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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jun 19, 2017 19:16:43 GMT -5
Fun to revisit this thread after having the benefit of observing over 40% of the 2017 season. I was not crazy about DD's trade for Sale, but he's looking pretty sage right now. Moncada is struggling in AAA, Kopech is a K machine in AA, but his control still needs major improvement. And that Sale guy seems like he might be ok, after all. Who among us would have thought that DD's worst trade of the offseason, by far, was Shaw + for Thornburg? Can you imagine a Red Sox corner infield of Shaw and Moreland, each with an OPS in the high .800's, for a total cost of under $7M? Think about this lineup: Boegarts (.808 OPS) Moreland (.863 OPS) Betts (.867 OPS) Shaw (.901 OPS) Ramirez (.750 OPS) Bradley (.812 OPS) Pedroia (.750 OPS) Benintendi (.768 OPS) Leon/Vazquez (.704 OPS) If we never signed Pablo to that insane contract we would of kept TS. Unfortunately we did so we had to trade Shaw and we did get a lot for him. Our bullpen right now is lights out and that's with Carson and Tyler hurt. Probably our best 2 set up men. So the future looks bright. With how many great young players we already have in the majors we needed to get Sale. He's the best pitcher in the AL right now and we gave up 0 proven players. Kopech is the next Daniel Bard. He will turn into a reliever if lucky because of his control issues. Even if Moncada is above average he still isn't as serviceable as an elite left handed pitcher. We got the best of this deal for now and I don't see that changing.
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Post by patford on Jun 19, 2017 20:44:15 GMT -5
Shaw is hot. He was absolutely awful last year, particularly towards the end of the year when he was near useless. I have never cooled on a player so fast as I cooled on Moncada. I saw the multiple flashy cars as a red flag. When he was called up it was not just the fact he was completely incapable of hitting a breaking ball, it was the really bad mental errors and lack of hustle which bothered me. I think there is a reasonable chance he will be a bust.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 19, 2017 21:00:39 GMT -5
Shaw is hot. He was absolutely awful last year, particularly towards the end of the year when he was near useless. I have never cooled on a player so fast as I cooled on Moncada. I saw the multiple flashy cars as a red flag. When he was called up it was not just the fact he was completely incapable of hitting a breaking ball, it was the really bad mental errors and lack of hustle which bothered me. I think there is a reasonable chance he will be a bust. I saw a guy trying to do too much when he came up last season. I think he has the bat to be a major league hitter, but only when he plays within his ability.
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Post by artfuldodger on Aug 6, 2017 6:41:47 GMT -5
Is anyone else starting to wonder if Moncada is going down the same path as Profar where the expectations are weighing on them to the point they do not perform as they should?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 6, 2017 6:50:13 GMT -5
Still think Moncada turns out to be a better player than Profar. He can impact the game in so many ways. At the same time his strikeout issues could keep him from ever becoming an elite player. He could still bust out after a few rough years like Bradley did. He has a ton of talent.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 6, 2017 8:15:26 GMT -5
Hate to admit it but it will make me feel better in the long run if he fails to reach the potential that has been heaped on him. I don't need to see another Bagwell. I know it is different because of how great Sale is but still it would be better to view a deal as a steal rather than an even swap. It has been my position for a while that he could be more physical athlete than natural baseball player and we already have one of those. Although Castillo has been playing better lately that is an expensive bust.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 6, 2017 8:15:56 GMT -5
Shaw is hot. He was absolutely awful last year, particularly towards the end of the year when he was near useless. I have never cooled on a player so fast as I cooled on Moncada. I saw the multiple flashy cars as a red flag. When he was called up it was not just the fact he was completely incapable of hitting a breaking ball, it was the really bad mental errors and lack of hustle which bothered me. I think there is a reasonable chance he will be a bust. I saw a guy trying to do too much when he came up last season. I think he has the bat to be a major league hitter, but only when he plays within his ability. He could not lay off or catch up to fastballs up in or just above the zone. Pitchers exploited that unmercifully. Maybe he was tired or as you say, trying to do too much. He was also less than a gazelle at third, however willing. I hope that Thornburg's career can resurrect but know that shoulder impingement surgery is no sure thing.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 6, 2017 8:34:12 GMT -5
Still think Moncada turns out to be a better player than Profar. He can impact the game in so many ways. At the same time his strikeout issues could keep him from ever becoming an elite player. He could still bust out after a few rough years like Bradley did. He has a ton of talent. Hes so young. I still think he's a future MVP. Kopech has filthy stuff. Short term Boston got the better end but over the next decade its still Chicago. If I could do the trade over again I'd hold at keeping Moncada. Its a fair deal but when Sale is getting paid by Henry 30 million a year Moncada will still be on his rookie contract taking the league by storm.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 6, 2017 9:02:14 GMT -5
Still think Moncada turns out to be a better player than Profar. He can impact the game in so many ways. At the same time his strikeout issues could keep him from ever becoming an elite player. He could still bust out after a few rough years like Bradley did. He has a ton of talent. Hes so young. I still think he's a future MVP. Kopech has filthy stuff. Short term Boston got the better end but over the next decade its still Chicago. If I could do the trade over again I'd hold at keeping Moncada. Its a fair deal but when Sale is getting paid by Henry 30 million a year Moncada will still be on his rookie contract taking the league by storm. Maybe, but the strikeout issues are very real. In the past year he has made almost no improvements in that area. Moncada has enough talent that even with the strikeouts he can be a good player. Future MVP? Very small chance at that. Sure there's a chance, but it's not likely. Everything would need to break right. His D improves and the strikeout issues just go away. Kopech has great stuff, always has. The BB issues are still there though. Still has the look of an elite closer, but you never know. This trade looks really good for us right now. Devers looks like the better player and Sale is the best pitcher in AL.
