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2017 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 6, 2017 0:43:15 GMT -5
I wouldn't call the system reliever loaded. They have a lot of relievers in the top 40, but that's more a function of how thin the system is. Most of those guys project as lower-leverage bullpen arms, and the higher-ceiling guys are farther away from the majors. The guys in Pawtucket and Portland (Martin, Scott, Ysla, Shepherd, Jerez, etc.) might be MLB arms, but they're likely not setup men. Ysla is probably the only guy there who has that sort of upside, but yeah, he's also probably a ways from getting there, if he does. Ysla reminds me of Alan Embree. A left handed reliever with a nice power fastball that he uses almost exclusively with a show me slider from time to time. That's exactly what Embree was.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 6, 2017 8:16:50 GMT -5
I wouldn't call the system reliever loaded. They have a lot of relievers in the top 40, but that's more a function of how thin the system is. Most of those guys project as lower-leverage bullpen arms, and the higher-ceiling guys are farther away from the majors. The guys in Pawtucket and Portland (Martin, Scott, Ysla, Shepherd, Jerez, etc.) might be MLB arms, but they're likely not setup men. Ysla is probably the only guy there who has that sort of upside, but yeah, he's also probably a ways from getting there, if he does. One thing it's getting close to time to be realistic about though - the Red Sox have a guy who's probably ending up a reliever (though potentially a good one) ranked sixth. Are we sure Johnson burned an option in 2015? If the recalled him when they shut him down in August then he didn't. If he did, he's in his last option season on a team where all of the starters are signed for 2018, and he's at an age where even a good minor league season as a starter wouldn't rebuild his trade value as much as a quality season as a major league reliever.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 6, 2017 16:38:04 GMT -5
Ysla is probably the only guy there who has that sort of upside, but yeah, he's also probably a ways from getting there, if he does. Ysla reminds me of Alan Embree. A left handed reliever with a nice power fastball that he uses almost exclusively with a show me slider from time to time. That's exactly what Embree was. Good comp. I think Ysla's slider has potential though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 8, 2017 13:54:28 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 8, 2017 14:06:43 GMT -5
If you wanted Rodriguez to work like he needed to earn the job, that's what you'd say, right?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 8, 2017 16:13:06 GMT -5
I'm fairly certain that earlier in the offseason he said it looked like Rodriguez and Pomeranz in the rotation, so we can probably just wait and see.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 8, 2017 16:13:41 GMT -5
Ysla reminds me of Alan Embree. A left handed reliever with a nice power fastball that he uses almost exclusively with a show me slider from time to time. That's exactly what Embree was. Good comp. I think Ysla's slider has potential though. We have the slider as potentially above-average with refinement, so yeah, it's not a show-me slider.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 8, 2017 21:40:25 GMT -5
Good comp. I think Ysla's slider has potential though. We have the slider as potentially above-average with refinement, so yeah, it's not a show-me slider. Well Embree's slider was really good too, he just barely used it. I haven't seen Ysla pitch a lot so I don't know how well he mixes his slider in. The only reason why I used the term "show me slider" is because Embree barely used his. I hope you're right and Ysla's slider becomes a out pitch and a Andrew Miller type of slider. Here's to wishing.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 8, 2017 21:44:13 GMT -5
I'm really good with the rotation starting out like this if this is the case. I would rather take it slow with Eduardo's knee and I really think that Wright should be in the rotation with all the innings he eats. Pomeranz needs to be a starter because that's where his most value is and the Sox need to get as much value back after getting screwed over on the Espinoza deal.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 8, 2017 22:08:50 GMT -5
I'm really good with the rotation starting out like this if this is the case. I would rather take it slow with Eduardo's knee and I really think that Wright should be in the rotation with all the innings he eats. Pomeranz needs to be a starter because that's where his most value is and the Sox need to get as much value back after getting screwed over on the Espinoza deal. So far Preller has only been able to make one trade in spite of their desire to trade players for prospects. They traded Norris for the Nationals #23 prospect. a low A pitcher. Seems like he's being blackballed by most of the general managers in MLB. Prior to the ethics issue, he was a wheeler dealer.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 8, 2017 23:00:39 GMT -5
