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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 28, 2017 3:47:09 GMT -5
I disagree on both parts. I think the Cubs would love to have a cost controlled pitcher with upside and I think they have to trade Schwarber because he has no position. The Cubs have Montgomery to fill in until Eduardo comes back. You wouldn't be selling low if you got Schwarber. So would the Red Sox and everyone else other than you, because you think he is an injury waiting to happen and thus doesn't have any upside. You can't have it both ways. Either he's valuable or he isn't. I really don't know how you can speak for the Sox organization. Not everything is black and white. Some teams may love the upside, some teams may see a injury liability. I hope Dombrowski looks at it from my side because there is a big risk with keeping Eduardo.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 28, 2017 4:04:39 GMT -5
ERod is going to be ready to pitch in majors by April. So if everything goes right he might miss almost no time. Who is Schwarber? Really though, what type of player is he? He has been up and down the last few years. He is coming off a 0 war season and has 1.1 career war. He can't play the OF, he can't play catcher and we have no clue if he will be a horrible 1B. So is he a DH? He has legit big time power,but is he a .250 hitter? That can be a useful player,but is that worth ERod? On paper ERod is the better player and should have more trade value right now. That's why a lot of people assume they won't trade him, because his value is at an all time low. Okay a couple points here and I'm sorry if I'm repeating. - Best case scenario is that he's out a month or month and half if they take it easy. Worst case scenario is that he suffers a set back and he is out until after the all star break. So yes he is going to miss some time, who knows how much with this guys knee. The Sox always mess up timetables with these kind of things. Eduardo Nunez is a great example of this. Heck, they've even brought Eduardo himself back too soon in 2016 with the first knee injury and was terrible for a while because of being rushed too soon. -I don't think Eduardo's value is at "a all-time low" right now. Absolutely not. His value isn't at the highest right now, I'll definitely agree with that. You can sell a Eduardo Rodriguez to another team at this moment while he's once again, making minimum money, has control, and is 25. That is something you can sell and trade, despite the injury history because someone will be willing to look past it and give up value for it. I just hope the Sox don't gamble on keeping it. -Schwarber is a guy that carries some risk, I agree. Which is why a deal like this seems plausible. We don't know if he would be good or bad at first base. We don't know if he'll hit .250. What we do know is that he can slug, which this team needs currently. He's a slugger. That's what I know he is. His value should go up if he starts playing a position more suited to him in first base or DH, which is what happened to Hanley when the Sox moved him out of the outifeld. -All in all the floor of Schwarber is higher than Eduardo currently and the floor could be even higher if Eduardo's knee suffers yet another set back or injury. Schwarber will be able to step in from day one and play, Eduardo won't be playing from day one from the start of the season. The ceiling might be higher for Eduardo, but I would rather not risk seeing that ceiling. Let some other team gamble future wins and take the more sure bet. I'll step away now unless someone brings up another point.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 28, 2017 10:37:46 GMT -5
Why is ERod such a big risk? You haven't even mentioned his actual injury, just what it's not. I've yet to see any report it could be a long-term issue. I have to say this seems like your way of justifying trading a young pitcher because you love Schwarber. You overlook the fact Schwarber had a major injury like it never happened.
I wasn't clear so that's my fault, but the all time low value guy is Schwarber not ERod. I agree ERod's value isn't at an all-time low. That's why a lot of people don't think Schwarber gets traded.
I don't get how you can think Schwarber has a higher floor. These guys aren't prospects, we have data on them. They were both called up in 2015 and both have the same free agent and arbitration clocks. Erod has had seasons of 2.5, .5 and 1.8 war, Schwarber has been 1.2, -.1, and 0. One has 4.8 career war, the other 1.1. Erod has the better seasons and Schwarber has the lowest ones. The floor argument doesn't hold water. You can think Schwarber will get better, but I think the same thing about ERod. I agree ERod has the higher ceiling also.
