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Post by fan72 on Apr 1, 2017 20:28:50 GMT -5
Fangraphs currently projects the Red Sox for 91 wins. The Cubs and Dodgers are both projected for 94, and then the Indians, Red Sox, Astros, and Nationals are at 91. If you trade away 80% of the best farm system in baseball, you should really have something more to show for it than a team projected for 91 wins. First of all they didn't sell off 80% of the farm system, second they play in a tough division that will keep their win total down
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 1, 2017 20:41:20 GMT -5
Put whatever % on it you want, but the point is he's traded an amazing list of top prospects. And it's not like no one ever managed to build an AL East team that projected for 95 wins before.
The larger point is that Dombrowski has traded away an extraordinary amount of future value for a fairly unremarkable amount of present value.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 1, 2017 20:51:48 GMT -5
The AL east is much more balanced then it ever has been, if you put the sox in the AL central there win projection would be higher. You can dislike the trades of giving up prospects, but don't portray it inaccurately.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 1, 2017 20:57:27 GMT -5
Oh yeah it'd be like 98 in the central for sure.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 1, 2017 21:01:25 GMT -5
Oh yeah it'd be like 98 in the central for sure. Probably should be their is no Minnesota, Chicago or a declining Royals team in the Al east. You can make an argument that every AL East team could finish in second in that division.
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Post by thursty on Apr 1, 2017 21:01:51 GMT -5
And just imagine if Sale leaves early from a start with a forearm strain; I mean that pretty much would consecrate Dombrowski as the modern-day Admiral Rozhestvensky.
Let's hope for the best, but it's all very tenuous right now
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Post by fan72 on Apr 1, 2017 21:03:21 GMT -5
And just imagine if Sale leaves early from a start with a forearm strain; I mean that pretty much would consecrate Dombrowski as the modern-day Admiral Rozhestvensky. Let's hope for the best, but it's all very tenuous right now Damn you are dramatic and snarky.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2017 21:27:07 GMT -5
Fangraphs currently projects the Red Sox for 91 wins. The Cubs and Dodgers are both projected for 94, and then the Indians, Red Sox, Astros, and Nationals are at 91. If you trade away 80% of the best farm system in baseball, you should really have something more to show for it than a team projected for 91 wins. First of all they didn't sell off 80% of the farm system, second they play in a tough division that will keep their win total down Moncada, Espinoza, Margot, Kopech. Leaving Benintendi (who really is a prospect on technicality only), Devers, and Groome. Dubon, the brothers Basabe, Allen, Asuaje, Diaz, and Light are also gone. Nearly all were top-20 on the team, and Dubon and X Basabe were top-10. So, 57% of the top-50 in baseball guys, depending on how you view Benintendi. And over half of their top-20. He still gave up a ton for a pretty underwhelming return, when viewed in context of where the system stood when he took over. Now they'll see how it all sorts out. Depth (or problems with it, more specifically) may be an issue.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 1, 2017 21:39:09 GMT -5
He held onto Betts, Bradley, Boegarts, Benindenti, Swihart, Vasquez, Devers, Groome, Travis, Dalbec, Hernandez, Erod, Barnes, Owens, Johnson, Hembree, etc. just looking for facts to be stated accurately. So you are so knowledgeable right now to know the returns are underwhelming and what they gave up is to much, revisit it in a couple years when more is known.
What makes me laugh is posters who think they know more then lifetime baseball people. You do not know what goes on behind the scenes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 1, 2017 22:34:40 GMT -5
And just imagine if Sale leaves early from a start with a forearm strain; I mean that pretty much would consecrate Dombrowski as the modern-day Admiral Rozhestvensky. Let's hope for the best, but it's all very tenuous right now Don't you think Michael Kopech is actually more of a risk than Sale for Tommy John surgery? Because I think he's a ticking time bomb with him trying to throw the fastest pitch recorded. Until Sale actually gets hurt, there's nothing to really see there. If he gets hurt then all bets are off however. All pitchers who get hurt are more riskier to stay healthy than pitchers who don't get hurt. Kopech has been hurt more than Sale in the past 3 years.
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Post by thursty on Apr 1, 2017 22:44:44 GMT -5
From the Drellich piece:
"A lot of guys who hit the long ball but don't do that [NB: drive in runners from 3rd with 1 out] struggled to find jobs this winter time . . . Everybody tries to simplify: ‘Well, this is the thing.' There's a lot that's involved in all those types of conversations. And you might have one of those type guys hitting sixth or seventh on your team. But generally if they're hitting third or fourth you probably don't have a real good team."
