type player for 3B or 1B, or ideally a guy that can play both positions. Adding depth doesn't mean we need to go out and get an elite guy like EE. As to Kimbrel the walk issue so far is a one year spike, so when I say he will bounce back, I mean his walk numbers return to career norms. This year Kimbrel was just ok due to walks but everything else was very close to career norms. Last year outside first month he was elite. Seems he struggles adjusting to new team, just like Porcello and Price. Kimbrel if he's back to his old self is just a notch below Chapman. Look at career numbers and you'll see what I mean.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2016 14:37:29 GMT -5
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 3, 2016 15:09:47 GMT -5
I was happy with Clay's performance in the second half so I can't be too mad about them picking up his option. But I don't know if I can handle another season of the emotional roller coaster he frequently puts us on.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 3, 2016 16:20:38 GMT -5
I hope they trade him. In a weak starters market, they should be able to get a bat at third or first for him. I know people will hate that idea, but as long as Wright is healthy I do it. I'm ok with Johnson and Owens as SP depth. You can also add a few guys to AAA to help with depth.
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