The kicker about Schwarber at DH is that Ramirez healthy might be better next year. You just don't know because Scwarber is anything put predictable at this point. Trading a young pitcher with the higher floor and ceiling for a DH doesn't sound like a great idea.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 28, 2017 11:03:01 GMT -5
You keep posting WAR numbers when Schwarber hasn't played a position he is comfortable at yet. Schwarber's horrible defense has brought his value way down at catcher and in the outfield (both positions he isn't suited for long term or short term). Again, the value for Schwarber goes up if he's playing at a position like DH or 1B. He hasn't done that in a full year yet. Once he does that, get back to me on who has the higher floor.
I'm not justifying anything. This is how I feel about both players. Eduardo is a long term risk because of his injury history and now his surgery. It's not great that a 25 power lefty is having knee surgery in his mid 20's.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 28, 2017 11:57:53 GMT -5
But it's no big deal that a 23 year old had major knee surgery? You keep talking about ERod and his knee and overlook the fact Scwarber had major surgery at age 23, ERod at age 24.
You admit that Scwarber might not be good at 1B. Chances are he is below average. He's a big dude that doesn't move well. His best year with a bat was 2015, even at DH ERod was better. Schwarber only has 2.5 career offensive war in his career. So while the D has hurt him, it's not game changing.
The fact is you have no clue what his floor at 1B is, we can guess at DH. The numbers show that ERod has the higher floor even with Schwarber at DH. Your basically arguing that Scwarber will breakout at some point. Maybe he will, maybe ERod will also breakout. That doesn't change their current floors. Nevermind the fact you are trading good young pitching for a DH. In general that's a horrible thing to do.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 28, 2017 16:00:11 GMT -5
Schwarber did have major knee surgery on a tendon, yes. We both agree that tendons can be repaired, right?
That wasn't Eduardo's injury. It sounded completely different. Plus, Schwarber has already had a full year between the minors and majors last year after the surgery.
I base the future floor directly related to health really. For pitchers it's harder to stay healthier imo, especially ones with bad knees.
I personally think Schwarber could be a good first baseman, the lack of range might be a problem because he isn't athletic. If Hanley can do it, then anyone can in my mind. The catching experience should help him in this regard.
This is all my personal opinions about both players. I think that's really all I got to say about the subject.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 28, 2017 17:32:23 GMT -5
ERod had Patellofemoral ligament reconstruction.
Schwarber had ACL reconstruction and a repair of his LCL.
Success rates for Patellofemoral reconstruction is 80 to 90%. For ACL it's 75%, never mind adding in the LCL. Now these are overall. Athletes get the best doctors, so the sucess rates are higher. So Schwarber really just proves why I'm not worried. They both had ligament reconstruction just on a different ligament. While Schwarber had work on multiple ligaments.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2017 5:20:37 GMT -5
Eduardo also has had knee subluxation issues two seperate times the past 3 years which is what I'm fair guessing is causing these tendons to tear up.
Even if Eduardo's tendon becomes fully repaired, there's still issues in Eduardo's knees beyond this surgery, which again points to him being a pretty fair risk.
If the Sox didn't even have these subluxation issues cleared up with this past surgery, then that gives you even more reason to pause about Eduardo's future health risk.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 29, 2017 12:30:22 GMT -5
By all reports it was just stretched out, which is what lead to the dislocation issues. His surgery is 100% about stoping that from ever happening again. The ligament caused the issues, not some other issue in the knee.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2017 15:17:24 GMT -5
By all reports it was just stretched out, which is what lead to the dislocation issues. His surgery is 100% about stoping that from ever happening again. Yeah we will see about that.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 29, 2017 17:06:38 GMT -5