Assuming he's quoted correctly, Dombrowski claimed that the reason (Trumbo? Carter? Morales? Bautista? Moss? Napoli? Encarnacion?) struggled to find jobs (i.e. received smaller than expected contracts) is because of their "failure" in "RBI" spots? That's truly unbelievable - I mean that's Dave Stewart territory
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Post by rookie13 on Apr 1, 2017 22:53:08 GMT -5
From the Drellich piece: " A lot of guys who hit the long ball but don't do that [NB: drive in runners from 3rd with 1 out] struggled to find jobs this winter time . . . Everybody tries to simplify: ‘Well, this is the thing.' There's a lot that's involved in all those types of conversations. And you might have one of those type guys hitting sixth or seventh on your team. But generally if they're hitting third or fourth you probably don't have a real good team." Assuming he's quoted correctly, Dombrowski claimed that the reason (Trumbo? Carter? Morales? Bautista? Moss? Napoli? Encarnacion?) struggled to find jobs (i.e. received smaller than expected contracts) is because of their "failure" in "RBI" spots? That's truly unbelievable - I mean that's Dave Stewart territory I don't know if I'd interpret it that way. To me it seems like he's talking about sluggers with not much to offer other than power. When he says if they're batting third or fourth you probably don't have a good team, I feel like he means that someone more rounded should be in that spot.
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Post by thursty on Apr 1, 2017 22:53:11 GMT -5
As I wrote in a much earlier thread (IIRC related to Carson Smith), I am a fanatical believer in my utter inability (and *everyone* else's) to predict pitcher injuries (other than eventually they *all* are injured) except for a few factors that have empirically held up: age previous injury history high velocity change in arm angle *drop in velocity*
it is that last factor that worries me wrt Sale; not his funky delivery, not his pitch mix - but he dropped 2 ticks on his stuff last year - that's ominous; and I choose to ignore any rationalizations about "pitching to contact"
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 1, 2017 23:02:37 GMT -5
Sale has said in the past that he tried to incorporate his 2 seam fastball more often. He's got it up to 97 mph this spring with his fastball.
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Post by soxjim on Apr 2, 2017 0:13:48 GMT -5
I'm psyched that last year the Red Sox were a contender. I'm psyched this year we're projected to be a contender. And we'll be a contender barring major injuries through 2019.
ANd imo it will take a simple trade or two for 2020 and maybe 2021 to be contender (imo you are a contender if you are in the wild card hunt late. If you make the wildcard then you are a contender no doubt.)
The idea we get to watch our team win and be amongst the best contenders in baseball is more exciting to me than to wait for prospects that might make it big. As I read this thread - I think the narrative of some is that of a fan that just believes their homegrown talent of high value means it's worth the wait and an elite team would have naturally followed. IMO they have little regard for lousy baseball before the point of last year in which we were a last place team 3 of 4 years. In many cases unwatchable baseball. And last year's team without the moves of DD would not have been a contender. There was virtually no pitching before DD. Which is why imo it's a myth in which any poster tries to preach that we would have been a contender last year or this point on without DD making moves -- while some of our top pitching prospects over the last few years have been Henry Owens and Brian Johnson is just imo so wrong.
Further, I don't believe anyone that tried to project WAR for 2020 or project injuries of a young player other than one can say someday they will get hurt. Basically, no one knows.
I have my problems with DD that he moved too fast last year. And for this year I'm extremely concerned of our pitching depth. Speier mentioned that recently as well. We're at two extreme ends of the spectrum here with DD. I'm disgusted that our pitching depth right now imo is awful. If that becomes an issue this year in which Sox don't make the playoffs / contender or not - my narrative will change on this very thread if it's still alive. This team imo should have locked in starting pitching depth.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 2, 2017 0:28:21 GMT -5
I did some thorough Chris Sale digging from 2015 to 2016. There was a drop of velocity as much as 1-3 mph off of ALL his pitches from 2015 into 2016. What I found interesting was that Sale was indeed telling the truth about throwing more 2 seam fastballs. He threw 12.1% 2 seam fastballs in 2015 to 14.9% in 2016. What I also found interesting is that Sale also threw a lot more sliders in 2016. He threw 19.62% sliders in 2015 and 25.23% sliders in 2016. He threw half as many changeups in 2016. He went from 27.16% in 2015 to 14.7% in 2016. He however threw more fastballs in 2016 then in 2015. He threw 41.1% of fastballs in 2015 to 45% fastballs in 2016. My basic point is that Sale is learning to become a different pitcher as we speak. The drop in velocity *could* be related to a injury waiting to happen, but it also *could* be natural regression. The fact that Sale is actually throwing more sliders tells me that he was really comfortable throwing a baseball last year, or he wouldn't of been throwing that pitch *more*. Sliders are bad for a arm. Sale pitched in 20 more innings and threw 5 more complete games in 2016 over 2015. Chris Sale is learning to be *more* effective while losing some strength in his arm by means of potential injury or regression. The only 2 stats that regressed in 2016 from 2015 is the strikeouts and FIP. He had less strikeouts and had a half run worse in FIP. To me this is all a good sign because it does indeed show that Chris Sale is learning to pitch to contact. Hopefully the regression is just natural because most pitchers will drop velocity from the mid 20's as they head into their late 20's. Links to the Sale data- www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&startDate=04/01/2015&endDate=10/09/2015www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&startDate=04/01/2016&endDate=10/07/2016&s_type=2
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Post by larrycook on Apr 2, 2017 2:04:21 GMT -5
Now that dombrowski has made the big moves for price and sale and traded two thirds of the farm system away for every sore elbowed pitcher out there, I think it is time for dombroski to go the way of the dinosaur and for us to bring back cherington so he can get us a ring.