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Post by giatree12 on Aug 6, 2017 9:09:42 GMT -5
Hes so young. I still think he's a future MVP. Kopech has filthy stuff. Short term Boston got the better end but over the next decade its still Chicago. If I could do the trade over again I'd hold at keeping Moncada. Its a fair deal but when Sale is getting paid by Henry 30 million a year Moncada will still be on his rookie contract taking the league by storm. Maybe, but the strikeout issues are very real. In the past year he has made almost no improvements in that area. Moncada has enough talent that even with the strikeouts he can be a good player. Future MVP? Very small chance at that. Sure there's a chance, but it's not likely. Everything would need to break right. His D improves and the strikeout issues just go away. Kopech has great stuff, always has. The BB issues are still there though. Still has the look of an elite closer, but you never know. This trade looks really good for us right now. Devers looks like the better player and Sale is the best pitcher in AL. www.milb.com/milb/news/chicago-white-sox-prospect-michael-kopech-allows-four-hits-fans-11-in-seven-innings/c-246670220/t-18536481044:5 K/BB in his last 34 innings. He made some adjustment post all star break that is leading to better results. Personally, im excited to see how he develops and look forward to watching him in the majors.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 6, 2017 9:33:27 GMT -5
Kopech will be the far bigger loss. He will be an absolute stud in the majors
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Post by soxjim on Aug 6, 2017 11:56:01 GMT -5
Hes so young. I still think he's a future MVP. Kopech has filthy stuff. Short term Boston got the better end but over the next decade its still Chicago. If I could do the trade over again I'd hold at keeping Moncada. Its a fair deal but when Sale is getting paid by Henry 30 million a year Moncada will still be on his rookie contract taking the league by storm. Maybe, but the strikeout issues are very real. In the past year he has made almost no improvements in that area. Moncada has enough talent that even with the strikeouts he can be a good player. Future MVP? Very small chance at that. Sure there's a chance, but it's not likely. Everything would need to break right. His D improves and the strikeout issues just go away. Kopech has great stuff, always has. The BB issues are still there though. Still has the look of an elite closer, but you never know. This trade looks really good for us right now. Devers looks like the better player and Sale is the best pitcher in AL. I am not a big fan of Moncada. Not that I don't think he would be good-- but he has awful splits. Sure someday he might be can compile stats - The good teams however will be able to take advantage of his lousy right-handed hitting. The reason the sox have made out-- is that there is the belief from some organizations that Moncada will be a MVP type player. I don't see it. Without this Sale trade - and the Sox playing Moncada instead of having Sale and playing Moncada-- where would they be this year?
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 6, 2017 12:31:33 GMT -5
It's weird how quickly we all turn on Moncada.
I'll admit pre-trade I saw a poor mans' Cano with Ks and steals, now I see less.
Which is ridiculous.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2017 13:01:24 GMT -5
I still think Moncada will turn out to be a star, as long as he works at it. If he's just going to continue to stuff 100 twinkies down his throat, then you have to wonder.
I think he'll eventually lessen his Ks a bit and hit for .270 - .280 or so. I think he could become a 30-30 guy eventually. And he'll also draw his share of walks so that his OBP should exceed .350 and even be close to .400 in his best years.
