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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 31, 2016 9:22:53 GMT -5
Should the Red Sox target (and possibly overpay) the player that the team feels best replaces Ortiz or should the Red Sox wait to get replacement with the best value? Why can't they do both? This is Boston after all? You want two DH's?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 31, 2016 9:23:16 GMT -5
Kopech has been reportedly throwing his fb at 95-99 in the AFL. This is clearly outstanding. But does this suggest that reports during the year of 103 and 105 were erroneous or does he have a "dead arm". The reports were and always have been that he sits 93-97, maybe sometimes sitting near 98 in the first inning and can touch higher. I'm not sure I buy that he's sitting 99, but he could be if the outings are shorter (I remember his first being just 3 innings). Reports were never that he was sitting at those crazy velocities, just touching them once during a game - which made me, at least, skeptical that they were anything other than a radar gun blip (although the 105 was on both guns behind the plate, reportedly and based on my sources, which is why it even got out there). Point is, I haven't heard anything "new" from the AFL on him other than the positive development that he got his control back after completely falling apart in that respect at the end of the year.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 31, 2016 10:50:20 GMT -5
Even his "105" wasn't even close to that on the pitchFX data. There were definitely starts where he was hitting 99/100 on pitchFX with frequency, so he certainly has the arm to do it for at least a semi-prolonged period of time. You would think that if he were to become a RP he could do it consistently, but I'd try to keep him as a starter for as long as possible. The FB has movement, the secondary pitches developed as his season with Salem went on, though he certainly appeared to be tapped out by the end of the season
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 31, 2016 11:26:02 GMT -5
I'd sign Chapman. He's a beast and he showed last night he can be used as a multi inning reliever earlier in the games during the post season. The problem is you would have to convince him to be a setup/Swiss knife reliever because Kimbrel can't do that. Now Andrew Miller may help here as he's made that role a big time thing again so a closer like Chapman who's a stud regardless and will be treated like one may accept that type of role. I full expect the Cubs or Yankees to sign him, but I would be happy as hell if the Sox did. Smith-Chapman- Kimbrell would be dynamic and compliment the solid rotation they have. I'd rather give Chapman 4/60 than Edwin 4 or 5 at 20+ per season. Unfortunately the industry experts who have been speculating on what Chapman will get this offseason are saying 5/100+. 4/60 would be fine, but someone is going to pay quite a bit more.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2016 12:04:16 GMT -5
Why can't they do both? This is Boston after all? You want two DH's? Well hopefully EE is more of a DH and Hanley spends more time at first base. I would love to have a right handed bat with pull power in Fenway park who could quite honestly, could hit 50 bombs at Fenway.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2016 12:08:43 GMT -5
I'd sign Chapman. He's a beast and he showed last night he can be used as a multi inning reliever earlier in the games during the post season. The problem is you would have to convince him to be a setup/Swiss knife reliever because Kimbrel can't do that. Now Andrew Miller may help here as he's made that role a big time thing again so a closer like Chapman who's a stud regardless and will be treated like one may accept that type of role. I full expect the Cubs or Yankees to sign him, but I would be happy as hell if the Sox did. Smith-Chapman- Kimbrell would be dynamic and compliment the solid rotation they have. I'd rather give Chapman 4/60 than Edwin 4 or 5 at 20+ per season. Unfortunately the industry experts who have been speculating on what Chapman will get this offseason are saying 5/100+. 4/60 would be fine, but someone is going to pay quite a bit more. Yeah I don't get this. Chapman is going to get at least 100 million for 6 years and probably a opt out in his contract. You're not going to be saving much of anything for Chapman say against a Edwin Encarnacion.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 31, 2016 12:18:38 GMT -5
I'd sign Chapman. He's a beast and he showed last night he can be used as a multi inning reliever earlier in the games during the post season. The problem is you would have to convince him to be a setup/Swiss knife reliever because Kimbrel can't do that. Now Andrew Miller may help here as he's made that role a big time thing again so a closer like Chapman who's a stud regardless and will be treated like one may accept that type of role. I full expect the Cubs or Yankees to sign him, but I would be happy as hell if the Sox did. Smith-Chapman- Kimbrell would be dynamic and compliment the solid rotation they have. I'd rather give Chapman 4/60 than Edwin 4 or 5 at 20+ per season. Unfortunately the industry experts who have been speculating on what Chapman will get this offseason are saying 5/100+. 4/60 would be fine, but someone is going to pay quite a bit more. We will see... I've heard these experts be waaaay off in the past.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 31, 2016 12:22:32 GMT -5
