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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 27, 2017 11:47:23 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and assume that not even Dave Stewart was basing his trades off of Fangraphs or Baseball Reference. This isn't fantasy baseball. Right, he was looking at batting average, dingers, rbi's, wins and ERA and favoring players with the intestinal fortitude to will his team to win. You are under-evaluating Stewart. I'm pretty sure he considered saves. He wouldn't have just ignored them. It should also be noted that LaRussa is also partially to blame. There's too much wrong there to blame it on just one person.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 27, 2017 13:29:08 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and assume that not even Dave Stewart was basing his trades off of Fangraphs or Baseball Reference. This isn't fantasy baseball. Maybe he should have, he might still have a job. It could have stopped him from making what looks like one of the worst trades in history. I know it's way to early to completely judge that trade, but it looked horrible the minute it was made. It looks a lot worse now.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 27, 2017 14:43:02 GMT -5
My job was finance and accounting. So naturally I am a numbers type guy. When I retired I was controller for a $250 mil business group. The Harvard MBA provided a huge amount of great info and guidance, but you still have to run things with a certain amount of feel and understanding of what and who your business is to make it successful. Theo has that feel and I do not think Ben does. Ben would never have made the chapman trade. Theo , although he had the numbers of what he gave up was very high, had the feeling that this was the time to win the series. Dave uses less numbers than theo and more feel. If everything was strictly by the numbers, WAR, then Oakland would have won a lot more than they have. Some GM's have a feel, along with the numbers, to more times than not project out and see things that are not always in the numbers. Dave , Cashman, cashen, and the gm at the cards come to mind. Theo is very good at this as well. Baseball is a fun sport. If you are a feel type of person do not take the numbers guys as serious. It is two different ways of looking at a great game. If a GM in this day and age doesn't use mostly numbers when making trades and signing contracts, he's going to have his ass handed to him by the rest of the league. This is a 20 year old argument on baseball message boards. No need to continue. It has all been said a million times. I mostly agree with you, but there is always going to be an element of the contrarian choice that factor in these decisions. After all, humans are not algorithms. Even if just for ego, we all make decisions that backfire, because we all want to feel smarter than the next guy, from time to time. I will say also, that advanced metrics has benefitted player valuations more than anything. Someone is going to have to do some real convincing to me that is has helped the player perform better. IOW, it has streamlined the decision making to MBA types, and away from baseball lifers. Maybe that is good, maybe it isn't.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 27, 2017 17:31:36 GMT -5
WAR is the only tool that covers offense, defense and baserunning so it's the only tool to compare players. It's not going away. They will use Statcast to improve WAR. I imagine that every team has their own formulas for WAR. WAR may never go away but this new stat cast system will have its own way of grading offense, baserunning, abd defense. It will do it in a easier way to comprehend on scale of 1-100. The new system might make WAR better but it will have nothing to do with stat cast. I firmly believe this new stat cast information will make WAR obsolete. I personally can't wait first this to happen. I don't blame you for defending WAR because it's the it's the best information the fans have to judge a players value at this present time, I just don't think it's a very good system in general.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 27, 2017 17:56:23 GMT -5
WAR is the only tool that covers offense, defense and baserunning so it's the only tool to compare players. It's not going away. They will use Statcast to improve WAR. I imagine that every team has their own formulas for WAR. WAR may never go away but this new stat cast system will have its own way of grading offense, baserunning, and defense. It will do it in a easier way to comprehend on scale of 1-100. The new system might make WAR better but it will have nothing to do with stat cast. I firmly believe this new stat cast information will make WAR obsolete. I personally can't wait first this to happen. I don't blame you for defending WAR because it's the it's the best information the fans have to judge a players value at this present time, I just don't think it's a very good system in general. I think you're 2/3 right. In a game that has as large an individual yearly offensive sample (that's an earful) as baseball, with upwards of 700 PAs, the best estimators for that offensive production will remain statistical. When you take into account the vagaries of batting average on balls in play, that becomes even clearer. That's not to say there won't be some very eye-opening metrics such as exit velocity - but you've got to hit the ball first and that's where the stats come in: how often, for how many bases, how discerning is the batter, how much luck was involved,... - to go along with that exit stuff. All of that leads to a pseudo-economic estimator such as wins above replacement. Defense is a whole other ballgame - literally. I think statcast will do just what you say, but it won't necessarily be WAR it will be eliminating. The measures for defense have always been suspect. I think that will all change, and that's a big deal. Stealing bases falls in the middle, for me. There's stuff that goes along with stealing bases - like the slide, the hand movements, and so on, that might be hard for video to capture yet they're really part of base stealing. Anyway, it's going to be a lot more revealing about the individual's skillset, no doubt about that.