He's very raw at this stage and he's in the bigs via his talent alone. I think if he works at it eventually he'll be a helluva player.
And if Kopech can shave his walks a bit, he has ace written all over him. It's a big if, but it can happen. He can get away with being a little wild. He can be a 3.5 - 4 walk/9 kind of guy and succeed. But closer to 4.5 - 5 you're probably looking at a closer/8th inning type guy.
I think the White Sox, well all is said and done, will do very well with this deal just like I think they should do pretty well with most of the deals they've made, including Giolito plus other for Eaton, Rutherford for Frazier and the relievers, Jimenez and a young hard thrower from the Cubs for Quintana, and eventually it should be interesting to see what they get for Abreu as he's the last one standing at this point. The White Sox should be an interesting team in the next few years. By the beginning of the next decade they should be in the mix to be the best of the Central, I'd think.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2017 13:05:28 GMT -5
I think Moncada has to completely change his approach, which will hurt his walk rate a lot. He's walking only by not swinging at anything until there is two strikes. He's going to have to start swinging earlier in counts.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 6, 2017 15:50:14 GMT -5
It's weird how quickly we all turn on Moncada. I'll admit pre-trade I saw a poor mans' Cano with Ks and steals, now I see less. Which is ridiculous. I don't know what "quickly" means. But I saw four factors. - One which is gone. 1-- His splits are not what I ever expected from a supposed superstar. Or a great MVP-like player or a little bit below MVP. HE can be all-star someday sure. 2-- He always seemed to get hurt. Though no more. That's gone. 3-- I heard on soxpodcast the comparison of him and Beni in which Speier mentioned thatt the scouts that thought Moncada were better gave him an edge. While the scouts that said Beni was better said it wasn;t close. 4-- When I saw him come up and just get annihilated. Then add in the fact that we are playing to win NOW. He looked liek a project last year. And still continues to look like a project. When he is going to be able to help a contender win by more than just "baserunning?"
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 6, 2017 16:24:21 GMT -5
Kopechs numbers since the all star break
5BB/44K.
That is just incredible. Kopech looking like a future ace potential
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 6, 2017 16:45:22 GMT -5
Kopechs numbers since the all star break 5BB/44K. That is just incredible. Kopech looking like a future ace potential Or he's just clicking right now - he's hot. After the first few months of last year, did you think Travis Shaw and JBJ were MVP candidates? Pretty sure he went through spells like in the Sox organization, but fell out eventually. Maybe he's turned the corner, maybe he hasn't. I still like this trade as much as any other DD trade.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 6, 2017 22:05:57 GMT -5
Kopechs numbers since the all star break 5BB/44K. That is just incredible. Kopech looking like a future ace potential Or he's just clicking right now - he's hot. After the first few months of last year, did you think Travis Shaw and JBJ were MVP candidates? Pretty sure he went through spells like in the Sox organization, but fell out eventually. Maybe he's turned the corner, maybe he hasn't. I still like this trade as much as any other DD trade. He pitched this way in the AFL last year. That was the only time with us that he ever showed good command and the difference was extraordinary. You can find details if you search for posts by me in his thread, I think. Pitchers, once they're established, do not go through immense swings in walk rate as we've seen with Kopech. The size of the effect is not explainable in terms of hot vs.cold. It is explainable in terms of a guy gradually learning to repeat his delivery. It took him half a season to rediscover whatever he figured out last fall. Now, he obviously is hot right now, but that this is how good he is when he's hot suggests that his cold is destined for 3+ BB per 9 and his average is probably better than MLB average (3.3 BB/9 this year). Which would make him a beast. The short version is that I think you'd be hard pressed to find a guy who never had average MLB control (when healthy) who went through stretches like this in the minors.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 7, 2017 0:19:27 GMT -5
Kopech had the same problem common to a lot of power arms: if a little speed is good, a lot must be better, and more better yet. He could easily give up 2-3 mph, improve his command, and maybe even get better movement. Perhaps he's working on just that. I agree, he has a good chance to be the biggest part of the trade for the White Sox.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2017 12:54:13 GMT -5
Is anyone else starting to wonder if Moncada is going down the same path as Profar where the expectations are weighing on them to the point they do not perform as they should? I'd argue against the assumption regarding Profar first. He basically missed two entire seasons due to shoulder injuries. I will admit to not being well-read on his last few years, but when you see that kind of injury scenario, I don't think you can chalk up his failure to become an elite player to expectations weighing on him. As for Moncada, he's 22 and we're talking about a 16-game sample after he raked in Triple-A, so I'm not worried or anything yet. Consider that he's like 3 months older than Chavis, who everyone's in love with because of what he's doing in Double-A after two non-productive seasons.
