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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by telson13 on Aug 7, 2017 14:35:39 GMT -5
Hes so young. I still think he's a future MVP. Kopech has filthy stuff. Short term Boston got the better end but over the next decade its still Chicago. If I could do the trade over again I'd hold at keeping Moncada. Its a fair deal but when Sale is getting paid by Henry 30 million a year Moncada will still be on his rookie contract taking the league by storm. Maybe, but the strikeout issues are very real. In the past year he has made almost no improvements in that area. Moncada has enough talent that even with the strikeouts he can be a good player. Future MVP? Very small chance at that. Sure there's a chance, but it's not likely. Everything would need to break right. His D improves and the strikeout issues just go away. Kopech has great stuff, always has. The BB issues are still there though. Still has the look of an elite closer, but you never know. This trade looks really good for us right now. Devers looks like the better player and Sale is the best pitcher in AL. Moncada is starting to remind me of a young George Springer.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 7, 2017 15:23:18 GMT -5
For me the huge difference in Moncada and Chavis is improvement. Moncada had a huge spike in SO while jumping to AA 21.1% to 30.9% Chavis went from 22.8% to 16.5%. I find it funny all the love for Moncada and still everyone being so so on Chavis. Yes it's a small sample size, 45 games to 41 games. Thing is Chavis and his approach are doing a lot better against advanced pitching when it comes to strikeouts. You can say Moncada was raking in AAA, but with a 28.3% SO rate. Jimed is right that Moncada needs to change his approach, like Bradley did. His high walk rate which everyone loves is a big reason his strikeouts are a major issue. Moncada could be a plus defender at any position on the field besides maybe short stop. Chavis might never have the tools to be a plus defender in the field anywhere because of his athleticism. The bats are a different story however. Moncada is a burner on the bases too, which Chavis isn't. Isn't it a little silly to even be comparing Moncada and Chavis? One is at the very top of most prospect lists and the other is barely outside the top 100 of most. We can use different criteria when judging the two of them without comparing them to each other. I use completely different criteria to judge each player and when I critique or praise, it's basically either up or down from their consensus ranking. I think Moncada is quite overrated and is a very risky prospect with a higher possibility of busting which is unusual for prospects rated as highly as he is. Moncada still has a way higher probability of being a good major league player than Chavis, but that's one of the factors of why he's rated much higher. Or to put it even simpler terms, I'm concerned with Moncada and hopeful for Chavis.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 7, 2017 17:18:16 GMT -5
Moncada could be a plus defender at any position on the field besides maybe short stop. Chavis might never have the tools to be a plus defender in the field anywhere because of his athleticism. The bats are a different story however. Moncada is a burner on the bases too, which Chavis isn't. Isn't it a little silly to even be comparing Moncada and Chavis? One is at the very top of most prospect lists and the other is barely outside the top 100 of most. We can use different criteria when judging the two of them without comparing them to each other. I use completely different criteria to judge each player and when I critique or praise, it's basically either up or down from their consensus ranking. I think Moncada is quite overrated and is a very risky prospect with a higher possibility of busting which is unusual for prospects rated as highly as he is. Moncada still has a way higher probability of being a good major league player than Chavis, but that's one of the factors of why he's rated much higher. Or to put it even simpler terms, I'm concerned with Moncada and hopeful for Chavis. I think it's silly yes, but Umass did it so I pointed out the reasons why people are higher on Moncada. People should be higher on Moncada, his tools almost make it impossible for him to not have a long major career. I don't know how other people use the term bust, but at the very least Moncada could be a very good utility player with all his tools on the field. Chavis on the other hand, only has a chance to be a AAAA player if the bat doesn't play in the majors. The floor for Moncada is higher than Chavis and there's no doubt about that.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 7, 2017 18:17:16 GMT -5
I agree very hard to compare chavis and moncada. Two totally different players. Chavis certainly does not have the same skill set as Moncada. Chavis has a lot more power than Moncada. From their body of work so far, neither appears to be a great defensive player with a definite position to play. Chavis K rate is much better than Moncada's at AA. which is impressive. I agree with Pedro, the floor for Moncada is much higher. Right now Moncada has a BIG hole to fix with his high K rate. Maybe he fixes it . But so far I do not see it improving. Chavis has now had one great year at AA. Still too early to tell whether his bat will get him to fenway. Pedro sorry I have not seen where Moncada has shown that he can be a plus defender. Maybe like others it will take a couple of years for Moncada to become a super star, but right now I do not see it and have not really seen the level of hype that he has enjoyed. Not saying that he will become a bust. Just stepping back on him right now and taking a breath.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 7, 2017 19:38:25 GMT -5