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Post by ryan24 on Mar 27, 2017 18:03:50 GMT -5
My job was finance and accounting. So naturally I am a numbers type guy. When I retired I was controller for a $250 mil business group. The Harvard MBA provided a huge amount of great info and guidance, but you still have to run things with a certain amount of feel and understanding of what and who your business is to make it successful. Theo has that feel and I do not think Ben does. Ben would never have made the chapman trade. Theo , although he had the numbers of what he gave up was very high, had the feeling that this was the time to win the series. Dave uses less numbers than theo and more feel. If everything was strictly by the numbers, WAR, then Oakland would have won a lot more than they have. Some GM's have a feel, along with the numbers, to more times than not project out and see things that are not always in the numbers. Dave , Cashman, cashen, and the gm at the cards come to mind. Theo is very good at this as well. Baseball is a fun sport. If you are a feel type of person do not take the numbers guys as serious. It is two different ways of looking at a great game. If a GM in this day and age doesn't use mostly numbers when making trades and signing contracts, he's going to have his ass handed to him by the rest of the league. This is a 20 year old argument on baseball message boards. No need to continue. It has all been said a million times. This comment has no basis. You are just trolling. There is no percent that you can use to identify a gm's decision process. The term mostly identifies nothing. Of course numbers and metrics are used.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 28, 2017 12:48:50 GMT -5
Has anyone done an analysis on how different scorers record things and the affect it has on some of these stats? Or is it not relevant?
Or do we not want it to be relevant?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2017 15:00:27 GMT -5
Has anyone done an analysis on how different scorers record things and the affect it has on some of these stats? Or is it not relevant? Or do we not want it to be relevant? What I want is there to be a new standardized stat called xBABIP, which is expected batting average on balls in play based on launch angle, exit velocity and assuming average defense and expected shifting. This stat could be used as the basis for several other stats which would ignore errors in human scoring and luck. There were a few sites that were working on something like that, but it's not widespread and they didn't have access to stat cast data at the time.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2017 18:26:09 GMT -5
I am thoroughly convinced that by the end of Dombrowski's time here, whether he goes quietly or is forced out (maybe hanged in effigy?), immediately or soon after, he will be adjudged as a sort of Buddy LeRoux character, over his head and out of his depth, which will take this team not a little time from which to recover.
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danr
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Post by danr on Mar 30, 2017 0:00:32 GMT -5
I am thoroughly convinced that by the end of Dombrowski's time here, whether he goes quietly or is forced out (maybe hanged in effigy?), immediately or soon after, he will be adjudged as a sort of Buddy LeRoux character, over his head and out of his depth, which will take this team not a little time from which to recover. This is one of the most ridiculous posts I ever have read on this site. He won in Miami. He won in Detroit and under him the Sox went from two last place finishes to the post-season and now the Sox are viewed as one of the best teams in MLB. It is not his fault that pitchers have arm problems. My only complaint with him is that he didn't reverse the Pomeranz trade.
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Post by thursty on Mar 30, 2017 0:18:23 GMT -5
Do you read your own posts?
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Post by sparkygian on Mar 30, 2017 2:01:43 GMT -5
Does DD do Sale trade if Price was dominating pitcher like DD proudly proclaimed he was when he signed him last year? Sure, there's the potential Sox jinx for FAs in first year, but DD watched him with Detroit, and then with Sox in '16. Is it kind of telling that he felt 'pant's on fire' to give up the farm to get a true no. 1, when he proudly proclaimed last year that he had got his man with Price?
Does he do Sale if Pomeranz lived up to the All-Star billing that deserved giving up what DD did to get him, and then stubbornly sticking to his guns when quiet warning signs at time of trade gradually became much louder, and finally true? Pomeranz is a question mark, imo. Not someone you give up a top-level prospect for.
Kimbrel was broadly considered to be an upper-elite closer when DD got him, so I'm not so disappointed about that outcome, as he still is a good reliever, but probably heading towards eighth-inning role. There were murmurs about his status after Braves abruptly dumped him, and his questionable season with Padres, but he was still pretty good.
Common thread with a lot of DD's trades seem to be going after questionable talent, that is therefore discounted, yet DD still seems to be more than willing to give up heavy price to achieve that talent; almost like DD is living off of his past successes, and is kind of running the country, excuse me, this team, by doing spontaneous, gut-reaction moves without spending a whole lot of time given to reading/trusting his reports given to him by others in the system with lesser names who make their livings doing that kind of valuable research for a living. Sorry for the political spin, but there does seem to be a lot of similarities with political uproar going on with how our country is being run by a 'famed dealmaker' who is in this haste for instant success, therefore validating his image, and the uproar about the way the Sox seem to be run with DD making hasty, questionable decisions, in search of rapid success, thereby reinforcing his past's successes. A big divide is growing with many feeling like in time these decisions will be shown to have been genius, while many others feel like our future is heavily being gambled in this constant search for a big, quick winner.