I'm really good with the rotation starting out like this if this is the case. I would rather take it slow with Eduardo's knee and I really think that Wright should be in the rotation with all the innings he eats. Pomeranz needs to be a starter because that's where his most value is and the Sox need to get as much value back after getting screwed over on the Espinoza deal. So far Preller has only been able to make one trade in spite of their desire to trade players for prospects. They traded Norris for the Nationals #23 prospect. a low A pitcher. Seems like he's being blackballed by most of the general managers in MLB. Prior to the ethics issue, he was a wheeler dealer. Gotta wonder how long he keeps that job. I really can't see any upside for the owners to continue employing him.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 8, 2017 23:17:53 GMT -5
Other than Wil Myers, who else has value? Brandon Maurer maybe, but he didn't have a great year in 2016 and seems a good bet to build some value back up for a panicky trade deadline deal. The Tyson Ross thing was strange, but this isn't like Ruben Amaro sitting on an aging core for too long.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 8, 2017 23:19:25 GMT -5
So far Preller has only been able to make one trade in spite of their desire to trade players for prospects. They traded Norris for the Nationals #23 prospect. a low A pitcher. Seems like he's being blackballed by most of the general managers in MLB. Prior to the ethics issue, he was a wheeler dealer. Gotta wonder how long he keeps that job. I really can't see any upside for the owners to continue employing him. Yup, his own doing. The Derek Norris trade was on Dec 2, 2 days before the winter meetings.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 8, 2017 23:53:09 GMT -5
If you wanted Rodriguez to work like he needed to earn the job, that's what you'd say, right? Or what you'd say if you wanted ERod to forgo the WBC without actually saying it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 9, 2017 10:20:04 GMT -5
We have the slider as potentially above-average with refinement, so yeah, it's not a show-me slider. Well Embree's slider was really good too, he just barely used it. I haven't seen Ysla pitch a lot so I don't know how well he mixes his slider in. The only reason why I used the term "show me slider" is because Embree barely used his. I hope you're right and Ysla's slider becomes a out pitch and a Andrew Miller type of slider. Here's to wishing. OK, gotcha. FYI, a "show me" pitch is a term that's generally used to describe a pitch that's below average that a pitcher uses just to mix things up.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 12, 2017 4:34:24 GMT -5
"President Dave Dombrowski recently told Buster Olney that Drew Pomeranz and Wright are penciled in to the last two spots in the rotation. That doesn’t mean there won’t be competition, however, because Farrell wants that culture to continue. E-Rod remains in the mix." fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/01/11/red-sox-manager-john-farrell-on-hot-stove-show-no-timetable-on-eduardo-rodriguez/ (Also linked elsewhere) ADD: ERod is having Visa issues and hasn't come to Boston for an exam. Negative MRI in VZ and he's doing light workouts. Also of note, a note that says Wright is throwing from 90 feet. That doesn't sound like what would be reported if he was ready for the playoffs as speculated. Carson Smith is also throwing from the flats.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 12, 2017 4:54:53 GMT -5
"President Dave Dombrowski recently told Buster Olney that Drew Pomeranz and Wright are penciled in to the last two spots in the rotation. That doesn’t mean there won’t be competition, however, because Farrell wants that culture to continue. E-Rod remains in the mix." fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/01/11/red-sox-manager-john-farrell-on-hot-stove-show-no-timetable-on-eduardo-rodriguez/ (Also linked elsewhere) ADD: ERod is having Visa issues and hasn't come to Boston for an exam. Negative MRI in VZ and he's doing light workouts. Also of note, a note that says Wright is throwing from 90 feet. That doesn't sound like what would be reported if he was ready for the playoffs as speculated. Carson Smith is also throwing from the flats. I knew this knee issue was ominous and continues to be. Geeze, just option Eduardo Rodriguez down to AAA and take it easy with him. I'd rather risk a guy like Wright getting hurt who sounds like he isn't progressing at a fast rate either. Forget getting through spring training healthy, can they make it to spring training healthy at least? I don't sound too positive with these comments but the more that keeps being reported the more cringy things are getting. Good thing for the innings eaters at the front of the rotation I guess. Good news on Smith though. Maybe he's ahead of schedule. I still expect him to be put on the 60 day DL to start the year however with a return in June at the earliest and most likely July around after the all-star break.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 13, 2017 9:38:11 GMT -5
If they can get an extra year of service time from Kelly and stretch him out for emergency purposes then I'd send him to AAA too for the first month of the season. I value relief pitching more than almost anyone on this board but I'd sacrifice a month if Kelly this year to get an extra season from him in two years.