Unfortunately the industry experts who have been speculating on what Chapman will get this offseason are saying 5/100+. 4/60 would be fine, but someone is going to pay quite a bit more. Yeah I don't get this. Chapman is going to get at least 100 million for 6 years and probably a opt out in his contract. You're not going to be saving much of anything for Chapman say against a Edwin Encarnacion. How do you not get this? I think you might want to look at the biggest relief contracts ever given. 4/60 would be the richest deal ever.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 31, 2016 12:33:57 GMT -5
Yeah I don't get this. Chapman is going to get at least 100 million for 6 years and probably a opt out in his contract. You're not going to be saving much of anything for Chapman say against a Edwin Encarnacion. How do you not get this? I think you might want to look at the biggest relief contracts ever given. 4/60 would be the richest deal ever. There is no hiding how valuable guys like him are anymore. Elite relief pitcher salaries are going to skyrocket like dot.com IPOs in the late 90s now. It doesn't help that Miller's 4/60 contract looks like a huge bargain.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2016 12:44:46 GMT -5
SSSS warning ... but how good was Joe Kelly in September? I've got 240 pitchers who faced 60 or more hitters in the second half. I ranked Kelly among them in various stats, and he was impressive (29th in SIERA, etc.). But that included three mediocre to bad outings in July. So here's where his September stats would rank ... compared to Chapman in ().
SIERA: 5 (6) xFIP- 4 (2) FIP- 8 (1) ERA-: 7 (8) K-BB% 7 (5) Pull% / Oppo%: 9 / 17 (43 / 22) WPA+/G: 36 (48)
Kelly did rank 203 in Hard% and 240 in LD%, but 111 in BABIP and 128 in HR/FB (much higher in GS/FB, a stat also responsible for blowing up his leverage-adjusted WPA rate to merely very good).
It's very hard to characterize his month without including a well-known expletive. Rule 1 of relief pitching is find your own. You have to pencil him in right now for the Miller relief-ace role, and if he's 85% as good, you're golden..
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 31, 2016 12:55:32 GMT -5
Miller's contract is 4/36.. which is why I was screaming bloody murder that the Sox didn't resign him...
Plus, he was their own.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 31, 2016 13:17:23 GMT -5
SSSS warning ... but how good was Joe Kelly in September? I've got 240 pitchers who faced 60 or more hitters in the second half. I ranked Kelly among them in various stats, and he was impressive (29th in SIERA, etc.). But that included three mediocre to bad outings in July. So here's where his September stats would rank ... compared to Chapman in (). SIERA: 5 (6) xFIP- 4 (2) FIP- 8 (1) ERA-: 7 (8) K-BB% 7 (5) Pull% / Oppo%: 9 / 17 (43 / 22) WPA+/G: 36 (48) Kelly did rank 203 in Hard% and 240 in LD%, but 111 in BABIP and 128 in HR/FB (much higher in GS/FB, a stat also responsible for blowing up his leverage-adjusted WPA rate to merely very good). It's very hard to characterize his month without including a well-known expletive. Rule 1 of relief pitching is find your own. You have to pencil him in right now for the Miller relief-ace role, and if he's 85% as good, you're golden.. Wow. We keep learning, and then forgetting, that young (and veteran) players with talent struggle, evolve, and often succeed and that patience with them is a virtue. Within the Sox ranks I immediately think of Rizzo, Andrew Miller, Hanley, JBJ, ERod, Wright, Pedroia, XB, Porcello, Robbie Scott. Lester. That is not a SSSS, and baseball is indeed a funny game. Looking forward to the evolution of Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Travis Shaw, Pablo Sandoval, Yoan Moncada, Sam Travis, Trey Ball, three amazing young Catchers, and many others this season. Thanks for the SSSS update on Kelly as potential fireman.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2016 13:20:17 GMT -5
The Sox shouldn't sign Chapman to begin with.
Go sign Greg Holland on a one year deal. Go resign Koji on a cheaper one year deal.
These are smart tactical moves that would help build a stronger bullpen next year for 1/20 of the cost.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 31, 2016 13:23:35 GMT -5
I was looking through EE's stats to see if there is any reason he would/wouldn't hit well at Fenway and everything looked very neutral in his home/road splits aside from slightly high K rates on the road (guessing this is randomness) and a much higher 2B rate at home as opposed to the road:
Last 4 years home doubles: 75, 6.12% of PA Last 4 years road doubles: 46, 3.66% of PA
This past year the Rogers center had a 1.3 park factor for doubles as opposed to Fenway's 1.424. Anyone who's more familiar with the Rogers center have an idea as to how this may affect him personally in Fenway?