Seems a lot easier for someone to come into a system with deep pockets, a top five farm system, and a lot of young, blossoming talent already proven on the big-league club, that wasn't able to gel together quicker than the Cubs young nucleus did, and find that unquestionable veteran, proven-winner stud to get them over the hump, especially as the one winning vet already on the team was already proclaiming that last season would be his last from day one of last season. The haste to capitalize on Ortiz' presence last season led to an attempt to find inexpensive, complimentary diamonds to plug holes that may have turned out to be very expensive flops in the long run.
Don't get me wrong; I do feel like Pomeranz may ultimately fulfill his expectations. i totally feel like Price and Kimbrel brought a lot of stability to the young nucleus that led to a first place finish. Ultimately though, I feel that none has lived up to DD's expectations, and with the loss of the one proven winner on the team in Ortiz, led to DD's decision to go for broke to get Sale, who has zero postseason experience if my memory is correct. The cupboard is very bare now for future impact moves.
If Price rebounds into a true number one, than that will be the one decision DD made from day one that will make a lot of people much happier with some of the other, questionable decisions DD has made that are still out for verdict. I'm just hoping that Kopech, or Moncada, or even Margot, or Espinosa doesn't blossom into obvious superstar status before Price rebounds. Maybe Sale steps in and makes Price irrelevant, other than his monetary effect on resigning the young core down the road.
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Post by fan72 on Mar 30, 2017 5:14:18 GMT -5
I am thoroughly convinced that by the end of Dombrowski's time here, whether he goes quietly or is forced out (maybe hanged in effigy?), immediately or soon after, he will be adjudged as a sort of Buddy LeRoux character, over his head and out of his depth, which will take this team not a little time from which to recover. Your posts are truly unreadable. The negativity coming out of you is ridiculous. i have to ask are you really a Sox fan?
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Post by p23w on Mar 30, 2017 8:54:01 GMT -5
I believe that many posters read Dombrowski press clippings and speculative sports journalism articles. I don't. Furthermore, other then the trade for Sale (as much as I rue the loss of Kopech) I am not impressed with his moves. Sometimes people are employed based on name recognition (much in the same way people become candidates for high political office). I remain cautiously (very) optimistic both for this team and my country.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 30, 2017 13:17:06 GMT -5
Anyone that thinks DD is over his head or out of his depth just wants to complain and has no clue what they are talking about. Nothing could be farther from the truth. He was brought in to win now and that's what he is trying to do.
Everyone likes to bash DD trades and praise Theo. Just look at what Theo has given up for 1 and 1/3 seasons for two closers. If you want to win now, it means making trades that could hurt you down the road.
I certainly don't like all his trades and wouldn't have made them all, but let's see how this plays out. DD past trade history is very good.
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Post by digit on Mar 30, 2017 14:56:05 GMT -5
Dombrowski's big moves are pretty good, I think, but they've thinned out depth so much that I'd be concerned about whether he's actually prepared to handle injuries and attrition. Brock Holt is a pretty good defense against that, but I'm not sure it's the same for pitching.
And to be frank, I feel like what happened to Detroit and New York is a sign of how too many big contracts handicaps a team, and I feel like we may be headed down this road because the talent has been 'bunched' for now instead of later, so signing our young talents to extension will be that much harder. I think in lots of ways, I'd prefer the layered 'keep a team steady contenders' rather than 'push it all in to go for it now' because it feels like a much more stable approach to maintaining a winning team. I've never really been a fan of the 'win it all, stink for the next few years' approach. I'd rather be more like, say, the Spurs.