By all reports it was just stretched out, which is what lead to the dislocation issues. His surgery is 100% about stoping that from ever happening again. The ligament caused the issues, not some other issue in the knee. Exactly. Any subluxation (joint dislocation) will stretch the surrounding tissues. In a joint largely stabilized by muscle/tendon (shoulder) the result may be fibrous scarring on muscle and tendon retraction, leading to tightness/reduced mobility. In a joint like the knee, or ankle, where ligaments are the primary stabilizing structure, the risk is joint laxity...increased mobility (in the wrong directions...instability). This is because muscle (which "becomes" tendon, especially where it meets bone...meaning tendons are the "ends" of muscle where the attach) is cellular, and ligament is not. Ligaments are basically all fibrous collagen/elastin, and there's not much there inside the tissue to repair/scar (scarring causes contraction). Rodriguez had a dislocation of his kneecap, and what they're doing is basically shortening the tissue connecting the kneecap to the thighbone. That should increase the stability of the front of the joint (specifically, keep the kneecap in place). He is unlikely to have any future issues related to his kneecap displacing. The ACL/LCL injury is a bigger issue, because it involves the joint proper where the thigh (femur) meets the (lower) leg (tibia and fibula). That can dramatically affect range of motion and especially lateral stability.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 29, 2017 17:15:36 GMT -5
Eduardo also has had knee subluxation issues two seperate times the past 3 years which is what I'm fair guessing is causing these tendons to tear up. Even if Eduardo's tendon becomes fully repaired, there's still issues in Eduardo's knees beyond this surgery, which again points to him being a pretty fair risk. If the Sox didn't even have these subluxation issues cleared up with this past surgery, then that gives you even more reason to pause about Eduardo's future health risk. The tendons aren't torn. His medial patellofemoral ligament is stretched from the original trauma, like a small sweater on a fat man. It's just not holding his kneecap in place. It's a simple fix.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 29, 2017 17:25:58 GMT -5
Btw, I'd much rather keep Rodriguez. Schwarber will probably become a good hitter, but ideal outcome is that he's an average 1b. He has no other defensive position where he would be remotely close to average, and beyond LF nowhere close to remotely passable. Rodriguez is just at the edge of his historical pitching prime (26-30), has a less serious injury issue, and has higher upside. He's a good bet for putting up 3-5 WAR over a full season, based on his partial season extrapolation, which would cost $25M+ AAV in FA for a #2-1a-1. Schwarber's best-case is Edwin Encarnación. There's just more market premium on good pitching than good-hitting terrible defenders.
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snod
Rookie
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Post by snod on Nov 3, 2017 17:03:42 GMT -5
I'm pretty high on Schwarber as a hitter and think he's a great target as a long term DH who can spell 1B and occasionally LF. I'm concerned about him translating to 1B for the same reason Hanley struggled with a transition to the outfield. Hanley had simply never played in the outfield before and just couldn't read the ball off the bat from there. He'd been an infielder his entire life and learning to read the ball off the bat from a completely different area of the field was something that he couldn't do in an off season.
For Schwarber, his entire career has been either behind the plate or in the outfield (where he doesn't get good reads or run anything resembling good routes). He may struggle to learn how to read the ball off the bat from 1B leading to frequent ugly plays. If he's a backup 1B and primary DH, okay, fine. But I would question any plan to insert him as the starting first baseman given how bad he is defensively overall.
At least Hanley looked better than awful at 1st in 2016. Whether he can stay healthy while manning the bag is another issue, but I'd rather have him out there than Schwarber if they did pull off a trade for him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 17, 2017 21:58:32 GMT -5
Rick Porcello or Eduardo Rodriguez and JBJ for Schwarber and Baez or Ian Happ.
Does this trade work?