I think Kelly will dominate out of the pen and I also think a dominate set up guy giving your team 60 shutdown innings is more valuable to a teams chances of winning a WS than an 4/5 starter like Wade Miley was. Some things can't be captured in numbers because there are too many variables at play to measure them and then when you start bringing them all together the sample sizes get too small and data unreliable.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 17, 2017 8:53:53 GMT -5
Thanks for the info. As puzzling as it is, I'm not questioning the source just the decision. Regarding Brentz I need to be more clear. The website here shows the 25 man roster with 27 players, with 1 being C. Smith on the DL (that's doesn't need an explanation and the other is Brentz. Either he shouldn't be listed at all as the 26th man on a 25 man roster or he should be listed along with another player to show who he is battling with for the last spot, otherwise it makes no sense. Is that clear or am I missing something? 1) Re: Kelly... I don't disagree. 2) On Brentz, first of all, you'll note that the blue italics in which he's listed mean "on the bubble for a roster spot." There are more players in the system than roster spots, so if we're going to include everyone, we need to use that denotation for guys who don't have a clear spot on a roster. Put it this way: you can often read "on the bubble for a roster spot" as "doesn't have a roster spot if everyone is still in the org. and healthy, so take with that what you will." We don't have room to have eight different ways to describe guys on the page, so blue italics is a way to denote, "look, there's not really a spot for this guy." Also, the following is less in response to you and more just something that's worth mentioning out loud every now and then when it comes up naturally, regarding our projections and how we cover the system: because most of what we do is minor-league based, we have steered away from actively projecting guys to get cut. Most of the players in the system are never going to be major leaguers, but they're working their butts off trying to get to the show. Players read this website. Their families and friends read this website. And the family of a guy like, say, Reed Gragnani when he was still around doesn't need to come to this site and read us projecting that he's about to lose his job. Because that's what it is for a lot of these guys. Now, with a guy that's like Brentz, on the bubble for the majors and having other options if he doesn't make the roster, maybe it's not that big a deal. But for a guy who's fighting for a spot in Portland or Salem or Greenville, it's a much different animal. We try to respect that. I don't take joy in being right that a guy's about to lose his job, y'know? And that's why we cut off discussion of that here - there used to be two very popular threads in our forums a while back, the Promotion Watch and the Cut Watch. We ended the latter for this reason as well. Our posters have been great about this as well, which has been awesome. But like I said, since it flowed naturally from the discussion, thought I'd throw this back out there. Chris, thanks for the explanation. You mention something that I hadn't even considered, good to know.
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Post by dmaineah on Jan 17, 2017 12:05:31 GMT -5
Unless there is an injury to someone I think;
E. Rod starts the season in AAA, Wright is the #4 & Pomeranz is the #5. Kelly opens the season in the Bullpen.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,770
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Post by mobaz on Jan 18, 2017 12:54:21 GMT -5
I'd really like to keep Kelly in the bullpen. Think a consistent role will help him at this point, with a ceiling of elite reliever more valuable for him and the team than an up-and-down swingman
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 18, 2017 13:48:20 GMT -5
For me, it's worth a few months experiment to see how Kelly's new slider plays up as a starter. This is especially true considering the extra year of control bonus, that pretty much cemented it for me.
We have essentially the same service time situation with CVaz but unfortunately he is out of options and the catching situation last year prevented the Sox from being able to do anything about it.