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Post by thursty on Apr 1, 2017 15:50:45 GMT -5
Evan Drellich with a snarky takedown of my man Dombrowski; Warning: content not suitable for flackeys
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 1, 2017 16:30:59 GMT -5
Evan Drellich with a snarky takedown of my man Dombrowski; Warning: content not suitable for flackeys We get it. DD ran over your dog and you have a never ending grudge against him.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 1, 2017 16:57:08 GMT -5
Evan Drellich with a snarky takedown of my man Dombrowski; Warning: content not suitable for flackeys Just wondering, did that guy ever play ball, man. Cuz if not, he isn't factoring in the will to win on these trades. We got gamers, bruh. He's just a pencil pushing wannabe.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2017 17:01:06 GMT -5
Evan Drellich with a snarky takedown of my man Dombrowski; Warning: content not suitable for flackeys We get it. DD ran over your dog and you have a never ending grudge against him. Or it's possible he's not too happy with the job Dombrowski has done. He wouldn't be the only person who feels that way. Dombrowski has made moves I agree, moves I wouldn't have made but can understand and moves I hated from the second he made it. What I find most disappointing about him was that I felt he was making the moves he made for the Tigers because he was desperately trying to win for Ilitch. It's those types of desperation moves that cause the most problems. That's why the Red Sox thought it was fine to give up the talent they did in Jeff Bagwell. They didn't care about the cost because they figured he was "surplus" and Lou Gorman was desperately trying to win it all while Mrs. Yawkey was still alive. I figured Dombrowski would take a much more balanced approach in Boston as there's no reason for the Red Sox to be under that type of pressure. They were well set up for the next decade with little reason to sell out the future for victories in the present, but that's not what he's done. So there are some that aren't too thrilled with him. Has nothing to do with holding grudges or anything else.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 1, 2017 17:15:27 GMT -5
Or it's possible he's not too happy with the job Dombrowski has done. He wouldn't be the only person who feels that way. Dombrowski has made moves I agree, moves I wouldn't have made but can understand and moves I hated from the second he made it. What I find most disappointing about him was that I felt he was making the moves he made for the Tigers because he was desperately trying to win for Ilitch. It's those types of desperation moves that cause the most problems. That's why the Red Sox thought it was fine to give up the talent they did in Jeff Bagwell. They didn't care about the cost because they figured he was "surplus" and Lou Gorman was desperately trying to win it all while Mrs. Yawkey was still alive. I figured Dombrowski would take a much more balanced approach in Boston as there's no reason for the Red Sox to be under that type of pressure. They were well set up for the next decade with little reason to sell out the future for victories in the present, but that's not what he's done. So there are some that aren't too thrilled with him. Has nothing to do with holding grudges or anything else. He has a way of running a ballclub, for sure. But, does anyone know if he wasn't given the win now mandate from the ownership? An argument could be made that his hiring in and of itself, was proof of that.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 1, 2017 17:15:54 GMT -5
What thursty says is always negative in nature. He has no idea what goes on behind the scenes. You can love the prospects, but they have much more info then we have. This site has become almost unreadable because of posters like him.
I followed this site because of the great knowledge and insight into sox prospects, would love nothing more then have as complete homegrown team as possible, but also realize that we can't keep all of them. There are very different ways to build a team, can agree or disagree on the moves, but the snarky comments are just ridiculous.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2017 17:59:29 GMT -5
Or it's possible he's not too happy with the job Dombrowski has done. He wouldn't be the only person who feels that way. Dombrowski has made moves I agree, moves I wouldn't have made but can understand and moves I hated from the second he made it. What I find most disappointing about him was that I felt he was making the moves he made for the Tigers because he was desperately trying to win for Ilitch. It's those types of desperation moves that cause the most problems. That's why the Red Sox thought it was fine to give up the talent they did in Jeff Bagwell. They didn't care about the cost because they figured he was "surplus" and Lou Gorman was desperately trying to win it all while Mrs. Yawkey was still alive. I figured Dombrowski would take a much more balanced approach in Boston as there's no reason for the Red Sox to be under that type of pressure. They were well set up for the next decade with little reason to sell out the future for victories in the present, but that's not what he's done. So there are some that aren't too thrilled with him. Has nothing to do with holding grudges or anything else. He has a way of running a ballclub, for sure. But, does anyone know if he wasn't given the win now mandate from the ownership? An argument could be made that his hiring in and of itself, was proof of that. That's a good question. John Henry and Tom Werner say they're in it for the long haul, so I'm not sure why they're favoring the next few seasons over the influx of young talent beyond then. It is quite possible he does have a win now mandate from ownership so your point is well taken if that is the case, which we don't really know the answer to, other than they hated finishing in last in 2014 and 2015, although I felt a lot of good occurred in 2015, particularly in the second half. Sometimes you need to take a step back before you can take two steps forward and I remember reading the frustation Theo had in trying to relay that message to ownership. Apparently his message was better received in Chicago.
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Post by thursty on Apr 1, 2017 18:55:31 GMT -5
O calm dishonorable, vile submission
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 1, 2017 20:18:06 GMT -5
Fangraphs currently projects the Red Sox for 91 wins. The Cubs and Dodgers are both projected for 94, and then the Indians, Red Sox, Astros, and Nationals are at 91.
If you trade away 80% of the best farm system in baseball, you should really have something more to show for it than a team projected for 91 wins.
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