It is time for a change!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 2, 2017 5:55:46 GMT -5
Where's Hayward Sullivan when you need him?
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Post by fan72 on Apr 2, 2017 7:10:34 GMT -5
From the Drellich piece: " A lot of guys who hit the long ball but don't do that [NB: drive in runners from 3rd with 1 out] struggled to find jobs this winter time . . . Everybody tries to simplify: ‘Well, this is the thing.' There's a lot that's involved in all those types of conversations. And you might have one of those type guys hitting sixth or seventh on your team. But generally if they're hitting third or fourth you probably don't have a real good team." Assuming he's quoted correctly, Dombrowski claimed that the reason (Trumbo? Carter? Morales? Bautista? Moss? Napoli? Encarnacion?) struggled to find jobs (i.e. received smaller than expected contracts) is because of their "failure" in "RBI" spots? That's truly unbelievable - I mean that's Dave Stewart territory Again you are just plain wrong, he is saying one dimensional hitters who have two true outcomes hitting home runs or striking out were not getting paid. I know in that context it didn't fit your narrative. Very sad.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 2, 2017 7:14:21 GMT -5
Now that dombrowski has made the big moves for price and sale and traded two thirds of the farm system away for every sore elbowed pitcher out there, I think it is time for dombroski to go the way of the dinosaur and for us to bring back cherington so he can get us a ring. It is time for a change! I hope that's tongue in cheek, because if it isn't it's a just plain stupid remark.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 2, 2017 8:40:19 GMT -5
I'm very happy the season is starting and we get to see the results of the trades, etc. This board has been very depressing with so much negativity - more than any year that I can recall. The constant attacks on Dombrowski are just ridiculous. Now we get to see the results of his trades and I am of the opinion that they will be better than many think.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 2, 2017 9:53:38 GMT -5
I'm very happy the season is starting and we get to see the results of the trades, etc. This board has been very depressing with so much negativity - more than any year that I can recall. The constant attacks on Dombrowski are just ridiculous. Now we get to see the results of his trades and I am of the opinion that they will be better than many think. I agree with you wholeheartedly it's become unreadable. That's why for the last couple of days I have been responding to the most negative posters. People need to learn to enjoy the game.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 2, 2017 11:26:04 GMT -5
I'm very happy the season is starting and we get to see the results of the trades, etc. This board has been very depressing with so much negativity - more than any year that I can recall. The constant attacks on Dombrowski are just ridiculous. Now we get to see the results of his trades and I am of the opinion that they will be better than many think. Yeah when this team wins 88 games everyone is going to be really calm and reasonable about it.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 2, 2017 11:32:26 GMT -5
I'm very happy the season is starting and we get to see the results of the trades, etc. This board has been very depressing with so much negativity - more than any year that I can recall. The constant attacks on Dombrowski are just ridiculous. Now we get to see the results of his trades and I am of the opinion that they will be better than many think. Yeah when this team wins 88 games everyone is going to be really calm and reasonable about it. Enjoy the game and stop being a dope.
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Post by fan72 on Apr 2, 2017 11:34:07 GMT -5
I'm very happy the season is starting and we get to see the results of the trades, etc. This board has been very depressing with so much negativity - more than any year that I can recall. The constant attacks on Dombrowski are just ridiculous. Now we get to see the results of his trades and I am of the opinion that they will be better than many think. Yeah when this team wins 88 games everyone is going to be really calm and reasonable about it. Again brilliant commentary.
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