Isn't it a little silly to even be comparing Moncada and Chavis? One is at the very top of most prospect lists and the other is barely outside the top 100 of most. We can use different criteria when judging the two of them without comparing them to each other. I use completely different criteria to judge each player and when I critique or praise, it's basically either up or down from their consensus ranking. I think Moncada is quite overrated and is a very risky prospect with a higher possibility of busting which is unusual for prospects rated as highly as he is. Moncada still has a way higher probability of being a good major league player than Chavis, but that's one of the factors of why he's rated much higher. Or to put it even simpler terms, I'm concerned with Moncada and hopeful for Chavis. I think it's silly yes, but Umass did it so I pointed out the reasons why people are higher on Moncada. People should be higher on Moncada, his tools almost make it impossible for him to not have a long major career. I don't know how other people use the term bust, but at the very least Monca da could be a very good utility player with all his tools on the field. Chavis on the other hand, only has a chance to be a AAAA player if the bat doesn't play in the majors. The floor for Moncada is higher than Chavis and there's no doubt about that. The book has yet to be written for each of them. There is no doubt the young Moncada and his many tools promise a bright future. On the other hand the equally young Chavis and late blooming Brentz have a great arm, great power and, at least at this time, a more proven hit tool. While they should not be compared, you are likely selling Chavis very short. I expect the young Chavis, healthy and hitting as expected, will play 3B/1B/LF by late 2018. I just watched Brentz, with his new toe tap, hit his 25th HR, against Volstad. And he did very well at the major league level this year. Their ceilings are NOT 4-A, but more likely major leaguers Hopefully adding another 'killer B' and C to the Sox as the 4th OF/1B/3B/DH in 2018, while providing financial flexibility to extend the now veteran "B's" and Sale, for whom we have Moncada to thank.
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Post by jmei on Aug 8, 2017 6:24:50 GMT -5
He pitched this way in the AFL last year. That was the only time with us that he ever showed good command and the difference was extraordinary. You can find details if you search for posts by me in his thread, I think. Pitchers, once they're established, do not go through immense swings in walk rate as we've seen with Kopech. The size of the effect is not explainable in terms of hot vs.cold. It is explainable in terms of a guy gradually learning to repeat his delivery. It took him half a season to rediscover whatever he figured out last fall. Now, he obviously is hot right now, but that this is how good he is when he's hot suggests that his cold is destined for 3+ BB per 9 and his average is probably better than MLB average (3.3 BB/9 this year). Which would make him a beast. The short version is that I think you'd be hard pressed to find a guy who never had average MLB control (when healthy) who went through stretches like this in the minors. What was Owens best stretch? I remember him going through 3-4 game stretches where he looked awesome. Then 3-4 game stretches were he was crazy wild. Kopech's hot stretch equates to a 1.3 BB/9 over 34 IP (5 GS) in AA. Henry Owens had a nine-game stretch where he had a 2.0 BB/9 in AA in 2014 (5/24 to 7/19).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2017 12:33:21 GMT -5
I wasn't comparing Moncada ceiling versus Chavis, just there swing and miss issues. A lot of people have been down on Chavis because of that and I was simple showing how he compared to Moncada. Moncada has a very serious issue with strikeouts, Chavis not so much. Chavis improved against move advanced pitching, Moncada got a lot worse.
Yet people still think Moncada is a future MVP and Chavis is still super risky. Moncada will be fine, but lets not talk about Chavis in Boston. Sure Chavis is some what risky, but with that bat it really lowers the risk. Chavis bat is arguably more impressive this year in AA than Moncada was last year. Moncada got called up to bigs. Right now Chavis bat will play anywhere. I don't get why the Boston talk is crazy or premature.
Moncada was this super prospect. The #1 prospect in Baseball. Chavis was a lost cause in most people minds. We debated this last year after his hot start. Only a few people believed in him. Now Moncada has basically stalled in his development due to his strikeout issue. Chavis has done things that even his greatest fans didn't expect. He has improved his k/b ratio in AA and has been getting better at D. He leads all minor leaguers in HR.
When you add it all up, we should be thrilled with Chavis more than Moncada. Not because Chavis has a higher ceiling, because he is a homegrown prospect that came almost out of no where that can fill one of the biggest needs on Red Sox. A power bat. A young cheap player, that sure looks like an above average regular in the making. Just when it looked like we didn't have any after Devers for a few years.
I understand worrying about Chavis D. Thing is per his scouting report he is a good athlete, with a strong arm. A student of the game. A guy that played SS, 3B and OF in high school. His issues at third seem to be more mental or lack of instincts, than not having the athletic ability. Injuries have really hurt his development in the field. At worst I don't see how he can't become an average 1B. I don't buy the height issues, when Sam Travis is only 1 inch taller. Look at what Travis Shaw another guy that was a student of the game did in improving his D.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2017 12:57:27 GMT -5
No matter how put it, I'd be more thrilled with having Moncada over Chavis because of the floor and ceiling of both players. Moncada exceeds in both areas.