ADD: I'm also of the opinion that there's absolutely nothing to be gained by having ERod at Pawtucket.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 18, 2017 23:08:51 GMT -5
I'm really good with the rotation starting out like this if this is the case. I would rather take it slow with Eduardo's knee and I really think that Wright should be in the rotation with all the innings he eats. Pomeranz needs to be a starter because that's where his most value is and the Sox need to get as much value back after getting screwed over on the Espinoza deal. So Pomeranz will be made a starter out of spite? This absurd, to put it nicely, kind of thinking needs to be wiped from your thoughts. It's this kind of back handed way of thinking for those that don't get it to attempt to understand in their own narrow little way why it is the way it is without questioning of course their own views and logic. Step back and broaden your horizons and accept the Sox may be right and you may be wrong.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 19, 2017 0:32:33 GMT -5
I'm really good with the rotation starting out like this if this is the case. I would rather take it slow with Eduardo's knee and I really think that Wright should be in the rotation with all the innings he eats. Pomeranz needs to be a starter because that's where his most value is and the Sox need to get as much value back after getting screwed over on the Espinoza deal. So Pomeranz will be made a starter out of spite? This absurd, to put it nicely, kind of thinking needs to be wiped from your thoughts. It's this kind of back handed way of thinking for those that don't get it to attempt to understand in their own narrow little way why it is the way it is without questioning of course their own views and logic. Step back and broaden your horizons and accept the Sox may be right and you may be wrong. So basically the Red Sox know more than we do so why bother questioning their decisions or any of their motives for their decision making? Got you. Why bother having a chat board? It's quite possible that Pomeranz is what the Red Sox think he is and that the skeptics are wrong. That would be fantastic. But I don't think it's a leap of logic to think that if Pomeranz struggles he'd get more rope as a starter than Wright or even E-Rod would. After all they valued him that highly they gave up one of the top pitching prospects in the game. It's fine to disagree with his point of view, but I don't think his thinking needs to be wiped from his thoughts. It's not totally unreasonable to think that Pomeranz, given what they gave up to give him, will get first crack at the rotation over E-Rod and Wright and will get more of a shot to correct himself if he struggles. I don't think anybody is saying the Red Sox are going to let him be awful and keep him there out of spite if they clearly have better options.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 19, 2017 2:54:07 GMT -5
So Pomeranz will be made a starter out of spite? This absurd, to put it nicely, kind of thinking needs to be wiped from your thoughts. It's this kind of back handed way of thinking for those that don't get it to attempt to understand in their own narrow little way why it is the way it is without questioning of course their own views and logic. Step back and broaden your horizons and accept the Sox may be right and you may be wrong. So basically the Red Sox know more than we do so why bother questioning their decisions or any of their motives for their decision making? Got you. Why bother having a chat board? It's quite possible that Pomeranz is what the Red Sox think he is and that the skeptics are wrong. That would be fantastic. But I don't think it's a leap of logic to think that if Pomeranz struggles he'd get more rope as a starter than Wright or even E-Rod would. After all they valued him that highly they gave up one of the top pitching prospects in the game. It's fine to disagree with his point of view, but I don't think his thinking needs to be wiped from his thoughts. It's not totally unreasonable to think that Pomeranz, given what they gave up to give him, will get first crack at the rotation over E-Rod and Wright and will get more of a shot to correct himself if he struggles. I don't think anybody is saying the Red Sox are going to let him be awful and keep him there out of spite if they clearly have better options. For some reason demeaning the talent of Drew Pomeranz has become, for some, in vogue. I suggest that those opinions are based on giving up Neo and getting back an injured Poms. What is overlooked was his stellar performance prior to trade, which created the trade in the first place. After Ross, he was the Ace of the Padres. It was not a fluke. Despite his injury and innings fatigue, he had some great moments for the Sox. We are lucky to have him for a WS run. BTW, both E-Rod and Wright are also coming off injury. The 4 and 5 starters will largely be determined by post-injury performance in ST competition. As Eck would say, that's a beautiful thing.
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