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 7, 2017 13:08:53 GMT -5
It's weird how quickly we all turn on Moncada. I'll admit pre-trade I saw a poor mans' Cano with Ks and steals, now I see less. Which is ridiculous. I don't know what "quickly" means. But I saw four factors. - One which is gone. 1-- His splits are not what I ever expected from a supposed superstar. Or a great MVP-like player or a little bit below MVP. HE can be all-star someday sure. 2-- He always seemed to get hurt. Though no more. That's gone. 3-- I heard on soxpodcast the comparison of him and Beni in which Speier mentioned thatt the scouts that thought Moncada were better gave him an edge. While the scouts that said Beni was better said it wasn;t close. 4-- When I saw him come up and just get annihilated. Then add in the fact that we are playing to win NOW. He looked liek a project last year. And still continues to look like a project. When he is going to be able to help a contender win by more than just "baserunning?" Obviously, the White Sox are not in a "win now" mode, and have the time to let him be 22. You're right, I suppose in many ways the Bosox weren't. Im not making a reference to the trade in any way, only how the general consensus among us posters. I could be wrong, but it feels like a year ago we thought that Moncada might struggle, but ultimately be a star. I couldn't tell you when he will be better able to help a team on the field apart from base running. Not having the stats in front of me might get me into trouble but it feels like he's excelled in AAA this year and played eight or 10 games in MLB. I could be wrong. Just spit-balling, but I'm assuming we both watch A LOT of baseball (and both probably played a lot of it too). So, knowing how easy it must be to struggle. New league, head-liner for possibly the best pitcher baseball, diff country, dozen or so leagues in 4 years, etc I still drool over talent.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 7, 2017 13:16:52 GMT -5
For me the huge difference in Moncada and Chavis is improvement. Moncada had a huge spike in SO while jumping to AA 21.1% to 30.9% Chavis went from 22.8% to 16.5%. I find it funny all the love for Moncada and still everyone being so so on Chavis. Yes it's a small sample size, 45 games to 41 games. Thing is Chavis and his approach are doing a lot better against advanced pitching when it comes to strikeouts.
You can say Moncada was raking in AAA, but with a 28.3% SO rate.
Jimed is right that Moncada needs to change his approach, like Bradley did. His high walk rate which everyone loves is a big reason his strikeouts are a major issue.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 7, 2017 13:32:44 GMT -5
Or he's just clicking right now - he's hot. After the first few months of last year, did you think Travis Shaw and JBJ were MVP candidates? Pretty sure he went through spells like in the Sox organization, but fell out eventually. Maybe he's turned the corner, maybe he hasn't. I still like this trade as much as any other DD trade. He pitched this way in the AFL last year. That was the only time with us that he ever showed good command and the difference was extraordinary. You can find details if you search for posts by me in his thread, I think. Pitchers, once they're established, do not go through immense swings in walk rate as we've seen with Kopech. The size of the effect is not explainable in terms of hot vs.cold. It is explainable in terms of a guy gradually learning to repeat his delivery. It took him half a season to rediscover whatever he figured out last fall. Now, he obviously is hot right now, but that this is how good he is when he's hot suggests that his cold is destined for 3+ BB per 9 and his average is probably better than MLB average (3.3 BB/9 this year). Which would make him a beast. The short version is that I think you'd be hard pressed to find a guy who never had average MLB control (when healthy) who went through stretches like this in the minors. What was Owens best stretch? I remember him going through 3-4 game stretches where he looked awesome. Then 3-4 game stretches were he was crazy wild.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 7, 2017 14:12:25 GMT -5
For me the huge difference in Moncada and Chavis is improvement. Moncada had a huge spike in SO while jumping to AA 21.1% to 30.9% Chavis went from 22.8% to 16.5%. I find it funny all the love for Moncada and still everyone being so so on Chavis. Yes it's a small sample size, 45 games to 41 games. Thing is Chavis and his approach are doing a lot better against advanced pitching when it comes to strikeouts. You can say Moncada was raking in AAA, but with a 28.3% SO rate. Jimed is right that Moncada needs to change his approach, like Bradley did. His high walk rate which everyone loves is a big reason his strikeouts are a major issue. Moncada could be a plus defender at any position on the field besides maybe short stop. Chavis might never have the tools to be a plus defender in the field anywhere because of his athleticism. The bats are a different story however. Moncada is a burner on the bases too, which Chavis isn't.
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