Chavis isn't somewhat risky, he is very risky. If his bat doesn't play like you think it will, then he probably isn't a major league caliber player. Moncada is a major league player, even if the bat doesn't play because of his tools alone. His tools would make for a great utility player.
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Post by winkler on Aug 8, 2017 13:21:15 GMT -5
Long time lurker here.
Regarding Moncada - the best players of all time with a k% over 30 are Rob Deer, Russell Branyan, Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis and Drew Stubbs. He has Stubbs speed, but Drew was a good outfielder too.
Even 25% and higher whiff rates there aren't many good players - Stanton being #1, then Howard, Napoli and Dunn. No other all star types beyond them.
Whiffs are going up league wide, and Moncada's tools are better than any of the above but the odds are against him becoming an MVP type player.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 8, 2017 13:35:55 GMT -5
I'm not convinced that Moncada's floor is that great if he continues to K at 30% plus. He hasn't shown in game power that is commensurate with much of MLB increase in Ks and his fielding and arm are average. He as great speed but if he doesn't keep his OBP up over 300 and prove he can steal bases at the MLB level then that is devalued.
In a league where pitchers go 6 innings and many relievers are used the MLB bench is going to have only 3 offensive players so while Moncada has the positional flexibility, he lacks the bat so far at this level to play even as a utility guy for a contender. Yes his non bat talent outshines Chavis (arm excepted) but with only 3 bench guys (one of whom is a catcher) I don't think that Moncada's tools get him far without some real improvement at the plate.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2017 13:43:06 GMT -5
We don't have Moncada though, he's gone. He's not coming back. This isn't Moncada vs. Chavis. Let's root for and support the guy we have. Chavis is no where near as risky as you think. His performance in AA has lowered his risk a ton. Maybe not in your eyes, but it has for people in Baseball. That's why he made Callis mid season top 105 and Baseball America's mid season top 100. By next year he will be in everyones top 100 rankings. I think he will even jump way up a couple of lists. His bat is that good. He leads the minors in HRs.
With his power, he doesn't need to be a .270 to .280 hitter in majors like a Sam Travis. So I have no worries about his bat. The biggest worry was strikeouts and he has answered those questions in AA in a big way. If he pulled a Moncada and his K rate jumped in AA I would be really worried. As his value is tied to his bat, that didn't happen though.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2017 15:15:20 GMT -5
The problem with Chavis is that he might always be terrible defensively and not have a position like Kyle Schwarber and that makes his bat have to be way better than everyone else's to be a useful MLB player.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 8, 2017 15:22:07 GMT -5
Agree I think we stay on chavis and leave moncada out of this. umass thinks chavis is a major leaguer already just waiting for the sox to call him up. Several people on this site feel that he is not ready yet and that maybe he never makes it. One year could be a career year. Maybe he has a hard time staying healthy. In the beginning of the year I was way down on chavis. Now , I have a much higher ceiling on him. He appears to have some potential to make the bigs. But I do not have the same love for him that umass has. Which is what makes the world go round. His opinion versus mine. Will be glad next year at this time to change my opinion if he makes the sox.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2017 16:07:31 GMT -5
While I think Chavis could do alright if called up. I would give him more time and wait till next year. The thing is with his bat and numbers at his age in AA, it isn't crazy to think about him joining Boston in the near future.
Kyle Schwarber biggest problem right now is that he isn't hitting. Also the Red Sox have an open 1B and DH, while the Cubs don't. Nevermind you're comparing a 6' 235 pound guy, a former catcher to a 5'11" 190 pound player that sure seems a lot more athletic. Chavis with his plus arm can more than likely be a much better OF than Schwarber. That would not be a hard thing to do.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2017 16:18:55 GMT -5
While I think Chavis could do alright if called up. I would give him more time and wait till next year. The thing is with his bat and numbers at his age in AA, it isn't crazy to think about him joining Boston in the near future. Kyle Schwarber biggest problem right now is that he isn't hitting. Also the Red Sox have an open 1B and DH, while the Cubs don't. Nevermind you're comparing a 6' 235 pound guy, a former catcher to a 5'11" 190 pound player that sure seems a lot more athletic. Chavis with his plus arm can more than likely be a much better OF than Schwarber. That would not be a hard thing to do. I'm comparing Chavis to a guy who has no position because Chavis hasn't shown the ability to play any position close to adequately yet. I won't assume that he can play anything well until he does it. It's a lot of pressure on a bat. Hanley is a replacement level player this year and will probably have close to 30 HR. I expect a good prospect to be more than replacement level and you can't even assume that Chavis can hit like Hanley has this year. There is a reason there is no such thing as DH prospects and almost no 1B prospects ever crack the top 100.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2017 16:52:50 GMT -5
When you talk about prospects it all about projecting what they will become. So to take a hardline stance on Chavis and his D is funny. We know he is a good athlete with a strong arm. He isn't Schwarber. His scouting report says he has the tools to be average at 3B. He has made big improvements as he has got healthy at third this year. There was a tweet showing how his errors are going way down. So I have never understood the amount of negativity about Chavis and his D. Injuries have really hurt his development there. Broken fingers and bad shoulder really hurt infielders D.