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Post by soxjim on Oct 31, 2016 18:34:14 GMT -5
Unfortunately the industry experts who have been speculating on what Chapman will get this offseason are saying 5/100+. 4/60 would be fine, but someone is going to pay quite a bit more. Yeah I don't get this. Chapman is going to get at least 100 million for 6 years and probably a opt out in his contract. You're not going to be saving much of anything for Chapman say against a Edwin Encarnacion. After Sox get Chapman, trade Kimbrel. All the teams have super closers. The Red Sox had one in 2013 had one in 2007. In 2004 their closer got hot. Kimbrel could -- but Chapman locks the end of the game. IMO he is more important to go after than EE. We don't need EE. Just get a cheap infield rh bat and have them platoon with the several lefties we have.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2016 21:15:05 GMT -5
Yeah I don't get this. Chapman is going to get at least 100 million for 6 years and probably a opt out in his contract. You're not going to be saving much of anything for Chapman say against a Edwin Encarnacion. After Sox get Chapman, trade Kimbrel. All the teams have super closers. The Red Sox had one in 2013 had one in 2007. In 2004 their closer got hot. Kimbrel could -- but Chapman locks the end of the game. IMO he is more important to go after than EE. We don't need EE. Just get a cheap infield rh bat and have them platoon with the several lefties we have. I just don't see the Sox giving up on Kimbrel at this point. I just don't. I don't see how this is even a realistic scenario. The Sox just traded for this guy.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 31, 2016 21:52:53 GMT -5
I don't give up on Kimbrel, but I would still sign Chapman over EE any day of the week. Chapman is younger and has no draft pick attached to him. Do we truly need him? Nope, but if DD is going to spend, which I think he will get Chapman, not EE. I don't want to give massive money and a long term contract to a slugger that will be 34 on opening day.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2016 22:38:14 GMT -5
The Sox shouldn't sign Chapman to begin with. Go sign Greg Holland on a one year deal. Go resign Koji on a cheaper one year deal. These are smart tactical moves that would help build a stronger bullpen next year for 1/20 of the cost. Holland has pitched more than an inning just once in his last three seasons. If you have Kimbrel and Uehara as one-inning RHR, you certainly don't need a third. And once Carson Smith comes back, he probably takes a roster spot from someone capable of going longer (without worrying about injury), as well. You also have Kimbrel, Uehara, Kelly, Smith once healthy, Barnes, and Hembree from the right side, and really just Ross from the left. You want a LHR, and ideally, one capable of going a couple of innings, like Ross. If you want to try Kelly as a relief ace (and you should), the investment in a third or fourth closer-quality RHR is just not going to pay off. You can get hugely more bang for bucks by identifying the next Ross.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2016 23:50:04 GMT -5
The Sox shouldn't sign Chapman to begin with. Go sign Greg Holland on a one year deal. Go resign Koji on a cheaper one year deal. These are smart tactical moves that would help build a stronger bullpen next year for 1/20 of the cost. Holland has pitched more than an inning just once in his last three seasons. If you have Kimbrel and Uehara as one-inning RHR, you certainly don't need a third. And once Carson Smith comes back, he probably takes a roster spot from someone capable of going longer (without worrying about injury), as well. You also have Kimbrel, Uehara, Kelly, Smith once healthy, Barnes, and Hembree from the right side, and really just Ross from the left. You want a LHR, and ideally, one capable of going a couple of innings, like Ross. If you want to try Kelly as a relief ace (and you should), the investment in a third or fourth closer-quality RHR is just not going to pay off. You can get hugely more bang for bucks by identifying the next Ross. I was thinking that maybe you get one of these guys. Even just one of Koji or Holland would give the bullpen length and give the bullpen roles for each guy. Once Koji came back in September this past season,the Sox bullpen was lockdown from that point on. Ohh and I look forward to seeing the best reliever come back in Carson Smith next year. He's a groundball and strikeout pitch machine. I truly think the Sox would of been the number one seed if Smith was healthy in even August of last year (when the Sox were blowing so many 8th inning leads), never mind the whole season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2016 23:56:20 GMT -5
I don't give up on Kimbrel, but I would still sign Chapman over EE any day of the week. Chapman is younger and has no draft pick attached to him. Do we truly need him? Nope, but if DD is going to spend, which I think he will get Chapman, not EE. I don't want to give massive money and a long term contract to a slugger that will be 34 on opening day. I think you could be disappointed then. There's no signs that the Sox will be in on closers this free agency period (I'm only speculating that the Sox will even be in on Greg Holland, a bounce back closer) and every speculative report has Edwin in a Sox uniform next year. Maybe I'm wrong, I don't see even a offer to Chapman from the Sox at all this off-season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 1, 2016 0:54:25 GMT -5