There has to be some combination there that works.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 17, 2017 23:19:38 GMT -5
Rick Porcello or Eduardo Rodriguez and JBJ for Schwarber and Baez or Ian Happ. Does this trade work? There has to be some combination there that works. I wouldn’t trade Rodriguez unless it’s a big return; he is having a high-success rate surgery for a recurrent injury that should have no lasting issues. His arm is sound. He’s a LH with #1 stuff who’s pitched at 2/3 level when healthy. He’s been good for 2.5 WAR per 183 IP. He’s only 24, and he’ll turn 25 just before starting next season. He has three years of control left, if I’m not mistaken. That takes him smack into the middle of his prime years, historically speaking. JBJ has three years and is established as an above-average regular who’s already had an All-Star season. I’d be willing to move Porcello, but then the question becomes, who takes his place? And what happens to Baez (who I think will get even better) when Pedroia comes back? What do you do about the gaping hole in CF? And if you slide Benintendi over, does Schwarber play LF? That would kill the defense. I suppose you could do Porcello/JBJ for Schwarber/Baez or Happ and then sign Lorenzo Cain instead of JDM, then put Schwarber at DH. Maybe try signing Darvish to take Porcello’s spot, if the price were right (not a bad idea since they’ll need to fill that spot soon enough). Lots of moving parts though. And I’m not convinced the Cubs do it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 17, 2017 23:36:03 GMT -5
Rick Porcello or Eduardo Rodriguez and JBJ for Schwarber and Baez or Ian Happ. Does this trade work? There has to be some combination there that works. I wouldn’t trade Rodriguez unless it’s a big return; he is having a high-success rate surgery for a recurrent injury that should have no lasting issues. His arm is sound. He’s a LH with #1 stuff who’s pitched at 2/3 level when healthy. He’s been good for 2.5 WAR per 183 IP. He’s only 24, and he’ll turn 25 just before starting next season. He has three years of control left, if I’m not mistaken. That takes him smack into the middle of his prime years, historically speaking. JBJ has three years and is established as an above-average regular who’s already had an All-Star season. I’d be willing to move Porcello, but then the question becomes, who takes his place? And what happens to Baez (who I think will get even better) when Pedroia comes back? What do you do about the gaping hole in CF? And if you slide Benintendi over, does Schwarber play LF? That would kill the defense. I suppose you could do Porcello/JBJ for Schwarber/Baez or Happ and then sign Lorenzo Cain instead of JDM, then put Schwarber at DH. Maybe try signing Darvish to take Porcello’s spot, if the price were right (not a bad idea since they’ll need to fill that spot soon enough). Lots of moving parts though. And I’m not convinced the Cubs do it. Baez isn't a big return for Rodriguez though? You could argue that Baez could be more valuable to the Sox over the next 4 years of control both Rodriguez and Baez have left. Rodriguez has 4 years of control left. You could easily let Xander walk in free agency and then put Baez at short stop full-time. Baez would have plenty of playing time all over the infield if he was traded here. Devers gets some days off or Dh's on certain days. Pedrioa gets managed with a lot of days off with his knees, even Xander gets more days off instead of playing through injuries. I'd personally like Martinez for LF Fenway. Maybe he DH's more on road games and you add Rusney Castillo to the roster.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2017 23:52:04 GMT -5
Why do the Cubs want Bradley? They have too many positional players and need to trade some. I can see a Porcello for Schwarber trade making sense. ERod is who I bet they want,but I can't trade him. They can talk about loving Schwarber, but the guy is a DH. Maybe pay 5 million of Porcello yearly salary.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 18, 2017 0:04:35 GMT -5
Why do the Cubs want Bradley? They have too many positional players and need to trade some. I can see a Porcello for Schwarber trade making sense. ERod is who I bet they want,but I can't trade him. They can talk about loving Schwarber, but the guy is a DH. Maybe pay 5 million of Porcello yearly salary. None of their players are best equipped to handle CF besides Almora Jr. They probably want Amora to take the next step, but I wouldn't count on it if I'm Theo. Theo loves JBJ and he drafted him all the way back then.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 18, 2017 0:48:08 GMT -5
Why do the Cubs want Bradley? They have too many positional players and need to trade some. I can see a Porcello for Schwarber trade making sense. ERod is who I bet they want,but I can't trade him. They can talk about loving Schwarber, but the guy is a DH. Maybe pay 5 million of Porcello yearly salary. None of their players are best equipped to handle CF besides Almora Jr. They probably want Amora to take the next step, but I wouldn't count on it if I'm Theo. Theo loves JBJ and he drafted him all the way back then. He's a top prospect that just hit .298, a year after hitting over .300 hundred in the minors. If you get Bradley he has no where to play, as his bat looks like its made for CF. Good average but little power. He's dirt cheap for year, seems perfect for a team like the Cubs that are like us with a ton of players that need to get paid. Trading Schwarber for pitching makes sense, as they could have Happ play the OF full-time.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 20, 2017 11:45:10 GMT -5
I don't get the fit for Bradley either. Almora probably isn't a star but they don't need a star in center given the rest of the lineup.
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