You never once said Espinoza isn't going to be an elite pitcher because he had yet to dominate the minors. Or Devers won't develop power because he has yet to show it. Yet with Chavis it's I won't believe it till it happens. You can't have it both ways.
Say what you want about top 100 lists, Chavis and his D has already started to make them.
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Post by jmei on Aug 8, 2017 16:58:19 GMT -5
Just a reminder, this is the Sale trade thread, we have a separate Chavis thread and Chavis-centered discussion should go there.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 8, 2017 20:20:00 GMT -5
While I think Chavis could do alright if called up. I would give him more time and wait till next year. The thing is with his bat and numbers at his age in AA, it isn't crazy to think about him joining Boston in the near future. Kyle Schwarber biggest problem right now is that he isn't hitting. Also the Red Sox have an open 1B and DH, while the Cubs don't. Nevermind you're comparing a 6' 235 pound guy, a former catcher to a 5'11" 190 pound player that sure seems a lot more athletic. Chavis with his plus arm can more than likely be a much better OF than Schwarber. That would not be a hard thing to do. Who's this "5'11" 190 pound player"? Chavis is 5' 10" 210.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2017 23:22:13 GMT -5
I messed up the 11", should have been 10", but this site list him at 190.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 9, 2017 6:26:16 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 9, 2017 8:32:34 GMT -5
Given their comparable rankings, which did not really diverge more this year, a more interesting question is Benintendi v. Moncada. Both were top 10 prospects, and while Benintendi has crossed the bust threshold, and established his floor as a pretty good hitter, a bit weak on D, who may improve his hitting to be a younger star, Moncada has equaled his minor league results at a higher level (AAA) but has struggled in his brief MLB time. I think raw tools wise Moncada has the advantage over Benintendi, but he has not passed the bust threshold (for example, the K rate).
If they offered Moncada for Benintendi, am I correct most here would not swap, and would keep Benintendi?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 9, 2017 15:12:11 GMT -5
Another reminder that this thread is dedicated to the Sale trade. Thanks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2017 1:48:18 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Yoan Moncada has 5.3 bWAR per 150 games for the White Sox, with +19 DRS / 150 and a 111 wRC+. Which is 134 in 125 PA since August 3, after starting out 47 in his first 46 PA .
And Chris Sale looks like he'll need to go on 6 days rest half the time to be any good in the post-season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 17, 2017 3:15:28 GMT -5
And Chris Sale looks like he'll need to go on 6 days rest half the time to be any good in the post-season. The Sox don't even sniff the playoffs without Sale this year. The rotation wouldn't of gotten you there with a injured Price and Wright. The Yankees would be 5+ games ahead and the Sox would probably be desperate and trade Kopech for Darvish at the deadline. We will see what Sale is made out of in the postseason. Maybe he is waiting to empty the tank for just that time and he's pacing himself at this point in time. His stuff isn't as crisp right now, but maybe he's doing that on purpose, just like he changes speeds throughout the course of a game on purpose.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 17, 2017 3:31:18 GMT -5
If you don't trade for Sale and you miss the playoffs, you're literraly wasting the best years of Mookie's career while you wait for Devers and Moncada to become as valuable as Mookie. Maybe that comes sooner, which would of been ideal, but you also have no rotation.
You would have Pomeranz, Porcello, Fister (most likely), Eduardo Rodriguez, and Velazquez right now.
That isn't good enough. Maybe you trade for Darvish at the deadline. You're still giving up half of what you got for Sale, for a guy with no control left and a guy in Darvish who has been bad and injured since the Dodgers traded for him.
This team gets beat in the playoffs, if they even make it there. They probably get beat in the wildcard game or get swept against Cleveland again in the ALDS (who's the one seed and would be your first round opponent).
At least with the Sale, I can at least hope he finds another gear in October and maybe you have a fighters chance. A team with Sale most likely wins you the division and you're facing Houston (a more fovarable oppenent) in the first round of the playoffs. If you don't make the Sale trade, you have no chance.
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