I don't give up on Kimbrel, but I would still sign Chapman over EE any day of the week. Chapman is younger and has no draft pick attached to him. Do we truly need him? Nope, but if DD is going to spend, which I think he will get Chapman, not EE. I don't want to give massive money and a long term contract to a slugger that will be 34 on opening day. I think you could be disappointed then. There's no signs that the Sox will be in on closers this free agency period (I'm only speculating that the Sox will even be in on Greg Holland, a bounce back closer) and every speculative report has Edwin in a Sox uniform next year. Maybe I'm wrong, I don't see even a offer to Chapman from the Sox at all this off-season. Chances are low that Sox would spend something like 30 million a year on two closers. I just think that would be smarter than giving something like 5 years 125-150 million on EE starting on his age 34 season. DD is old school, but that is most likely going to be a bad contract. For me if I'm paying aging sluggers I prefer guys that are better overall hitters, guys with higher averages.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 1, 2016 2:49:27 GMT -5
I think you could be disappointed then. There's no signs that the Sox will be in on closers this free agency period (I'm only speculating that the Sox will even be in on Greg Holland, a bounce back closer) and every speculative report has Edwin in a Sox uniform next year. Maybe I'm wrong, I don't see even a offer to Chapman from the Sox at all this off-season. Chances are low that Sox would spend something like 30 million a year on two closers. I just think that would be smarter than giving something like 5 years 125-150 million on EE starting on his age 34 season. DD is old school, but that is most likely going to be a bad contract. For me if I'm paying aging sluggers I prefer guys that are better overall hitters, guys with higher averages. I'd be shocked if EE gets 125-150 million. There's not a lot of teams that can afford to throw money at a future DH. So basically, every NL team is eliminated from the EE sweepstakes. I think EE ends up right around 5 years and 105 million. I don't see much competition driving his price past that. Every team is going to be after Chapman. Not a lot of teams will be after EE. Outside of Boston, New York, Toronto, and maybe Texas, I can't think of a team that'll be serious in the EE sweepstakes. Because of this, I can see EE getting even less than what he's asking for on the market. The only turd in the punch bowl that could be a major deterrent in getting EE is the Yankees but even they could pass at a chance at getting him because they're focused on getting "younger." I see the Yankees going all out for Chapman at ridiculous money that people here won't comprehend because of the age and everything you mentioned. They need a closer because Betances wasn't so great in that role last year. In conclusion, the Sox might be bidding against themselves when it comes to EE and that's a great position to be in for a buyer. Sure you have to pay top dollar but maybe the Sox can get him at 4 years instead of 5 or get him at 90 million instead of the 120 he's asking for.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 1, 2016 7:20:32 GMT -5
EE can play first-base and there's not much reason he couldn't do that in the NL. That being said, I think he's signed by and AL team. Doesn't matter if there are a lot of teams in or not. He's going to get paid; these aren't public negotiations after-all.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 1, 2016 8:11:13 GMT -5
After Sox get Chapman, trade Kimbrel. All the teams have super closers. The Red Sox had one in 2013 had one in 2007. In 2004 their closer got hot. Kimbrel could -- but Chapman locks the end of the game. IMO he is more important to go after than EE. We don't need EE. Just get a cheap infield rh bat and have them platoon with the several lefties we have. I just don't see the Sox giving up on Kimbrel at this point. I just don't. I don't see how this is even a realistic scenario. The Sox just traded for this guy. Do you think signing Chapman and trading Kimbrel makes the Red Sox better, especially in the postseason? If so, do you think you'd be able to move Kimbrel and get something at least "decent" for him? ?
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 1, 2016 8:16:26 GMT -5
If you sign Chapman, I see no reason to move Kimbrel. So basically, I see no reason to move him period. Just sign Chapman, even if it gets the 4/72 range. He's a left handed dominant arm that can go multiple innings in the post season. Put him in the pen with Kimbrel and Smith and Kelly and the rest and I love what this team has going. He's the single most impactful player I think they could sign this offseason that correlates to winning a WS.
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